October 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

appledrop · 27-10-2021 8:17am

Here we go again, 3.8mm on 26th in Mullingar.

16/26 and today and tomorrow looking like very wet days.

appledrop · 28-10-2021 8:16am

Unbelievable the amount of rain that fell in parts of the country yesterday.

57mm at Johnstown Castle + 54mm at Roches point.

15mm ar Mullingar so we have reached 17/27 and we have more rain to come yet.

M.T. Cranium · 28-10-2021 8:30pm

Okay then, we can pretty much score the bonus now since all forecasts will be passed. Rather than listing them all, just take the top two at 17 days for ten points, then one fewer point for each day below that. I will think about how to score the outliers at the low end when I do the actual scoring.

appledrop · 29-10-2021 8:24am

6.4mm at Mullingar so 18/28.

M.T. Cranium · 29-10-2021 1:41pm

After four weeks ...

IMT is 12.0 C, the fourth week average was 11.9 which was 2.5 deg above normal. I would expect this to lose a bit over the last three days and finish perhaps 11.9 C.

PRC is now at 110% of a normal monthly outcome, which means that as of today we are at 123% of normal for 28 days, give or take. This won't likely change much with enough rain by Sunday night to keep the average near 125%. The fourth week average was a rather wet 199% of normal with the south running as high as 300 to 350 per cent.

SUN has held on to about 102% with this past week at 76.5% (459/600). This will finish just around normal for the month, to be confirmed on 2nd from MS.

The bonus question will finish higher than any forecasts (already at 19 and each day likely to contribute, but scoring already settled except for the low end of the scores where there were some gaps between forecast number of days).

M.T. Cranium · 29-10-2021 1:55pm

Both MAX and MIN will require some help from Min Pro but in each case a forecaster is within the zone of handing the field a reducing of the boost by half, although several are close enough that their scores will stay within one of a normal minimum progression outcome.

The IMT, PRC and SUN scoring should be fairly straightforward. From my estimates I think one of the higher scores would be Mr Stonewall who might be around 70. Of course my estimates could be off by enough that somebody else's score would run higher. Joe Public nailed three elements but will not see a lot of points for MAX or MIN, should be into the low or mid 60s also. Sunflower3 the current leader probably has a good enough score to maintain a similar lead. Just speculation at this point though.

Tae laidir · 29-10-2021 5:04pm

Yes, scoring will be interesting, with some people spot on with some factors, and way off with others.

appledrop · 30-10-2021 9:36am

Mullingar 2.2mm on 29th.

19/29.

My scoring will be mad this month. I'll get literally nothing for IMT & Max but rest of scores will be OK.

appledrop · 31-10-2021 5:22pm

Only 0.5mm yesterday in Mullingar.

Good bit of rain fell overnight though so looks like final result will be 20/31 days.

Happy Halloween everyone 🎃, hope the rain stays away until we manage to get out and about and get our trick and treat done.

M.T. Cranium · 01-11-2021 2:46pm

IMT finished on 11.7 C.

MAX 20.4, MIN 0.2 (to be checked)

PRC 130% (to be checked)

SUN around 100-105 (to be determined from MS)

Bonus 20/31

Interesting that despite running over the average number of wet days Mullingar (and Casement) were slightly below average for October rainfall, the other nine stations ran well above to create the average I just posted.

Will check all these numbers tomorrow with the appearance of the MS and post some scoring then.

M.T. Cranium · 02-11-2021 1:00am

Scoring for October 2021

(scoring has been slightly adjusted after 1100h 2nd)

FORECASTER ___________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__BONUS __ TOTALS

