How long until we see €2 a litre and will it push more to EV's faster?

crisco10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767744#Comment_118767744

How long is a piece of string, it can be entirely covered by the Home Charger Grant of €600 if you get more basic charger which would suit most people's needs.

More sophisticated chargers would cost you net of up to about €600.

Also worth noting that the charger is then an asset on your house, all be it a small one.

Dakota Dan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767578#Comment_118767578

I never got the extra weight with the full fuel tank logic, the fuel saving would be minimal and it would be well used up from extra visits to the forecourt.

Duckjob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767744#Comment_118767744

Not sure what the offers are now- when I got it done it cost something like €850 all in, about €600 of which was covered by grant.

Also, its worth noting that the cost of charger isn't just allocatable to a single EV. Assuming most people stay with EVs once they buy one, and that we'll all be going electric in a couple of years anyway, it's more an investment over your motoring lifetime.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767747#Comment_118767747

Bigger stations get multiple deliveries a day, that was stated by somebody on the panel on TV3 the other night.

Either way, you said, without evidence, that they push the price up 3 times a day on the same stock.

It's been explained here many times how the pricing changes based on fill levels in tanks and how much the refill is etc.

Maybe read up on it instead of screaming gougers.

titan18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767802#Comment_118767802

I mean their excuse today was it takes several days to wash out in order for the reduction of excise duty to take affect. Doesn't seem to take that long for the prices to go up though, and if they're refilling multiple times a day than you'd expect the excise duty to drop immediately.

Dakota Dan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767802#Comment_118767802

The amount of fuel stations getting multiple deliveries a day would be few and far between in Ireland. For someone looking for evidence while quoting somebody on a panel on tv3 😀😀😀

Halycon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767744#Comment_118767744

We got it done for about €900, but that's because we were doing up the electrics in the house anyway. The grant gives you a flat €600. Average seems to be about €1000-1200 depending if you get a Solar capable charger or not.

I have a 30KWh Leaf that I bought second hand for €17000 2 years ago. Do about 250-300Km a week driving.

As others have said, its a massive saving if you meet certain criteria:

1. Are able to charge at home. I would never rely on the charger network fully, it would be too stressful and time wasting
2. Your commute/daily driving is less than 80% of the max range of the car to give you a safety margin. Less if you can get a guaranteed charge at work.
3. You are already changing your car. It makes no sense to take on a loan.
4. You can avail of night rate/ Smart meter rates. I charge for about 7c per KW between 2 and 4, versus 22c during daylight hours
5. Ideally you have a ICE (diesel or petrol car) in the household for extra long journeys. (Cork to Donegal say, or driving to the continent.) It still might sense if you rent an ICE car if you only do a long journey once or twice a year.

I did all the sums out before I bought. I had an old 1.9 Seat Leon that was approaching end of life.

The big takeaway is that my car loan plus my electricity cost is less than what I was spending a month on diesel. That is not taking into account lower tax, maintenance costs or cheaper tolls. And the car is worth about €15000 on Donedeal. Car is at 113000 kilometres and does about 150KM on a full charge, which is a drop of about 20 since brand new.

macvin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767260#Comment_118767260

Why do people only comment on negative comments? Who was this guy. Was is a station owner? Does he know how the system works? Has he looked at how it has been affecting all other countries?

I did a little digging today on France, Netherlands, Germany & British prices. In the past 4 weeks diesel prices have risen by an average of 51c in those countries and 46p in the UK. Seems it all started about 11th Feb when demand went through the roof and refineries were charging 12c per litre for refining and it moved on from there with current refining prices at an all time high of 28c. Now THAT'S price gouging. And guess where most refineries are - Russia and Belarus

Here's a Feb reference

https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/021522-european-diesel-prices-touch-almost-75-year-high-on-tight-supply - $17-$19 per a barrel to refine the crude

Here's a March 4th reference https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/europe-distillates-barge-cracks-climb-new-14-year-high-40bbl-2022-03-04/ - over $40 per barrel to refine the crude

and yesterday hitting $47 a barrel for refining. https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2022:newsml_L5N2VA4XM:1-diesel-barge-cracks-climb-toward-50-bbl/

Normal price is $10-$12. Diesel will be back over €2 next week

So in addition to the oil price rises, the Russian, crimean and belarus refineries (and the others) are gouging all european and indian subcontinent diesel buyers by 20c (+vat) per litre most than the normal cost of 7-9c to refine the crude oil

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767838#Comment_118767838

Don't forget what YOU said, that they put prices of existing stock up 3 times in the same day. You have no evidence that they got no delivery on that day.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767835#Comment_118767835

Its not an excuse. Duty is paid before delivery. That is a fact.

