The Omicron variant

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118379465#Comment_118379465

From what I can gather, infection would give you temporary immunity for about 12 weeks or so. But the fact that they are now giving the booster to people three months after they had a Covid infection tells us the scientists think the effects are indeed temporary and whatever immunity it gives wears off relatively quickly.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118379643#Comment_118379643

Thanks.

just to go a bit further, do we know if immunity is higher from the booster or infection during those 12 weeks.

I suppose it's too soon to tell how long immunity from the booster lasts.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118379669#Comment_118379669

I'm guessing the science thinks that the levels of immunity are in and around the same level. It's noticeable that both the natural immunity from infection and booster shot for Omicron seem to start wearing off at around the same 10-12 week point (according to up to date studies), suggesting that immunity levels from both are indeed at the same level.

corkie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118379513#Comment_118379513

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-ukhsa-update-on-omicron-risk-assessment-and-s-gene-target-failure/

How PCR possibly detect omicron has been explained before many times.

It is why we have the 83% figure of possible cases.

But to have a confirmed case it takes expensive and time-consuming genome sequencing.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118333459#Comment_118333459

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118379705#Comment_118379705

So if it starts waning after 10-12 weeks then we'll probably still have good immunity* for another while after that. So maybe another 12 weeks for example. So that takes us up to summer and gives us time to plan ahead for next winter.

So hopefully we'll have a much shorter period of restrictions, and lighter restrictions than last year. So hopefully far better spring and summer than last year. Much better than last year.

* By immunity I mean reduced likelihood of infection and reduced likelihood of serious illness.

Questionequals

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118379239#Comment_118379239

really wish we could learn exactly how many in hospital with covid symptoms alone. How many each day are in hospital for other issues but test positive for covid and are asymptomatic for covid. Also anyone on here know for sure the number of cycles ran on PCR test carried out for vaccinated in hospital is it the same number of cycles as in test centres? Omicron appears to be much more infectious because it infects the bronchial tubes but has very little/ much less effect on lung tissue. Making for a milder illness in most. But because it’s so infectious a great many in hospital will be positive with little or no symptoms. So yes review of isolation protocol in these circumstances would seem sensible, for the sake of all those in hospital for whatever reason.

TonyMaloney

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118379428#Comment_118379428

I wasn't suggesting nphet would use last Christmas to hammer their point home.

More that, having been responsible for the enormous fiasco last year, I think the gov would be quick to accept most recommendations. Especially as the eyes of the world could well be on us again.

Sierra Oscar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118379182#Comment_118379182

We're already reaching that point. There are going to be serious pressures on public services such as healthcare, policing, education and transport in the coming days. Anecdotally speaking I've heard of a serious number of people getting positive antigen tests in recent days and awaiting the outcome of PCR testing. Businesses are going to experience the same pressures too, it will have a huge impact on the economy.

I think they'll have to relax the self-isolation and restricted movement requirements.

The number of close contacts each person has is hovering in and around 4, it could be higher at the moment due to Christmas. If the case numbers continue to be in and around 10,000 in the coming days then we will have hundreds of thousands of people restricting their movements or self isolating by mid-January. It could easily impact 25% of the population rapidly, and that is not sustainable for public services or the wider economy in general.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118379754#Comment_118379754

I guess too that they're thinking that case numbers of Omicron will start to fall in a few weeks time, meaning that even if immunity starts to fall, so too will the general risk of infection, so that the booster vaccine may well buy them time well beyond the initial 12 weeks.

TonyMaloney

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118379585#Comment_118379585

I didn't reply to you earlier because I was looking at the data that clearly shows that Czech rep and particularly Slovakia have tested way above our levels, and I just couldn't bring myself to be arsed to get into with you.

Incidence level isn't measured on one day figures.

TonyMaloney

14 day incidence has us the worst in Europe, and it's not getting any better.

We've all but caught up with Denmark who had a sizeable headstart which suggests our growth rate is insane.

https://twitter.com/NoonanJoe/status/1475537811293945858?t=ZnUSEMMGe53JJG0GkQSd7A&s=19

This is pretty significant. A cause for concern was that infection from Omicron offered little cross protection against Delta. Study below suggests that Omicron infections offers enhanced protection against Delta in particular for those vaccinated.

https://twitter.com/sigallab/status/1475584463941914635?s=20

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118379871#Comment_118379871

On a pure antedotal level nearly everyone locally is being tested,pos antigen and waiting for the proper test and isolating,waiting for results,or just over it

I think we are facing into a january of sporadic business closures/open behind closed doors for click and collect due to staff shortage,public transport grinding to a halt....possibly army may be deployed to keep food deliveries/essential services running

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118379972#Comment_118379972

I seen that was posted on another thread. It's Christmas, you need to realize some countries may not report over the Christmas.

