The Omicron variant

03-01-2022 11:08am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409490#Comment_118409490

Not really..

Can't have people being told how they were manipulated..

El_Duderino 09 · 03-01-2022 11:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409240#Comment_118409240

Well, I said I was doing them every few days and on the days we moved from one house to the other. Apart from that the only places I go indoors is food shopping. The rest is all outdoors.

Not wanting to give it to my family is not patriotic, doing the tests every few days to make sure I can isolate and not spreading around anywhere to anyone else is the small patriotic act, as I see it.

The tests are relatively cheap now. I'm not wealthy but I can afford 3 or 4 tests a week while transmission is high. I have been slagged off for my approach with inferences to the left (and loads of buzzwords like white knight) in the last few pages but you might or might not have noticed that I haven't told anyone else what to do. I've just said what I do any why I do it.

03-01-2022 11:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409503#Comment_118409503

Of course dear. Manipulated, that's right. *pat's head*

Would you like to tell us how you came across this opinion piece?

03-01-2022 11:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409514#Comment_118409514

Saw it on infowars..

03-01-2022 11:13am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409521#Comment_118409521

That's about right.

El_Duderino 09 · 03-01-2022 11:19am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409270#Comment_118409270

My understanding is that lateral flow tests catch about 70% of symptoms cases and about 60% asymptomatic cases so less effective on asymptomatic cases but would you call 60% next to useless?

It's policy in the UK to advise using lateral flow tests a few times a week to catch asymptomatic cases and they give them out in packs of 7 for free. My friends over there say they rarely take them for the craic but they'd take them before meeting other people and I presume usage has become more frequent since Omicron.

jackboy · 03-01-2022 11:21am

Still waiting to be convinced why large scale antigen tests are useful for Omicron. Omicron is raging through the population. The minor restrictions that we have and PCR testing did not have a useful impact it seems. Antigen tests are being massed used but also seemingly are not helping as the virus is already too widespread. Seems to me the only way of slowing this virus down is increased restrictions. The alternative is to keep doing what we are doing, letting the virus burn through the population and hope we can handle the impact of that.

El_Duderino 09 · 03-01-2022 11:28am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409548#Comment_118409548

Well, there are other alternatives, such and increased restrictions. Those would most likely result from your preferred approach of letting it "burn through the population ".

My preferred approach would be for everyone to do their own bit to reduce transmission and try to keep it manageable within the restrictions we have. Increased transmission and letting it "burn through the population" is more likely to lead to increased restrictions.

I might be wrong but I doubt you'd ever come back and say "well, I advocated for letting it burn through the population. But it turns out that approach led to tighter restrictions which will last longer. I'll have to adjust my approach as I was wrong about this".

jackboy · 03-01-2022 11:32am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409577#Comment_118409577

Hold on, we are letting it burn through the population now, that is the current approach. The minor measures we are taking are having almost no impact on the virus spread.

ginoginelli · 03-01-2022 11:36am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409538#Comment_118409538

The Dutch reported as low as 30 % on the most common used brand in Holland. We are getting a lot of mixed reports about how effective they are wit omicron too.

Saying that though, they are still a really useful tool, Most sensible people I know are using them daily now.

But we do need better messaging on their limitations as well as when and how to use the tests. The government should be running a mass media education program on them.

is_that_so · 03-01-2022 11:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409577#Comment_118409577

There are no possible restrictions that could affect this variant and it is in effect ripping through the population. People controlling their own ability to transmit it is about the only measure we can use usefully. It's not all about cases and despite the surge in recent days hospitals are still not at the panic stations of last year. I am surprised to find I agree with the UK call to leave things more or less as they are, IMO one of the few times their approach has looked right.

03-01-2022 11:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409592#Comment_118409592

What is your evidence for that? How many cases, hospitalisations and deaths do you believe there would be today if we simply stopped taking any measures once Omicron became dominant?

jackboy · 03-01-2022 11:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409628#Comment_118409628

We are taking very few measures and more are being infected than we can possibly test for. We had far more measures this time last year for delta and those measures were a failure, we had to go for hard lockdown. I don’t think it is credible to say that our current measures are significantly hampering the spread of Omicron.

03-01-2022 11:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409657#Comment_118409657

So, to answer my question, you believe that if we stopped taking any measures once Omicron became dominant, the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths would be negligibly higher than it currently is, is that right?

timmymagoo · 03-01-2022 12:08pm

If the virus is now so transmissible that there is 20,000 daily positive cases and the experts say unofficially it is 40,000 per day but could be as high as 60,000

That's the whole country by end of January

Why do we need any testing? Why do we need masks? Why do we need any restrictions?

I think we need to let it rip and we should have done it from the start of this

My reasons are this; Covid is never going away and there is a remote possibility we get a virus that will be very dangerous, we need herd immunity and we need antibodies to stop a potential covid virus with a 10% mortaliy rate running rampant

Can someone tell me I am wrong and please use your own words, don't give me links to jibber jabber

deholleboom · 03-01-2022 12:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409501#Comment_118409501

That looks like a fair point although people usually take an antigen test prior to pcr. All this testing of course does not prevent people from spreading it much but one might argue a positive antigen test result when not displaying symptoms might do some good in people being more careful. But then again, i do not know how much viral replication is needed before being detected by an antigen test. We used to have a bit of time with previous variants but w Omicron it just moves too quick, is passed on before you know it and numbers go up in a big way.

