The Omicron variant

timmymagoo

If the virus is now so transmissible that there is 20,000 daily positive cases and the experts say unofficially it is 40,000 per day but could be as high as 60,000

That's the whole country by end of January

Why do we need any testing? Why do we need masks? Why do we need any restrictions?

I think we need to let it rip and we should have done it from the start of this

My reasons are this; Covid is never going away and there is a remote possibility we get a virus that will be very dangerous, we need herd immunity and we need antibodies to stop a potential covid virus with a 10% mortaliy rate running rampant

Can someone tell me I am wrong and please use your own words, don't give me links to jibber jabber

deholleboom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409501#Comment_118409501

That looks like a fair point although people usually take an antigen test prior to pcr. All this testing of course does not prevent people from spreading it much but one might argue a positive antigen test result when not displaying symptoms might do some good in people being more careful. But then again, i do not know how much viral replication is needed before being detected by an antigen test. We used to have a bit of time with previous variants but w Omicron it just moves too quick, is passed on before you know it and numbers go up in a big way.

Anyway, testing has become a bit of a moot point and as i have said before it is absenteeism and isolation rules that are the main issue. At some point they are going to have to let unsymptomatic cases carry on. First close contact then others. With testing you have the feeling you can control something which you can but at the same time create other issues well highlighted by now..

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409675#Comment_118409675

Possibly because it appears that the very minor measures we are taking are not having a significant impact on spread of Omicron. Hard to see how Omicron could spread any faster in the population.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409855#Comment_118409855

Why is it hard? If, for example, we dropped the recommendation to work from home, you believe that there would be a negligible change to the number of close contacts the average adult would have and therefore there would be a negligible change in the likelihood that the average adult would get Covid on any particular day?

You say that current measures aren't having a significant impact on the spread. How do you know that? How do you know what the spread would be if there were no measures in place? You seem to have a "this is pretty much as fast as a virus can spread and it couldn't possibly spread much faster than this" mentality about Omicron. How have you come to that conclusion?

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409883#Comment_118409883

Omicron is rapidly burning through the population. We no longer have the ability to test the large amount of cases. The spread is so fast and extensive that scientists can no longer estimate with any accuracy how many are being infected each day.

Do you really believe that some people WFH but carrying on as normal otherwise is having a significant impact? Do you really believe the majority of close contacts are in fact self isolating.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409914#Comment_118409914

Omicron is rapidly burning through the population. We no longer have the ability to test the large amount of cases. The spread is so fast and extensive that scientists can no longer estimate with any accuracy how many are being infected each day.

Again, that only highlights that Omicron is significantly more transmissible than Delta, it does not indicate whether Omicron would spread significantly faster if there were no measures in place.

Do you really believe that some people WFH but carrying on as normal otherwise is having a significant impact?

Do you really believe the majority of close contacts are in fact self isolating.

Well, as I said it, it would significantly decrease close contacts. For me when WFH, I am in typically close contact with 3 people daily, and each of the four of us typically only have each other as close contacts. At work, I would be in close contact with more than a dozen people, each of which would be in close contact with people at their respective homes, and those people at those homes would also be in contact with people at their respective places of work, and so on. Why would WFH not significantly decrease the likelihood of catching Covid on any particular day, regardless of the transmissibility of the virus?

You seem to think that we have hit a ceiling only because you are comparing Omicron to Delta. You don't have any data or evidence as to what would happen if there were no measures in place with Omicron.

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409956#Comment_118409956

I’m saying we have almost no measures in place. A small amount of people WFH are not going to make a difference. Huge amounts of workers and industries are considered essential and don’t need to WFH. Pubs are full during the day. Shops are open. House parties and meet ups are widespread. It doesn’t make sense that the minor measures we are taking are having a significant impact on the virus spread.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409984#Comment_118409984

I’m saying we have almost no measures in place. A small amount of people WFH are not going to make a difference.

Well then, back this fact up. How have you concluded that, based on what I said?

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409592#Comment_118409592

I think you're probably taking the impact of he restrictions for granted. I really doubt that if there were no masks, no distancing and no crowd size restrictions, that there would be virtually no impact on transmissions.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409611#Comment_118409611

The accuracy probably varies a lot depending on if they're used properly or not. The last few I've had have had different instructions for use.

Agree there should be education campaigns. It's a waste to use them if you're not using them correctly and not getting the benefit. I presume I'm using them correctly but I'd prefer to know if I'm doing it wrong.

Lumen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409984#Comment_118409984

That's like saying your house is on fire so I may as well burn mine down too.

Also, overwhelming our PCR test capacity is not a challenge. We only have enough test capacity to test everyone about three times a year.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409744#Comment_118409744

You're wrong because this variant seems less harmful to a vaccinated population. Letting it rip from the start would have been a complete disaster. I really doubt you'd have supported that idea if you thought there was a serious possibility of it happening.