You are comparing apples and oranges, prices went up as crude went up, and have started falling as crude is falling, hence me getting it for~€1.81 today, the duty was only 15c, but the same place was over €2 at one point.

flexcon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767260#Comment_118767260

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767686#Comment_118767686

If one of the garages is quiet then they may not have received new deliveries yet with the reduced excise AND the reduced price. It is a double whammy. 40c, even by stretch of imagination and will is not price gouging. There Is a timing issue here.

Regarding "..Would take a few days" the above explains this. If you still have tanks with pre excise cut then you have to either take a loss on that fuel to get new lower price fuel in or wait it out ....slowely.

flexcon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767747#Comment_118767747

Yes.....3 times would be fairly normal.

Especially recently with some suppliers limiting each truck delivery to 15,000 litres.

wpd

the more I think about this the more I conclude that the issue is not the price of energy but

the fact western governments have seen it as an opportunity to raise super taxes while hiding behind

a climate change agenda.

flexcon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768098#Comment_118768098

and yet here we have a 20c cut in tax....

fryup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767926#Comment_118767926

because they (Russians and Belarusians) knew that sanctions would come down the line and decided to up the price beforehand??😶

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768098#Comment_118768098

Maybe you should have stuck to the music Mr. Corr.

wpd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768118#Comment_118768118

and how much tax remains out of the 2 euro??

creedp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767926#Comment_118767926

It's hardly a surprise that Russia is turning the screw when Europe is applying crippling sanctions on Russia. I'm wondering what the short term European contingency plan would be if Russia turned off the tap both for oil and gas - other than shrug its shoulders and cripple its population. The fact that it would be an economic catastrophe for Russia probably means its low risk at the moment unless the war escalates significantly.

Begs the question why Europe has allowed itself to become so dependant on Russia for its energy requirements. It's not like Russia has turned inexplicably rogue in the last few years. I'm wondering if Germany is reviewing its knee jerk decision to shut down nuclear power without putting sustainable alternatives in place first.

flexcon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768154#Comment_118768154

Based on a buy rate of €1,90 (10c for garage)

approx napkins figures

Price before taxes: 96c per litre

So 49% or 92c since the reduction in Excise

Excise(Nora) is 42c per litre

Dakota Dan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768118#Comment_118768118

The massive increase in vat take will more than compensate any reduction.

flexcon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768390#Comment_118768390

True, however as its a percentage, if fuel prices drop so does the tax.

There are pros and cons to methods

titan18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767981#Comment_118767981

How come every budget then when excise goes up, it appears immediately. Surely based on what you're saying you'd expect a lead in of a few days before it happens since they already paid it on the old excise.

flexcon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768622#Comment_118768622

So this is another fallacy but is explainable.

In short it's up to the garage to be opportunistic or not and some are - some are not.

When the government change the excise duty at midnight it applies to all order from midnight.

So if a garage has say 20,000 litres of fuel inside, that has had the lower excise applied. So the garage can still charge the same price until the NEXT refill.

The next refill is dictated by the demand on that garage. so in a city it could be 10am next morning, in a village it could be 2 days.

So a village garage will still be selling at the same price for 2 days AFTER the rate change

A small town garage will still charge the same rate until 11am refill (opening hours 7am to 11pm)

City 24/7 garage changes price at midnight and gets early call 6am refill.

Again though, it's up to the garage.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768730#Comment_118768730

This.

I don’t understand why people’s immediate reaction is to cry foul/gov conspiracy/profiteering/D o Brien (delete as appropriate), when the explanation is usually as simple as the timing of the excise paid on the fuel already in their tanks.

the price of a barrel of Crude today does not directly correspond to the price of the fuel already in the ground at your local garage!

