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Taiwan V China. Its getting very feisty between these two at the moment.

  • 05-10-2021 7:58pm
    Registered Users Posts: 15,552 ✭✭✭✭

    China flying jets over Taiwan and Taiwan flying jets around too. Sure China could take over Taiwan in an instant but would it be bad for the World? Would America or Biden do anything about it?

    I would like to see Taiwan remain independent and maybe visit it in the future sometime but I am not so sure that's what China wants. They say its part if them and they want it back. Could get bad this if it turns into a hot war.

    Live long and Prosper

    Peace and long life.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,553 ✭✭✭Fiery mutant

    Edit: double post, which then edited both posts. Not writing it all again. In effect, war bad, China bad, long live Taiwan.

    We should defend our way of life to an extent that any attempt on it is crushed, so that any adversary will never make such an attempt in the future.

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,796 ✭✭✭timmyntc

    Taiwan have a huge amount of semiconductor facilities, most of the worlds computer chips are made there. Almost all the bleeding edge stuff is.

    The PRC taking control of all this would be a huge blow, as those semiconductor fabs are a big strategic asset that most of the world relies on. If it did come to it, the PRC would take Taiwan without the US interfering. Biden doesnt have the stones

  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,458 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar

    I think the US announcing massive investment in domestic fabrication plants and the need to reduce reliance on Taiwan is a sure sign of things to come. It might be a long time off yet, but the signs are ominous.

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,755 ✭✭✭✭Hello 2D Person Below

    I'm not sure China could conquer Taiwan so easily.

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,796 ✭✭✭timmyntc

    Taiwan would not roll over, but PRC's numerical superiority, aircraft carriers etc would surely win out.

    Their repeated incursions into Taiwanese airspace is likely a probing attempt to find things like radar installations, no doubt they'll bomb the crap out of them if it comes to it.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,552 ✭✭✭✭AMKC

    I think they could but Taiwan and its people would put up a hell of a fight and make China pay for every advance they make that by the time China had taken over it it would seem like a defeat. Chine is over 237 I think tomes bigger than Taiwan. All this could have been resolved easily years ago do if America and the West had acknowledged Taiwan as a state in its own right. Then China would not seek to take it back as they know it would mean war. As it is China says its a rogue province and wants it back.

    Live long and Prosper

    Peace and long life.

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,357 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell

    What happened with Crimea? I did not see any reaction from anyone outside Ukraine over the takeover. The Russians just walked in and that was it.

    Could the Chinese do something like that?

    Unfortunately the deal over Hong Kong (one state - two systems) appears to be going towards 'one state - one system'. If Taiwan had such a deal that Taiwan would become a province of China but be left alone, I doubt they would trust China to not interfere to the extent of taking over - either gradually or quickly.

    For the USA, such a state of affairs would mean the end of USA global military reach - at least in the Far East. Would Japan or Australia consider themselves safe?

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,037 ✭✭✭Banbh

    The people of Taiwan are Chinese, which might be a problem for the West in getting a war going. Better stick to the sheikdoms and Central America to keep the arms industry going.

  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]

    I am reading the speeches of Xi Jianping right now. He is basically a Chinese nationalist, with no real Marxism. His main speeches on the economy praise the private sector and the public sector equally.

    There is very little belligerence. Except to Taiwan. He clearly wants to unite. However I get the impression the Chinese are happy to wait, they have a civilisation of 2000 years anyway ( they say 5000). And in two decades they will be unbeatable.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭Glaceon

    My wife’s Taiwanese friend would tell you otherwise. To her, that’s like calling an Irish person British.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,357 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell

    The last time they fought a shooting war with the Chinese was over Korea from 1950 to 1953 (and it is still going on only there is an armistice but no formal peace agreement). At the beginning, the USA and allies fought all the way to the Chinese border, then China entered the war and fought all the way back to the start, and now there is a DMZ keeping the sides apart.

    There are a lot of Chinese soldiers.

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,796 ✭✭✭timmyntc

    Difference with Crimea is it was filled with a lot of ethnic Russians who welcomed the takeover. To my knowledge Taiwan does not have a lot of PRC-separatists in their midst. Russia got sanctioned for Crimea (are they still in place?), but nothing happened beyond that really. The Ukrainians kick up a fuss but they wouldnt dare try take it back.

    Russia officially recognises Taiwan as Chinese clay too, so it's clear who is backing who in this - the usual Russia-Iran-China axis vs US-Japan-Aus-UK. Most likely outcome is China takes it with little fuss - they want a fully unified China by 2049 (100 year anniversary of People's Republic of China), but expect the takeover to come much sooner than that. By 2049 all Taiwanese will be good chinese citizens pledging allegiance to the party.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,374 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut

    Taiwan's geography make's a land invasion for China very very difficult. It would not be an easy take over for China, there would be very heavy losses on all sides and then a stalemate, I reckon.

    Beverly Hills, California

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,499 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout

    In two decades they will be on the decline already due to their artificially stunted demographics. They know it too. If they want to grab Taiwan it's going to happen in the next decade.

  • Registered Users Posts: 729 ✭✭✭SupplyandDemandZone

    Not going to happen for a few years yet imo although with a pretty weak president sitting in the oval office who knows China might seize the moment.

