The Omicron variant

alentejo

So anyone any ideas when we hit peak Omicron. I think Ireland now has the world No 1 rates of Covid!

discostu1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118392610#Comment_118392610

Government saying we hit the peakl in 7 to 10 days per RTE News

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118392610#Comment_118392610

London looks to have peaked, Denmark possibly also. Hopefully we won't be far behind.

If it's just a single day's case number, then yeah we'd be well up there, especially if you exclude microstates.

What's going to happen to other European countries who are still coming down off a large delta wave and about to be hit with omicron one.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118392449#Comment_118392449

"Imagine the scenario if Omicron was as transmissable as it is but as harmful as Delta (or more harmful) then we'd be back towards lockdown restrictions"

Your earlier comments above.

So you didnt speculate about more deadly variants?

😂😂😂

Zebra3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118392449#Comment_118392449

I doubt he or she has any issue with my question around the possibility of the next variant being milder as it was obviously mocking the concern about the next variant being more serious but a concern that was offered with no evidence whatsoever.

Before all this nonsense, that was known as scaremongering. Nowadays that sort of unacceptable, unsocial behaviour has sadly become the norm.

Asdfgh2020

Can anyone confirm if when someone now gets a PCR test and result is +ive are they told which variant they have contracted…..?

Polar101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393033#Comment_118393033

No personal experience, but it seems very unlikely, they won't be able to sequence all positive results.

robbiezero

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391987#Comment_118391987

Why not end isolation on negative antigens?

conndeal

You are not told the variant you have when you test positive.

corkie

Omicron science, good news

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EDBJBmlvXY

Chris_5339762

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118390342#Comment_118390342

I don't have any credible source, only whats on here. The R0 is very high.

The Wild Type they thought had an R0 of about 2 or 3.

Alpha approx 50% more transmissible, R0 of about 5.

Delta approx 50% more transmissible again, R0 of about 8. John Campbell agreed with this number.

Omicron: God knows. Any more than 2x Delta and you're looking at an R0 of about 15, 16.

3-5 I have heard mentioned again, but I think that refers to Rt, the effective value of R in a locked-down population. I think that has gotten muddled with R0.

Of course there was some absolute rubbish spouted that Omicron was 5x more transmissible than Delta. That would give us an R0 of 40, which would be interesting, if nothing else.

Mrtm17

Has anybody unvaxed got the new varient yet?

How bad were the symptoms?

Jequ0n

I think they all died quickly.

Its not like they are primarily testing for variants , so not sure what you are looking for here.

Relax brah

just get the vaccine FFS

Marty Bird

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058225074/unvaxed

I’ve tested positive and I’m unvaccinated they don’t tell you what variant it is, my symptoms so far are cough and sore throat I still have the cough now the sore throat is gone.

Marty Bird

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393445#Comment_118393445

His/her body respect their decision.

leck

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393515#Comment_118393515

How do you know that?

Marty Bird

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393542#Comment_118393542

Know what ?

Pauliedragon

Have a friend who wont get vaxed. I respect his decision but it's a pain in the hole cause we are limited to the only pub that doesn't check certs for a pint and I'm bored of it. I want pints in other pubs for a change of scenery.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118392882#Comment_118392882

Of course I speculated. Not sure why you're getting upset about someone speculating.

Top tip: when someone starts a sentence with the term "imagine if" then they're posing a hypothetical. It's probably nothing to get upset about.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118392976#Comment_118392976

He’s raising a potential issue with variants, which seem to mutate quite a lot. There’s a potential that variants are worse in the future, if it’s less likely. The delta variant was deadlier than the original and more transmittable.

2018na

I have tested positive. No vaccine. Fairly nasty dose of a fever. Had a rough enough first night with it. Improved today but I have got a sore throat. The reason I didn’t get the vaccine was the requirement for my pps number. It has not stopped treble vaccinated people getting it anyway. This varient is a different level of contagious altogether

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118392976#Comment_118392976

Unacceptable to speculate that the next variant might not be much milder then Omicron? Are you joking or being serious? It's hard to tell.

Is speculating that the next variant might be much more mild than Omicron also Unacceptable? I would have thought speculation is fine as long as its phrased as speculation. It's a pretty normal thing to imagine more than the most ideal scenario.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393033#Comment_118393033

No you're not. The people who tell you they have Omicron are almost certainly talking out of their hat.

Seathrun66

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391770#Comment_118391770

😂😂 You go first. I'm still in happy holiday mode.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393282#Comment_118393282

I would quibble there because you said the original variant was between 2 + 3, then added 50% to get 5. You chose the max and rounded up the result and that affected subsequent multiplications.

if you started with 2 you would get:

2 + 50% = 3 for alpha

3 + 50% = 4.5 for delta

twice that = 9 for omicron as a R0.

(I know people don’t really use fractions for R values bit with multiple multiplications we probably should).

Wibbs

I only know two anti vaccination people. One is married to someone who has been vaccinated. The family got this pox a couple of weeks ago. They're all fine. The kids flew through it which is not too much of a shock, though one had worse symptoms, but still pretty mild. The main difference I noticed was the un vaccinated person had the same symptoms, but they were worse and lasted about double the time of the vaccinated person and are still lingering. The other non vaccinated person I know was in a kinda similar position and again their symptoms were worse and they lasted longer. These are people in their forties(other than the kids 😁). No underlying conditions, not overweight, pretty fit etc. Absolutely tiny fecking sample of course so all bets are off. EG the two people I know with the worst symptoms, but still "mild" in that they didn't need to get a doctor are both fully vaccinated and boosted in the last few weeks.

TL;DR? The science is pretty bloody clear; If you're under 60 your risk is low, but you could be one of the unlucky buggers and you don't know your genetic predisposition and you could well have underlying conditions(being fat is one of them BTW). Vaccines reduce the risks of serious illness and death and by quite a large margin across the board and reduce the frequency of symptoms even in mild cases. Get a vaccine.

PropJoe10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393515#Comment_118393515

No respect for those around you then, no?

Annasopra

Is there research that unvaxed people also more likely to get long covid

deholleboom

I have a hard time trying to find a simple non stratified number of patients in hospital, those with Covid or otherwise. The HSE data hub only mentions those with confirmed Covid. The official UK data does show it. I just want to see a total of hospital inpatients and compare it to other years. Any idea where to find that?

The irony is that there are so many reports of hospitals on the brink of collapse every winter PRE Covid, the trolley problem, over crowding etc, same as this year which is likely worse due to Covid but how much worse is my question. Adding extra Covid pressure on top normal winter pressure is of course a bad thing but if i could just make a calculation of the amount of money spent on Covid due to restrictions it is probably fair to say we couldve at least doubled the existing hospital capacity, paid staff a higher wage, fixed the yearly trolley problem, built specialised Covid clinics and more local facilities.

Restrictions have now become a default policy when hospitals seem to run into problems, a really bad thing i think.

The most recent Omicron developments are quite close to the ones i predicted in previous posts several weeks ago btw, you know, when everybody said we didnt have sufficient data yet. It is still the official line it seems with some glimpses of hope thrown in for good measure. I still think we are likely to end up with just under half the Delta numbers in hospital. That i think is the best scenario the official projections were putting out at the time some weeks ago. Personally i think it is closer to the max number we might see and could be less. Have any of the official projections changed lately? They should have..