Heineken Champions Cup Quarter Final - Munster vs. Toulouse - Saturday, May 7th - Aviva Stadium

SUAF_1879

Munster

Mike Haley; Keith Earls, Chris Farrell, Damian de Allende, Simon Zebo; Joey Carbery, Conor Murray; Josh Wycherley, Niall Scannell, Stephen Archer; Jean Kleyn, Fineen Wycherley; Peter O’Mahony (C), Alex Kendellen, Jack O’Donoghue.

Replacements: Diarmuid Barron, Jeremy Loughman, John Ryan, Jason Jenkins, Thomas Ahern, Craig Casey, Ben Healy, Jack Daly.

https://twitter.com/StadeToulousain/status/1522531536180068352/photo/1

Ref: Luke Pearce

Broadcast available on: BT Sport 2

• Munster Rugby have won four of their previous seven Heineken Champions Cup encounters against Stade Toulousain, including a victory in the 2007/08 final (16-13); however, they lost their most recent clash with the five-time champions (33-40 in last season’s Round of 16).
• Munster Rugby and Toulouse will each be playing in their 19th quarter-final in the Heineken Champions Cup, no other club has played as many fixtures at this stage of the competition; Munster have won the most quarter-final fixtures of any team (14, Toulouse – 12).
• Munster Rugby have won their last five quarter-final ties in the Heineken Champions Cup, a run which includes two victories against Stade Toulousain (47-23 in 2013/14 and 41-16 in 2016/17); four of their last six quarter-finals have been decided by margins of six points or fewer, including each of their last two.
• Stade Toulousain have won their last three quarter-final ties in the Heineken Champions Cup after losing their previous three in a row – two of those defeats coming against Munster.
• Stade Toulousain have won their last four Heineken Champions Cup away games against Irish teams, this after losing their previous five such matches; their last three wins in Ireland have each come by exactly seven points.
• Munster Rugby are one of two teams remaining in this season’s Heineken Champions Cup not to have conceded a single try that originated from a scrum (also Leinster); additionally, 20% of their own tries have originated from scrums, the highest percentage of any side remaining in this season’s competition.
• No side has forced more opposition turnovers in this season’s Heineken Champions Cup than Munster Rugby (48); additionally, no team left in the competition has conceded more turnovers this season than Stade Toulousain (70).
• Stade Toulousain have beaten an average of 30 defenders per game in this season’s Heineken Champions Cup, only Leinster (31) have averaged more in the competition in 2021/22.
• No player has claimed more lineouts in this season’s Heineken Champions Cup than Munster’s Peter O’Mahony (36); O’Mahony has also stolen at least three more opposition lineouts than any other player this season (7).
• Antoine Dupont has beaten 18 defenders in his three Heineken Champions Cup appearances this season, his average of six defenders beaten per game is the most of any player to feature more than once in the competition in 2021/22.

phog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058244660/heineken-champions-cup-quarter-final-munster-vs-toulouse-saturday-may-7th-aviva-stadium

So, what you're saying is, we can do this :)

#SUAF

aloooof

This strikes me as a big area (and on in which Beirne is a big loss).

No side has forced more opposition turnovers in this season’s Heineken Champions Cup than Munster Rugby (48); additionally, no team left in the competition has conceded more turnovers this season than Stade Toulousain (70).

We'll need to to be spot on at ruck time to slow them getting their ball to DuPont and Ntamack to work their magic. And on any rucks we don't contest, we'll have to be flying off the line on that phase.

SUAF_1879

Team selection added to the first post

Cookiemunster

No surprises in the starting XV.

Munster: Mike Haley; Keith Earls, Chris Farrell, Damian de Allende, Simon Zebo; Joey Carbery, Conor Murray; Josh Wycherley, Niall Scannell, Stephen Archer; Jean Kleyn, Fineen Wycherley; Peter O’Mahony (C), Alex Kendellen, Jack O’Donoghue.

Replacements: Diarmuid Barron, Jeremy Loughman, John Ryan, Jason Jenkins, Thomas Ahern, Craig Casey, Ben Healy, Jack Daly.

phog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023007#Comment_119023007

6-2 split, Jack Daly wearing #23

Eod100

Toulouse team here https://twitter.com/StadeToulousain/status/1522531536180068352?t=RN5heSBCKW8PanQEz5I6sw&s=19

TRC10

Baille not starting is a strange one. Probably the best LH in the world right now. Marchand returning is massive, phenomenal player.

Munster have their work cut out dealing with that Toulouse pack, it's absolutely enormous. And then there's guys like Mauvaka, Baille, Tekori and Jelonch who they can spring from the bench which is frightening.

One thing I've noticed about both France and Toulouse this season, is they'll have two or three periods in games of about 10 minutes where their forwards are getting over the gainline with ease, Dupont is getting quick ball, him and Ntamack are pulling the strings and they look absolutely unplayable. But they can't maintain that intensity for 80 minutes. We saw it in the 6N, the way France started it looked like they were going to slaughter us, but they can't maintain that level throughout and we got back into it.

