General Irish politics discussion thread

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120716753#Comment_120716753

well of course there wasn't, and if you think the media had anything to do with it... 🤣

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120717451#Comment_120717451

No, I didn't say the media had anything to do with it. The media, as it turned out, were correctly predicting that she was by far and away the frontrunner long before her election to the post.

blanch152

Always amused at the number of anti-FG posters who continuously call for FG to get rid of Leo.

The opinion poll has two movements greater than the margin of error - falls in support for SF and FG, but the government remains at 43%, well within shouting distance of being returned.

Only two possibilities of government, the current one or SF with FF.

FrancieBrady

A day after the Taoiseach made much of the language being used in the Dáil, we get Martin sinking to the Jamie Brysonesque vocabulary. This is appaling behaviour and I think he knew it too.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1669289202851229696

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120717067#Comment_120717067

I reckon they are aiming to be leaders of the opposition next time out. They'll leave Varadkar in control until the election and then jettison him immediately afterwards.

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120717572#Comment_120717572

Anti FG posters, like myself, want FG to keep Varadkar to cause FG maximum damage at the next election so don't fool yourself.

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120717645#Comment_120717645

The most likeliest of scenarios, for sure. They went to remove Enda Kenny in 2010 because he was only on 28% in the polls although admittedly different environment at the time.

Sure don't FG go around with forks in their hands when it's raining soup.

FGs main problem is that the general public don't like LV. They've seen enough and had enough of him.

Podge_irl

FG have been in power long enough, being able to be head of the opposition would be exactly what they want I suspect.

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718194#Comment_120718194

You don't know FF/FG if you ever think they want a day in opposition.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718218#Comment_120718218

One day in government is worth one year in opposition, as Mary Harney said. The reason being, you get more done.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718250#Comment_120718250

How's Mary and her party doing these days?

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718250#Comment_120718250

Wasn't it "The best day in opposition is worse than the worst day in government" what Harney said?

She could have said both, of course.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718379#Comment_120718379

Maybe I am wrong, but the point remains true. To me, though, what is the essence of a political party, other than going into government?

You have policies, you want change, you want progress, what is the use of being in opposition?

Hotblack Desiato

Well there are certain parties such as PBP who are very content to stand roaring on the ditch. Ran a mile when there was a sniff of actually going into government. Says it all about them and their voters.

FrancieBrady

If ever you needed evidence of the stupidity of entering a coalition where you will be scapegoated and get only a fraction of your policy implemented this country’s history of coalition is it.

That party’s do it over and over is mind boggling. There is a certain resignation among the repeat offenders about it too.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718536#Comment_120718536

The Progressive Democrats have made more of an impact on our lives - from smoking bans to personal taxes - than Sinn Fein ever had. The PDs never reached 36% in an opinion poll, and wouldn't have shouted about it if they did, but they actually achieved some of their policies, while Sinn Fein, the PBP, Solidarity etc. have achieved precisely zero.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718583#Comment_120718583

The PD's are gone...forgotten. The parties willing to jump into a coalition with a FF or FG party are stunted by their continual boom and bust as a result of going into governments unwisely.

The argument about what opposition has achieved and forced, has been run before. What would have happened in this country without effective opposition I shudder to think.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718218#Comment_120718218

I don't claim to know them on any deep level.

FG have been in power 12 years now, and probably 13/14 by the time an election is called. I think they would benefit quite a lot from being the primary opposition to a SF/FF government for example. I also think its good for parties in general to not be in power too long.

I'm sure they would take another stint in government, but they will be mapping out all the possibilities.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718807#Comment_120718807

I’d agree with you there.

There is an arrogance that comes with being too long in power.

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718536#Comment_120718536

So you and the true believers are holding out for an SF overall majority Francie, is that it?

My way or the highway. I suppose that is better than my way or a bullet in the back of the neck.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718536#Comment_120718536

Better to get some of your policy implemented than absolutely none of it / sit shouting at the reverse being done when you could have prevented it.

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718637#Comment_120718637

I and hundreds of thousands of Dubliners breathe a sigh of relief - literally - every day.

FF would not (or were paid off not to) take on the vested interests of the smoky coal distributors, Harney insisted that it ended in short order and it has saved thousands of lives every year since.

It's the biggest intervention in public health in Ireland since TB eradication. The champion of that, Noel Browne, was chewed up and spat out by his opponents and the vested interests too.

I cannot for the life of me figure out why you are taking issue with this Francie?

PDs suffered, like the Greens are now, that most of their policies have been stolen by the mainstream.

They (PDs) proposed in the late 80s to take god out of the constitution - an eminently sensible and equitable idea - but got ridiculed from hell to high water over it.

Ireland has profoundly changed but the major parties - and I include SF in this - have not changed nearly enough. They still endorse single-sex and religiously segregated education. They still tacitly accept that a very wealthy yet very guilty church should maintain a highly influential position not only in society but in the delivery of taxpayer-funded essential services like education and health.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120720536#Comment_120720536

At the expense of building a party capable of ‘leading’ a government? I disagree.

