Share Picks 2022

Andrea B.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119198334#Comment_119198334

Hi. Based on your last paragraph, are you predicting the longest, by far, bear market duration to date. If so, what would you be basing that on?

dil87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119200196#Comment_119200196

Stocks are showing extreme weakness right now, they can fall alot further from here still. I would at least consider waiting until we see some strength and major accumulation in names rather than trying to guess a bottom. I understand some people like to try bottom fish in times like this but there is potential for a lot more pain yet.

Subzero3

My semiconductor stocks are taking a nice hit but the Ruble has made me 1k profit so far.

We are in the summer now and energy prices are skyrocketing. I think we need to enjoy this summer because winter is going to be crazy.

Markus Antonius

So are we looking at a huge selloff before the fed press release? Was kicking myself last time for not exiting some positions beforehand.

Patsy167

wow, yet another landslide day across the board.

Pussyhands

I'm not the only own down substantially overall right? Down 13% again

dil87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119211525#Comment_119211525

Hedge funds are blowing up and closing shop. While 13% is painful, you're doing better than some of the 'pros'! What's your portfolio?

patsy_mccabe

Is there value there now folks? Surely there must be? Is anyone waiting on the wings hoping to buy big?

God, Tesla now at $660, Apple at $131, Amazon at $103.

dil87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119211580#Comment_119211580

I'm all cash, have been for some time. No interest in putting any money to work during this environment, it's a sure way to the poor house. Exceptional weakness across the board, all major indexes in a nose dive, market interals are a disaster and could be some time before all this gets resolved. Only 2% of S&P stocks are above their 50 day, 2%!!!

There's really no need to rush in and try to make money, there's no panic, just chill and keep your cash ready for when the market turns up

bcklschaps

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119211580#Comment_119211580

Yeah, a lot of stuff now very tempting. But you just don't want to shoot your bolt ⚡ too early ....like I did (I went on a buying splurge there last week) 😔 stop-Losses getting hit all over the place today.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119211568#Comment_119211568

Actually just of 14% down now, dropped another bit since my last post 😂

Company: % down: % currently of portfolio

Alibaba: -36%: 41%

Berkshire B: +24%: 39%

Microsoft: +12%: 7%

Apple: +20%: 6.8%

CBRE: +85%: 2.7%

Crispr: -43%: 1.8%

Draftkings: -62%: 0.8%

Patsy167

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119211637#Comment_119211637

Trying to time the bottom can be exhausting. I missed the boat so many times listening to ZeroHedge and other Bears. I'd rather start DCA'ing in now rather than be glued to the fence.

Markus Antonius

If the march 2020 crash is a measure of anything, we have a lot more pain in store:

S&P 🔻33%, Nasdaq🔻28%, Dow🔻36%, Euro 50 🔻38% (March 2020 drop from ATH)

S&P 🔻24%, Nasdaq🔻33%, Dow🔻19%, Euro 50 🔻22% (June 2022 drop from ATH (so far))

Difference now is the Fed are causing the drop rather than stopping it...

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119211580#Comment_119211580

I was forced to sell down my whole portfolio in April. Pretty incredible luck looking back on it. Looking forward to starting to accumulate again now at these lower prices!

Couple of notable sell points!

5 Amazon @ $3,308

120 Berkshire @ $348.20

95 Apple @ $176

30 ASML @ €600

dil87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119211862#Comment_119211862

Not to sound condescending but it's not trying to time the bottom when you know what to look for. It's remaining patient for stocks to come under real institutional accumulation which is very obvious when it occurs. I think too many people are in a panic to try make money in the market at all times, that's why most individual investors struggle and would be better leaving their money with professional investors. From my perspective I just don't understand DCA into a market that is nosediving, I'd rather wait for funds to start showing up and buy into strength

patsy_mccabe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119212183#Comment_119212183

Even that doesn't make sense. I know the institutional investors will step in and buy but who knows where the bottom is. Is it not better to just work off the fundamentals. DCA doesn't even make sense to me, buy when cheap, simple as that. Nobody can predict the market.

theboringfox

Will be buying a bit of Amazon, Microsoft, Berkshire and Disney tomorrow. Im sure there is worse to come but long term I think theres good value right now. Going to stick to large wide moat businesses and just average in on monthly basis

Pussyhands

Down 6% on the day and 15% overall. Carnage

chuchuchu

When do people think the markets will bounce back?

