Irish birthrate slumps 22% in a decade

y0ssar1an22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119163669#Comment_119163669

i have no real knowledge on this, but my thoughts are....birth rates seem to drop as standard of living improve. think germany and japan were the 1st 2 to report this, cos kids were viewed not as kids but as bad investments (what a warped view).

joseywhales

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119163589#Comment_119163589

I don't see where I equivocate anything? How do I know what you mean if you don't define it? "Mass immigration" is obviously subjective, so I need to know what you mean or whether it's just hyperbole. I have lived in three countries since emmigrating from Ireland, UK, Canada and the US. Perhaps I have a different perspective but one in eight is not a big deal for me, in fact I believe borders are a bit archaic, probably still required given the inequality and the fact that it allows us to exploit the developing world and support our vastly superior quality of life. However the future is absolutely a world with less well defined nationality and borders. I have my own culture, whatever that is, it is also evolving, I don't feel a need to protect it, the book of kells will still be in the trinity library for anyone to see.

Strumms

The trinity library would be full of new arrivals sleeping there if some people had their way.

” what ? A a big room just full of books ? “ 😕😟😟

joseywhales

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119163724#Comment_119163724

Like who? Which people?

chuchuchu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119163707#Comment_119163707

your advocating for no borders and wondering what mass immigration means

joseywhales

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119163748#Comment_119163748

I said they are probably still required but yeah in 500 years perhaps we could see a more homogeneous world. Mass immigration is not well defined, how many times do I need to say it. Apparently one in eight people in Ireland being a non national is considered mass immigration to some but that seems in line with other countries to me and not particularly striking.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119163432#Comment_119163432

Ireland is in 7th place in the OECD in terms of the share of immigrants in its population, with the foreign-born accounting for 17% of the total population. 46% of them arrived in the last 5 years compared with 22% on average across OECD countries.

https://www.oecd.org/migration/integration-indicators-2012/keyindicatorsbycountry/name%2C218334%2Cen.htm

Would that indication mass immigration to you? Now.. that's a report from 2012.. think of what it's like now. (I did a quick search but couldn't find anything similar for 2021.. perhaps you'd like to do the legwork?)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119162379#Comment_119162379

Just worth pointing out, for the sake of being a contrarian/devils advocate, that subsidizing child care could be viewed as an anti family policy. If you have more people working or just doing more hours because they now can afford to put the kids into childcare then you end up with everyone else having to compete with this. Others have to compete with this couple for housing. So we end up where we are today - more people working longer hours, seeing less of their children/friends/family with no real gain.

There is a minefield of unintended consequences no matter what you do. Should we be giving the same amount of paternity leave as maternity leave now? Offering parental leave to be split whatever way a couple wants?

What im getting at is that housing, because it is a necessity, has gotten to the point where it will and does, on aggregate across the economy, eat up into any progress we make regarding wages or taxes and subsidies etc etc.

There is simply a shortage. If we have 6 houses and 11 people/couples it wont matter if we increase everyones wages by a factor of 10 the price of the 6 houses are going up. It must be absolutely hellish now for single people.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119163194#Comment_119163194

Being pedantic I suppose but would it be fair to say Merkels millions of refugees were a form of mass migration?

The numbers are in the hundreds of thousands a year so it could be classed as a consistent form of mass migration even with the million excluded.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Asylum_statistics&oldid=558844

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119163751#Comment_119163751

Mass immigration is when you see a large shift in demographics over a relatively short period of time (1-2 decades). When the foreign born population spikes considerably would be a firm indication of mass immigration occurring. It's not a difficult thing to reason out.

"Mass immigration" is obviously subjective, so I need to know what you mean or whether it's just hyperbole. 

A few google searches checking the changes in immigration across Europe over the last twenty years would have shown you what mass immigration entails. Better yet, a few searches on immigration for Ireland would have shown the demographic shifts here. Come on.. Seriously?

Perhaps I have a different perspective but one in eight is not a big deal for me, in fact I believe borders are a bit archaic, probably still required given the inequality . 

Borders allow nations to protect their own citizens. I realise that you've lived abroad, but you've stayed in developed nations. Perhaps you haven't seen the quality of life in 2nd/3rd world nations, the poor standards of education, the degree of corruption, etc.. all of which encourages people to leave those regions, and travel to Western nations, in search of a better standard of living, and a fairer environment. More important though, is that perhaps you don't realise the numbers of people who wish that better life.. poor countries typically have larger populations than they can comfortably provide for, even if their economies weren't crap, and their systems weren't corrupt beyond belief.