The change in how we are governed as a party capable of replacing one of the power swap grew itself has been amazing tbh.

The previous coalition cannon fodder sacrificed that.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120720586#Comment_120720586

In a multi-party system most parties, most of the time, are not leading the government. Thus a political strategy which only values leading a government is a strategy which limits what can be acheived. Most of the time, nothing can be achieved.

If politics is about, well, politics, then what matters is getting acceptance and support for your political ideals, and getting them implemented. Leading a government is just one way to do that. It is foolish to discount other ways.

Another way is by getting other political parties to adopt your ideals. Look at what UKIP achieved in the UK, not only without leading a government but without ever being elected to Parliament at all. They focussed on influencing the policies adopted and implemented by the Tory party. It was a brilliantly successful strategy. (Unfortunately, the policies themselves were disastrous, but that's not the point.)

That strategy probably only worked as well as it did for UKIP because of the UK's bizarre electoral system. In more conventional democracies, parties seek to promote their ideals by making alliances with other parties or by entering coalitions. (Indeed, in the cause of the politics, the party itself is often dispensable; in France, Italy and several other European countries parties form, merge, split and dissolve with startling rapidity in the service of politics; parties are just instruments for promoting and advancing political movements like socialism, social democracy, Christian democracy, liberalism, etc. The parties come and go; the movements endure. Contrast this with the sclerotic UK system, where they have the longest-lived, and least challenged, political parties in the democratic world.)

In this regard, Ireland is a lot more like continental European countries that it is like the UK. We know all about splits and mergers of political parties, and we know all about building coalitions as a way of achieving influence. And we're not exactly strangers to trying to get parties to adopt policies or ideals that we wish to advance. SF been largely outside this because, for a long time, they declined to participate in constitutional politics (which gave rise to a lot of splits, of course) and, for a long time after that, they were political pariahs with whom nobody would form an alliance or coalition. On the one hand, that did enable SF to adopt a fairly pure moral position of "government or nothing"; on the other hand, in practice that meant it was never government, always nothing.

That changed in NI in 1998, because under the GFA coalition (of a sort) is the only way any party can ever get into government. But, realistically, coalition is the only way SF - just like any other party - is ever going to get into government in the Republic. And in NI it's relatively easy (when Stormont is functioning); coalition is forced on the parties by the system. In the Republic, you actually have to construct a coalition. To construct a coalition to advance your own ideals, you also have to accept - be enthusiastic, even - about other parties advancing their ideals; if not, you make it difficult for them to join you in coalition.

The stronger your party identity, the harder it is to let go of the "the party is all" culture that impedes co-operation, consensus-building and coalition. FF found it really hard but I think, because of their history, SF may find it even harder.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120720831#Comment_120720831

I get all that.

I think the way FF and FG have chewed up minor parties here in coalition and spat them out is not how coalition should work. And it works because too many of those minor coalition parties are eager lapdogs to keep re-entering those coalitions.

It's a form of bullying rather than coalition.

Water John

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721111#Comment_120721111

So, is your advice that, if SF is the largest party in the Dail after the next election that no other party should consider going into coalition with them?

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721111#Comment_120721111

They want to re-enter coalitions because that's how they influence things. A party like e.g. the Greens sees itself as a ginger group — what they actually aim to do is to get their concerns and values taken up in the wider discourse, so that green considerations influence the positions adopted by other parties. If Green policies are "stolen" by another party, the Greens are absolutely delighted, in marked contrast to people for whom the party comes first, who very much want their policies to be identified with their party.

So, yeah, the Green party being chewed up and spat out isn't necessarily a fatal problem, if it's its part of a process by which Green concerns are taken up by other parties, are reflecting in policymaking and planning, etc, etc. Sure, the experience is bruising, and you never influence events to the extent that you would wish to. But that's politics.

You could say exactly the same about UKIP, as already pointed out. That party is now a joke, electorally speaking, as are most of its many spinoffs, but it has changed the UK in accordance with its own vision in a far more profound way that many larger parties have managed.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721111#Comment_120721111

FF and FG have not "chewed up" minor parties and spat them out, the electorate have.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120721236#Comment_120721236

Funny how posters cannot contenance and discuss the history of coalition here without mention of SF, who have never been in coalition here.

Invariably coalition here means the smaller party becomes a prop for the larger one and pays the price at the next election. Labour, The Greens etc we have all seen it happen. The Lib Dems in the UK, another classic example.

The bigger party in a coalition has as much responsibility to ensure this doesn't happen as the smaller on, more so IMO.

Like everything else there is a proper way to run a coalition and an improper way.

My advice to SF if they are the bigger party therefore would be, treat a coalition party with respect, compromise and don't scapegoat them.

Will that happen, I have no idea.

rock22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718583#Comment_120718583

Don't forget the privatisation of our Cervical screening and the nice disaster that brought