How can we integrate Unionism into a possible United Ireland?

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030818#Comment_119030818

Indeed SF run for westminster with this clearly stated that they wont participate or take their seats, the DUP ran for the assembly and when asked directly if they would accept a SF FM they refused to engage with the questions.

Downcows conflation of the two situations is completely ridiculous and as usual is just more whataboutery in an attempt to hide the blatant bigotry and apartheid mentality that exists in political unionism.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030818#Comment_119030818

You can’t just wish for a situation. If that is the way our democracy worked then that is what would happen, but it’s not how it works. A far higher percentage of nationalists supported these democratical arrangements than did unionists. You can’t just wish them away when you don’t like them. You can work and agitate to change them like unionists are doing with the protocol - that’s politics, so get on with creating change instead of whinging

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030838#Comment_119030838

Wrong. Our system of democracy in NI was agreed that controversial change could only take place if both nationalist and unionist blocks accepted that change.

that was not followed in the introduction of the Irish Sea checks. Unionists are simply asking that we follow the agreed democratic process rather than make it up as we go along.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030970#Comment_119030970

LOL so what was Brexit then? Uncontroversial?

Sinn Fein's position on Westminster does not change based on election results and it does not affect the parliamentary process. If you want to conflate these two scenarios, you must argue that Stormont proceed as normal without them, just like Parliament does. Or stop conflating them.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030885#Comment_119030885

They were very clear that they would not be entering the executive until Irish Sea checks were dealt with. This is nothing to do with which desk Michelle sits at in a joint office. It’s about the protocol and it was clear up front in the same way as sf Westminster boycott is - which I would encourage them to continue with.

the only people being dishonest pre election was the shinners around a border poll

If they are abstaining as a protest, then Stormont must carry on as usual.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031002#Comment_119031002

You are wishing again. That’s not what was agreed in the Belfast Agreement. Do you want to renegotiate it? Or maybe you want to just ignore it?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030989#Comment_119030989

So why won’t Unionists say what they would do if they got what they wanted on the Protocol?

They aren’t fooling anyone. The belligerent ones, Bryson etc now touting MLA’s changing party is sone look for ‘democrats’.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030981#Comment_119030981

Absolutely it was controversial.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031019#Comment_119031019

And there wasn’t a whimper out of the “democrats’ about consent.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031016#Comment_119031016

Of course there will be a range of opinions. Individualisation and free thinking runs deep in our culture. It’s why we have 100s of church denominations, a range of political parties, etc.

if the protocol is sorted then the main unionist parties will definitely go into Stormont. TIV and Jamie Bryson etc will oppose that but that’s ok and healthy. Again that is democracy. They can stand on that ticket and see how they go.

I think there will be another election before Stormont opens again, if ever

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031046#Comment_119031046

Yeah agreed. Very strange. It wasn’t the unionists that were concerned about it. It was the nationalists. Do you want us to fight your battles as well

Furze99

Suppose there was a border poll next month, what would the likely result be up north & following on down south?

Up north, I'd reckon roughly 30% in favour of a UI, roughly 40% opposed and roughly 30% undecided and could go either way but likely with their pockets in mind.

Down south, would depend on the new arrangements involved. Let's suppose some sort of federal structure, a new anthem, new flag, removal of Official Languages Act - that sort of stuff. How would it go? You'd have some hardliners saying 'over their dead bodies and that's not what Patrick Pearse died for' etc. You'd have others looking at the relatively cushy position of the NI citizen, bankrolled by the (shrinking) teat of the British taxpayer and whether we want to prop that up. You'd have others who'd patriotically vote for it at any cost whatsoever.

You'd want a LOT of groundwork done and a starting position with a high number in favour.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031074#Comment_119031074

Which might salve your guilt but the fact remains your community has an ad hoc and selective attitude to how democracy is supposed to work.

’Free thinking’ in Unionism? That has to be the comedy post of the week after we saw the herd mentality frightened into voting for a party that has destroyed itself and any progress made in a failed state

Jump_In_Jack

i agree that if Unionists have an issue with the sea border that it’s their prerogative to not participate in the assembly.

