Taiwan V China. Its getting very feisty between these two at the moment.

circadian

Nothing like a bit of sabre rattling nationalism to take the attention away from the energy crisis and incoming property market crash (25-30% of their GDP in which a large amount of the population has invested in).

The Chinese government could be dealing with civil unrest very soon, Taiwan is just a distraction.

BluePlanet

The US has no defense pact with "Taiwan".

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118023322#Comment_118023322

No, but it does have some pretty strong language on the matter. "consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States.". I think it is generally assumed that the US considers Taiwain a military ally even if the official position is 'strategic abiguitiy' caused by the inability to have a defense pact with a country not officially recognised. There's also the recent Biden comment on the matter.

What's interesting is that though Japan has no defense pact with Taiwan either, there are indications that they also may be leaning in the direction of helping out simply on the basis that if they don't all hang together, they will for sure hang separately. https://www.npr.org/2021/07/26/1020866539/japans-position-on-defending-taiwan-has-taken-a-remarkable-shift

AbusesToilets

The US and the West should call China's bluff and recognise the very obvious reality of Taiwan's independence. They have let unfettered greed rule over their foreign policy far too much with regards to China.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118024151#Comment_118024151

US action on Crimea or recently, Afghanistan significantly undermines their commitment to their "allies". It was the US' disastrous pull out from Afghanistan that emboldened China this time around to escalate tensions with Taiwan. They're testing to see if the US will respond and call their bluff.

Russia called their bluff when they annexed Crimea, only got a slap on the wrist with sanctions. China hoping for the same no doubt.

Manic Moran

Absolutely no correlation with Crimea. The US did not have any particular explicit nor implied defense agreement with Ukraine, note how Russia has not attempted similar moves with the Baltic nations which are explicitly US allies. Plus, whether anyone wants to admit it or not, there was a sizeable portion of the Crimean population who did consider themselves Russian and supported the move. After all, Crimea was only given to the Ukraine after WW2.

There seems to be absolutely no support in Taiwan for unification under Beijing and there is a very long history of veiled but obvious support for Taiwanese independence, not least decades of selling them arms to do it.

Ardillaun

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118009860#Comment_118009860

I’d say Xi doesn’t want to wait. In two decades he’ll be out of power and probably dead. He doesn’t want the credit to go to somebody else.

The Taiwanese public don’t seem too bothered by China’s manoeuvres. Hard to say if that’s confidence in their armed forces or acceptance of the inevitable.

Ardillaun

China’s economy may be facing some serious trouble. The population is ageing, births remain low and real estate has hit some serious turbulence with the Evergrande collapse. A stand-off with Taiwan may divert attention from such domestic woes but it could also turn into a full-scale war. In fairness, bringing the ‘renegade province’ back into the fold has been a top priority for the CCP since 1949.

Timberrrrrrrr

For anyone saying China is behind America in weaponry, this is a very worrying development

https://www.ft.com/content/ba0a3cde-719b-4040-93cb-a486e1f843fb

"China tests new space capability with hypersonic missile

Launch in August of nuclear-capable rocket that circled the globe took US intelligence by surprise

https://www.ft.com/content/ba0a3cde-719b-4040-93cb-a486e1f843fb

China tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile in August that circled the globe before speeding towards its target, demonstrating an advanced space capability that caught US intelligence by surprise. Five people familiar with the test said the Chinese military launched a rocket that carried a hypersonic glide vehicle which flew through low-orbit space before cruising down towards its target. The missile missed its target by about two-dozen miles, according to three people briefed on the intelligence. But two said the test showed that China had made astounding progress on hypersonic weapons and was far more advanced than US officials realised."

Sam Russell

How much of USA national debt does China carry?

Would that form any strategic value to China? Could they use economic pressure on USA or Taiwan to move for closer alignment between China and Taiwan so the Chinese can save face?

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118015251#Comment_118015251

In the 1950s maybe. The polling is there, the 'Taiwanese only' identity is in the firm majority and has been for a long time - Those regarding themselves as both (Taiwanese & Chinese) probably at 1 in 5 of the population, and those identifying as 'Chinese only' are either geriatric KMT old-timers or political nutbars.

The growth of the Taiwanese identity has been the major feature of the island since the end of KMT absolutism in the 1980s and there is no turning back the clock.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118014522#Comment_118014522

A (worried) Chinese friend of mine recently told me that there is an army of approx 200m migrant labourers working on construction projects in China. They move from province to province and go where the money is, and rarely stay over a year in one place. These men sustain families in poorer, usually rural areas from their work. If the property industry collapses, you have an army of angry men larger than the population of Germany, France and the UK combined that can't put bread on the table for their family.

It's high-stakes stuff for the CCP, and the social compact in China is more fragile than many outside the country realise.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118015233#Comment_118015233

Actually Norway held out for 3 months,and would probably have beaten them back if it wasnt for French and British troops had to give up and return because of Dunkirk and Sweden giving the Nazis a helping hand with transporting troops by rail trough sweden