  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]

    That’s cope. China’s demographics are less worrying than the west and they haven’t even used up all of their rural workers yet, which means they don’t really need immigration.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163

    Taiwan, producer of 80% of world's semiconductors.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,326 ✭✭✭Scuid Mhór

    I would hope not but I do believe that in a few years it is probably inevitable that China will make a move. I hope Taiwan strikes back with force when the time comes.

  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,681 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight

    It's not that they make lots of chips. It's that they make the cutting edge chips in volume. Intel is getting them to make their 3nm chips. China needs chips but plays the long game.

    The USA's "Star Wars" program cost billions but it bankrupted the Russians when they tried to keep up. If China keeps up the pressure then Taiwan will have to spend more than they'd like on defence.

    The Chinese know that Taiwan will destroy the TSMC factories rather than let them be captured. So baring some major upset they will do like they did for Hong Kong and Macau and wait.

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,954 ✭✭✭AbusesToilets

    Taiwan is one of the lynch pins in the US strategy for countering China's belligerence in South China Sea. They will absolutely defend them. This is a totally different situation to the Ukraine. There are decades long guarantees of US support, that underpin the relationship. A failure to defend them would be catastrophic strategically for the US, and destroy and credibility they have in other alliances.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,932 ✭✭✭✭titan18

    The TSMC factories give the Western countries a huge opportunity to support Taiwan. If Taiwan had nothing going for it, China would roll in and no one would even pretend to help. The chip manufacturing and the strategic advantage of having an ally so close to China's border are why US and NATO will likely help Taiwan.

  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 50,786 CMod ✭✭✭✭Retr0gamer

    It's getting scarier now with Xinnie the Poo in danger of looking very weak with incoming fuel shortages that could devastate the Chinese economy. He is really looking to have the reunification of China as his legacy and I would not be surprised if things start to go pear shaped that he pulls and Falklands War Thatcher job to get a popularity boost.

    It won't be easy for China, the last time they tried something their airforce got a hammering from sidewinder missiles.

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,796 ✭✭✭timmyntc

    The PRC dont need TSMC or any of the Taiwanese semiconductor installations - they have their own, and are rapidly playing catch-up (mostly with stolen Taiwanese trade secrets)

    I'd say they'd be more than happy to have Taiwanese govt destroy all these assets in an invasion, as the West needs it more than PRC

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,499 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout

    Not sure what "cope" means in this context but the idea that China "don't really need migration" is just wrong. Their current fertility rate is well below the reproduction rate of 2.1. Currently both the USA and China have a fertility rate of 1.70 (and practically the same media age). The difference between them is that USA tops up its population shortfall where China actually exports people. The Net Migration rate for USA is 2.82 per 1000 whereas for China it's -0.25 per 1000. An untapped rural workforce may get them over any short-term humps but in the long run they're either going to have to change their stance on migration or face the consequences (not enough young people to bear the burden of the growing population of retirees).

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,357 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell

    You need to take account of life expectancy.

    Do Americans live to a greater age, particularly post retirement? Are Americans healthier than Chinese people, particularly elderly age groups?

  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]

    The untapped rural workforce is about 300M which gives them decades. China is not fully urban yet. Also the rural workers need passports to work in cities so they can be seen as immigrants.

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,499 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout

    There is currently a 2 year difference in life expectancy and it's closing rapidly. Chinese retirement age (60M/55F) is currently far lower than that of the USA which places even more of a burden on the working population

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,499 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout

    No they can't "be seen as immigrants" if the entire country has a net negative migration rate. The migration rate looks at the country as a whole - internal migration is irrelevant in its calculation.

    Also your 300m "untapped rural workers" figure is not a credible number. The entire rural workforce numbered 332m in 2019. Did you just assume that they can all move to the cities in their entirety? That's not how it works. Those people are doing jobs that need doing in the countryside from farming to teaching children to looking after the elderly. If you moved them to the city then you just create a shortfall in rural areas that needs to be plugged.

  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]

    Well, yeh If you technically use immigrants as only coming in from abroad. I was talking economically and with regards to the economic affects of an ageing population. The dependency ratio is the ratio of workers to retired.

    In the West to keep that number up immigrants are needed. However it’s not that simple. The more educated a worker is the more GDP he produces, the more tax he pays. An industrial worker is also more productive than a peasant.

    In fact a worker who leaves a rural area to work in a factory goes from contributing nothing much in taxes to paying taxes. In the next generation his offspring will go to college and move up the value chain again.

    very little of that is available to the west, where most immigrants are low skilled with the exception of the hiB workers in the US Europe doesn’t seem to have a points system.

    In those terms then we need to look at the rural workers moving into urban areas as economically increasing the tax pool in a way that’s the same or better than immigration to the west, albeit without the social problems. In that time the Chinese need to push the tfr to 2 or more. That means 100 couples having 200 children rather than 170. Achievable for a dictatorship.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,796 ✭✭✭timmyntc

    You cant just move rural workers to cities like that - rural workers are farmers and all the support industries for them, among other things.

    It is delusional to think you can do that - sure next why dont we fill any job vacancies in Irish cities by evacuating all the farmers too? What could possibly go wrong?

    You cant measure a persons contributions in taxes alone - people involved in food production tend to be paid worse but are infinitely more important than an office worker on 60k as the deputy head of HR