Atlas_IRL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119213746#Comment_119213746

Noone knows but there could and should be more pain to come. We also are technically in a recession in the US so there are still way more factors to ocme in, real estate could get hit, inflation gets worse, mortgage rates go up more. I'd rather wait for steady green then buy into a slow landslide.

dil87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119212443#Comment_119212443

No offence but it doesn't make sense because you don't understand it. Do you use technicals at all or pure fundamentals? You don't have to buy the exact bottom to make life changing money. The market will bottom and institutional buying volume will show up like a house on fire. Funds move the market, not us, so I definitely don't want to be buying stocks when the smartest guys in the game are dumping everything. And you're right, nobody can predict the market, but that's why you study market history precedents and most importantly; risk management.

Not bashing anyones investment stratedgy, just see too many people claim it's not possible to know the right times to be in and out of the markets. I've been in the markets for years now with many of my early years spinning my wheels not making any money, but study and persistence pays off. I have regular contact with a fund manager from Chicago who has been running a succesfull fund for pver 30 years which has helped me immensely. The average fund goes bust in about 5 years, the reason he is still in the game is because it is possible to know when to step aside when the market shows signals of turning down and gets back in when the trend turns, keeping everything made in the uptrend. There are genuine guys in the game willing to help others, it's just finding the ones willing to take the time. 👍

roosterman71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119214182#Comment_119214182

Are you one of those willing to take the time? Plenty on here would like to learn

dil87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119214611#Comment_119214611

I have no problem offering up some knoweldge I have gained over the years to those who are serious about investing, albeit I wouldn't call it advice for obvious reasons. It takes years of putting in the hours every day, however, I don't think a lot of people are that serious about investing to put in the hours that are required. Also, a lot of people don't like to be questioned about their investment process, no matter how unsuccesful it has been for them. It can be a very personal and emotional topic for some, ego gets in the way of most investors success, even for the pros who have gone bust during this current bear who refused to liquidate their portfolios sooner.

roosterman71

I'd be interested anyway. Long term success is better than a quick win, getting over confident and then losing it all (and more) trying the next quick win.

patsy_mccabe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119214182#Comment_119214182

Put it this way, who drove Tesla up to $1,240? Was it the fund managers? I wouldn't underestimate the effect of retail investors. How else can you explain the crazy heights reached in the last year? I know when the fund manager step in to buy, it should be obvious, but the upturn will be swift then. Better to pick your own timing. My humble opinion anyway.

I timed the Covid dip perfectly, but maybe I was just lucky.

bob mcbob

I think the crash still has further to run my guess is another 4-5 months. I think it will bottom out when the predictions of a recession prove to be accurate (ie recession is confirmed)

The speed and degree of policy tightening may prove too much for economies to handle, particularly given the commodity price shock currently in play,” economists at NAB bank in Australia said in a note on Friday. “As a result, recession risk for several of the major advanced economies, including the US, is uncomfortably high.”“David Bassanese, chief economist of Betashares in Sydney, went further and predicted a US recession “within the next 12 months” due to persistent inflation and the Fed’s pledge to raise rates until the inflation genie is back in the bottle. As a result, he said that share markets in the US had further to fall. There seems scope for equity markets to fall further. My base case is the ultimate peak-to-trough decline in the S&P 500 will be 35%, implying a decline to 3,100 from its closing peak of 4,796 on 3 January.” It closed at 3,667 points on Thursday.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/17/asia-markets-plunge-again-as-flurry-of-interest-rate-hikes-fuels-recession-fears

This is implying a further 15% fall in S&P which is likely to mean a larger fall in Nasdaq. For those looking to get in the market my advice would be pick a number that you think is going to be the bottom then start buying when the number is hit.

Pussyhands

Slight reprieve for me today with BABA currently up over 10% pre market on the back of rumours that the ANT IPO is back on the table.

Pussyhands

Spoke too soon. Flat now.

Patsy167

META looks like its worth a punt at current valuations. Down 52% YoY and at a 1Y low as of today.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119214698#Comment_119214698

I'd second that.