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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2021/2022 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Even at this stage there is a big difference between the models with regards to wind strength and direction for Weds.
UKMO showing the storm pivot and swing down close to the NW/ N bringing very strong winds with it whereas the ECM keeps the main momentum of the storm well off the N coasts. The difference is basically the forecast given by Met Eireann following more or less the ECM and if the UKMO was correct it would give Red warnings in the NW maybe N and lots of counties in Orange warning.
The ECM has more models leaning towards it like the ARPEGE and GFS although the GFS looks a bit stronger as those ICON but they are nothing like UKMO.
The only other model something similar to the UKMO is the GEM . We will see.
Whereas Fridays storm which could pass over us might be a relatively short severe storm event the winds from this storm which will be located to the North of the country and transiting the North of Scotland will produce strong winds for much of the day for most of the country, could get gusts 80 to 90 km/h country wide, strongest along W, NW and N coastal counties.
Might get Rainfall warnings too.
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ARPEGE 18Z is an outlier tonight, much less windy for Weds but too much of an adjustment to be correct I would think, GFS still strong enough giving gusts of up to 100km/h overland at times but for the most part gusting 80 km/h overland, looks to keep the highest gusts to around 110 km/h along the coasts.
Interesting is that ICON has upped the windspeeds and looking more like UKMO now brining the strong winds tracking back down over the NW/N, high end Orange in Donegal or will the charts upgrade again and going by these charts seeing more counties experiencing Orange level winds for a time.
I do think after a long lull in the weather the models can struggle a bit with coming to terms with more extreme weather events.
Don't trust the output until I see the ECMWF showing something similar.
As Met Eireann said warnings will be updated tomorrow. Any insider knowledge there Donegal Ken -are they taking UKMO serious I wonder ??
A lot of rain predicted tomorrow and Weds ( on top of already squelchy ground ).
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Certainly looks like a good chance of snowfall to the northwest of the low centre Thursday night/Friday morning. Good upper dynamics in place causing mass uplift and cooling of the air column. Strong thermal gradient in place, so some will get snow while others get rain.
Latest upper air soundings from NE Canada overnight show a frigid airmass in place, while just offshore, a ship's sounding showed a 21-degree difference in 850-hPa temperature in a short distance. This is the birth zone of Dudley.
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Yeah in general been downgrading the winds, nothing too severe but long spell of good blustery weather, might be some locally very strong winds under a squally shower, AROME ids showing the tell tale signs of some squalls going through which could produce some locally very high winds for short duration.
Again the ECM and ARPEGE on it much quicker than UKMO and ICON , UKMO still showing strongwinds in the NW and along the coasts but it looks like it is overdoing it .
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lot of rainfall between now and later Sunday, might need to add other counties along the Atlantic.
- Met Eireann :
Status Yellow - Rain warning for Donegal, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo
- Met Éireann Weather Warning
- Persistent rain followed by heavy showers will lead to localised flooding in places.
- Valid: 16:00 Saturday 19/02/2022 to 16:00 Sunday 20/02/2022
- Issued: 12:24 Friday 18/02/2022
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Wind warnings in place for Sunday into Monday and again a fair spread in wind strengths, the GFS looks about in the middle
The front crossing the country on Sunday afternoon looks very wet and windy followed by increasing wind strength along Atlantic coastal counties as the day goes on. Blustery over the country and gales along the coasts with strong onshore winds, looks like winds will increase towards night
Some models showing it very windy overnight Sunday into Monday morning especially in the W and Ulster, models have been increasing these wind speeds over the last few runs. Wouldn't be surprised to see some Orange warnings perhaps in the W and NW.
Met Eireann
Status Yellow - Wind warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Donegal, Connacht
Met Éireann Weather Warning
Very strong westerly winds are expected on Sunday and Monday. Coastal flooding is possible in places.
Valid: 09:00 Sunday 20/02/2022 to 09:00 Monday 21/02/2022
Issued: 15:17 Friday 18/02/2022
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The GFS really surprising, a huge upgrade on previous runs, widespread Orange warnings, and high end in the NW at least, wouldn't take much to put it into a higher warning, rarely do you see the GFS the strongest of the models at this close to an event, usually the other way round, ARPEGE also looks strong, GFS looks as strong as the UKMO HD!
Could be a named storm. This is the kind of scenario where people could be caught on the hop, deserves a thread.
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GFS 18z upgrading the cold slightly for next Thursday. We get very close to a direct northerly. If this verifies Thursday could be the coldest day of the winter so far.
-9C uppers on Thursday.
A near miss of a bitterly cold north-westerly from North-eastern Greenland.
Without any mid Atlantic ridging or northern blocking, unfortunately this will just roll past us.
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To me looking like a cold wintry shower flow after the front clears on Weds, blustery day. After a lull away from the coasts Weds night giving widespread frosts inland into Thurs morning and then becoming quite blustery across the country and becoming very windy along the coast .Numerous wintry showers of rain, hail, sleet and snow showers moving well inland later Weds into Thurs, possible embedded troughs and thunderstorms quite possible. Cold day Thurs with added Windchill. Currently would think accumulations on hills and mountains it being so cold and maybe some lower down in places also but perhaps localized.
Approaching milder air on Fri, looks a mainly day, some coastal showers, less clod Fri night /Sat morning. Lighter winds on Fri also.
The W and NW coastal areas could see gusts up around 90 -100 km/h on Thurs, 70 - 80 km/h overland. Not as much precipitation as the last week but quite showery along Atlantic coastal counties Weds and Thurs.
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Cold airflow coming out of Canada and forming plenty of clouds on the way and reaching us as Weds goes on , 850 hPa winds.
Bit of interest, real hit and miss stuff unless we get a trough going and who knows an area might get a few cm's.
Thurs looks very cold getting up to no more that 6 or 7C in blustery conditions so a bite in the wind.
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