Anyway, testing has become a bit of a moot point and as i have said before it is absenteeism and isolation rules that are the main issue. At some point they are going to have to let unsymptomatic cases carry on. First close contact then others. With testing you have the feeling you can control something which you can but at the same time create other issues well highlighted by now..

jackboy · 03-01-2022 12:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409675#Comment_118409675

Possibly because it appears that the very minor measures we are taking are not having a significant impact on spread of Omicron. Hard to see how Omicron could spread any faster in the population.

03-01-2022 12:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409855#Comment_118409855

Why is it hard? If, for example, we dropped the recommendation to work from home, you believe that there would be a negligible change to the number of close contacts the average adult would have and therefore there would be a negligible change in the likelihood that the average adult would get Covid on any particular day?

You say that current measures aren't having a significant impact on the spread. How do you know that? How do you know what the spread would be if there were no measures in place? You seem to have a "this is pretty much as fast as a virus can spread and it couldn't possibly spread much faster than this" mentality about Omicron. How have you come to that conclusion?

jackboy · 03-01-2022 12:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409883#Comment_118409883

Omicron is rapidly burning through the population. We no longer have the ability to test the large amount of cases. The spread is so fast and extensive that scientists can no longer estimate with any accuracy how many are being infected each day.

Do you really believe that some people WFH but carrying on as normal otherwise is having a significant impact? Do you really believe the majority of close contacts are in fact self isolating.

03-01-2022 12:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409914#Comment_118409914

Omicron is rapidly burning through the population. We no longer have the ability to test the large amount of cases. The spread is so fast and extensive that scientists can no longer estimate with any accuracy how many are being infected each day.

Again, that only highlights that Omicron is significantly more transmissible than Delta, it does not indicate whether Omicron would spread significantly faster if there were no measures in place.

Do you really believe that some people WFH but carrying on as normal otherwise is having a significant impact?

Do you really believe the majority of close contacts are in fact self isolating.

Well, as I said it, it would significantly decrease close contacts. For me when WFH, I am in typically close contact with 3 people daily, and each of the four of us typically only have each other as close contacts. At work, I would be in close contact with more than a dozen people, each of which would be in close contact with people at their respective homes, and those people at those homes would also be in contact with people at their respective places of work, and so on. Why would WFH not significantly decrease the likelihood of catching Covid on any particular day, regardless of the transmissibility of the virus?

You seem to think that we have hit a ceiling only because you are comparing Omicron to Delta. You don't have any data or evidence as to what would happen if there were no measures in place with Omicron.

jackboy · 03-01-2022 1:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409956#Comment_118409956

I’m saying we have almost no measures in place. A small amount of people WFH are not going to make a difference. Huge amounts of workers and industries are considered essential and don’t need to WFH. Pubs are full during the day. Shops are open. House parties and meet ups are widespread. It doesn’t make sense that the minor measures we are taking are having a significant impact on the virus spread.

03-01-2022 1:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409984#Comment_118409984

I’m saying we have almost no measures in place. A small amount of people WFH are not going to make a difference.

Well then, back this fact up. How have you concluded that, based on what I said?

El_Duderino 09 · 03-01-2022 1:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409592#Comment_118409592

I think you're probably taking the impact of he restrictions for granted. I really doubt that if there were no masks, no distancing and no crowd size restrictions, that there would be virtually no impact on transmissions.

El_Duderino 09 · 03-01-2022 1:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409611#Comment_118409611

The accuracy probably varies a lot depending on if they're used properly or not. The last few I've had have had different instructions for use.

Agree there should be education campaigns. It's a waste to use them if you're not using them correctly and not getting the benefit. I presume I'm using them correctly but I'd prefer to know if I'm doing it wrong.

Lumen · 03-01-2022 1:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409984#Comment_118409984

That's like saying your house is on fire so I may as well burn mine down too.

Also, overwhelming our PCR test capacity is not a challenge. We only have enough test capacity to test everyone about three times a year.

El_Duderino 09 · 03-01-2022 1:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409744#Comment_118409744

You're wrong because this variant seems less harmful to a vaccinated population. Letting it rip from the start would have been a complete disaster. I really doubt you'd have supported that idea if you thought there was a serious possibility of it happening.

Now letting it "rip" with the current restrictions might work out and might not work. We'll just have to wait and see how it works out.

jackboy · 03-01-2022 1:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118410090#Comment_118410090

I would say it’s more like you sitting in your kitchen which is not on fire but every other room in your house is on fire and your house is surrounded by a forest which is also on fire.

I think that if measures we tried were completely incapable of containing delta then less measures are unlikely to have an impact on spread of Omicron. It really looks like the ICUs are not overrun yet because of our vaccination levels and maybe Omicron is milder than Delta. The measures we are taking may make people feel like we are doing something that is helping but I think that is a bit of a stretch. The virus is obviously completely out of control and most people in the country are going to get it quickly, or had it already.