July 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT has fallen back to 16.5, the fourth week average was 15.8 which was 0.5 above normal. It may now finish around that value as there isn't much further downward pressure to come.

MAX 33.0, MIN 6.6 (probably both set now, will check today as Mullingar shows 8.1 as this morning's low).

PRC has only struggled up to 38% with the fourth week average 83% of normal. JPmarn's 45% "hammer" looks ominous for the field now. (an outcome 38 to 52 per cent will invoke reduced minimum progression).

SUN has fallen to 90% after a rather cloudy 58.5% average for week four. That is about where I would expect SUN to finish the month, if it doesn't fall slightly.

Highest minimum so far of 17.4 will need to be checked these coming days with fairly warm nights possible in some places.

______________

August contest thread will appear overnight (Irish time) for your weekend considerations. I hope to include a "real time" short range bonus question to test forecasting skills.

appledrop

Min reduced slightly to 6.4 at Mt. Dillion yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Preliminary Scoring July 2022

The scoring is based on these estimates (high min could edge up on 31st):

__________________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus __ Totals

___ estimated values_16.6_33.0_6.4_045_085 __ 17.4

Gonzo _____________18 _ 20 _ 17 _ 07 _ 05 __ 02 ______ 69

200motels ___ (-4) __ 23 _ 19 _ 15 _ 08 _ 07 __ 07 _79-4= 75

adam240610 _______ 23 _ 13 _ 05 _ 09 _ 00 __ 04 ______ 54

MrSkinner __________23 _ 08 _ 06 _ 04 _ 05 __ 08 ______ 54

sryanbruen _________24 _ 18 _ 17 _ 08 _ 07 __ 08 ______ 82

Dacogawa __________25 _ 04 _ 06 _ 05 _ 03 __ 04 ______ 47

Jpmarn ____________ 24 _ 13 _ 11 _ 15 _ 01 __ 06 ______ 70

Tae laidir ___________24 _ 10 _ 08 _ 09 _ 04 __ 08 ______ 63

Joe Public __________ 23 _ 17 _ 19 _ 10 _ 01 __ 00 ______ 70

waterways _________ 22 _ 15 _ 03 _ 02 _ 08 __ 00 ______ 50

Artane2002 ________ 22 _ 11 _ 11 _ 08 _ 06 __ 09 ______ 67

___ Con Sensus _____ 22 _ 10 _ 11 _ 07 _ 05 __ 08 ______ 63

Appledrop __________22 _ 03 _ 12 _ 04 _ 08 __ 07 ______ 56

Danno _____________21 _ 17 _ 20 _ 12 _ 02 __ 06 ______ 78

Kindred Spirit _______ 21 _ 06 _ 17 _ 03 _ 05 __ 10 ______ 62

Pauldry ____________ 20 _ 09 _ 13 _ 03 _ 05 __ 10 ______ 60

Mr stonewall ________20 _ 04 _ 07 _ 04 _ 05 __ 02 ______ 42

Dasa29 ____________19 _ 06 _ 05 _ 04 _ 05 __ 07 ______ 46

Bsal ______________ 17 _ 15 _ 18 _ 08 _ 00 __ 09 ______ 67

M.T. Cranium _______ 17 _ 01 _ 11 _ 04 _ 06 __ 05 ______ 44

john mac __________ 17 _ 00 _ 02 _ 02 _ 06 __ 01 ______ 28

DOCARCH _________ 16 _ 08 _ 01 _ 08 _ 05 __ 03 ______ 41

___ NormaL ________14 _ 00 _ 05 _ 02 _ 07 __ 09 ______ 37

Tazio*___ (-10) _____14 _ 13 _ 20 _ 00 _ 05 __ 05 _ 57-10=47

_________________________

*Note: Tazio entered later than penalty shown, but as an occasional entrant this will make no difference to the contest scoring, also that entry did not factor into consensus, nor did it affect minimum progression scoring for regular entrants.

