The Omicron variant

TonyMaloney

Good news, lads. There's some new nphet modeling been released. Everybody loves nphet models

https://twitter.com/Mark_Coughlan/status/1476545666793054211?t=0evMhcPsaK_Cg9_byPkr2w&s=19

Dublenguy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118385902#Comment_118385902

I would not wish sickness on anyone, does look like they have dodged a bullet here. However hopefully when this is behind us, I will let them know they are gobshites.

purplefields

Two things concern me about Omicron (and future variants)

• It appears the people can catch both Delta and Omicron. Dr John Campbell shows a graph where the Y axis is a percent, which illustrates the proportion of Omicron is increasing. He (I believe incorrectly) attributes this to Omicron displacing Delta. What if its just the case that there are now simply much more cases of Omicron? Delta could be decreasing, even if it is, because people with Omicron are isolating so with less social interaction, can't catch it. So in January, we end up with two, parallel coronaviruses to contend with, that happily sit side by side. Consider future variants that also do not displace existing ones because they are almost a new strain. How many are we going to end up with?
• There is no guarantee that the next variant will be milder than Omicron (Wibbs post above). With the massive spread of Omicron we are likely to get a new variant sooner, and the next one could be much worse. Disease X.

Zebra3

And the next one could be always be much milder.

Seathrun66

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118390237#Comment_118390237

Czech population is 10.7m, twice ours. Deaths there today are 35 which is per capita 5.5 times ours. And that's only with 6,145 cases. The government isn't testing enough and people won't spend an enormous amount on private PCR tests. Slovakia today has 44 deaths, 14 times our current rate. Poland has 709 deaths, 31.5 times our death rate. Hungary 32 times. Lack of vaccination there a disaster, and hugely under-estimated cases disguising the real problem.

All this is proof that the vaccines are working and we're testing heavily. Both of which make me very happy.

purplefields

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118390989#Comment_118390989

It certainly could be.

However, when does it ever stop mutating? We have a cold-like disease that can be deadly or make people very sick, that keeps mutating and evading immunity. In 10 years, there could be 10-20 different versions of this all running in parallel, some worse than others.

You might be okay after catching the first five versions, and the sixth one may kill you.

Jinglejangle69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391050#Comment_118391050

Like the flu so.

fits

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391050#Comment_118391050

Yeah I was saying this here the other day. Some version of this virus could take out a good chunk of us yet.

Seathrun66

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118390294#Comment_118390294

Yes, I have several examples from relatives and pals in shared households where it's not spreading to everyone. Anecdotal only I know but this seems to be borne out by medical reporting. And throughout the pandemic I've never known more than two pals here to have Covid at the same time. Currently at least 11 pals/their family members are infected and all of them were taking precautions.

One woman had only gone out once in the past 8 days to have a booster shot and picked it up. I've been to the odd gig, movie and pub/restaurant in the last few months but am giving it a break for a few weeks. Feeling pretty positive about how it's going though, wee may be at the beginning of the end.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118390666#Comment_118390666

Think you misunderstand me. I was referring to transmissibility as an inherent property of the virus itself. (I.e. not accounting for prior immunity or differences in incubation time). Seen some fairly outlandish estimates of the R0 over the last few weeks. Not seen much evidence to support them. May change as we learn more though.

Not disputing Omicron is spreading extremely rapidly. That can be put down to a combination of being able to spread in those with prior immunity (greater pool of susceptible people) and a much shorter generation time (able to move between them quicker).

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118390957#Comment_118390957

There is no guarantee that the next variant will be milder than Omicron (Wibbs post above). With the massive spread of Omicron we are likely to get a new variant sooner, and the next one could be much worse. Disease X.

Sure, however there's also this part: What happens is they burn through the population with no immunity and you're left with the recovered who have some immunity and the dead who are, well, dead.

That was before vaccines too. So with each variant that comes along and especially with this current seemingly more infectious one, more people catch it, more people may die, but many many more people will recover and the recovered have some immunity. Now I'm talking about immune memory immunity, not antibodies, but IMHO there's a bloody obsession with antibodies and keeping them high. If we keep trying to push for constantly high levels of antibodies we'll be dosing people every six months with boosters forever. It's not workable. Never mind in the developing world where a large percentage haven't even got one vaccination yet. With a majority vaccinated population like Ireland with some boosters on top and community infection and recovery for the vast majority of people(which was always the case BTW) the longer this goes on the less dangerous it'll likely become. Not that the virus itself will get any less dangerous to a completely virgin population, but to a population that has a large amount of acquired immunity from vaccination and recovery.

For the elderly and the immunocompromised , the chronically sick who can't afford to catch it, then damned right boost them. They were and remain by far the most likely to be seriously ill and to die from this virus, so are the greasy wheels that need the oil. If you took people under 60 and people without underlying conditions(and the terribly unlucky) out of the equation we would likely not even noticed covid beyond a "bug going around".