After 6 months if no deals can be done then a new election will be called and it will go back to the electorate to see what they make of it.

It’s anybody’s guess whether or not Unionist voters would punish the DUP and vote for Unionist alternatives or other non-Nationalist parties (e.g. Alliance, Greens, PBP) or non-Nationalist Independents.

Does anyone know if the same occurred again, would a third election be called or would Direct rule come into force and for how long?

By the way, Unionists still the biggest group, if they never changed the rules to the First Minister being from the largest party the DUP would probably still have it.

DUP 25 + UUP 9 + Independent Unionist 2 + TUV 1 = 37

SF 27 + SDLP 8 = 35

Alliance 17 + PBP 1 = 18

From a basic viewpoint overall of where the seats went, it looks like Unionists lost 3 seats, Nationalists lost 4 seats, Greens lost 2 seats and Alliance gained all of those 9 seats.

Another election could compound that trend, which is bad news for a United Ireland.

As far as I know, there has to be a simple majority of Nationalist MLA’s to force a border poll, so the trend would appear to be that it is less likely and the status quo is winning out, and the Unionist voters are seemingly secure enough in that not changing to swap their vote to neutral parties.

Nationalists would need another 11 seats, can’t see SDLP and Sinn Féin gaining by that much, or Aontú or Irish Republican Socialist growing much more but who knows.

Would be more likely that the neutral parties will grow and the power-sharing structures might need to change if the majority of voters get sick of Unionist v Nationalist politics.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031086#Comment_119031086

There will be no definitive opinion on who will vote for a UI until a proposal is made by the Irish government on it.

Same as Scotland, the amount in favour when a poll was called was in the 30% range. When the White Paper was published that figure went to parity and they very nearly won it but for a 'scare and love' campaign(which turned out to be bogus) from Westminster which involved our own Unionists panicking and decamping to Scotland to assist.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031074#Comment_119031074

Ahh I see so they are only worried about following the agreed democratic processes when it aligns with their agendas then is it?

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030970#Comment_119030970

You know at least as well as anybody here that neither Nationalists nor Unionists would ever be able to agree on the rather controversial change of placing a customs border either on or around the island of Ireland. It would have been pure political gridlock, leading to a hard Brexit by default, leading to the DUP's preferred outcome of a hard border on the island of Ireland. But we've been here before. This is where we were heading in late 2019, until BoJo finally caved under the pressure to avert economic bedlam in Great Britain and just go around the NI political system, dysfunctional as it is, in order to do it.

The situation we're in is quite similar to one outlined a couple of years previously on an old Brexit thread. The concept of a 'rolling backstop' which could be extended if the UK couldn't come up with the promised frictionless border solutions.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2057952047/brexit-discussion-thread-vii-please-read-op-before-posting/p42

My suggestion at the time:-

Well, you would think that 10 years would be enough time to implement some fantastic new technology to have an invisible, yet effective, border, so if I were an EU negotiator I'd be tempted to sign off on that.

But it would have to come with a small caveat (and it shouldn't be a big deal since 10 years is, again, so much time) - if the UK has not implemented a workable solution in that time, they face either the existing arrangements between the EU and UK becoming null & void, or extending the backstop until the superseding solution is found.

How about that?

Your response:-

I could live with that. Not easy but could live with it. That’s compromise

Who has theresa’s number?

Would you consider 5 years?

So, unless your attitude has hardened since then, you can live with the idea of NI still observing some EU laws. And it's not even 5 years, as you suggested, but 4 (in fact, I think a member of the Assembly can technically table a motion to invoke the consent mechanism at any time). Compromise indeed.

Economics101

If we were judging the Assembly election outcome by "normal" political criteria, there we one big winner - Alliance' and two losers, the DUP and the SDLP. And the DUP was a lucky loser - their votes dropped but not their seats. SF had a fairly small increase in vote share (+1.1% points) but no increase in seats., so their only victory was coming first in terms of the popular vote vis-s-vis the DUP. This is a very artificial SF victory, simply because of the very unusual rules of the game under the GFA.