Now letting it "rip" with the current restrictions might work out and might not work. We'll just have to wait and see how it works out.

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118410090#Comment_118410090

I would say it’s more like you sitting in your kitchen which is not on fire but every other room in your house is on fire and your house is surrounded by a forest which is also on fire.

I think that if measures we tried were completely incapable of containing delta then less measures are unlikely to have an impact on spread of Omicron. It really looks like the ICUs are not overrun yet because of our vaccination levels and maybe Omicron is milder than Delta. The measures we are taking may make people feel like we are doing something that is helping but I think that is a bit of a stretch. The virus is obviously completely out of control and most people in the country are going to get it quickly, or had it already.

This analogy of a house on fire is reminding me of this.

is_that_so

Fauci on Omicron, covering all the bases.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/02/fauci-covid-omicron-hospitalizations-case-count

Banana Republic 1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409426#Comment_118409426

So your not saying there being press ganged into doing them.

Beasty

The topic is Omicron. Not Conspiracy Theories. Not moderation.

If you have a query why your Conspiracy Theory nonsense was deleted take it up with a mod via PM

Now back on topic and do not respond to this post - if you have any questions PM me

Banana Republic 1

The HSE have actually made the booking of a pcr harder today, it’s no wonder cases suddenly dropped from over 20000 to 6000. The Strategy is working 🙄

Bikerguy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118411915#Comment_118411915

Its 16000 and its been said...its to save the test....thanks

WoollyRedHat

Recent research has found evidence that SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant may have originated in a mouse back in 2020, before jumping back over to humans

https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/rua6jb/evidence_for_a_mouse_origin_of_the_sarscov2/

https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/rua6jb/evidence_for_a_mouse_origin_of_the_sarscov2/

Banana Republic 1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118411996#Comment_118411996

Well when you have covid and can get a test it’s not working.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118412499#Comment_118412499

That's definitely interesting. What would it mean if its true?

WoollyRedHat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118412509#Comment_118412509

If hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 can infect humans and then cross-infect species and adapt, before jumping back again to humans as a new variant becomes part of a broader consensus in scientific community, then it means a One Health approach to managing this becomes paramount, as taken from paper:

Our study thus emphasizes the need for viral surveillance and sequencing in animals, especially those in close contact with humans. Furthermore, computational characterization of the spike RBD in animals and identification of their potentials to interact with human ACE2 will likely help to prevent future outbreaks of dangerous SARS-CoV-2 variants.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118412680#Comment_118412680

That's interesting alright. The more we know about it the better. I don't see how that really helps us deal with the pandemic but it can only be good to understand how it works. It'll be interesting to see if this is true and if so, how this information can be used.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118412716#Comment_118412716

Have a read of the responses to this comment also.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118412735#Comment_118412735

First post is interesting. Goes to shyte faster than an After Hours thread asking for advice on how to keep an infidelity secret.

Like anything else, it's interested I'll wait to find out the concensus view on whether this news is true and what it means.

corkie

Science indicates less severe omicron disease

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1avXjzr1xnc

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/04/t-cells-can-fight-omicron-when-antibodies-fail-to-australian-researchers-say

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/03/when-will-omicron-peak-in-uk-and-is-the-modelling-wrong

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118409616#Comment_118409616

Eventually we have to live with this virus.

Restricting our personal lives and livelihoods has costs too.

The numbers that are important are icu inpatients in terms of capacity and obviously deaths.

I think come the end of January the wave will be in steep decline and icu inpatients less than 100.

Antivirals such as PF could avoid alot of unnecessary hospitilisations later in 2022 when widely available to at risk individuals. That's what the hse should be focusing on now with regards to procurement in reducing harms in the population to unvaccinated and at risk persons vaccinated.

I'm not sure their is an appetite for a fourth vaccine that is no different to the first.

Risk/benefit surely is bound to be more marginal. As Sarah Gilbert says, the most important vaccine is that first dose. It's the law of diminishing returns, its commonsense.

Time to vaccinate Africa me thinks and focus on antivirals for out patients.

PF is produced daily in Ringaskiddy as we speak.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118398618#Comment_118398618

Look at the number of infections in this wave versus people hospitalised. Also look at numbers in icu and deaths.

Another point is how many in hospital currently went into hospital because of covid rather than another reason.

Last year at this time nurses were posting on social media about the number of deaths each day in their hospitals and how traumatised they were with the volumes of really sick people that couldn't breathe being admitted each day.

We have come a long way 💪...

http://hottopics.thenewskorner.com/2022/01/dog-owners-likely-to-report-better.html?m=1

Our 🐕 definitely helped our family through all this.