Munster need to weather the storm as best they can, because the Toulouse onslaught will come. If they can slow down Toulouse's ball and minimise the damage they inflict during their purple patches, they have a real chance. When Munster have the ball, they absolutely must play with tempo, keep the ball moving and not get sucked into an arm wrestle with that Toulouse pack, because they'll lose. That's why I would have gone with Casey.

I really hope they do it and I think they have a real chance. But looking at the two front fives makes me nervous.

tommybrees

Kills me to say it but without Beirne

Toulouse by 10

starkid

Munster haven´t a hope. on paper the two teams are worlds apart.

Irish rugby´s obsession with producing more leaner, endurance athletes is backfiring on us big time. Munster to put up a good fight but get blown away in second half. Toulouse by 20. I don´t think Leinster would fare any better so not trolling.

Hopefully in the future an Ahern or whomever can begin to turn that particular tide.

Cookiemunster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023361#Comment_119023361

You do know that Toulouse beat Ulster by 1 point over 2 legs right? And that an in form (which they're not right now) Toulouse only beat a pretty similar Munster by 7 in an empty Thomond last season? They may be Toulouse, but they're a pretty average Toulouse this season.

pickarooney

Man for man pretty much every Toulouse player is better than his Munster counterpart but I could still see this going to the wire.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023565#Comment_119023565

They’ve lost 10 of their last 15, I heard on OTB this week. They don’t seem to be as imperious as last season.

Bookies have a 5 point spread. That’s a touch generous I think, but in a one off game, you never know; particularly when we’ve seen cards have such a big impact on results this season.

They’ll need a lot to go right for them, but “haven't a hope” seems way too strong.

Red Silurian

For anybody with the capabilities the french broadcaster, FR2 (France Televisions), are covering this match also

lawrencesummers

We have a better chance of beating them this year than last, but i would be more confident If coombes and beirne were starting

phog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023642#Comment_119023642

That's the thing, Toulouse are very capable as they showed in their game in Ravenhill, they clawed back a 6 point deficit from game one to win the two match fixture.

Can Munster score 20 odd points against them? It looks like we need to, glancing back over their more recent games in the T14 the lowest score that beat them was 17 points

I've said this before but we're in the business end of the season now and we're there without Beirne, Killer, Coombes & Cloete, they could have been vital tomorrow for us but we have reasons to be hopeful too as guys like Ahern or Kendellen step up and take their chances.

Cookiemunster

38k tickets sold as of this evening according to MR.

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025023#Comment_119025023

Hopefully they will bring the noise. Make it intimidating for Toulouse.

Dubinusa

I don't think Toulouse are as good as last season. Munster can beat them. The pack will wear down as the match progresses.

Clegg

I hope the weather is decent tomorrow. I work in Ballsbridge and the rain was fierce today.

Venjur

I have no idea how this game is going to go, but I know for a fact that it will be the referee's fault.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025309#Comment_119025309

Correct. Munster edge it and that Toulouse shower will be painful…

And then obviously Leinster fans coming into a Munster thread. Naturally.

Poorside

Think we'll either squeak a win or get blown away, that Toulouse bench is awesome, I wouldn't agree that man for man Toulouse are better, I think 15 - 11 we have the edge and Pom in the form he's been in this season would stroll onto the RCT team, that's about it though.

Zeugnis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023007#Comment_119023007

Mistake not to start Casey.

Poorside

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026257#Comment_119026257

Maybe not, bring on Casey at about the time Dupont is starting to tire or when he's replaced, could by a momentum shift.

irelandrover

Yeah. I think which one of Murray Casey starting could be a horses for courses decision.

I'd be expecting to be chasing this game at the end no matter which one starts. And in that situation I'd rather have a fresh Casey to bring on than a fresh Murray. And murray is a better defender against a fresh ntamack and dupont than Casey.

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026575#Comment_119026575

Murray got done by Hallam Amos last week. His size is useful when big guys are running at him, but Casey is no more susceptible to being exposed by the likes of Dupont, I'd argue less so.

PMBC

Cant get to tv for this. I read Leinster match is full broadcast on BBC R4/5.

Is the munster match fully broadcast on any radio station?

Poorside

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026723#Comment_119026723

Live 95fm have it, probably Rte 1 as well, which would be much better

Akrasia

You can get a now TV extra month pass for a tenner and you'll be able to watch both matches and the knockouts the semis and the final on your phone if you're away from home

https://www.nowtv.com/ie/watch-sports-extra

you'll also get all the URC games

Not a bad deal

Interested Observer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026575#Comment_119026575

Casey hasn't started any of the European games this season, it's fairly clear Murray is first choice imo.