General Irish politics discussion thread

Seth Brundle

Mod: I'm tired reading through various threads being used as sticks to attack SF.

You've all made your points now move on and let's have a discussion for everyone and not just tit-for-tat bickering about SF.

eire4

To throw my 2 cents in when it comes to housing. For me it is an absolute disgrace that the current government and previous ones since the 2008 financial crisis have refused to ban foreign cuckoo funds from buying up Irish housing. Banning them is a real tangible step that could be taken very quickly.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120448718#Comment_120448718

Why should they be banned from buying them? Was them investing in the property market a decade ago, when pretty much nobody else was, a bad thing?

As for the blanket term "foreign cuckoo funds", how many of them are actually Irish financial investment funds just mislabelled?

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120448769#Comment_120448769

Because they are buying up Irish property in large chunks and driving up prices to line their own pockets. To answer your second question IMHO the answer is yes. But I would also say that just because something may be a good thing at one point does not mean that it equally cannot become a bad thing at another point.

In terms of your last question I do not have an answer. However I will just re-state that very quickly a very real and tangible step that could be taken to help our housing crisis would be to ban foreign cuckoo funds from buying Irish housing IMHO and it is an absolute disgrace that this current government has not done this nor have the previous governments since the financial crisis of 2008.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120448798#Comment_120448798

ok - how exactly would a law be written to ban a "foreign cuckoo fund" that would not ban non-cuckoo funds, etc.? Would you ban Irish investment funds from buying them? How would you define an investment fund rather than a group of say four people who decided to buy a rental property together?

As for driving up prices to line their own pockets, this would imply that they are selling the properties, which I don't think is the case - are they not renting them out?

Anyhow, by saying lets ban "xyz" sounds great but will of course cause various issues. To be honest, I think the biggest problem with housing is that we don't have a joined up approach (which needs all political parties working together) and what we have now is a politicised issue which no party will be able to fix (despite whatever they are currently saying) because the various parties won't work in unison and so the government are constantly reacting by introducing various new laws which have and will only make matters worse for all involved. At this stage, anyone who wants to be a landlord is being discouraged because of the current set up. In the coming weeks and months, many more landlords are going to leave the market which is fine if you're looking to buy a house but not if you want to rent. The current opposition are making various promises to provide more houses. Brillian plan except that we don't have the people to build them!!!

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120448886#Comment_120448886

I would say we should ban any foreign REIT, Vulture fund etc from buying up Irish property. No I would not ban Irish investment funds.

If you felt I was talking about them selling the properties I apologize for lack of clarity on that. I was not implying that at all. They are indeed renting them out primarily and lining their own pockets at the expense of Irish people in general in doing so.

Sam Russell

There is no need to ban cukoo funds.

All that is required is to have a level tax treatment for landlords.

Tenants should have security of tenure such that they have certainty of duration of lease. Assuming they are not at fault, then issuing a notice to quit for any reason should be illegal. The whole notion a landlord can just say that the property is to be sold, or is needed for some unspecified relative should be laughed at by all. Commercial property is sold - 'tenant not affected' - so why not in the private rental market?

Even if it is necessary for vacant possession then the eviction should only be effected after the completion of the sale.

I think the time has come for the rental market to be fully regulated - RTB could be the right vehicle but expanded to cope. Currently, the rent pressure zone has a serious problem for landlords who have below market rents that they cannot increase so must sell to allow new owner to reset the rent - daft.

The real solution to the shortage of houses is to build, build, build. It is the only solution - and if needs be, the planning system needs to be replaced.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120449107#Comment_120449107

Agree with you there Sam that the solution to the housing shortage is to build , build.

However there is a big shortage of Electricians, skilled trades, carpenters, plumbers etc in the country, and those from other EU countries do not seem to want to come here to work. More training needs to be done. Ask any small to medium builder and he will tell you all the lads he has are middle aged. Nobody has come through since the Celtic tiger burst. And he will say - righlty or wrongly - builders got shafted by the government then. Hence why there are not more builders. And he will say the young people now want soft government jobs with pensions and no stress. Or else computer jobs. That's the reality as builders see it. Just saying.

political analyst

The government has a meaningful policy on housing.

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2022/12/29/mixture-of-carrot-and-stick-can-be-used-to-get-developers-to-build-homes-says-varadkar/

Sam Russell

Report of a poll giving FG 15%, and SF 37%, would suggest Leo is getting the result of the eviction ban ending.

RTE news carrying reports that PWC advising clients to take action in anticipation of a SF led coalition raising taxes on high earners, pensions, and inheritance.

Interesting times ahead.

Guildenstern

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120451294#Comment_120451294

We need a serious apprenticeship programme. As per usual, what is being developed is just too small scale in vision, and like the RTB referred to above, under resourced with very little thought given to a medium never mind any long term strategy.