Which is fine. I think we can all appreciate that desire. However, resources are not infinite, and no economy, especially one that supports a welfare state, can provide for unlimited numbers of people. Citizens of a country are expected to support themselves, contribute to the nation itself, and pay that extra bit to support the weakest members of our own society. However, what happens when large groups of people enter who are low-skilled, lacking in comparative education to the natives, etc? They take the lowest paying jobs, which are incredibly insecure, and considering the general rising costs involved in living in a first world nation, it's very difficult to remain socially mobile. It's difficult to improve on ones position, when you're at the bottom, and don't have the kind of disposable income to improve your position. So, what happens if and when they lose their insecure jobs, the welfare state kicks in, and... the cost to the nation rises, without any realistic expectation that these people will ever contribute enough to balance the costs involved.

And who suffers the most from all of this? Oh, sure, the working and middle classes have to pay for all of this, but it's the native poor or disadvantaged groups who fare the worst... in addition to those migrants at the bottom, without any realistic ways to change, nor any real desire to because they're subsidized by the State. Welfare dependency across generations is a thing. Controversial i know, but still hasn't been disproven.

All you need to do is look at the employment/unemployment rates of particular national groups in Ireland or in other European nations.

Borders exist to protect the native population from being required to support those non-native groups who can't/won't support themselves... although, there are heaps of other reasons why borders are important.

However the future is absolutely a world with less well defined nationality and borders

Highly unlikely. Do you know what multiculturalism and diversity encourages? Division. Migrants are not encouraged to integrate or assimilate with the host nation, but rather to retain their own national/cultural identity separate. It reinforces the impression that they are not Irish, English or whatever. It reinforces the differences between people, especially visually... which in turn, encourages tribalism to manifest. Tribalism is extremely common throughout the world, but particularly so, in 2nd/3rd world nations. Tribalism tends to promote an Us Vs Them mentality.

So.. what would that lead to?

As for nationality, we've never had the degree of nationalism that exists in other nations (especially colonial, imperial or former empires). However, both France and Germany have had recent changes politically with the electorate supporting more nationalist driven parties and agendas. Same with Sweden, and Denmark. We're going to be seeing a lot more nationalism coming from Western nations over the next few years. Not less.

Which ties into tribalism, so what happens when the native population become more nationalist, but have foreign cultures who don't integrate, and represent a drain on resources? Think of the bombings in Sweden by organised crime, the riots and white flight from French suburbs, etc. There's going to be a pushback at some point, and it's not going to be pretty.

riclad

Contraception is widely avaidable young people are choosing to have 1 or 2 children or none at all. It's not just Ireland it's the same in the UK, America. And of course houses are much more expensive than the 80s,90s, previous generations could marry at the age of 19. Ordinary working people bought a house or maybe got a council house.

We are going in the direction of Japan., property is expensive, even married couples may have one child or none. I can see no sign of any politican trying to bring Ireland back to the 90s. Yes if you look at it from a global outlook the planet right now cannot support the no of people being born

Look up global warming drought rising tempetures India water shortage food is getting more expensive we have maybe 8 years left to tackle global warming we are facing inflation and a recession plus war in Ukraine some places in some country's are now unliveable due to lack of water high temps

Look up California drought they are bringing in restrictions to reduce water use on lawns Gardens

For anyone to have children now either you are rich or have no idea what's going on in the world

the Irish economy boomed because there's plenty of people who came here to work in shops hotels etc we have hardly started here in terms of switching over to green energy sources or maybe millenials might wait and just inherit the family home

it's gen z that are really in trouble

Shoog

The chicken little great replacement fanboys are fighting a war of ideology based in the 1940's. They are living in total denial of the real and pressing crisis that all humanity is facing, a crisis of ecological collapse and species extinction. They have no answers to the survival of our species , preferring to indulge in their racist Armageddon.

Jequ0n

Finally. I have never understood the weird obsession Ireland has with its hordes of children. As if people should be grateful for others popping them out.

Hamachi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119163791#Comment_119163791

Some of the utterances in this post have a grain of truth. Others are just plain wrong.

In terms of going back to the ‘90s, Ireland’s birth rate today is higher now than it was back then. The nadir of the Irish birth rate was actually 1994, when just 48K children were born. The population only grew naturally by 17K that year. By contrast, 59K children were born last year, with natural growth of more than 25K.

