July 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119307575#Comment_119307575

I had those issues with the forecasts about a year ago, thought I had posted on two or three occasions but came back to find the post still there in the window unloaded so not visible. Never really figured out what was causing it, and it stopped happening after a while.

Anyway, as you know the main contest is best ten of twelve so you'll probably not be too affected by missing one contest.

M.T. Cranium

The website now shows that max at Mountdillon as 25.0. The high min of 14.5 was equalled on 7th.

After first week of July ...

IMT on 15.1, 0.1 above normal.

MAX 25.0

MIN 8.1 Markree 1st

PRC 43% of normal.

SUN 62.0% of normal.

High min 14.5

M.T. Cranium

New high min is 15.5 at PP on 9th. Higher opportunities await. This is the table of forecasts for just the bonus, will keep showing where the new high mins sit relative to the forecasts ...

FORECASTER _______ High min

waterways _________20.0

Joe Public __________19.9

Gonzo ____________ 19.2

adam240610 _______18.4

Dacogawa _________ 18.4

M.T. Cranium _______18.2

Jpmarn ___________ 18.1

Appledrop _________18.0

Dasa29 ___________18.0

MrSkinner _________17.9

sryanbruen ________17.9

___Con Sensus ____ 17.9

___NormaL _______ 17.8

Artane2002 _______ 17.6

Kindred Spirit _____ 17.5

Pauldry __________ 17.5

Bsal _____________ 17.0

Tae laidir _________ 16.9

200motels ________ 16.8

Danno ___________ 16.7

DOCARCH ________ 16.2

Mr stonewall ______ 16.1

john mac ________ 15.8

___ ACTUAL to 9th ____ 15.5

===================

Scoring will be a challenge with several clusters of very similar forecasts. What I will try to do is go down from ten, in pairs, leaving one zero score at the end. That has to go to either john mac or waterways, there is no mathematical solution that places anyone else "on the donkey," but anyone can be high score.

However, if the outcome was 17.9, then john mac and waterways would both get zero and I would work the system the same way just looking for the most logical break points, no matter how things break down I will try to avoid grouping anyone with existing tied pairs. Anyway, will cross that bridge when we get there, of course Con and NormaL get scored after the fact and don't enter into my decisions about how to group the scores. Now that I look at them, Con will have to score what MrSkinner and sryanbruen score, NormaL will likely make that a foursome.

Will repeat this table with successive new values of high min (john mac says hope you don't need to).

pauldry

Max now 26.2c Shannon

adam240610

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119307575#Comment_119307575

Just south of Como? Saw a huge storm that night as well, 25 will be cold by the time I'm back in Ireland!

Bsal

27.7c Phoenix Park, Dublin airport 27.2c. Anyone know the all time record for Dublin airport?

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1546605744073621508/photo/1

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119324432#Comment_119324432

I posted them in the summer thread yesterday. It's 28.7C from 2nd August 1990. 27.2C makes it the warmest day at Dublin Apt since 1990 and the 4th warmest since records began. The other 2 days were in July 1983 and July 1989.

sunflower3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119323480#Comment_119323480

Lake Garda, southern end. Northern Italy having a long hot spell. I see v high temps are forecast there for next week also.

pauldry

Is there going to be a flash contest for the highest temperature in Ireland and the highest in the UK in the coming days? Would be interested to hear everyone's guesses and what our consensus would be.

M.T. Cranium

Yes I will post the flash contest soon. Separate thread.

High min looks to have moved up to around 17 C. Will post the adjusted table of entries with the new value tomorrow when confirmed.

M.T. Cranium

High min 15.8 (Johnstown Castle), slight increase but held back by slight cooling at other locations that had 16-17 going into the evening hours, ended up dropping below 15 at midnight (day runs to 0100h due to daylight savings also). The change is so minor that I won't repeat the table above, and also higher values are expected by the weekend into Monday.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 16.0, second week average 16.8 (1.4 above normal). Will rapidly approach 17.0 then perhaps fall back gradually towards low 16s.

MAX 25.0, MIN 7.1 (edit)

PRC now down to 29% with second week quite dry (13% of normal). Will be running below most if not all forecasts to near the end, it would seem.

SUN up to 102% with the second week measuring 141% (844/600). No clear signal for this to go either way from the current near normal average.

High Min for bonus 15.8 so far. Much higher values are quite possible by Monday-Tuesday.

pauldry

I thought Mullingar had a min of 7 a couple of nights ago MTC. Maybe someone could verify.

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343624#Comment_119343624

Thanks, I didn't spot that and it was 7.1, checked the other usual suspects and they were all higher.

Will edit in a change there.

pauldry

Markree is having an attempt tonight (during the "irish" heatwave) at beating that. Its 10c at midnight

M.T. Cranium

Our highest MIN forecast was 5.4 from Danno, so minimum progression may be required there.

We have one MAX forecast above 30 (gonzo has 31.4, 200motels has 30.0).

While a warm and dry month was generally foreseen, this coming heat wave was a bit outside the general expectation, assuming that we do find it producing values near 30. The main question for MAX scoring may be whether or not one of those top two forecasts captures the "reduced minimum progression" hammer to inflict on the rest of us, that requires a raw score of 18 to 20 (which means coming within 0.2). Oddly, we will all be spared the hammer from 30.3 to 31.1 (or 31.7+). I will shape the minimum progression in some fair manner if one of the two high forecasts is quite close. There may be other gaps that open up lower than 30, I didn't study that very closely.