(provisional values) ______11.7_20.4_0.2_128_109 ___ 20d

Pauldry ________________20 _ 09 _ 14*_ 14 _ 08 ____ 07 _____ 72

Mr Stonewall ___________ 17 _ 07 _ 20*_ 14 _ 03 ____ 05 _____ 66

Tae laidir ______________ 22 _ 06 _ 06*_ 15 _ 07 ____ 10 _____ 66

Artane2002_____________14 _ 17 _ 08*_ 11 _ 09 ____ 06 _____ 65

Sunflower3 _____________14_ 19 _ 09*_ 08 _ 05 ____ 09 _____ 64

Kindred Spirit ___________19 _ 16 _ 03*_ 07 _ 10 ____ 08 _____ 63

___ Con Sensus _________14 _ 19 _ 04*_ 11 _ 08 ____ 07 _____ 63

Jpmarn ________________13 _ 15 _ 04*_ 09 _ 09 ____ 09 _____ 59

sryanbruen _____________17 _ 17 __00 _ 11 _ 09 ____ 04 _____ 58

dasa29 ________________16 _ 16 _ 04*_ 06 _ 06 ____ 08 _____ 56

M. T. Cranium ___________22 _ 06 _ 03*_ 06 _ 08 ____ 09 _____ 54

Gonzo ______ (-3) _______14 _ 19 __00 _ 11 _ 04 ____ 09 _57-3=54

Adam240610 ___________ 14 _ 18 _ 01*_ 10 _ 06 ____ 05 _____ 54

Dacogawa ______________14 _ 13 _ 10*_ 04 _ 05 ____ 07 _____ 53

Joe Public ______________23 _ 00 _ 05*_ 12 _ 08 ____ 05 _____ 53

Appledrop ______________05 _ 00 _ 16*_ 14 _ 06 ____ 10 _____ 51

Danno _________________12 _ 04 _ 08*_ 09 _ 10 ____ 09 _____ 52

___ NormaL ____________ 09 _ 19 _ 02*_ 06 _ 08 ____ 07 _____ 51

DOCARCH ______________12 _ 19 _ 02*_ 03 _ 10 ____ 03 _____ 49

Bsal ___________________11 _ 06 _ 04*_ 13 _ 07 ____ 05 _____ 46

waterways _____________ 13 _ 00 _ 01*_ 14 _ 07 ____ 09 _____ 44

John Mac ____ (-1) ______ 11 _ 12 _ 01*_ 12 _ 08 ____ 01 _45-1=44

MrSkinner ______________12 _ 04 _ 07*_ 03 _ 09 ____ 04 _____ 39

* MIN scored from "restrained" minimum progression as raw score of 19 from Mr stonewall,

your boost is halfway from raw score to min prog score. Coldest two forecasts score zero.

====================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ No. days 1.0 mm Mullingar

Joe Public ______________ 11.9 _ 24.3 _-1.9 _ 120 _ 097 ____ 12

Tae laidir _______________11.4 _ 21.8 _-1.8 _ 128 _ 095 ____ 17

M. T. Cranium ___________ 11.4 _ 21.8 _-2.2 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 16

Pauldry ________________ 11.2 _ 21.5 _ 1.1 _ 125 _ 100 ____ 14

Kindred Spirit ___________ 11.1 _ 20.0 _-2.2 _ 105 _ 110 ____ 15

sryanbruen______________10.9 _ 20.1 _-4.0 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 11

Mr Stonewall ____________10.9 _ 19.1 _ 0.3 _ 126 _ 073 ____ 12

dasa29 ________________ 10.8 _ 20.0 _-2.0 _ 100 _ 090 ____ 15

Dacogawa ______________10.6 _ 21.1 _-1.4 _ 160 _ 084 ____ 14

Artane2002_____________ 10.6 _ 20.7 _-1.6 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 13

Sunflower3 _____________ 10.6_ 20.5 _-1.5 _ 108 _ 085 ____ 16

___ Con Sensus _________ 10.6 _ 20.3 _-2.0 _ 116 _ 100 ____ 14

Gonzo ______ (-3) _______10.6 _ 20.3 _-3.2 _ 116 _ 077 ____ 16

Adam240610 ___________ 10.6 _ 20.2 _-3.0 _ 115 _ 086 ____ 12

waterways ______________10.5 _ 22.7 _-3.1 _ 130 _ 095 ____ 16

Jpmarn ________________ 10.5 _ 20.9 _-2.0 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 16

DOCARCH_______________10.4 _ 20.3 _-2.6 _ 092 _ 108 ____ 10

Danno _________________10.4 _ 18.8 _ 1.7 _ 145 _ 110 ____ 16

MrSkinner ______________10.4 _ 18.8 _-1.7 _ 091 _ 105 ____ 11

John Mac ____ (-1) ______ 10.3 _ 21.2 _-3.1 _ 120 _ 097 _____ 6

Bsal ___________________10.3 _ 19.0 _-2.0 _ 123 _ 095 ____ 12

___ NormaL ____________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _-2.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 14

Appledrop _______________ 9.7 _ 16.9 _ 0.8 _ 130 _ 090 ____ 17

M.T. Cranium · 02-11-2021 11:43am

Annual scoring update January to October 2021

The ranks before the forecaster's name refer to total (all ten months where applicable) scores and the second entry in brackets is the previous month's rank for that. ... The rank after "best 8/10" is for that category and the second entry in brackets there is also last month's rank for best 7/9. This category is only ranked for those who have now played at least eight of ten. If October is one of your two lowest scores, the "best of" total will have increased by your previously shown second lowest score. Months dropped from the total score to derive best 8/10 are shown in italic type. There may be another month equal to one of those but to avoid confusion I only highlighted the first of them. The italic type is sometimes a bit hard to distinguish.

