Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122214980#Comment_122214980

They are losing support in the polls, which is basically losing votes.

Finty Lemon

Francie is probably right in that SF never really had the true support suggested by the polls. The rise in 2020 was not driven by people buying into SF policies, or believing in the quality of their candidates. It was largely a protest vote and SF was the most convenient home for those votes. I mean, are we really to believe that the electorate thought Eoin OBroin, Pearse Doherty, Matt Carthy and David Cullinane had the stuff to address the big issues in the country? Or that Johnny Mythen, Martin Browne and Brian Stanley were being sent to the Dail to deliver a radical legislative agenda? Not very likely, but the votes all counted.

Even SF themselves were caught on the hop with the election outcomes FFS. The problem for them this time around is that people are looking at them closely as potential leader in power, not a 'screw you' vote against the government parties.

The thought process of voters will sharpen on SF as a result. Can they deliver on all the promises and righteous anger? Vote for them and find out I suppose.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122215364#Comment_122215364

You can say all that if they fall back to pre 2020 levels in the next GE.

They are not polling below those 2020 levels (+ or - 3%)and there is still a way to go and a GE campaign to come.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122215419#Comment_122215419

But but a few posts ago you said in typical Francie critical fashion that Varadkar brought Fine Gael back down to general election levels

Hasn't Mary lou done the same,whats her excuse ?

Or are polls only relevant when they don't show a downward SF trend ?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122215467#Comment_122215467

You will have to find a post where I denied MLMD did that.
And just accept I am not here as her spokesperson.
IMO I have outlined what I think SF are doing strategy wise.

I could be wrong.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122215634#Comment_122215634

What are they doing strategy wise?

As far as I can tell, they are not doing very much at all... Other than losing support, month on month.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122215634#Comment_122215634

My point is,its something to be critical of varadkar for according to you

But apparently not something to be critical of Mary Lou for (and she's not in power)

Cén Fáth ?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122215750#Comment_122215750

Varadkar actually delivered that % in a GE. As yet MLMD has actually delivered growth in a GE.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122215750#Comment_122215750

If yu are Francie you can't be critical of anything Sinn Fein, that is impossible.

In this example he is been critical of Leo but at the same time for MLMD doing the same thing he isn' critical.

Expect gymnastics now to cover up for not been critical of MLMD

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122215784#Comment_122215784

I outlined what I think SF and therefore MLMD’s strategy is.
If not chasing a right wing vote is it, then fair play and well done MLMD.

I know you cannot cope with that but that is an issue for you.
I was critical of Leo before he took his party back to GE levels and predicted he would. My position didn’t alter.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122215100#Comment_122215100

I am not a SF member, and my goal re: the future of the country is to end the power swapping between FG and FF. If SF are not capable of doing that I will look to the next best opportunity.

Yet previously you admitted that it would be ok for SF to go into power with FF?

So it appears you want to have it every way, vote for SF to end the 'power swap', but also hand power to FF…..

Quite a hypocrisy there.

But anyway, these poll numbers should have you worried because most people favour an FF + FG government over a SF lead one, and there is no way SF can lead a government without FF or FG given the numbers.

So, yea you should be extremely worried.

Also, there are no other alternatives to a non FG or FF government then SF, unless you really think the SD's or Labour can get 50+ seats? It seems you exist in some fantasy world.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122215885#Comment_122215885

To end power swapping between two parties - FF and FG. A situation that I think has led to complacency and a toxic level of no accountability. Best evidenced during this government term.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122215759#Comment_122215759

By your logic though,Mary Lou has ended up neck and neck with Fine Gael after 13 years of them in government,SF still falling and Fine Gael rising,isn't that a nightmare ?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122216098#Comment_122216098

By my logic it is what it is.
I will say it again… I think it is wise not to chase that vote. Why would I be critical if I think they are responding correctly and not like the government who are hardening to the right on the issue?

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122216268#Comment_122216268

To be clear,you are not critical of the leadership team of the main opposition party,your preferred party, who find themselves equal in the polls with Fine Gael after 13 years of the latter in government ?

Yet you are critical of Fine Gael for a lesser drop in polls over the term of its government?

Thats some state of affairs to be in !

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122216082#Comment_122216082

A FFG led govt is still the most likley outcome for the next govt.

It always has been anyway, but It is now more likley than at any time in the past 2 years.

As another poster points out and according to the latest polls, most people are now actively favouring a FFG govt, vs SF being involved at all.

One question I have still to see answered from any SF supporter is; what policies do you think SF would implement that are better than those of the current govt?

