July 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for July, 2022. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.5 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during July.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during July (see 2 above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during July.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during July

6. BONUS _ Predict the highest minimum temperature at any location (see part 2 for eligible locations). We won't ask for locations or dates on this, summer time and the scoring is easy.

My forecasts, and Normal ...

M.T. Cranium _______ 15.8 _ 27.4 _ 4.5 _ 090 _ 103 __ 18.2

NormaL ___________ 15.5 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 17.8

Deadline (as usual) is 0300h Friday 1st of July, with late penalties of one point every 4h to 1500h 2nd, then one point per hour.

Good luck!

Bsal

Bsal ___________ 15.8 _ 29.0 _ 5.0 _ 80 _ 133 __ 17.0

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _______ 16.7 _ 29.5 _ 4.9 _ 080 _ 100 __ 17.9

Artane2002

Artane2002 ___________ 16.3 _ 28.6 _ 4.5 _ 080 _ 105 __ 17.6

dasa29

Dasa29 ___________ 16.0 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 110 __ 18.0

Gonzo

Gonzo _______ 17.3 _ 31.4 _ 4.9 _ 083 _ 108 __ 19.2

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _______ 15.7 _ 28.1 _ 3.2 _ 080 _ 110 __ 16.2

John mac

john mac ___________ 15.8 _ 27.0 _ 3.7 _ 98 _ 105 __ 15.8

appledrop

Appledrop__16.3___27.5__4.6__90__95__18.0

waterways

waterways ___________ 16.3 _ 29.0 _ 3.8 _ 98 _ 97 __ 20.0

adam240610

adam240610_ 16.8 _ 28.8_ 4.0 _ 77 _ 135 __ 18.4

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall____16.1___27.8___4.3____91___110____16.1

Danno

Danno ___________ 16.2 _ 29.2 _ 5.4 _ 65 _ 125 __ 16.7

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 16.2 ___ 28 ___ 4.9 ___ 93 ___ 108 ___ 17.5

mrskinner

Skinner____16.8____28.1____4.2____90____110____17.9

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ________ 16.5 _ 28.5 _ 4.4 _ 77 _ 115 __ 16.9

pauldry

Pauldry________ 16.1 _ 28.4 _ 4.7 _ 93 _ 110 __ 17.5

Joe Public

Joe Public _______ 16.4 _ 29.2 _ 5.1 _ 75 _ 130 __ 19.9

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ___________ 16.5 _ 28.8 _ 4.5 _ 45 _ 130 __ 18.1

dacogawa

Dacogawa__16.6___27.9__4.2__88__120__18.4

200motels

200motels 16.8 _ 30.0 _ 4.8 _ 081 _ 99 __ 16.8

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for July 2022

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ High Min

Gonzo _____________ 17.3 _ 31.4 _ 4.9 _ 083 _ 108 __ 19.2

200motels ___ (-4) __ 16.8 _ 30.0 _ 4.8 _ 081 _ 099 __ 16.8

adam240610 _______ 16.8 _ 28.8 _ 4.0 _ 077 _ 135 __ 18.4

MrSkinner __________16.8 _ 28.1 _ 4.2 _ 090 _ 110 __ 17.9

sryanbruen _________16.7 _ 29.5 _ 4.9 _ 080 _ 100 __ 17.9

Dacogawa __________16.6 _ 27.9 _ 4.2 _ 088 _ 120 __ 18.4

Jpmarn ____________ 16.5 _ 28.8 _ 4.5 _ 045 _ 130 __ 18.1

Tae laidir ___________16.5 _ 28.5 _ 4.4 _ 077 _ 115 __ 16.9

Joe Public __________ 16.4 _ 29.2 _ 5.1 _ 075 _ 130 __ 19.9

waterways _________ 16.3 _ 29.0 _ 3.8 _ 098 _ 097 __ 20.0

Artane2002 ________ 16.3 _ 28.6 _ 4.5 _ 080 _ 105 __ 17.6

___ Con Sensus _____ 16.3 _ 28.5 _ 4.5 _ 083 _ 110 __ 17.9

Appledrop __________16.3 _ 27.5 _ 4.6 _ 090 _ 095 __ 18.0

Danno _____________16.2 _ 29.2 _ 5.4 _ 065 _ 125 __ 16.7

Kindred Spirit _______ 16.2 _ 28.0 _ 4.9 _ 093 _ 108 __ 17.5

Pauldry ____________ 16.1 _ 28.4 _ 4.7 _ 093 _ 110 __ 17.5

Mr stonewall ________16.1 _ 27.8 _ 4.3 _ 091 _ 110 __ 16.1

Dasa29 ____________16.0 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 110 __ 18.0

