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Sinn Fein and how do the form a government dilemma

  • 02-06-2022 6:54pm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,704 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2

    Polls have been wrong before and things can change yadda yadda, but right now SF are very likely to the party with the most seats when the next election is done and dusted in probably 2025.

    And then what?

    Obviously they will want to form a government and I am looking at the maths and it will be interesting. Obviously FG won't be called and I think the Greens are going to struggle so not worth Mary Lou's time getting them involved.

    Independent's for the most part lean to the right so that's not ideal.....

    So that leaves a few other options and the most obvious one is FF.

    I don't think a lot of SF voters would be to excited , FF will also be skeptical but I think plenty of their members wont be to upset. Yes their are many who are closer to FG but I do think their is some when it comes to economics prefer SF rather than FG.

    So assuming SF get a crack of forming a government in 2025, how do we think it ends up?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭ twin_beacon

    I think it will be FF/FG and some other smaller party or group of Independents, unless FF take the unlikely move and go into bed with SF.

    SF are always very fast to point the finger at someone else, and a minority partner in power with them would be rode for every error.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,294 ✭✭✭✭ Galwayguy35

    If the shinners get enough seats they might get the Soc Dems, Labour, and a few hard lefters to do a deal with them.

    McDonald did want to talk to FF after the last election and I remember Martin hinting at the count centre he would talk to them but then the next day he ruled it out so must have got a roasting behind the scenes from the party faithful.

    Its hard to know how many seats SF can realistically win but it will be the most interesting election result coverage in my lifetime anyway.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,453 ✭✭✭ sam t smith

    Wonder we we see more candidates like Ms. Violet-Anne Wynne and Ms. Reada Cronin next time around.

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,704 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2

    To be fair I assume SF will not be keen at all to deal with Paul Murphy and his ilk because someone like that will be near impossible to deal with, but the only downside for them when it comes to storming the next election they may eat up the likes of the social democrats /greens and leftie independents then yeah may have to consider it.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,733 ✭✭✭ 0ph0rce0

    Well he asked AND THEN WHAT? So it kind of does, maybe I read it wrong but, How is it defensive?

    Like I said, money tree. These **** give cash out like there's no tomorrow. Be it rich to the poor. They tell us we have **** all and pull billions out their hole when someone needs it (just not for the working people, the actual people who pay for everything)

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭ Bellview

    last election was voting & transfers was interesting as SF could have elected 5/6 or more TD's if they ran enough candidates and you would expect they would win more seats if an election was called tomorrow... but at the last election the SF surplus transferred (which was also a first..might be floating voter that did this) and helped elect hard left similar to ie people before profit, and even greens & social democrats gained from this... if we had an election tomorrow would SF mostly gain from this group & while this would consolidate the left may not actually help get a SF led government... but that the great thing about elections & the pr system... anything can happen

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,159 ✭✭✭ RoTelly

    SF could come close to a majority.

    IMO SD and LP will not enter gov with SF, SD may but LP definitely will not (no matter what they may say IMO)

    However both may be inclined to provide SF with confidence and supply agreement, and they may have to provide that together.

    I have a feeling that SD will only retain their co-leaders seats, while LP may be down to 3.

    I can't see FF giving SF a confidence and supply agreement if they are leaders of the opposition and the same goes for FG. Also unlike the 2016 C&SA the numbers from the next larger party will not be required.

    SF will most likely work with Left wing Independents to form a government, if they haven't gobbled up their seats. e.g. Catherine Connolly

    PBP/S, I4C and other left wing parties are ideologies whom will only work with one another, and only in a fairly broad sense IMO. So you can count them out of any government negotiations, except maybe to save face.

    That is of course going on the most recent polls.

    IMO SF will most likely be the only party to run running mates in all constituency, FG and FF may only run one candidate in each!

    IMO FF are still transfer unfriendly, FG are slightly less transfer unfriendly

    IMO the smaller parties including LP and SD will be squeezed, as will some Independents (the likes of the Healy Rae's, Lowry's, Naughten's and Grelish's will retain their seats).

    Finally it's a SF Minority government, with the potential of a majority government (depending on how lower down transfers move).

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,272 ✭✭✭ landofthetree

    Then you have the problem of the likes of Paul Murphy on the protesting against SF who are now the establishment.

    SF can't blame anybody else for the problems of the country when they are the government/establishment.

  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,917 CMod ✭✭✭✭ Nody

    Which is not unique to SF; the protest parties (left or right) have a tendency to flounder after a term or two in power when all their grandiose ideas suddenly could not deliver on their promises and all easy solution slogans turned out false. Which is why I'd prefer SF in government if for nothing else to give people a reality check (this goes for any "complaint" party in general as a side note). Having said that I also think SF are savvy enough that if they do get into power they will be more realistic in their delivery than what they promise now but I'd expect them to take a significant beating the following election.

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,067 ✭✭✭ touts

    Agree that Social Democrats Definately would. They have to go into government at least once to justify their existence. If they have the opportunity and turn it down they might as well disband there and then.

    Labour is more interesting. It depends who replaces Ivana after the next election (assuming she won't try to lead them from the Seanad because she isn't holding that Dail seat). I could see Aodhán Ó Ríordáin wanting to be in the history books for more than holding the world record for the most made up fadas in a single name.

  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 9,537 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Manach

    For conservatives there would be very little enthusism for voting for FG/FF, never mind the liberals' support, and given the likely level of economic distruption that will approach historically bleak proportions, SF might very well gain enough seats to govern with only minimal independent support.