Quarters 3 and 4 of 2021 saw a 30% increase in the birth rate, with all indications suggesting that this growth is continuing into 2022. Ireland is most certainly not transforming into Japan or other East Asian or continental European countries, with exceptionally low fertility rates. Japan is experiencing a true demographic winter. The population declined by over 600K last year and the proportion of people over 65 years old is almost one third of the entire population. Ireland is almost the polar opposite of Japan demographically.

This country most certainly did not boom because of people coming here to work in shops. It boomed due to inward investment, rising educational standards, and demographic bulge of young people, a shadow effect of the 1970s and 1980s baby boom. The people coming here to work in shops, mostly occurred post 2004, as the Celtic tiger economy started to wane.

You make some valid points about over population and ecology. However, as I’ve repeatedly stated, the only global region with explosive population growth in 2022, is sub-Saharan Africa. That’s where efforts should be targeted, to curb fertility rates.

Tonesjones

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119163821#Comment_119163821

The old facts and figures are racist theory.

Away with you

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119163821#Comment_119163821

Perhaps we could diversify the African, Asian and South American countries where the pressures on the environment are at their sharpest? All the eco-warrior types should be encouraged to emigrate from Europe, North America and Australia to bring their wealth of knowledge on environmental matters to those populations. A win-win for humanity. For those who are truly invested in diversification and multi-culturalism should be rubbing their hands with glee at the prospects of other nations becoming a melting pot of cultures. The prospects of a fair haired, blue eyed descendant of Norway becoming president of Nigeria, the thoughts of Jing Lee a descendant of Shanghai rising to lead the Brazilian peoples in government would be wonderful altogether, wouldn't it?

donaghs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164043#Comment_119164043

Maybe you're coming at this from an ideological position and don't want to believe that the birth rate is falling? And doesn't Japan has very different policies on immigration? All these fact are readily available in seconds on the web.

The birth date in NOT "the numbers of children born". As a population rises, its very possible more children can be born now than in 1994.

If you care to find out, "birth rate" means: the number of live births per 1,000 people in a population over a specific period of time (typically a year).

So if you care to look, Ireland's population has started to rise more rapidly from the Celtic Tiger onwards.

The "birth rate" continues to fall fall fall since the 70s. What this all means is another question. My main concern is where everyone is going to live, what impact will this have on infrastructure (transport water sewage pollution etc). We don't seem to great at planning for these changes, especially as many people refuse to believe its happening!

Japan is has "issues" with immigrants coming into their country, and how it will affect Japanese cultures etc. So they restrict it. Some shades as racism there, similar to the Chinese calling foreigners "barbarians".

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119158948#Comment_119158948

Proving once again - empty vessels do tend to make a lot of noise.

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164389#Comment_119164389

I have little problem with immigration if it meets an economic need, moving people purely for the sake of it is not what I advocate and represents a failure of society to meet peoples needs where they actually live and really want to be. Solve the problems of social inequality at its source and most migration simply fades away. Millions of Irish across the globe are testament to the occassional need to migrate for better opportunities when your own government (whether colonial or domestic) **** things up so badly that you have to move or starve.

However in terms of impacts - it takes about 10x the number of African/Asians to offset the carbon footprint of a single Irish citizen - so the real problem isn't out there, it is at home where we suck the resources of the world to feed our wasteful lifestyles.

Again I mearly point out that all your hand ringing is missing the point - Irish fertility is falling because we are better educated. if we want the same to happen in developing countries then we need to encourage education and self reliance there. It has happened in Bangladesh which now has fertility rates slightly higher than our own all down to education and free availability of contraception. If we want the immigrants to stop coming then its up to us to stop sucking their countries dry and that includes their most skilled workers who we use to prop up our high tech industries and health services. You cannot slam the gates shut to the tidal wave of immigration without addressing the root causes of why it is happening.

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119158872#Comment_119158872

If everyone in past generations had that kind of thinking, you would not exist.... Future generations will recognise, that contrary to what you think, taking on huge amounts of debt or relying on social services to put a roof over their head is a really dumb idea and move to a more European idea that having to own the roof over your head is optional.

Dyr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119163707#Comment_119163707

Ah right So you're in the redfining terms camp with a strong dash of "it is happening but its a good thing"

Next to be shaved!

Hamachi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164488#Comment_119164488

Hang on, more inaccuracies in this post.

Firstly, I was not referring to the fertility rate. My point was around the crude birth rate. Most posters on this thread clearly can’t differentiate between the two, so I was trying to keep it simple.