Bsal ______________ 15.8 _ 29.0 _ 5.0 _ 080 _ 133 __ 17.0

M.T. Cranium _______ 15.8 _ 27.4 _ 4.5 _ 090 _ 103 __ 18.2

john mac __________ 15.8 _ 27.0 _ 3.7 _ 098 _ 105 __ 15.8

DOCARCH _________ 15.7 _ 28.1 _ 3.2 _ 080 _ 110 __ 16.2

___ NormaL ________15.5 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 17.8

_________________________

Our group consensus is warm, dry and sunny. Let's hope so.

Tazio

Tazio ___________ 17.7 _ 28.7 _ 5.5 _ 110 _ 110 __ 16.5

(Sorry if late to the party)

EDIT : I am .. mods please delete my post.

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119288046#Comment_119288046

I'll score it for you and let you know how it does, as you aren't eligible for the annual contest the late penalty aspect is beside the point.

M.T. Cranium

New high minimum was 13.8 at Shannon on 5th.

M.T. Cranium

High min now 14.5 (Phoenix Park)

DOCARCH

25.1c at Mount Dillon yesterday.

pauldry

So if Mt Dillon is 25c the next 2 days does that mean its a heatwave?

sunflower3

My entry didn't post.....I will have to sit this one out!

I am on holidays in northern Italy for the last 2 weeks. It's been very hot here. Thunderstorms last night. Looking forward to some decent weather when we get home!

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119307239#Comment_119307239

I think it needs to be 5 days.

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119307575#Comment_119307575

Sunflower we have gone to Lake Garda for years, the thunderstorms are epic, love them!

We went for Lanzorate instead this year which was a better choice with baby as cool breeze everyday + not too hot about 27 max.

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119307575#Comment_119307575

I had those issues with the forecasts about a year ago, thought I had posted on two or three occasions but came back to find the post still there in the window unloaded so not visible. Never really figured out what was causing it, and it stopped happening after a while.

Anyway, as you know the main contest is best ten of twelve so you'll probably not be too affected by missing one contest.

M.T. Cranium

The website now shows that max at Mountdillon as 25.0. The high min of 14.5 was equalled on 7th.

After first week of July ...

IMT on 15.1, 0.1 above normal.

MAX 25.0

MIN 8.1 Markree 1st

PRC 43% of normal.

SUN 62.0% of normal.

High min 14.5

M.T. Cranium

New high min is 15.5 at PP on 9th. Higher opportunities await. This is the table of forecasts for just the bonus, will keep showing where the new high mins sit relative to the forecasts ...

FORECASTER _______ High min

waterways _________20.0

Joe Public __________19.9

Gonzo ____________ 19.2

adam240610 _______18.4

Dacogawa _________ 18.4

M.T. Cranium _______18.2

Jpmarn ___________ 18.1

Appledrop _________18.0

Dasa29 ___________18.0

MrSkinner _________17.9

sryanbruen ________17.9

___Con Sensus ____ 17.9

___NormaL _______ 17.8

Artane2002 _______ 17.6

Kindred Spirit _____ 17.5

Pauldry __________ 17.5

Bsal _____________ 17.0

Tae laidir _________ 16.9

200motels ________ 16.8

Danno ___________ 16.7

DOCARCH ________ 16.2

Mr stonewall ______ 16.1

john mac ________ 15.8

___ ACTUAL to 9th ____ 15.5

===================

Scoring will be a challenge with several clusters of very similar forecasts. What I will try to do is go down from ten, in pairs, leaving one zero score at the end. That has to go to either john mac or waterways, there is no mathematical solution that places anyone else "on the donkey," but anyone can be high score.

However, if the outcome was 17.9, then john mac and waterways would both get zero and I would work the system the same way just looking for the most logical break points, no matter how things break down I will try to avoid grouping anyone with existing tied pairs. Anyway, will cross that bridge when we get there, of course Con and NormaL get scored after the fact and don't enter into my decisions about how to group the scores. Now that I look at them, Con will have to score what MrSkinner and sryanbruen score, NormaL will likely make that a foursome.