  • Registered Users Posts: 16,703 ✭✭✭✭ VinLieger

    Agreed, I think much of SFs increases will come from rural FF votes and they will be forced to hop in bed with them. Also I reckon FG will be delighted to let them and want a turn on the opposite benches as well as let FF take the minority party blame for whatever shenanigans SF get up to.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,159 ✭✭✭ RoTelly

    FF will not be needed, and if they end up as the 2nd largest party they are not going into government, they will be happy as leader's of opposition. Imagine going into government when you have the opportunity to sit as leader of the opposition.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,703 ✭✭✭✭ VinLieger

    SF will undoubtedly be the largest party come next election and current polling suggest FF will definitely be 3rd unless there is some massive event nobody currently can foresee. They will absolutely need a smaller party as a coalition partner as I doubt they will be able to cobble together enough left wing independents to form a government based on current polling.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,699 ✭✭✭ HerrKuehn

    I think FF would want to think very carefully about going in with SF. SF are great at complaining and blaming, so when it inevitably goes wrong, FF will be on the receiving end of the blame.

  • Registered Users Posts: 7,510 ✭✭✭ StupidLikeAFox

    It would be interesting to see if sinn fein can find enough candidates, they only ran 40 or so last time out (then still complained that it was ff and fg keeping them out of government)

    If they unearth enough candidates and running mates to have an overall majority, they could end up with all sorts, and there will be scrutiny on all of the new people for sure.

    If they don't run enough candidates and don't have a coalition strategy then they will rightly be called out as hurlers on the ditch

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,159 ✭✭✭ RoTelly

    I think 2nd and 3rd is between FG and FF, it seems to swing more towards FG but that could all change. Even as the 3rd largest party FF won't want to be in gov, they might give SF a S&CA but even that is unlikely.

    I think the left wing will be squashed, I can see them retaining maybe 3 seats, with centre-left retaining 7, and the greens with 5, Independents I am not sure about, your talking 8 to 10. Total Other parties and independents 25 seats?

    If SF secure 70+ I think they will forge out a deal with SD, GP and some Indos. I suspect that GP will want to go back into government to show that they can work with all parties. So then the question is will SD take a seat in cabinet.

  • Registered Users Posts: 27,007 ✭✭✭✭ Wanderer78

    sff very likely, but it could be very stormy, if it fails badly, we potentially could swing further to the extreme's after the fact, possible further to the right, yippee!

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,271 ✭✭✭✭ DaCor

    I think the Greens will surprise people. they are primarily an Urban party and a lot of their policies are improving the situation in urban areas in terms of livability. The next GE is due in 2025 (obvious caveat applies) so a lot of the current pain points (inflation, high energy costs, housing) will have sorted themselves with housing being the obvious one that may still linger. By that time a large amount of the GP policies will have driven a lot of good changes in cities and towns around the country (improved infrastructure for pedestrians and cyclists, improved PT, lowering of pollution etc).

    I would not be surprised to see the Greens picking up roughly the same seats, and offering SF an alternative route to power, depending on how many seats SF get. One thing is for sure, SF won't make the same mistake as last election where they didn't run enough candidates. They'll stick people in everywhere they can get them. They picked up 37 seats with 42 candidates running, an impressive success rate by any measure.

    The one downside of that for them, is they have a lot of basketcases in their ranks who will likely cause an endless stream of embarrassments during election time/if they get into govt.

    Honestly, I'm hoping SF get into power in one sense. I'll enjoy seeing them having to come to terms with actual govt finances that have to be balanced and not not just their crayon economics. The flipside is I'm dreading how they might make a complete mess of things in the pursuit of populist policies.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,159 ✭✭✭ RoTelly

    I think the surprise will be that they will retain 5 seats but yes greens will be around for a long time. However, if it is down to infrastructure etc I think their minister's in ability to take action on DAA looks very bad. Regardless of you want to say "but his hands are tied" etc etc etc.

    Though I think it is likely to be SFGP government, with the possibility of SD being part of the government.

    SF 71

    GP 10

    SD 3

    84 seat.... is this a possibly outcome?

  • Registered Users Posts: 27,007 ✭✭✭✭ Wanderer78

    i think the greens could get a severe battering, but so to could both ffg, many just see them as the party thats just gonna keep raising taxes, and we all love that!

    it is gonna be interesting to see how sf get on though, but i suspect it wont matter who goes into government next, as things are not looking amazing for some time, we re clearly experiencing catastrophic ideological failures, and we dont really know what to do next. any government is gonna struggle severally, as we can no longer run our state as a single entity, we simply dont have the resources, including financial resources, but its very likely everyone is gonna try contract over the new couple of years, and we clearly need a massive expansion, in particular in regards public finances, but that may not happen. we clearly experiencing catastrophic failures at fundamental levels, we re now no longer able to provide ourselves with our most critical of needs, i.e. housing, health care, energy needs, environmental needs etc etc etc, and we seem to have decided its best to go in the opposite direction, in regards resolving these!

    we also have to get over the true 'crayon economics' we ve been following for decades now, as it has largely failed, leading to our current mess, i.e. balancing budgets is by far the most dangerous policy to continually try, it has failed, by doing so, its forcing us become over reliant on the private sector money supply, the credit supply, which just lead us straight into 08! and now we re still trying it, this is madness, in fact its highly dangerous for us all!

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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,703 ✭✭✭✭ VinLieger

    Its tight but if FF are out of the question its really the only viable option, SD's would want to be careful though cus Greens have their environmental shield that they will always be able to recover thanks to but anyone else could disappear very quickly