Note also, MAX, MIN and PRC are scored from minimum progression. PRC boosts are reduced as JPmarn scored within the cutoff zone of 13/15 or higher, meaning that PRC scoring boosts are reduced by 50%.

This preliminary scoring will be adjusted whenever better data are available.

==================

(actual forecasts)

Table of forecasts for July 2022

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ High Min

Gonzo _____________ 17.3 _ 31.4 _ 4.9 _ 083 _ 108 __ 19.2

200motels ___ (-4) __ 16.8 _ 30.0 _ 4.8 _ 081 _ 099 __ 16.8

adam240610 _______ 16.8 _ 28.8 _ 4.0 _ 077 _ 135 __ 18.4

MrSkinner __________16.8 _ 28.1 _ 4.2 _ 090 _ 110 __ 17.9

sryanbruen _________16.7 _ 29.5 _ 4.9 _ 080 _ 100 __ 17.9

Dacogawa __________16.6 _ 27.9 _ 4.2 _ 088 _ 120 __ 18.4

Jpmarn ____________ 16.5 _ 28.8 _ 4.5 _ 045 _ 130 __ 18.1

Tae laidir ___________16.5 _ 28.5 _ 4.4 _ 077 _ 115 __ 16.9

Joe Public __________ 16.4 _ 29.2 _ 5.1 _ 075 _ 130 __ 19.9

waterways _________ 16.3 _ 29.0 _ 3.8 _ 098 _ 097 __ 20.0

Artane2002 ________ 16.3 _ 28.6 _ 4.5 _ 080 _ 105 __ 17.6

___ Con Sensus _____ 16.3 _ 28.5 _ 4.5 _ 083 _ 110 __ 17.9

Appledrop __________16.3 _ 27.5 _ 4.6 _ 090 _ 095 __ 18.0

Danno _____________16.2 _ 29.2 _ 5.4 _ 065 _ 125 __ 16.7

Kindred Spirit _______ 16.2 _ 28.0 _ 4.9 _ 093 _ 108 __ 17.5

Pauldry ____________ 16.1 _ 28.4 _ 4.7 _ 093 _ 110 __ 17.5

Mr stonewall ________16.1 _ 27.8 _ 4.3 _ 091 _ 110 __ 16.1

Dasa29 ____________16.0 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 110 __ 18.0

Bsal ______________ 15.8 _ 29.0 _ 5.0 _ 080 _ 133 __ 17.0

M.T. Cranium _______ 15.8 _ 27.4 _ 4.5 _ 090 _ 103 __ 18.2

john mac __________ 15.8 _ 27.0 _ 3.7 _ 098 _ 105 __ 15.8

DOCARCH _________ 15.7 _ 28.1 _ 3.2 _ 080 _ 110 __ 16.2

___ NormaL ________15.5 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 17.8

Tazio _____________ 17.7 _ 28.7 _ 5.5 _ 110 _ 110 __ 16.5

______________________

Note: Tazio entered later than penalty shown, but as an occasional entrant this will make no difference to the contest scoring, also that entry did not factor into consensus, nor did it affect minimum progression scoring for regular entrants.

M.T. Cranium

Confirming that IMT was 16.6 and PRC around 50%. Will confirm all data tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium

I notice that there are two confusing extra lines of text left over in the scoring table above. If any mod could remove the first two lines so that the table title becomes "Preliminary scoring for July 2022" that would be helpful. I was going to produce final scores now but apparently the MS won't be along until tomorrow, so have a look tomorrow afternoon for that, in addition to the annual update.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed scoring for July 2022

The MS has confirmed most of the values used and slight changes were required for PRC and SUN but scores remained almost the same, the higher outcome for PRC gave Danno one extra point and most of the field gained one point for SUN compared to preliminary scoring.

You can see the actual forecasts a few posts back with the Preliminary scoring table. This one has been re-ordered into scoring ranks. Congrats to sryanbruen, Danno and 200motels for leading the way ... annual scoring and category scoring have been updated below.