Damien360

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769186#Comment_118769186

That’s true that the cost at the garage does not necessarily correspond to the stock market price but if the rate that a garage has to fill it’s tanks is constant based on its usual demand, then why does the cost at the pump ramp up so much faster than it takes to come down. We very often see the cost ramp up at the same rate that a barrel of crude oil goes up. If demand is constant then the rate of change should be similar.

Sam the Sham

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769233#Comment_118769233

Wait, you mean capitalism is unfair?!? Who will tell the people?

HBC08

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767797#Comment_118767797

I'm not having a go at you specifically but can anyone explain to me how "we'll all going electric in a couple of years anyway" when most people can't have a charger installed at their residence?

I've yet to see an exact breakdown but of the 6 million people living in ireland I'd say a huge amount if not the majority cant avail of this.In my own case we have a 3 storey town house and lots of space but no official dedicated parking space,I doubt I'm alone in this.An EV can't be considered by me or anyone else in this situation. (I wouldn't get one for a myriad of other reasons also but that's just my own preference)

flexcon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769233#Comment_118769233

So this question has come up a lot and maybe we are not doing a good job at explaining the nuances of it. this is where hedging comes in.

If the price of oil is expected to go up by say 10c a litre in the next two weeks, a forecourt will most likely increase the prices immediately to start hedging for that bigger payment. So if the price is steady at €1.50 a litre making 5c profit it goes up to €1.55 a litre - 5c increase to make the profit per litre now at 10c. Note the price increase is not the full 10c though.

This will build up say 3k in the bank to use as a loss the next time it's needed later on which we get to.

So when the garage finally buys in that more expensive fuel the rate goes to the full €1.60 a litre on D-Day. Delivery day of that expensive fuel

Now, when the fuel price drops, and its two weeks away from getting that lower price the garage can reverse the logic when needed. Suddenly the garage across the road get its fuel in for the day its €1.52 a litre and you are at €1.60 a litre. BUT, you still have 20,000 litres of that expensive **** sitting in that tank at €1.60 a litre.

You have a decision to make

a) continue to sell at the €1.60 but demand will reduce at your pumps because you are more expensive thus accelerating the problem of having the higher price for longer

or

b)Reduce the price down to say €1.54 a litre and make a loss of 6c per litre to clear the 20,000 litre in the tank.

Now option b accelerates the usage so now you can buy in at the lower price and suddenly go at €1,52 to match the guy across the road. And you aren't really making a loss as this is because you put away that 3k from previous pricing to offset this loss moment

When it balances out it means that on average you made 5c per litre by hedging - making 10c per litre on one week and losing at 5c per litre the next.

Thus the saying " They are quick to put up the prices when they want but slow to reduce it when the price comes down" - Except that isn't true for ALL forecourts. It's antidotal

This example is WILDY simplistic but I do hope it helps.

What has really brought this to the fore is the excise duty of 20c reduction.

There was an unrealistic expectation that this means an immediate reduction on the price. it wasn't possible unless the garage would decide to sell at 20c per litre LOSS. This is why suddenly there was a massive 26c per litre difference in price (20c excise + 6c drop in fuel price anyway) and why now finally we are settling at approx €1.80 for unleaded.

some call that "See they are feeling the pressure of the public"

Logic dictates something entirely rational beyond that.

PS - please remove circle K from the equation as it isnt disputed they play by a different market. They are always more expensive even when the market is calm. Perhaps Circle K is making the situation look worse. Maybe, I don't know.

macvin

Some really good news.

Refinery margins dropped dramatically today to $29/barrel on diesel fuel.

Still higher than the long term average of $10, but a big drop from the $45-$52 charged last couple of week which saw the massive and sudden rise in diesel price

Looks like the market throughout Europe will see a substantial forecourt drop in diesel towards the end of next week and also for kerosene.

The fear of supply has receded too.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769528#Comment_118769528

It's a problem that already has solutions available, a combination of municipal charging solutions either on-street AC or charging hubs located at places your already parking for an hour at a time. Where it's private housing estates, chargers can be installed via a charging service provider, we'll see more of them pop as they are a requirement for new planning permissions, at some point existing estates will need to provide upgrades. My management company has already started investigating what's required. If your's hasn't get on to them and make them aware of the problem, your paying them to consider the long term value of your estate.