Also Jpmarn at 45% and Danno at 65% have potential hammers to drop on us in the PRC scoring which will need help if there isn't quite a bit of rain in the second half of July. Those hammers will fall if outcomes are 38-52 or 58-72 per cent. We will escape if PRC ends up 53 to 57 (everyone would then get the equal mercy scoring treatment).

appledrop

So our new max is 29.3 today at Phoneix Park which we all expect to be beaten tomorrow.

At 9pm, it's 25 degrees here in NCD, unbelievable, like being back in Lanzorate.

Gonzo

Still 24C here at Dunshaughlin, 10.30pm. This is definitely a record for here for this late in the day.

appledrop

We also have a new Max Min, 16.3 yesterday at Mace Head.

Strange one that it's max was only 21 compared to everywhere else but obviously just more consistent temperature overall.

I really thought last night/this morning would give us new Max Min near 20 as so hot in Dublin, 23 degrees at 12am but it looks like there was a cold blip around 5am/6am when temperatures dropped back to about 14 degrees.

M.T. Cranium

16.8 at Roches Point min for today could replace that. Expect to find some new high mins by Tuesday morning, question being whether they can survive to 0100h (Wed) which is the end of the 24h day used for "yesterday's weather" and the setting of daily extremes.

Today's max probably went past the high bar set by Gonzo, which will mean standard minimum progression for all.

Gonzo

The funny thing is I knew this heat had to happen during this July, based on the melting pot that was bubbling away all June in the med as the heat was trapped there for weeks on end and about to boil over as the Atlantic/Greenland lows constantly kept it there for so long. The pot was going to overflow at some point and it was only a matter of a few weeks and sure it did over the past week. When I put my max temperature into the July competition I was going to go with 1C higher but thought it would just look like a joke or too unnatural. However I didn't expect a 33.1C in Dublin that's truly exceptional and what makes today special.

M.T. Cranium

MAX 33.0 (according to yesterday's weather)

high MIN now 17.4 (Casement, 18th)

FORECASTER _______ High min

waterways _________20.0

Joe Public __________19.9

Gonzo ____________ 19.2

adam240610 _______18.4

Dacogawa _________ 18.4

M.T. Cranium _______18.2

Jpmarn ___________ 18.1

Appledrop _________18.0

Dasa29 ___________18.0

MrSkinner _________17.9

sryanbruen ________17.9

___Con Sensus ____ 17.9

___NormaL _______ 17.8

Artane2002 _______ 17.6

Kindred Spirit _____ 17.5

Pauldry __________ 17.5

__ ACTUAL to 18th ___ 17.4

Bsal _____________ 17.0

Tae laidir _________ 16.9

200motels ________ 16.8

Danno ___________ 16.7

DOCARCH ________ 16.2

Mr stonewall ______ 16.1

john mac ________ 15.8

sryanbruen

Confirmation the 33.0C is correct.

https://twitter.com/meteireann/status/1549313626674167808?s=21&t=V3J4kSe0zIBn4TBpieL65A

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT 16.7 with the third week average 18.1 which is 2.4 above normal.

MAX 33.0, MIN 7.1

PRC 22% of normal, the past week essentially dry apart from Malin Head which was responsible for most of the meagre 8% average.

SUN at 100% with this past week 98.8% (593/600).

High min 17.4, there was a warmer night but it got reduced by that day's evening temps.

Would say we finish somewhere around this ...

16.2 _ 33.0 _ 6.0 _ 050 _ 100 _ 17.4

(slight chance of a bit higher value for the high min, also need to check the stats at end of month to verify it)

Jpmarn

For the Bonus question where did you get the NormaL figure of 17.8°C from?

M.T. Cranium

It's just an estimate, based on a normal distribution and aided to some extent by other data sets to establish what a reasonable answer to the question would be, the question being, if you took this stat of highest minimum for thirty years, what would the average be. Do you think it's too high or too low or maybe right on? I would say if it is in error it might be a touch high. But I've seen higher minima than 18 in past years. We have had this question before too. If sryanbruen has any insights into more precise ways of assigning NormaL max and min values as a general rule, I would welcome that, I am always estimating these values although it's perhaps easier for MAX and MIN than this high min statistic.

It should be kept in mind too that the "normal" for this would be the average of extreme values at 25 different locations so it doesn't mean that every location would normally have a high minimum of 17.8. Any given location would have a lower value than the average extreme, if let's say Roches Point had an average of 19 then the average for all stations participating would have to be 19 or higher. Those other stations might not average anywhere near 19 themselves but chances would increase that one of them might beat the usually warmest location (but if that warmest location was a lot warmer then the average extreme would converge on its own average). As in, the average of the highest overnight low of Dublin and New York City in July would be more or less the average for New York City, Dublin would rarely improve on it. But if it were the average for Cork and Shannon perhaps each would have an equal chance so it would be higher than either average.

Jpmarn

I think overnight temperatures didn’t fall 18 or 19°C at some stations but have lows recorded on the late evening hours of the following night. Despite the hot spell and some forecast of low temperatures of excess of 20°C it only managed 17.4°C at Casement. I don’t remember that any minimum temperatures of excess of 20°C ever recorded in Ireland especially in recent years. I do remember a minimum reading of 19°C recorded at Shannon Airport quite a number of years ago.

M.T. Cranium

I think you're right, there may have been a reading like 19.1 or 19.2 for this same contest bonus question a few years ago. The highest CET minimum is 19.5 (20 July 2016). This recent heat wave set a second highest value of 18.9. The CET is the average of three locations and I think the UK record is around 24 C.

appledrop

We have a new min 6.6 yesterday at Dublin airport.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119379338#Comment_119379338

Valentia Observatory managed it on 2 consecutive nights in July 2021 which were the first of their kind since August 2001. Posted this last year and in the 2022 heat spike thread but here it is again. All the tropical nights recorded in Ireland since 1961.