The Omicron variant

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376871#Comment_118376871

The Canadian doctor being quoted above says the risk of contracting severe pneumonia from Omicron is much higher in any unvaccinated person (and this is a guy who believes in a 'best case' scenario re. the variant). This also makes a nonsense of the 'it's just another form of mild cold' claims. How would large numbers of people who have had three dedicated vaccines in the space of six months be still getting sick and becoming symptomatic from something as harmless as a 'mild cold'?

patnor1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376883#Comment_118376883

There are so few people here who are unvaccinated (while most of them did not take vaccine simply because they already had covid) that this kind of "concern" is pointless anyway.

Lumen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376871#Comment_118376871

SA population was something like 70% seropositive with strong recent immunity due to the Delta wave that immediately preceded Omicron.

That plus age structure of population was why there was doubt over how well the SA experience would translate to Europe.

Lumen

With respect to the old "with" vs "for" argument about hospital or death stats, it would be nice if those claiming to want answers could help find them, otherwise the demand for better data looks a lot like sealioning.

I think the base assumption should be that in the absence of better data, incidental infection in hospital roughly affects the same proportion of patients as the positivity rate in the general population.

I don't think the Irish system does that kind of reporting, but the UK does, and from the most recent report

An estimated 1,202,300 people in England had COVID-19 in the most recent week, equivalent to 1 in 45 people. In Scotland, an estimated 76,200 people had COVID-19, or 1 in 70 people.

The estimated number of people living in private households (not in hospitals, care homes and/or other communal establishments) that had COVID-19 in the most recent week was:

- England – 1,202,300 people (1 in 45)

- Wales – 54,400 people (1 in 55)

- Northern Ireland – 37,800 people (1 in 50)

- Scotland – 76,200 people (1 in 70)

Even if hospital percentages were higher, we're still talking about a low probability of incidental infection, not enough to greatly change the picture.

Lumen

On second thoughts, I'm not sure my analysis holds up.

Looking at it from a different angle: if nobody was hospitalised from COVID, how many people in hospital would have COVID, if the incidence was the same as in the general population?

If we have 14,500 beds and 90% occupancy, that's 13k patients in hospital. Taking a community incidence of 2%, that's about 260 people in hospital with COVID but not from COVID.

Yesterday we had 426 COVID positives in hospital.

So the incidentals ought to be significant, and particularly might contribute a large proportion of the rise in COVID patients when community incidence rises.

Source of bed stats:

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2021/1123/1262560-covid-19-ireland-hospitals-icu-capacity/

deholleboom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376944#Comment_118376944

I like your 'on second thoughts', Lumen. Kudos to you to re-examine the data. There mustve been something niggling in your brain resulting in a recheck. That is exactly how (personal) progress works.

With so many things speculation with preliminary data is hard to resist. It is good to adjust a view, projection with incoming data. We all need to do that. It is a problem for policy makers having to make decisions and selling it to a skeptical audience. My take on it is that the general population is pretty compliant as most neither have the time or will to go digging for data and some of the more interested people just seem to fall for the overall confirmation bias. Nothing wrong with that but one has to play devil's advocate with oneself from time to time and that does not happen that often. A skeptical person would or should.

rahmalec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376944#Comment_118376944

Only one thing with that though ...

If the incidence rate is 2% right now, then yes, we’d expect 1 in 50 to show up in hospital with Covid. But those 13k in hospital would have shown up there at various times over the past weeks/month, etc. So there maybe needs to be some time average over that the incidence over the last month to get a better idea.

but ...

the hospital being an indoor space with close contact, etc, there may be a risk of outbreaks which would increase the amount of people “with Covid” beyond the incidence of the general population.

Anyway, I’d say we’ll see a rise in hospital cases soon, at least initially from people “with Covid” as opposed to from, but then maybe some from as well depending on what the actual risk of hospitalisation from omicron is.

landofthetree

https://twitter.com/drraghibali/status/1475395444817764353

landofthetree

Timmy O Toole

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376860#Comment_118376860

I've had no vaccine and I definitely do want to catch this because my covid pass expired!

fm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376766#Comment_118376766

Some people can't handle positive news anymore,it's sad really.You question a doctor's view who is in the middle of it in a hospital currently and has been through out it by the sounds of it,but you know better obviously. I'm sure if it was bad news from that doctor you would be all over it.

Stormyteacup

When community transmission is high, as it is now, HAI is estimated to be between 20-30%. From Government doc, dated January 2021.. page 42 has graphs for HAI.

https://assets.gov.ie/122391/7c2b845e-7fb3-432a-9cad-4d23f7df39e0.pdf

Here’s a response from the Heath minister to Alan Kelly dated 21st February 2021. Alan Kelly is seeking information on breakdown of hospital cases versus hospital acquired cases. Some waffle from the minister in the reply.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/about/personalpq/pq/2021-pq-responses/january-2021/pq-4286-21-alan-kelly.pdf

Multipass

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376860#Comment_118376860

The vast majority have mild symptoms from all strains even if unvaccinated. People lost sense of the individual risk long ago.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376827#Comment_118376827

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376839#Comment_118376839

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376883#Comment_118376883

People get sick and become symptomatic from mild colds. It's a question of degree and the percentages who become really sick. In Ireland 90% of all deaths from Covid 19 were in the over 65's. 40% of all deaths were in the over 85's. The median age of death from covid was a couple of months off the median age of death in Ireland minus covid.

The vaccines made a huge difference in the serious illness and death rates, especially in the vulnerable demographics. That the age demographic has trended downwards in ICU patients and at least half of them are unvaccinated shows this.