Case in point, the UK is actually at 2000 per 100k and Ireland are at 1884 per 100k. The figures the Guardian was using didn't have the figures for 25/26 Dec so it appears they are lower than they are.

Stheno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118380007#Comment_118380007

Wow. That's good news. Plus the CDC in the US have halved isolation for those infected from 10 to 5 days and removed the need for those who are boostered to self isolate if they are close contacts

WoollyRedHat

Is there any data available on the reverse I.E. infected with Delta or previous variant and protection that offers against OM?

washman3

Are people who are now testing positive being informed what version/variant they have.?

Or is there somewhere they can find out.?

TonyMaloney

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118380024#Comment_118380024

You make a fair point, but honestly I just chucked that in there at the end because it was a good source. To be honest I'm not really sure if the point in a 14 day incidence rate with such a fast moving virus.

When i said we were fourth behind Denmark and two micro states I was using worldometer's 7-day data.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118380141#Comment_118380141

As already pointed out, lots of countries didn't release figures over Christmas so their 7 and 14 day rates are artificially low. Also, we are clearly testing far more than most countries. Unless our hospital numbers sky rocket over the next 10 days I think we are in good shape. Its not like last Christmas when we really had the highest rate in Europe. When numbers for everywhere get over Christmas anomalies I suspect we will be mid table.

WoollyRedHat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118380116#Comment_118380116

You're not told what variant you have, but once new variant has been dominant strain for a decent length of time, it can be presumed.

franciscanpunk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376899#Comment_118376899

i agree with you that incidentals will be low going into hospitals but as weve seen hospitals are a hot bed for infectikn and spread. staff will have very high infection rates given the nature of their work so yes, they incidental cases should be low of people being tested on day 1 but come day 5 testing it will be way more impactfull

TonyMaloney

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118380221#Comment_118380221

Ok, so what countries didn't report?

I've checked Europe and the only country that hasn't reported since Christmas is Sweden. Which is pretty normal for them I believe.

discostu1

CDC moving the goal posts re isolation and Quarantine ....can we be far behind

CDC shortens recommended Covid-19 isolation and quarantine time - CNN

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118380263#Comment_118380263

Subject to correction a few reporting en bulk today with figures for 25, 26 and 27 Dec (including Denmark I thought - certainly from the usual Google table I tend to look at) so, I'm assuming, a lot of the league tables we are seeing today don't yet capture those 3 days. If I have this wrong, I apologise. Tomorrow's league tables will pick up the anomaly if I'm correct.

Seathrun66

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118379926#Comment_118379926

Source please? Or stop inventing stuff.

On two days this week we've had more cases than the Slovaks have had tests.

TonyMaloney

Seathrun66

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118379972#Comment_118379972

As before the cases are clearly not the issue. The deaths are. It's very simple.

We're heavily testing and many countries with much higher levels are not. Hence countries with much lower levels of cases than us are experiencing current death rates at several levels of our own - Slovakia (11 times), Poland (6 times), Bulgaria (30 times). These countries are currently experiencing more per capita daily deaths than weekly deaths in Ireland. The UK death rate is very similar to ours but France is 2.5 times higher, etc, etc.

Take a look at the figures tomorrow and compare deaths for a far truer picture of how European countries are getting on with this latest wave. We are very very far from being the worst on the continent, but indeed at the most successful end.

TobyHolmes

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118380018#Comment_118380018

army deployed... ru serious... for omnicron- no way

TonyMaloney

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118380464#Comment_118380464

Sorry, but you haven't the first clue what you're talking about and I'm bored to tears with it at this stage.

You're missing a lot of the basics. The stuff most of us came to understand at the beginning of the pandemic. I don't have the time or the inclination to get you up to speed on all of it.

Perhaps if you become a little less hostile and sure of yourself someone else can help you. Bye

h2005

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118380472#Comment_118380472

Personally I think the CDC moved to reduce the isolation period is to avoid this scenario. We are facing into a situation where essential services will suffer if the current isolation and quarantine requirements continue. Plenty of businesses have had to close up at various times due to outbreaks, and that’s pre our recent spike. With the virus becoming more prevalent, I can see why some believe the army may need to be called in for some essential services.

The CDC approach with a negative antigen test would to me be the most logical approach.