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118390924#Comment_118390924

That was an unfortunate post ,giving the impression of wishing ill of others but on a purely linguistic point the word would be something of a mirror image of schadenfreude.

Rather than pleasure in others' pain it is annoyance at others' good fortune

Can anyone set that to German?

Freudenschade??

😏

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118390989#Comment_118390989

It could. And I certain hope its milder. But it might not be. Imagine the scenario if Omicron was as transmissable as it is but as harmful as Delta (or more harmful) then we'd be back towards lockdown restrictions.

We can hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Zebra3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391050#Comment_118391050

Sure we might die in car crashes or from air pollution or cancer, who knows?

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391238#Comment_118391238

Confelicity is the opposite to schadenfreude

My absolute favourite word since I heard about it.

Susie Dent 💙 (@susie_dent) Tweeted:

Confelicity: a much-underused word meaning delight in someone else's happiness; the opposite of Schadenfreude. https://twitter.com/susie_dent/status/919471913491206144?s=20

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391266#Comment_118391266

Speculating again without a shred of evidence or even a reference to someone educated in such matters that thinks what you think 🤔.

Jackben75

There will not be a disease x, it is widely accepted the covid virus cannot mutate into a deadly disease like for example ebola. The only scenario is if there is another cross infection (zoonotic), then Disease X may come into play. Most likely the virus will burn out, 3rd world countries may take a while longer. 2022 should be the curtain call for the virus, I even debate we will need yearly booster shots similar to the flu.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391296#Comment_118391296

Yes ,a nice word but not quite a discomfort in the other's pleasure or good fortune.

And a German version would sound more authoritative?

Or even Irish?

😉

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391315#Comment_118391315

Yeah I should think that's pretty clearly what we were doing when we didn't make any predictions, assert what will happen or assign any probabilities. I didn't think it would cause any confusion with or be mistaken for anything except speculation. Surprised you needed to point it out.

The poster I quoted expressed a hope that it would continue to get milder and I agreed. We both did so "without a shred of evidence or even a reference to someone educated in such matters that thinks what you think".

I actually know the difference between speculation and asserting wishes or fears as a fact. I was careful to express what I meant. Sorry you felt the need to check that a sentence starting with "imagine if..." is speculation.

Seathrun66

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391296#Comment_118391296

I don't mean to rain on your parade but it's not a real word, not yet anyway, may catch on if people start using it and change its meaning slightly. The basis is con (Latin for with) and felicitas (Latin for happiness/good luck). It thus applies to someone having their own good fortune and doesn't mean enjoying someone else's good luck. But, as before, it could all change if people start using it in that way as we've seen from loads of new words.

Confelicity duderino. All the best for 2022.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391714#Comment_118391714

I considereal my parade lightly drizzled upon. But I'm sure you don't feel any schadenfreude.

This chat is far too cordial for this thread. Should one of us call the other a dickhead to get back on track? 😁

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391296#Comment_118391296

The fact that one of those words is better known than the other, and the better known one isn't even in English, is telling.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391770#Comment_118391770

Alright Pimmelkopf

https://hinative.com/en-US/questions/340543

😀

mojesius

My husband had several positive PCR tests in the run up to Christmas, positive PCR on Christmas Eve and I'm testing negative on antigens every 2 days and kids seem fine. Husband had negative antigen today. I'm waiting for a referral for PCR tests from my GP to make sure kids and myself are clear, but we are looking good here :)

Stheno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391980#Comment_118391980

Unless you are boosted you should self isolate for 10 days.

You're nearly done though Sunday would be 10 days

mojesius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391987#Comment_118391987

We are isolating..can't isolate individually with a toddler and baby here :)

TobyHolmes

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391980#Comment_118391980

be prepared that you might test positive on PCR (which shows its in your system and can be in very low levels not picked up by the antigen test) but negative on Antigen (which shows you have enough of the virus to be infectious).

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391614#Comment_118391614

Your assertion that it might get more virulent in the future is where I take issue.

It's just thoughts in your head. Why even spout such assertions when not even the the most pessimistic scientists come out with your ideas.

discostu1

I wonder is this "kite flying" it is possible that Israel will go down the Herd Immunity route how are we all fixed for Omicron Parties What a herd immunity policy would look like, and why it may be premature for Israel | The Times of Israel

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118392267#Comment_118392267

I didn't say that. I did say that the next one might jot be much milder than Omicron. Any point explainable distinction between those things to you? In any case the assertion that the next variant might not be much milder than Omicron is an odd thing to take issue with.

Have you any issue to take with the poster who adserted that the next one could be much milder? One could say they were "Speculating again without a shred of evidence or even a reference to someone educated in such matters that thinks what you think".