__________________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus __ Totals

__ confirmed values _ 16.6_33.0_6.4_051_088 _ 17.4

sryanbruen _________24 _ 18 _ 17 _ 08 _ 08 __ 08 ______ 83

Danno _____________21 _ 17 _ 20 _ 13 _ 03 __ 06 ______ 80

200motels ___ (-4) __ 23 _ 19 _ 15 _ 08 _ 08 __ 07 _80-4= 76

Jpmarn ____________24 _ 13 _ 11 _ 15 _ 02 __ 06 ______ 71

Joe Public __________23 _ 17 _ 19 _ 10 _ 02 __ 00 ______ 71

Gonzo _____________18 _ 20 _ 17 _ 07 _ 06 __ 02 ______ 70

Artane2002 ________ 22 _ 11 _ 11 _ 08 _ 07 __ 09 ______ 68

Bsal ______________ 17 _ 15 _ 18 _ 08 _ 01 __ 09 ______ 68

Tae laidir ___________24 _ 10 _ 08 _ 09 _ 05 __ 08 ______ 64

___ Con Sensus _____ 22 _ 10 _ 11 _ 07 _ 06 __ 08 ______ 64

Kindred Spirit _______ 21 _ 06 _ 17 _ 03 _ 06 __ 10 ______ 63

Pauldry ____________ 20 _ 09 _ 13 _ 03 _ 06 __ 10 ______ 61

Appledrop __________22 _ 03 _ 12 _ 04 _ 09 __ 07 ______ 57

adam240610 _______ 23 _ 13 _ 05 _ 09 _ 01 __ 04 ______ 55

MrSkinner __________23 _ 08 _ 06 _ 04 _ 06 __ 08 ______ 55

waterways _________ 22 _ 15 _ 03 _ 02 _ 09 __ 00 ______ 51

Dacogawa __________25 _ 04 _ 06 _ 05 _ 04 __ 04 ______ 48

Dasa29 ____________19 _ 06 _ 05 _ 04 _ 06 __ 07 ______ 47

M.T. Cranium _______ 17 _ 01 _ 11 _ 04 _ 06 __ 05 ______ 44

Mr stonewall ________20 _ 04 _ 07 _ 04 _ 06 __ 02 ______ 43

DOCARCH __________16 _ 08 _ 01 _ 08 _ 06 __ 03 ______ 42

___ NormaL ________14 _ 00 _ 05 _ 02 _ 08 __ 09 ______ 38

john mac __________ 17 _ 00 _ 02 _ 02 _ 07 __ 01 ______ 29

Tazio*___ (-10) _____14 _ 13 _ 20 _ 00 _ 06 __ 05 _ 58-10=48

*Tazio scored at a lower late penalty than should be applied from date of entry, as Tazio had no other entries and this won't affect scoring. MAX, MIN and PRC were scored from minimum progression and for PRC there was a reduced boost as JPmarn had a high enough raw score to reduce other boosts.

_________________________

Annual Scoring Summary Jan to July 2022

The table continues to be ordered by total score. This will change to best 7/9 in September as we get closer to the final stages of the contest. Next month best 6/7 will change to best 6/8 to prepare for that eventual format (contest is decided on best 10/12).

Congrats to Appledrop for continuing to lead the way, but the top scorers in general did not do as well in July as some of the chase pack so the scoring race has tightened up considerably as a result.

Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER _____ Jan_Feb_Mar _Apr _May_Jun _Jul _TOTAL _ Best 6/7 (rank) (prev)

_01 _(01) __Appledrop _________ 67 _ 76 _ 55 _ 68 _79 _ 89 _ 57 __ 491 __ 436 (1) _ (1)

01.9_(01.9)___ Con Sensus _____ 80 _ 70 _ 56 _ 77 _61 _ 70 _ 64 __ 478 __ 422 (1.7)_(1.9)

_02 _(04) __ Bsal _____________ 61 _ 67 _ 69 _ 68 _73 _ 71 _ 68 __ 477 __ 416 (3) _(t5)