Easier said than done, since the last 30 years there has been a shift to push as many as possible into third level education for professional/office based careers. It is the role of government to lead, not just to react to circumstances. OK to go and get your degree if you want to be a lawyer or doctor or accountant, but what is becoming increasingly clear, going off to get a useless arts degree with no real plan as to what to do out the other end, is not going to secure you a career or even the chance to own your own home.

I'm talking about going into every school and promoting careers not just in bricklaying and plastering but also building surveying, design etc. Yes, I know people will say we over did this in the CT years, but these are skills than can be utilised elsewhere if needs be.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120456844#Comment_120456844

Talk of 'peaking' and 'ceilings' was premature.

I admit I was wrong predicting Leo would lead FG back to their GE 2020 level, he has exceeded my expectations.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120456844#Comment_120456844

...theres really no other way out of this mess, taxes are gonna have to go up, preferably on the accumulation of wealth such as the value of property, as a significant amount of public borrowing is gonna have to be done over many years....

retalivity

Surprised there isn't whispers of a heave against Varadkar yet.

The number are depressing though, nearly 80% of the vote split between SF head the balls promising free houses to everyone, an incredibly weak FF still based around Martin with a returning Bertie smell, FG populated by useless eejits like Harris and McEntee that are all fur and no kickers, then a GP having a civil war in one of Ryan's lettuce boxes.

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1644988351261310977

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120457244#Comment_120457244

...what about the parties promising a functioning housing market based on free market principles!

Guildenstern

That poll is understandably a very emotive response to the eviction ban yet while SF are clear beneficiaries, so are in a smaller way, FF. That seems bizarre.

SF got to 37% territory late last year. Can they maintain it as the outcome of the eviction ban issue plays out over the summer and autumn? You would think so, but we are all sensible enough, regardless of where we swing, to never just assume anything.

Also, while the numbers change across parties there is still a broad 50/50 split again between SF and FF/FG.

Am I right when they say no change for the Social Democrats, their last poll was pre Holly Cairns being elevate to leader. So, it's no change from then whereas the other polls have them around 8%?

.Donegal.

Is that the first time SF have more support than FG/FF combined?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120457358#Comment_120457358

One outlier poll had them on 9. Cairns is not going to be able to maintain a new leader bounce of that scale.

Larbre34

FG have played their cards right here.

They could've kept the eviction ban till next Spring, but no matter when they ended it, they would've shipped the same temporary damage, because the opposition would always have claimed there was never a right time.

This way, the Government has made all the difficult moves of its tenure, has got them out of the way, and it has two more Budget days between now and the Feb 2025 election to spread the (very considerable) wealth and to convince undecided voters, that all Sinn Féin want to do, is to take it all from them again, which of course they do.

I'd be shocked if the Government parties aren't on something between 46 and 50% in the last quarter before the Dáil is dissolved.

Water John

Can we save that post Labre and see does your prediction hold up? No doubt Govn't decided to take a hit on the lifting of the eviction ban and house prices stabilising if not falling.

But then, it's not a house for everyone in the audience.

Larbre34

No, but it's a house for more people in the audience, than not. Way more, actually.

And SF will have a different gift, that really will be for everyone in the audience. An effective tax rate of 60%.

Feel free to do what you want with my post.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120462969#Comment_120462969

“FG have played their cards right here”

Labre if this is them playing their cards right, I wouldn’t want to see them play them wrong. Worst polling ever and trying to spin it in to a positive. I mean it’s all a bit mental.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1644991317473107968

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120463171#Comment_120463171

Yeah worst polling ever now. Its done with, the bandaid is ripped off.

Won't be the worst polling ever in 22 months time, when its the only poll that matters. See?

Murph85

Varadkar is a busted flush. Get someone in who will abolish usc... that would win a few votes... it may not be financially responsible, but non of the mad **** they produce every budget is...

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120463216#Comment_120463216

It wouldn't be.

It would feed inflation further and contribute to an already high risk of economic overheating.

USC should be done away with, but it won't be in this Dáil.

Sinn Féin would get rid of it, but your PAYE would hit an effective 60% in return. Worth thinking about.

beeker1

Shinners are slicker than a goebbals , Russia today production ! Well for all those , particularly the snow flake generation who kicked & screamed for womems rights but totally forgot about Maria Cahaill , shame ! Bless strong women like the Mccarthy sisters who ensured their brother wasn't forgotten , or Paul Quinn beaten to death by his local shinner crew because the kid said something smart to a local toerag!

retalivity

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120463247#Comment_120463247

Shinners wont be getting rid of usc, those free-houses-for-all need to be paid somehow.

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120463247#Comment_120463247

Ideally they would just reduce the marginal rate but that would benefit only the " rich" the rich on 40k plus, who can probably afford to rent a bedroom in Dublin in a kip house share. That type of rich...

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120463171#Comment_120463171

From a shared vote high of 86% down to 36%. FF and FG are drowning each other.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120463296#Comment_120463296

40 years ago?

You're in the wrong century for that sort of whataboutery Frank.