We shouldn't get carried away with talk about border polls, the SF share of the vote was just 29%.

Of course the abstentionist/boycott threats from the DUP are totally misguided in my view - running on a pledge to sabotage the political process is contemptable. But the SF abstentionist policy is also a nonsense and NI Republicans are wrong to support it. It is a hangover from 1918, when abstention of a majority was the means by which Dail Eireann was set up. Westminster was good enough for O'Connell, Parnell, Hume, Mallon and many others, but not good enough for SF apparently. I'm not impressed

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031270#Comment_119031270

Which is grand if your hypothesis is that SF own the concept of a UI. They don't.

What it quickly become evident again is that partition has failed in absolute terms. There is no saving it.

Give it time, the only credible options will begin to emerge over the next phase of northern Irish politics.

I.E. Let the people decide, on foot of campaigns (from Dublin, a 'plan' to attain our constitutional aspiration and from Unionism, a 'plan' to how they can make the Union work for all), what it is they want to do.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031270#Comment_119031270

I think it's mainly the swearing an oath to the British Crown which sticks in the craw of Sinn Fein politicians.

I agree about Sinn Fein not winning because they've become that much more popular, but if you win a football match only by merit of your opponent scoring an own goal, it's still a victory. Last few years Sinn Fein have just been sitting back and spooling out the rope to the DUP and this is something of a culmination of that strategy. If Northern Irish Unionism had even a bit of flex in its thinking, it would would have nothing to worry about, but it's just about being thran, to use an Ulster-Scots word for stubbornness, and that is now backfiring.

Ceramic

In some ways this deadlock could suit the Tories as it will just mean they can slam through whatever they want to do with NI under direct rule. It’s also a handy distraction for Boris as they can poke the hornets nest every so often.

There are jingoistic morons on the Tory Party but if they want to get Brexit finalised and off the table, the protocol must remain in place and I strongly suspect it will.

My guess is this will limp along until late 2024 at the latest, and that by then you’ll have a totally different British government, probably under a far more charismatic and pragmatic leader, quite possibly Angela Rayner, and the whole NI political mess will be solved rather rapidly much as it was in the 1990s. It might not lead to a United Ireland anytime soon, but a change of direction and a return to sanity and stability with solutions being found rather than problems.

If the economy gets much worse in Britain, particularly a failure to get the cost of living issues dealt with, I think there are some very bumpy times ahead politically. There’s a simmering discontent over there that’s begging to bubble. Northern Ireland is, in reality, very far down the domestic agenda for most voters in Britain. Other than a few hardline English nationalist types who are usually just triggered by something they’ve read in the Express or similar and rarely have any in-depth understanding of anything about it, the only objective most people seem to have is that it’s peaceful and doesn’t bother them.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031352#Comment_119031352

Danny Morrison wrote on this a while ago and it isn't just based on the oath but a principle of not interfering in the running of other countries they believe should be sovereign, like Ireland.

Make of it what you will, but it isn't just about allegiance.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031099#Comment_119031099

Pretty good analysis

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031136#Comment_119031136

They are following the democratic process. What I am saying is that no one seemed to care enough about blocking brexit to use the democratic process. You can hardly blame leavers for that.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031445#Comment_119031445

Did NI not vote againest brexit?

Ceramic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031470#Comment_119031470

Yes but that fact is always ignored.

Ceramic

I wonder would a referendum to either endorse or reject the protocol be the best way forward?

From what I can see the majority in Northern Ireland don’t see the protocol as very controversial and it would be useful if it could be put beyond party politics and let the people decide on it, as they did with the Good Friday Agreement.

NI exists in a unique set of circumstances that always requires compromises. You’ll never have a situation where both sides are 100% happy on these issues and the protocol was and is a sane compromised that went a long way towards basically preserving that in between status quo.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031187#Comment_119031187

I think I could still work with that but problem is that trust has been seriously damaged on both sides. If I thought Eu, etc were genuine then I could work with that