However even if we had never developed vaccines this pox is heavily weighted towards injuring and killing the old and chronically ill. For the vast majority of everyone else it is "harmless". Hell, even if you were 86 you still had a 90% chance of surviving covid before vaccines.

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118377149#Comment_118377149

I only know two unvaccinated adults. Both in their forties. One is fit, the other a bit of a wreck. Both caught this omricon dose in the last fortnight. Comparing them to the vaccinated adults I know who caught it I did notice some difference. The vaccinated had a "glorified headcold", the unvaccinated were still mild, but it was much more like a flu. It's lasted longer too. The vaccinated headcold types were clear of it within days, the unvaccinated still have lingering symptoms over a week later. Serious fatigue, taking to the bed/sofa for the day being the main one. Given the choice I'd rather catch it vaccinated.

Though it can be a crap shoot too. Of the two above the bit of a wreck guy is coming out of it faster. When I got covid last January I didn't notice anything amiss until I got a positive PCR. Then I noticed my sense of smell vanishing. That was it. No fever, cough, fatigue. Nada. Yet one of the others caught in the same PCR testing group ended up needing supplemental oxygen and he was younger and way fitter than me. He took months to get back to normal too. Many of the rest were fecked and in bed with difficulty breathing.

Timmy O Toole

You've know idea weather it what variant it was that they caught.

I know of a bunch of people who caught it at an event just prior to xmas and then went back to their bubbles and spread it around. Spread like wildfire. What is interesting is that the vaxxed were sick as a dog (out of action for days, vomiting, headaches), while several unvaxxed in their bubbles didn't get unwell at all. One of them got a sore throat for less than a day, gone the next morning.

These are anecdotal reports of course, they mean nothing in the grand scheme of things. But interesting nonetheless. It's important that we have a good population of unvaccinated people in the country to act as a control group for long term studies.

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118377325#Comment_118377325

In the recent/current cases I personally know it spread across a few households after two people came home from London for Christmas two weeks ago. London is and was the epicentre for omricon in these islands, so chances are extremely high it was omricon. It was also very mild including in two unvaccinated people(though they did have worse symptoms). Runny noses, bit of a fever and fatique were the main symptoms, only two got coughs and it spread like wildfire. Of those I know who caught covid pre vaccines early this year and before it seemed to be an odd mix of a minority with near zero symptoms, but the majority who were symptomatic were worse, had strong fevers and all got coughs, but no runny noses and it lasted much longer and took longer to come on.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118377325#Comment_118377325

Are you Nigel Molesworth's Irish cousin?

deholleboom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118377229#Comment_118377229

It seems to follow the 'berrie' trajectory in which a population finds out people are dying from eating red berries so the red berries are found and destroyed. Then the less deadly purple berries create issues so they are collected. The blue berries who still cause sickness but no deaths are then concidered a threat. In other words, the set bar changes with circumstances and new rules are created for them. One could argue about the need when seen in relation to the original red berries but that is usually forgotten.

I take issue with the continuing mission creep. Once you have succeeded people in complying with the first set of rules you have established a policy direction governments can implement again and the people will overall comply more easily. Couple it with fear and restrictions seem like the logical ones and the people resisting idiots.

Bobtheman

When will we be locked down?

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118377502#Comment_118377502

I don't think there will be lockdown. Certainly not like last year. Maybe some additional restrictions but probably not. Things are looking better than later year and better than the central scenario. Pretty optimistic, all in all.

Why do you think there will be lockdown?

Bobtheman

An ICU nurse said system on verge of being over whelmed

Icantthinkof1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118377775#Comment_118377775

As in because of ICU staff out isolating/ testing positive?

iLikeWaffles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118377431#Comment_118377431

Seems like your fallacy is in comparing Covid to something that is and was only found out after the fact of ingesting. It was once thought tomatoes were poisonous so people didn't eat them. In fact the roots, leaves, and to an extent the unripened fruit of the tomato plant is poisonous. It would take a good quantity of the plant to cause death and that is in much the same way that Covid is deadly to what some here will call a minority in society - the difference being it would take only a small quantity of the dangerous parts of the tomato plant to kill them. In general though if something has been tasted and it is bitter then it will likely cause you problems, so it comes down to the scale of it. Covid is wide spread so it is large scale, you will be hard pressed to find anywhere in the world that has recorded 0 cases in their society. In comparison to dangerous foraging activities; being infected by Covid from lack of social awareness and or the complete lack of cautiousness is the equivalent of looking at someone eating that poisonous fruit and not telling them it will kill you.

TonyMaloney

I was curious as to why we have one of the very highest incidence levels on the planet, so took a look at the much-maligned mobility data. I think I found at least part of the answer. Our current restrictions are almost entirely based on what google terms "Retail & Recreation". Ie: Hospitality.

And I'm not sure exactly why, but they do not appear to have worked AT ALL.

Here's every EU country plus a few others like the UK and Norway

For a bit more clarity, here's the same chart but featuring only European omicron hotspots. Oh, and the Netherlands just for illustrative purposes (they're in a harsh lockdown)

We are an outlier. Big time. Around December 13th our behaviour seemingly started to become increasingly less risk adverse in many ways. The exact opposite intent of the restrictions applied.

TheDriver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118377775#Comment_118377775

Solution a) HSE finally deals with our hospital capacity or b) impose unnecessary restrictions on the entire population to cover their own inefficiency.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118377805#Comment_118377805

Guess it's like last orders. If you predict ridiculous restrictions based on past behaviour, go and do stuff now.

TobyHolmes

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118377359#Comment_118377359

and u know this why... because they said it...i wouldnt put it past the unvaccinated to downplay their symptoms to prove a point