_03 _(06) __ Tae laidir _________ 70 _ 77 _ 52 _ 66 _76 _ 64 _ 64 __ 469 __ 417 (2) _ (3)

_04 _ (05) __Pauldry ___________78 _ 77 _ 57 _ 55 _64 _ 75 _ 61 __ 467 __ 412 (5) _ (4)

_05 _(03) __MrSkinner _________ 63 _ 63 _ 67 _ 82 _66 _ 70 _ 55 __ 466 __ 411 (6)_ (t5)

_06 _ (02) __Mr stonewall _______67 _ 70 _ 57 _ 78 _68 _ 73 _ 43 __ 456 __ 413 (4) _ (2)

_07 _ (12) __sryanbruen ________65 _ 58 _ 49 _ 67 _65 _ 67 _ 83 __ 454 __ 405 (7)_(t12)

_08 _ (11) __Kindred Spirit ______80 _ 66 _ 48 _ 69 _55 _ 63 _ 63 __ 444 __ 396 (8) _ (8)

_09 _ (13) __Artane2002 _______ 59 _ 70 _ 55 _ 75 _60 _ 51 _ 68 __ 438 __ 387 (12) _ (14)

_10_(t14) __Gonzo ____________43 _ 49 _ 67 _ 78 _65 _ 63 _ 70 __ 435 __ 392 (9)_(t12)

_11_ (t07) __DOCARCH ________ 78 _ 50 _ 47 _ 77 _61 _ 78 _ 42 __ 433 __ 391 (t10) _ (7)

_12 _ (10) __dacogawa _________78 _ 63 _ 58 _ 50 _56 _ 77 _ 48 __ 430 __ 382 (14)_ (t9)

_13 _ (11) __john mac__________82 _ 53 _ 69 _ 54 _54 _ 73 _ 29 __ 414 __ 385 (13)_ (t11)

_14 _(t14) __Dasa29 ___________72 _ 50 _ 50 _ 65 _65 _ 63 _ 47 __ 412 __ 365 (t15) _ (16)

_15 _ (17) __Jpmarn ___________54 _ 55 _ 55 _ 76 _44 _ 54 _ 71 __ 409 __ 365 (t15) _ (18)

15.0_ (12.0)__ NormaL _________60 _ 57 _ 54 _ 68 _55 _ 77 _ 38 __ 409 __ 371 (14.7)_(14.5)

_16_(t18) __Joe Public _________ 50 _ 57 _ 53 _ 66 _53 _ 57 _ 71 __ 407 __ 357 (20) _(20)

_17 _ (16) __M.T. Cranium ______ 65 _ 45 _ 39 _ 81 _46 _ 79 _ 45 __ 400 __ 361 (18) _ (15)

_18 _ (t07) __sunflower3 _______ 77 _ 60 _ 61 _ 68 _66 _ 59 _ --- __ 391 __ 391 (t10)_ (t9)

_19 _ (20) __adam240610 ______ 54 _ 26 _ 54 _ 77 _47 _ 76 _ 55 __ 389 __ 363 (17) _ (17)

_20 _(t18) __waterways ________ 65_ 45 _ 47 _ 69 _54 _ 56 _ 51 __ 387 __ 342 (21) _ (19)

_21 _ (21) __Danno ___________ 30 _ 19 _ 64 _ 81 _57 _ 46 _ 80 __ 377 __ 358 (19) _(21)

_22 _ (22) __200motels ________ 57 _ 49 _ --- _ 74 _--- _ --- _ 76 __256

_23 _ (23) __Gaoth laidir _______--- _ --- _ 70 _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- __ 70

_24 _ (24) __Bazlers __________ 56 _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- __ 56

_25 _ (25) __esposito __________52 _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- __ 52

_26 _ (---) __Tazio ____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- _ --- _ 48 __ 48