Secondly, I fully understand the difference between the crude birth rate and the fertility rate. I’ve already stated in a previous post that Ireland is at sub-replacement fertility and has been since the ‘90s, with a short spike between 2008-2010, when the country breached the replacement fertility threshold. The difference is that Ireland’s fertility rate has held steady at between 1.7 - 2.0 since the ‘90s, which means that we have and are averting the demographic crisis impacting many of our neighbors and advanced economies in East Asia.

Thirdly, I’m not sure what ideological standpoint you think I’m bringing here. I’m dealing in facts and hard data. The Japanese birth rate has not fallen off a cliff due to resistance to immigration. There are several complex factors including work culture, the role of women in society, and accelerated aging of the population. To compare the demographic picture in Ireland with that of Japan, is clearly nonsense.

Fourthly, are you implying that the Irish fertility rate has not experienced a similar decline due to immigration? If yes, you’re wrong. There is no data to suggest that there is a stat-dig divergence in fertility rates between indigenous Irish people and immigrants to this country. If you have data to the contrary, please link to it.

This is the problem with Boards. It’s full of people speaking with authority about subjects of which they have minimal command. Not aimed specifically at you by the way.

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164671#Comment_119164671

You do know that 1.7-2.0 is far from been a replacement rate, for that you need around 2.2 at least. Birth rates do not factor in the fact that there is still an infant mortality rate to consider and then there are factors like high rates of suicide. Ireland has fallen below a replacement rate and is in the same boat as much of Europe in terms of needing immigrant labour to plug the gap and keep the economy tricking over. The EU model suited Ireland well because it had no need to actually offer citizenship to mkost of the European workers, not so with world immigration. Restrict immigration and you instantly hit Japans Stagflation scenario. People may hate immigration but it is just about the only response open to the current government wedded to the current economic model.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164536#Comment_119164536

However in terms of impacts - it takes about 10x the number of African/Asians to offset the carbon footprint of a single Irish citizen - so the real problem isn't out there, it is at home where we suck the resources of the world to feed our wasteful lifestyles.

Yet some are advocating for them to arrive here by the bus load. The point is lost on those who advocate for mass immigration that those who arrive here don't leave their carbon footprint at 10X less (same level as from where they came from).

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164740#Comment_119164740

I am not fixated on allowing immigration - but you seem to be. My interest is in understanding the actual reality of what is happening rather than accepting piecemeal a racist interpretation of what is happening. My point here has been that your arguments are purely motivated by a racist ideology.

Hamachi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164720#Comment_119164720

Replacement level fertility is now acknowledged as 2.05 in developed economies, due to minimal infant mortality rates. The 2.2 figure is applicable to developing economies. So yes, I’m very much aware of the specifics here.

Again, immigration is not the solution for declining fertility rates. Studies have consistently shown that immigrant fertility rates converge with the local rate within one generation. In fact, in some countries the fertility rate of immigrants is even lower than that of the indigenous population.

Ireland is barely sub-replacement fertility. The rate was above replacement, as recently as a decade ago. The optimal path forward is to create the conditions for people to have the number of children they desire, which in Europe is typically 2.4-2.5.

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164768#Comment_119164768

I do not believe that the actual desired fertility rate will meet replacement rate into the future - since it ignores that fact that many people are actively choosing to have no children for multiple reasons.

Immigration may not be a desirable solution - but if you accept that then you need to accept that stagflation is our future. What is really needed is a model of society not predicated on a growing pop[ulation. We are entering that stage now and what we see going on in the global economy is a symptom of that reality.

Hamachi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164791#Comment_119164791

Fertility rates are notoriously difficult to predict. Iran fell from a fertility rate of 6 to sub-replacement fertility within a generation. Neither you nor I have a crystal ball. We’ll have to wait and see. Right now, Ireland is reasonably well positioned.

I agree with your second point. We need to move away from economic models predicated on population growth. If that reduces future immigration streams, so be it. That may be a win or a loss, depending on your ideological standpoint.

Shoog

From personal experience my far from untypical children, both educated to degree level and both below 30, are very unlikely to have a single child between them. As I said they are more typical of their generation than not so I see fertility rates falling even more dramatically over the next 20years as this generation come to dominate the demographics.

completedit

If coronavirus has thought me anything it is that humans always find a way to adapt. The demographic problem is one that will be dealt with in a manner reflective of the times. People will live out their lives normally and the challenge will become part of their lived experience. The doomsday scenario does not exist. The end of times will not be brought about by something confined to this planet.