The Omicron variant

harmless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118421190#Comment_118421190

Which came first, the saying or the ABBA song?

amandstu

Are there any of the omicron statistics on the likes of the Worldometers site that have not been royally skewed by the Christmas/New year holidays?

Some countries (eg Germany Belgium)show a peak that passed and is now going back up.

Are those graphs completely unreliable for the present?

Is the omicron wave still going up in every single country in Europe?

Large bottle small glass

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118421190#Comment_118421190

As of last November Tomãs Ryan stated that HEPA filters in every classroom would cost circa €20M.

At that stage €50M had already been spent in school alone for hand sanitizer; which has/will do sweet fcuk all to reduce transmission.

The slowness with issuing HEPA filters might be a fear that it's the thin end of wedge with regard ALL public buildings and indeed in time private buildings.

I wouldn't be surprised if there is intense lobbying against bringing in standards for air hygiene.

Orla the Twitter academic architect has been right about one thing for quite a while. The horse has bolted now though

deholleboom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118421400#Comment_118421400

I think the general informed view is that reporting has been sketchy during the holidays, that case numbers in reality are much higher (double?) than reported and that infection numbers are bound to go up especially as schools are reopening with multi generational spread. The outlier as supposedly being the earliest in the Omicron wave is London where numbers are going down lately. The hope is other areas/countries will follow possibly 10-14 days later. Then another week or so for hospital numbers to drop coinciding with the annual drop in winter hospitalisations end of january- early feb. I take it governments will start to look at easing of restrictions when hospital numbers start to fall. Looks like first week in february to me. Until then dont get your hopes up outside of antigen tests for close contacts etc. Hospitality sector last in line as usual, schools first. Just watch what happens in London and you can then do the math. Ireland will watch the others move first, also as usual and be slower in easing restrictions w continued focus on hospitals, disrupted services etc.My guess: second week in february.

Of course i may be wrong but i do have a good record apart from the early stages of the pandemic like everyone else..🙂. Watch that space and call me wrong when i am..

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118422791#Comment_118422791

That sounds about right. Might be a bit on the optimistic side hut it's realistic to hope for the scenario you outline above. Beginning to ease restrictions some time in February would be good.

deholleboom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118422803#Comment_118422803

I am optimistic because of the growing realisation that Omicron is both milder and faster so if the trajectory is the same as in SA this thing will rise and fall quick. It is just that nagging 'two more weeks' viral particle in certain circles that keeps raising its ugly head that prevents me from being more optimistic. Plus MM/EU with the booster/QR program running into spring/summer.

ginoginelli

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118422270#Comment_118422270

QFT.

I definitely think money is the main reason why the goverment here have not introduced an air hygiene policy.

The continued infatuation with hand hygiene, and the resourses wasted on it, once we had established the virus was primarily airborne and very rarely transmitted via formite, is an absolute scandal.

It hasn't helped either that the HSE clinical lead - Martin Cormican - who sits on all the major hse bodies for covid like HIQA and AMRIC, among others, has built his career on the merits of handwashing. He has several medical journals printed on the subject pre dating covid. He was the main voice of opposition agaisnt masks for the general public and most recently masks and heppa filters in school, and even now seems unwilling to accept the likelihood of formite transmission. The man is literally obsessed with handwashing.

Hes been a useful idiot for the goverment in countering calls from the media and opposition for air filtration systems to be introduced.

Banana Republic 1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118421219#Comment_118421219

Don’t know 🤷‍♂️

Banana Republic 1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118422270#Comment_118422270

exactly cause there’s no such thing “fresh air” anymore especially if you are within as ass-z roar of a road and or urban area **** even in your home chemicals are rampant in the air. With regard to an understanding of air quality Irish society is desperately behind the curve.

Banana Republic 1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118422791#Comment_118422791

I can’t help but feel it’s all a comical Ali act. How could the pubs et al remain open if the true numbers were reported, probably at least 40000 a day. How could schools stay open ? Instead they put the brakes on testing availability to give top cover for the boys, propaganda Phil 🧐

corkie

Omicron, as anticipated

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfZ62aWf6pk

And he poked fun at himself in an old facebook post.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118424008#Comment_118424008

100% this.

The handwashing fetish is ridiculous. So is the absence of any focus on clean air, ventilation, air purification and previously reluctance to use masks at all and later in school setting.

So for Omicron... is this fella recommending soaking one's hands in the sink for a whole day to stop transmission of an airborne/droplet virus? 🤣

deholleboom

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/12/maybe-no-omicron-boosters.html

a bit of a downer. Instead of pushing for Omicron specific boosters which pharma has developed official bodies are trying to halt their roll out. Partly because they want the current boosters to keep going into peoples' arms now and fear new Omicron specific boosters will come too late with the Omicron wave passing quickly and people will feel no need to take the new vaccine once it has passed and natural immunity greatly enhanced. It is also milder so less of a scare story. Plus, a new variant is likely to emerge possibly not from the same lineage as Omicron. They wouldnt want a new vaccine every 6 months even though they are pushing the original, wild type vaccine boosters which help much less against Omicron.