==================================================

Updated category scoring January to July 2022

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS _ Total __ Adj

__ Max possible _________175 _140_140_105 _ 70 __ 70+ ____ 700 _ 700

Appledrop _____________157 _ 91 _ 84*_ 60 _ 50 __50 _____ 492 _ 491

___ Consensus _________152 _ 91 _ 78 _ 59 _ 47 __ 51*_____ 478 _ 478

Bsal __________________143 _ 95*_ 80 _ 60 _ 45 __54 _____ 477 _ 477

Tae laidir ______________152 _ 88 _ 80 _ 52 _ 46 __ 51*_____ 469 _ 469

Pauldry _______________150 _ 91 _ 90 _ 44 _ 47 __ 46 _____ 468 _ 467

MrSkinner _____________156*_ 69 _ 59 _ 80 _ 52 __50 _____ 466 _ 466

Mr Stonewall ___________138 _ 74 _100 _55 _ 46 __ 43 _____ 456 _ 456

sryanbruen ____________136 _106 _61 _ 53 _ 52 __ 46 _____ 454 _ 454

Kindred Spirit __________146 _ 84 _ 69 _ 59 _ 42 __ 44 _____ 444 _ 444

Artane2002 ___________ 147 _ 72 _ 73 _ 50 _ 42 __ 54 _____ 438 _ 438

Gonzo ________________134 _105 _60 _ 48 _ 45 __ 43 _____ 435 _ 435

DOCARCH _____________138 _ 89 _ 55 _ 63 _ 42 __ 46 _____ 433 _ 433

Dacogawa ____________ 159 _ 76 _ 67 _ 44 _ 42 __ 42 _____ 430 _ 430

John mac _____________ 153 _ 61 _ 63 _ 53 _ 45 __ 40 _____ 415 _ 414

Dasa29 _______________135 _ 85 _ 49 _ 53 _ 45 __ 48 _____ 415 _ 412

Jpmarn _______________ 127 _ 68 _ 59 _ 62*_ 47 __46 _____ 409 _ 409

__ NormaL ____________121 _ 74 _ 41 _ 63 _ 51 __ 59 _____ 409 _ 409

Joe Public______________132 _ 75 _ 80 _ 55 _ 39 __ 27 _____ 408 _ 407

M.T. Cranium __________ 132 _ 57 _ 68 _ 49 _ 46 __ 48 _____ 400 _ 400

Sunflower3 ____________122 _ 81 _ 54 _ 58 _ 36 __ 40 _____ 391 _ 391

adam240610 ___________132 _ 72 _ 62 _ 48 _ 35 __ 44 _____ 393 _ 389

waterways _____________142 _ 70 _ 39 _ 52 _ 53 __31 _____ 387 _ 387

Danno ________________107 _ 86 _ 63 _ 53 _ 30 __ 41 _____ 380 _ 377

200motels _ (4/7) ________79 _ 65 _ 33 _ 36 _ 27 __ 25 _____ 265 _ 256

Gaoth Laidir _(1/7) _______22 _ 15 _ 03 _ 11 _ 07 __ 12 ______ 70 _ 70

Bazlers _ (1/7) __________ 24 _ 07 _ 00 _ 13 _ 08 __ 04 ______ 56 _ 56

esposito _ (1/7) _________ 24 _ 17 _ 00 _ 03 _ 03 __ 05 ______ 52 _ 52

Tazio ___ (1/7) __________14 _ 13 _ 20 _ 00 _ 06 __ 05 ______ 58 _ 48

=======

In the category scoring, bold shows first place in that category, bold italic shows second, an asterisk denotes third.

As there is a tie for second in SUN there is no third place asterisk in that category.

Since there is a tie for first in the bonus category (among forecasters, Normal has a higher score), there is no bold italic designation for second, but there is an asterisk designation for third.

Normal has scores equivalent to first in Bonus, tied second in PRC.

Con Sensus has no top three scores except for a tie for third in Bonus, and in total scoring (second). Total scores are not coded however.

M.T. Cranium

If you find the annual update table wraps due to line length, set your magnification setting lower until the lines do not wrap. I have edited the table to make it less likely to wrap at normal settings but if you are much over 100% it may wrap. Fault is with the ad boxes to the right of the thread squeezing the width.