How long until we see €2 a litre and will it push more to EV's faster?

vickers209 · 29-11-2022 11:38pm

Fuel card prices dropped to 130 ex vat (159.9inc vat) today (applegreen) for diesel,

This Should slowly feed into retail pumps over the next week to 10 days,

bear1 · 30-11-2022 8:46am

Hard to fathom, for me at least, that a price cap of say 65 a barrel will increase the cost of fuel.

30-11-2022 10:23am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119938205#Comment_119938205

None of that fuel will come to any EU or G7 shores. The point behind the price cap is threefold

Firstly, reduce Putins income

Secondly, maintain some oil flow from Russia so as not to crash world markets

Thirdly, give poorer economies a path to cheaper oil to mitigate against inflationary pressures

02-12-2022 9:47pm

The EU has agreed on a cap of $60 a barrel for Russian oil in tankers

https://www.rte.ie/news/2022/1202/1339701-eu-russian-crude-cap/

A few things on this

The idea behind the cap & embargo is to allow Russian oil to stay on world markets for poorer nations to avail of, but to reduce the profit margin for Putin.
The oil embargo comes in on Monday for the EU but only applies to oil shipped by tankers, not in pipelines.....yet
The price cap is being enforced through the shipping insurance companies so sell for higher, your insurance goes away. That happens, you won't get permission to enter any waters anywhere.
The Russian reaction to this is not yet known. They may turn off the pipelines into Europe as reprisal. All bets are off in that instance and its a very real possibility as they did this with gas
OPEC will meet this weekend to discuss so something may come from that also

We live in interesting times. Still more to come on this

02-12-2022 10:13pm

Just some more on the Russian oil, this video goes into a lot of the implications from a shipping perspective.

https://youtu.be/p_u90eYyW04

Some key points

Refined Russian oil is no longer considered Russian oil, so the like of Turkey and India are hoping to make a killing here, taking in Russian oil at the price cap and shipping refined products to the EU
Russia maritime insurance is getting rejected by the likes of China and India and others. In essance what this does is block Russia from using their own insurance and being able to charge more so anyone purchasing from Russia just has to reject the insurance and get it cheaper if Russia still wants to be able to sell it
There's a big issue with the Russian shadow fleet which is doing ship-to-ship transfers out at sea to skirt around restrictions.
Shipping lane restrictions could still be a thing at some point where Russian tankers could be blocked from the likes of the Turkish straits, the Baltics etc.

mikeecho · 02-12-2022 11:06pm

If things don't come to a conclusion soon, next winter might cause problems.

I'm the mean time, things (prices) should be fine until 5th Feb, when there's a complete ban on Russian fuel, both crude and refined.

03-12-2022 6:40pm

As I mentioned above, Russia could turn off the oil pipelines to the EU. Their response to the price cap seems to be to do just that

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/russia-rejects-60-dollar-per-barrel-cap-on-its-oil-and-warns-of-cut-offs-1400774.html

OPEC meeting tomorrow so we'll have to wait and see what comes out of that.

The price cap and embargo kick in on Monday

bear1 · 03-12-2022 7:16pm

Watch our prices sky rocket now.

bazz26 · 03-12-2022 10:54pm

best hide under the bed then.

bear1 · 05-12-2022 8:42am

Join me

tom1ie · 05-12-2022 9:18am

What’s the cheapest price people are seeing on diesel at the moment.

The cheapest I can find in South Dublin is 180.8 in Go fuel station Kylemore road?

Sexual Chocolate · 05-12-2022 10:41am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119957967#Comment_119957967

1.79 in circle K Finglas Road near M50

Widdensushi · 05-12-2022 11:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119953247#Comment_119953247

The bad news bear!!!!

UsBus · 05-12-2022 12:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119957967#Comment_119957967

173.9 for Diesel - South Mayo

05-12-2022 6:11pm

OPEC are holding steady with their output after the meeting yesterday

https://www.thejournal.ie/opec-maintains-oil-targets-uncertainty-russian-sanctions-5937671-Dec2022/

So now its to see what actions Russia will/won't take, if any.

Regardless, over the long term, this will lead to reduced Russian output and the knock on effect will see wells that are not pumping in the permafrost, freeze solid and take years to get working again. The only question is how many.

So if Russia decides to cut pipeline supplies to Europe in retaliation, they may knacker their outputs for a decade or more.

Sexual Chocolate · 05-12-2022 7:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119957967#Comment_119957967

1.74 in Go on old cabra road.

UsBus · 07-12-2022 10:09am

$79 for a barrel of crude. Going the right way. Cheapest I've seen is diesel @ 171.9. With the eurusd back at 1.05, there are still some garages creaming it in well over 1.83

tom1ie · 07-12-2022 10:21am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119966351#Comment_119966351

Where are you seeing that price?

seanin4711 · 07-12-2022 10:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058231385/how-long-until-we-see-2-a-litre-and-will-it-push-more-to-evs-faster

wasn't that always the plan by government? crude oil has never been more plentiful and cheaper (Viciously roots at back of couch for spare 40K for a supposedly environmentally better EV.

Vicxas · 07-12-2022 10:24am

Circle K in Dunshaughlin charging 185 for Diesel whereas everyone else is 180. Pure greed it seems from some people

bad2thebone · 07-12-2022 10:27am

Diesel below 1:80 in Kilrush. I think it's 1:76 or something like that and probably less now than it was when I was there a week ago. Prices in west Clare are going down.

Cape Clear · 07-12-2022 11:25am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119966401#Comment_119966401

Or maybe their costs are higher than other operators? Nobody is obliged to shop at a particular station nor is a station obliged to charge a particular price.

MightyMunster · 07-12-2022 1:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119966398#Comment_119966398

Nothing supposed about it, you could always buy a second hand one

07-12-2022 2:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119966398#Comment_119966398

crude oil has never been more plentiful and cheaper

At the moment. The impacts of the Eu+G7 embargo and price setting are yet to be felt in the market.

Not to mention from Feb Russian refined fuels will also be for the chop.

It's also mportant to remember that not all crude oil is created equally. A refinery can't just decide tomorrow to switch from Texas light to Urals or Saudi. Massive infrastructure changes are required to swap between the different chemistries.

Then there is the current driver behind the decrease in the price, the Chinese slowdown. That won't last. Even if they enter into a recession, it will go on a bit longer but it won't last.

Lastly carbon taxes are only going one way and will increase every year by 7.50 per tonne to 2030 which will take it to 100 eur. After 2030 the annual increase is suggested at 15 eur a tonne but its early days yet, might be more, might be less

UsBus · 07-12-2022 3:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119966393#Comment_119966393

Certa garage at the Tesco in Headford in galway. They are usually a few cent cheaper than the garages around them.

walterking · 07-12-2022 3:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119966351#Comment_119966351

I'm like a broken record on this.

Oil prices takes 10-14 days to feed into pumps.

Refining margins take 5-7 days to feed in

and exchange rate moves take 5-7 days

For diesel refining is $44 and has been steady for the past week.

Oil has averaged $86 for the past 10 days until yesterday

But is is falling and refining margins are coming under pressure too and dollar is over $1.05, so all in favour of further price reductions in the next 10 days.

Remember a coffee and pastry is far more profitable for a station than 30 litres of fuel - stations hate being expensive as they sell less coffee and other high margin products.