So, my hopes are dashed. With new rules brought in w Covid passes linked to boosters it looks like i just have to get Omicron to be able to enjoy my freedom just like any anti (Covid) vaxxer. Unless of course they make boosters compulsory even when you have had Omicron. Then they wouldnt have a scientific leg to stand on. It looks many countries are lining up to do just that..

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118425323#Comment_118425323

How would you know if you've had Omicron?

Yes, it looks like boosters will be needed to be considered fully vaccinated. Looks like it's likely to be introduced for international travel.

The UK is removibg the need for tests before travel and after arriving. It didn't apply to Ireland anyway but good to see some restrictions being lifted.

Leftwaffe

What a gift Omiron has been. Pandemic all over bar the shouting. Our government essentially admitting defeat. An extremely mild variant giving us a blanket of immunity. Soon all restrictions will be lifted. Glorious.

Lumen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118425898#Comment_118425898

Assuming Omicron infection is about as effective as the vaccine was against the original strain, i.e. around 95%, and the Omicron r0 is approx 8 (I've seen qualified estimates as high as 10) then we would need approx 92% of the population to be infected. Even at a linear rate of 70k infections a day, that would take another 7 weeks or so.

It's possible that the infection rate will drop over time, drawing this thing out, but anyone's guess really. UK doesn't seem to have dropped as fast as SA.

deholleboom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118425820#Comment_118425820

You would know it by symptoms and antigen/pcr test or, if not symptomatic by an antibody test tracing Omicron antibodies as evidence you have had the Omicron virus. Several commercial companies facilitate in that. It costs not much more than a standard PCR test.

If you want to catch Omicron now is the best time. The longer the spread the least chance of you getting it as community immunity builds up. An ironic byproduct of this that antivaxxers are now actively looking to get it and thus hope to regain some freedom, the opposite of those trying to flatten the curve through restrictions. The law of unintended consequences. But the boost squad are sharpening their knives, cutting their templates for the stamp of approval unimpeded by scientic evidence and efficacy. They refuse to put this weapon down, even solidifying it through laws and regulations into the future. It just feels too nice in the hands of those with feelings of superiority..sad😔.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118426041#Comment_118426041

So unless you pay for a test to confirm it, you wouldn't know?

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118425898#Comment_118425898

Immunity begins to fade after about 12 weeks. So assuming it still gives some decent protection for the next 3 months, we could expect a decent summer but we're back to being vulnerable again next winter.

This strain being less harmful has been great. If ICU numbers behave, we won't need any more restrictions this winter and hopefully they can be relaxed before too long.

While you idea of blanket immunity is great, we will require boosters and would be at the mercy of further variants. Next winter is likely to be the next big test.

Banana Republic 1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118426468#Comment_118426468

12 weeks, less harmful, where do you get your degree in virology?

Zebra3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118426468#Comment_118426468

We’ve been vulnerable every winter.

Let’s not give those who allow our shambolic health service to go unreformed, a free pass.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118427105#Comment_118427105

I think it's been pretty well established that immunity begins to fade from 10-12 weeks. Not to say it vanishes but it diminishes quickly from that point to offer good protection until about 6 months. Im not interpreting brand new science, its established.

I don't claim to have any qualifications in virology. That's why I wait until there's some concensus around the facts instead of buying into every new piece of research.

Maybe the concensus has changed. But I understand that immunity wanes from the 10-12 week mark. What's your understand?

silverharp

good news if true

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1478998260400414720

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118427129#Comment_118427129

Yeah I'd support more investment in the health service. It would mean building in capacity in infrastructure staff to handle the big demand periods which would mean the same staff would have less to do the rest of the time but I'm sure they could be put to good use.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118427502#Comment_118427502

"Immunity" to what?

Protection against reinfection? Against symptoms? Against serious disease? Death?

We know antibody titers begin to wane after 3 months or less in both cases (vaccine/infection), but that doesnt mean that you'll end up unprotected.

deholleboom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118427583#Comment_118427583

Yes, that is correct. The official message was :"waning immunity". No need to examine the details. Leave it up to the experts. Well...

Leftwaffe

If immunity wanes after three months from Omicron it’s really not an issue. It’s a cold. People get colds all the time. Some get it worse than others, that’s life. There will be sickness and there will be good health. Time to move on it’s done.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118427737#Comment_118427737

What 'cold' leaves people in hospital and ICU and needs three vaccine doses to protect against it?

celt262

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118427876#Comment_118427876

Not many have got 3 doses to fend off Omicron ?

Supercell

If the other coronavirus varients (aka regular colds) have been in the community effectively forever without causing widespread deaths, is there any reason to not think COVID-19 is heading down the same path ? Do the other coronavirus ever evolve into something more scary from time to time?