If this table wraps on your screen, try a lower magnification setting. 110% works for me.

rank (prev) _ FORECASTER__JanFebMar AprMayJun JulAugSep Oct__TOTAL_best 8/10_rank (prev)

_01_(01) __sunflower3 _____76_37_72_66_67_66_74_78_71_64__ 671 ___ 570 __ 01 (01)

(02)_(02)_____Con Sensus __65_59_81_67_64_49_59_76_59_63__ 642 ___ 534 __(02) ((t02))

t04_(07) __ tae laidir ______ 67_64_74_39_35_49_64_82_61_66__ 601 ____ 527 __ 02 (03)

t04_(02) __ john mac ______62_68_68_34_52_73_57_73_70_44__ 601 ____ 523 __ 03 (02)

_02_(t05)__ Artane2002 ____67_48_87_61_63_43_57_65_49_65__ 605 ____ 514 __ 04 (07)

_06_(t05)__sryanbruen ____ 75_76_47_69_60_57_38_59_59_58__ 598 ____ 513 __ 05 (t04)

_07_(03) __ MrSkinner _____58_63_75_70_47_53_58_69_62_39__ 594 ____ 508 __ 06 (t04)

_08_(09)__ JPmarn ________63_76_69_64_39_40_49_66_59_60__ 585 ____ 506 __ 07 (08)

_03_(04)__ Appledrop ______56_75_75_52_74_53_51_51_65_51__ 603 ____ 501 __ 08 (06)

_12_(11) __Kindred Spirit ___58_82_67_27_55_48_51_75_41_63__ 567 ____ 499 __ 09 (t09)

(10)_(09) __ __ NormaL ____59_76_58_48_35_73_56_71_53_51__ 580 ____ 497 __ (10) ((t08))

_10_(10) __ Mr stonewall ____65_59_41_68_60_38_60_68_49_66__ 574 ____ 495 __ 10 (13)

_14_(14)__ Adam240610 ____58_68_54_65_72_31_49_70_32_54__ 553 ____ 490 __ 11 (t09)

_11_(15)__ Pauldry _________58_47_72_64_79_43_43_53_39_72__ 570 ____ 488 __ 12 (17)

_09_(08) __ DOCARCH ______54_50_70_54_54_80_56_66_49_49__ 582 ____ 484 __ 13 (11)

_13_(12)__ M.T. Cranium ____ 47_37_65_79_47_65_42_68_53_54__ 557 ____ 478 __ 14 (14)

_16_(13) __ waterways ______55_62_29_41_62_68_71_59_54_44__ 545 ____ 475 __ 15 (12)

_17_(16) __ Bsal ___________41_50_73_48_62_70_36_60_57_46__ 543 ____ 466 __ 16 (t15)

_15_(17) __ dacogawa ______ 79_60_67_61_50_40_47_44_47_53__ 548 ____ 464 __ 17 (18)

_19_(18) __ 200motels ______38_65_47_75_33_63_57_51_62_ --__ 491 ____ 458 __ 18 (t15)

_18_(19) __ dasa29 ________ 48_43_65_42_54_56_40_81_51_56__ 536 ____ 454 __ 19 (19)

_20_(20) __Gonzo __________81_20_83_40_74_39_19_46_34_54__ 490 ____ 451 __ 20 (20)

_21_(21) __ Joe Public _______41_42_45_58_30_48_10_64_69_53__ 460 ____ 420 __ 21 (22)

_22_(24) __ Danno _________ 38_10_25_65_66_--_74_--_ 62_52 __ 392 ____ 392 __ 22 (23)

_23_(22)__ Western Storm ___45_81_74_33_40_44_--_72_-- _ -- __ 389

_24_(23)__ Cirrus Business ___35_53_73_67_72_42_--_-- _-- _-- __ 342

_25_(25) __ SleetandSnow ___30_41_77_-- _-- _50_70_48_ --_ --__ 316

_26_(26) __ eon1208 _______ 53_76_62_58_ --_46_ --_ --_ -- _--__ 295

_27_(27) __ Esposito ________--_ -- _ --_ --_ --_57_57_54_ --_ --__ 168

_28_(28) __ funsterdelux ____ 59_40_62 _ --_ --_ --_ --_ --_ --_ --__ 161

_29_(29) __ sdanseo ________51_ --_52 _ --_ --_ --_ --_ --_ --_ --__ 103

_30_(30) __ Gaoth Laidir ____ --_ -- _ -- _ --_ -- _ -- _ --_58_32_ --__ 90

_31_(31) __ BLIZZARD7 _____10_21_34_ -- _ -- _ -- _ --_ --_ --_ --__ 65

_32_(32) __ Bazlers ________34_ --_ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ --_ --_ --_ --__ 34

_33_(33) __ Tazio __________--_26_ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ --_ --_ --__ 26

===========================================================

Sunflower3 is gradually pulling away from the chase pack which from 2nd to at least 10th is quite bunched together.

This table was adjusted for any changes made to October scoring (some 1 or 2 pt changes made).

M.T. Cranium · 04-11-2021 11:51pm

Annual scoring update January to October 2021 _ corrected version

(with revision of one scoring line, error found in the work that follows on the category scoring ... the category scoring turned out to be right but in checking back to find the source of the discrepancy, I found that in July's annual scoring, I had typed in 43 for 32 for Pauldry, and so his total scores have been 11 too high since that time. This error is now fixed (the fact that it's a lower score means that the net error for best 8/10 was zero, so no change in that position for Pauldry, just total points).