Will repeat this table with successive new values of high min (john mac says hope you don't need to).

pauldry

Max now 26.2c Shannon

adam240610

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119307575#Comment_119307575

Just south of Como? Saw a huge storm that night as well, 25 will be cold by the time I'm back in Ireland!

Bsal

27.7c Phoenix Park, Dublin airport 27.2c. Anyone know the all time record for Dublin airport?

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1546605744073621508/photo/1

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119324432#Comment_119324432

I posted them in the summer thread yesterday. It's 28.7C from 2nd August 1990. 27.2C makes it the warmest day at Dublin Apt since 1990 and the 4th warmest since records began. The other 2 days were in July 1983 and July 1989.

sunflower3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119323480#Comment_119323480

Lake Garda, southern end. Northern Italy having a long hot spell. I see v high temps are forecast there for next week also.

pauldry

Is there going to be a flash contest for the highest temperature in Ireland and the highest in the UK in the coming days? Would be interested to hear everyone's guesses and what our consensus would be.

M.T. Cranium

Yes I will post the flash contest soon. Separate thread.

High min looks to have moved up to around 17 C. Will post the adjusted table of entries with the new value tomorrow when confirmed.

M.T. Cranium

High min 15.8 (Johnstown Castle), slight increase but held back by slight cooling at other locations that had 16-17 going into the evening hours, ended up dropping below 15 at midnight (day runs to 0100h due to daylight savings also). The change is so minor that I won't repeat the table above, and also higher values are expected by the weekend into Monday.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 16.0, second week average 16.8 (1.4 above normal). Will rapidly approach 17.0 then perhaps fall back gradually towards low 16s.

MAX 25.0, MIN 7.1 (edit)

PRC now down to 29% with second week quite dry (13% of normal). Will be running below most if not all forecasts to near the end, it would seem.

SUN up to 102% with the second week measuring 141% (844/600). No clear signal for this to go either way from the current near normal average.

High Min for bonus 15.8 so far. Much higher values are quite possible by Monday-Tuesday.

pauldry

I thought Mullingar had a min of 7 a couple of nights ago MTC. Maybe someone could verify.

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119343624#Comment_119343624

Thanks, I didn't spot that and it was 7.1, checked the other usual suspects and they were all higher.

Will edit in a change there.

pauldry

Markree is having an attempt tonight (during the "irish" heatwave) at beating that. Its 10c at midnight

M.T. Cranium

Our highest MIN forecast was 5.4 from Danno, so minimum progression may be required there.

We have one MAX forecast above 30 (gonzo has 31.4, 200motels has 30.0).

While a warm and dry month was generally foreseen, this coming heat wave was a bit outside the general expectation, assuming that we do find it producing values near 30. The main question for MAX scoring may be whether or not one of those top two forecasts captures the "reduced minimum progression" hammer to inflict on the rest of us, that requires a raw score of 18 to 20 (which means coming within 0.2). Oddly, we will all be spared the hammer from 30.3 to 31.1 (or 31.7+). I will shape the minimum progression in some fair manner if one of the two high forecasts is quite close. There may be other gaps that open up lower than 30, I didn't study that very closely.

Also Jpmarn at 45% and Danno at 65% have potential hammers to drop on us in the PRC scoring which will need help if there isn't quite a bit of rain in the second half of July. Those hammers will fall if outcomes are 38-52 or 58-72 per cent. We will escape if PRC ends up 53 to 57 (everyone would then get the equal mercy scoring treatment).

appledrop

So our new max is 29.3 today at Phoneix Park which we all expect to be beaten tomorrow.

At 9pm, it's 25 degrees here in NCD, unbelievable, like being back in Lanzorate.

Gonzo

Still 24C here at Dunshaughlin, 10.30pm. This is definitely a record for here for this late in the day.

appledrop

We also have a new Max Min, 16.3 yesterday at Mace Head.

Strange one that it's max was only 21 compared to everywhere else but obviously just more consistent temperature overall.

I really thought last night/this morning would give us new Max Min near 20 as so hot in Dublin, 23 degrees at 12am but it looks like there was a cold blip around 5am/6am when temperatures dropped back to about 14 degrees.

M.T. Cranium

16.8 at Roches Point min for today could replace that. Expect to find some new high mins by Tuesday morning, question being whether they can survive to 0100h (Wed) which is the end of the 24h day used for "yesterday's weather" and the setting of daily extremes.

Today's max probably went past the high bar set by Gonzo, which will mean standard minimum progression for all.