Is crypto era over?

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121174063#Comment_121174063

Indeed, no one can time the top or the bottom.

That said one mistake was definitely doing far too much DCA at one point. Prices haven't gone low enough for me to start DCA this bear though. Still looking for another -50%.

Beat the rush, hawk money from other people for digital garbage, that's the scheme.

HGVRHKYY

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121174018#Comment_121174018

That's the big issue I find, actually picking the price points. I had some in mind the last time, but most things I held didn't hit those price points. Like with BTC and ETH for example, what type of price points would you be hoping to start selling off from next time?

Also just so I'm sure, does the 10% remain 10% of the overall total you originally had or you simply sell 10% of your stash, with a new calculation of what 10% is as your stash reduces over time? E.g. you have 10 ETH, so you sell 1 and 1 and 1 etc. or you sell 1, then 0.9, then 0.81?

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121175284#Comment_121175284

Depends on what your money goals are. Some people are happy to make 2x, for others it's not worth selling unless they can make at least 20x.

On a side note, I discovered in 2017 that crypto is worth nothing until it's sold and the bank has been convinced to accept it from whatever source (and taxes are covered).

As for the selling price points I chose for 2021. I picked some lower ones to cover anything I'd spent DCA'ing in the bear. Then picked higher amounts for pure profit. My goal was to sell around 75% of my whole crypto portfolio in "the next big run", which turned out to be 2021 run.

The "lower" price points were just below ATH because, after following this insane market for years, in a run a coin will go right up to ATH much easier than go over it.

As for the "higher" price points, I just went with points higher than the old ATH, so with Eth it was e.g. 2k, 2.5k and so on.

Also just so I'm sure, does the 10% remain 10% of the overall total you originally had or you simply sell 10% of your stash, with a new calculation of what 10% is as your stash reduces over time? E.g. you have 10 ETH, so you sell 1 and 1 and 1 etc. or you sell 1, then 0.9, then 0.81?

The second one. A percentage of whatever remains each time is my personal preference.

For the absurd amounts of loony alts I had, I just converted them when they rose into Eth or BTC and just stuck to the Eth/BTC sell points.

As for the future, e.g. selling Eth, I guess I'd go with a similar approach. ATH in the 2021 run was around 5k, so in another future run I'd sell a bit at 4k, 4.5k. Then aim for 6k, 7k, etc.

I have a nagging hunch that 2021 may have been the "big one" with the perfect storm of NFT's, Defi and Memecoins that will be hard to top. And that we'll have future runs but overall they won't be "as big". But who knows, that's my random speculation.

It's 99.9% herd psychology. Which is why I strongly suspect there's be some sort of run in 2024/2025 simply because "crypto goes crazy every 4 years" becomes it's own self-fulfilling pattern.

HGVRHKYY

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121175355#Comment_121175355

Yeah I was saying in 2020 that people already latched on to the four year halving cycle theory after 2017, you'd see so many on crypto forums anticipating the post halving rally, and now that there are 3 previous incidents of it we'll hopefully experience a similar rally after 2024, creating an even bigger snowball effect. I'd say we'll still experience a good rally, especially if these ETFs actually get approved it'll create massive amounts of attention and hype in the usual communities. But you have some potential major economic issues brewing that could put an end to any hopes of a rally at the same time

erlichbachman

I believe we had this discussion on here some while back, looks like it’s starting g to become common knowledge

bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/elon-musk-calls-fiat-currency-a-scam

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121185693#Comment_121185693

It's not the slightest bit surprising this anti-vax/conspiracy douche-nozzle supports crypto, because of course he does.

You do realise you can make money from crypto without having to buy into all this edgy crypto-bro nonsense?

CorkRed93

musk is an idiot. ultimate pump and dumper. absolutely mental adults still dont see through his nonsense.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121185693#Comment_121185693

....majority of the global money supply no longer comes from central banks, i.e. it is not fiat based, but credit based, credit comes from financial institutions, we call these, 'banks'!

erlichbachman

Can’t believe we are giving Elon a hard time, is he not spending his time and money building rockets to search for habitable planets for when we burn this house down, should we not be building statues of such a pioneer?

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121186041#Comment_121186041

...for a chap thats clearly extremely self centered and narcissistic, just like mister trump!

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121186041#Comment_121186041

Nope, he's not building rockets, other people are. Smart people.

Elon is busy confusing pictures of walnuts with a child's lungs.

That said, he is partially responsible for pumping my Doge to the moon by tweeting meme's about it, but unfortunately that doesn't absolve the man of being a complete twat, if anything it reinforces it.

HGVRHKYY

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121186041#Comment_121186041

Space X and Tesla are undoubtedly filled with huge amounts of incredibly intelligent people capable of keeping those ships moving in the right direction without that weird, egotistical narcissist being the face of them

silliussoddius

There is a book on crypto out now by Zeke Faux called Line Go Up, what I find interesting from listening to interviews is that he said that Michael Lewis seems to have bought into the FTX hype at the time. Lewis has his own book coming out soon, so it will be interesting to see his take.

Potatoeman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121189782#Comment_121189782

A crypto exchange is a license to print money, you can just charge one percent on transactions and rack in the cash. Also SBF had backing from big financial players and his mother is an ethics professor. It will probably go down as the dumbest scam in history. I can see him or his lawyers popping their head out during the bull market trying to say all the money can be paid back by liquidating assets.

antimatterx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121189782#Comment_121189782

I pre-ordered the lewis book. Looking forward to it.

silliussoddius

From the sounds of it, the book seems to be an exercise in brown nosing.