Finty Lemon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122216082#Comment_122216082

The only 'power swap' in Ireland is the Sinn fein DUP stitch up in Stormont brought about by the St Andrews Agreement. It was the price the other parties paid to get extremists into the process, extracted in part exchange for recognition of support for policing. It is structural therefore can be deemed a power swap arrangement.

The transfer of power back and forth in the 2.5 party system in ROI has simply been the outcome of every election since the foundation of the state. The duopoly nature of the outcome is very common- Canada, Australia, UK, Spain, all have similar. To characteristics as a power swap is simply misleading and disrespectful to the electorate.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122216318#Comment_122216318

SF supporters don't talk about policies, so you will be waiting a while to get an answer

Zico

I might vote for Sinn Fein if AfD and Claire Daly were the alternatives.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122216323#Comment_122216323

This is so misinformed. Educate yourself.
The system in NI due to the GFA is a 'mandatory coalition'. Here are the ministers and the parties to which they belong:

First Minister	Michelle O'Neill		Sinn Féin	2024–present
Deputy First Minister	Emma Little-Pengelly		DUP	2024–present
Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs	Andrew Muir		Alliance	2024–present
Communities	Gordon Lyons		DUP	2024–present
Economy	Conor Murphy		Sinn Féin	2024–present
Education	Paul Givan		DUP	2024–present
Finance	Caoimhe Archibald		Sinn Féin	2024–present
Health	Robin Swann		UUP	2024
Infrastructure	John O'Dowd		Sinn Féin	2024–present
Justice	Naomi Long		Alliance	2024-Present

What devolved powers First Ministers have are shared equally between the two largest parties SF and the DUP.

Power therefore does not 'swap'.

P.S. Power swapped between FF and FG for the first 100 years of this state = fact. I long ago clarified this, I do not mean this as a sinister act between them. It is just a factual depiction of how it was.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122216309#Comment_122216309

I made my prediction about Varadkar as a criticism. I actually didn't say much when he delivered the return to GE numbers, it was inevitable IMO. He evetually gave up trying to up their %. Harris has upped it by a couple of percent. I predict that honeymoon will end too.

If I am correct about SF strategy I would praise them instead of criticising them. Rebuild without that horrible vote. Sit it out if that is what it takes.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122216394#Comment_122216394

It is inevitable that SF will rise again

There is no other useful home for an anti government vote

Finty Lemon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122216359#Comment_122216359

Of course its a mandatory coalition, no news there. Listing out ministers proves nothing however. The essential point is that in 2006 SF and the DUP pushed for a deal to suit each of them at the expense of the centre ground and any progress toward moderation of opinion in NI. That's how the politics played out, and predictably so. They carved out an opportunity for a power swap over First Minister, and fair play to them that's what they achieved. A power swap in actual fact.

The notion that FF and FG swapped anything kind of ignores the role of the electorate. You have to control something to swap it, and the electorate owned the mandate not any party. The Irish people made the swap, not FF or FG.

Meanwhile SF and DUP benefit from the swap system they have engineered for themselves. Fact.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122216631#Comment_122216631

Power does not 'swap'.
It is equally shared.

You are wrong at first base and doubling down doesn't say much for you.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122216082#Comment_122216082

You have said that already, but you are fine with SF going into government with either of them.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122216323#Comment_122216323

Francie yet again is being hoisted on his own petard by his very own words.

"Power swap" this, "Power swap"….

In the meantime, SF's grip on power as the main lead party with 60+ seats is crumbling in plain sight, like a slow motion car crash.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122216952#Comment_122216952

I have only been saying it will probably be necessary for several years now.

Finty Lemon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122216652#Comment_122216652

Thank you for the critique. Perhaps I haven't been clear enough in explaining the subtlety here. Power is indeed shared equally in the Stormont system in the procedural sense, which is not the point and not the issue.

However, the reality in Northern Ireland is that in order to hollow out the centre ground to their own advantage, SF and DUP conspired to change the rules in 2006, and the governments and other parties, mistakenly in my view, acceded to it. The mechanism was to change how First Minister is nominated. This as you know is the reason Michelle O'Neill is now in that position. By definition she would not be FM without St Andrews.

How is this relevant? It has meant that in the unionist community, a primary motivation for voting choice is to keep SF from the FM role. The DUP have benefitted from this. On the other side, SF now have the carrot of a SF first minister to dangle in front of the nationalist electorate, on condition of course that a monolithic voting bloc is constructed in their favour. Power is shared in NI, but SF and DUP have stitched it up that it will be swapped and shared between them. They are each others greatest asset. Party first.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122217029#Comment_122217029

Can you back up this conspiracy theory?

Finty Lemon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122217061#Comment_122217061

https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/114045/pdf/