October 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

Tae laidir

Mullingar 6.3mm yesterday.

That's 3 / 3.

Tae laidir

Mullingar 7.0 yesterday.

That's 4 / 4.

Tae laidir

Mullingar 3.2mm yesterday.

That's 5 / 5.

Raining in Mullingar at the moment!

Tae laidir

Mullingar 2.5mm yesterday.

That's 6 / 6.

John Mac hoping for a drought.

Tae laidir

Mullingar 0.3mm yesterday

That's 6 / 7

pauldry

Next week will be drier so Mullingars 90 percent hit rate will be much less by next weekend

M.T. Cranium

After one week ...

IMT 11.7 which is 0.3 above normal.

MAX 20.4 (PP 7th)

MIN around 3 C probably not going to survive to end of month

PRC 137 per cent of normal.

SUN has managed 134% (805/600).

BONUS so far 6 of 7 days (>1.0 mm Mullingar)

Tae laidir

Mullingar 3.1mm yesterday.

That's 7 / 8.

appledrop

And another day, Mullingar 3.7mm on 9th.

We are now at 8/9.

DOCARCH

2c at Mount Dillion atm.

M.T. Cranium

A rainfall or perhaps morning foggy dew of 0.2 mm on 10th not enough to qualify, so the count for Mullingar is 8/10 and will likely stay at 8 for a while now, I may check but not post updates until that 8 changes to 9 later in the month. Same goes for anyone else tracking this, you can assume that any zero day later this week will be noted so when rain does return, we can post 9 of whatever. The models show very small amounts in some eastern counties on Friday but it might not hit Mullingar at all. The current model run suggests maybe six to eight more days will occur eventually. It also suggests that the IMT will stall out or even rise a bit. Currently the IMT is up slightly from the first week report, at 12.1 C.

Tae laidir

Mount Dillon registered 2.3 yesterday.

Tae laidir

Markee Castle showing 0.2deg yesterday.

pauldry

Yup. The fridge of Ireland

M.T. Cranium

Forgot to update for two weeks so for the current values ... after 15 days ...

IMT was on 11.9 C. The past week (9th to 15th) had an average of 11.5 (0.8 above normal). The 8th was quite a warm day so that explains how the monthly average can be higher than either week in the report.

PRC is currently around normal for the period. The week just ended had only 21% of normal but the 8th which falls between the two weeks measured had heavy rain in the west so looking at the monthly data so far, will estimate around 95% as the current PRC value.

SUN remains well above normal. The week of 9th to 15th had 118%, so that even a cloudy outcome on the 8th leaves the month around 115% to 120%.

MAX so far is 20.4 and MIN 0.2.

The number of days with 1.0 mm or more rainfall at Mullingar has been stalled at 8 for several days, looks likely to pick up a few more from late today onward.

appledrop

6.1mm of rain at Mullingar yesterday.

That's 9/16 days now.

Today should increase that to 10.

Tae laidir

Mullingar just made it with 1.0mm.

That's 10 / 17.

Tae laidir

Mullingar 2.4mm yesterday.

That's 11 / 18

DOCARCH overtaken.

Sryanbruen & MrSkinner hoping for a drought.

appledrop

There is no drought about, looks like we will be up to 12 after today, but we will wait for official stats.

appledrop

1.3mm on 19th.

That's 12/19 and we all know it's bucketing down rain today so the count continues.

M.T. Cranium

The earlier rain missed Mullingar by and large but now there's a small amount with a front moving south, will be close to another qualifying day. The current numerical guidance gives four more days with significant rainfalls in that part of the country so a finish around 17 looks plausible (that's our highest prediction anyway). I like this bonus question except that it will provide a rather lumpy result for scoring, no way to differentiate all the 16s. Should have thought of a second part to this to spread out the scoring a bit better.

Tae laidir

Bonus only 10 points, so lumpiness less of a problem.

Mullingar only made 0.3mm

M.T. Cranium

Yes, not a big problem but I usually manage to distribute the points more or less evenly and if six people are tied for one scoring position then I have to figure out whether to drop two levels which seems harsh, or just have a general glut of bonus points relative to the usual monthly outcome. I was probably expecting a less concentrated number of forecasts near one extreme of the range.

pauldry

Not much cold left in October so frosts and minus temperatures becoming more unlikely for minimum.

M.T. Cranium

Back on track for these reports, after three weeks ...

IMT on 12.0 C, the third week average was 12.2 which is 2.1 above normal. Despite a brief cool spell this value will probably be sustained more or less to end of the month with some very mild days shown at times.

MAX 20.4 and MIN 0.2

PRC is now quite close to normal, 21 days have had roughly 67% of the normal October precip (from monthly data) and 21/31 is about 68% of the month. The third week average was 105% of normal. PRC will probably stay fairly close to where it is now with a few significant falls predicted but given this is a rather wet time of the year normally.

SUN is about 110% of normal. The past week was exactly 100% of average. (estimate blended with the previous estimate and factoring in that the 15th (already in that estimate) was somewhat above normal). Sunshine may lose ground in a rather cloudy regime next week, and finish close to normal or even as low as 95%.

The bonus question remains at 12 so far, today seems unlikely to register and tomorrow almost certain, so will be at 13/23 with several more wet days in the current guidance, could reach our maximum predictions of 17.

appledrop

6mm yesterday at Mullingar.

That's 13/23 confirmed.

sryanbruen

Just a bit of trivia... as 0.2C is the lowest min at a synoptic station this season so far, this makes it the latest time without an air frost so far since 2017. In 2017, it wasn't until November 7th that the first air frost was recorded. The first frost in 2018 was 25th September, 2019 was 21st October and 2020 was 26th September.

2017 was also the last October to be totally air frost free at any station including climate stations.

appledrop

It's mad how mild it has been this October.

I don't know where I was going this month with my predictions. I think we got a cold day or two at end of Sept+ I thought that was it cold weather is here!

While I'll be bottom of table this month, I'm delighted it has been so mild that everyone has still been able to get out and about and enjoy autumn. One of best for me in years.

I know plenty of rain in Mullingar, but we have had plenty of dry days in Dublin.

appledrop

5.2mm in Mullingar on 24th.

That's 14/24.

We will wait and see if we get our max of 17.

appledrop

1.8mm yesterday in Mullingar.

That brings us to 15/25.

Good bit of rain forecast for next few days so wouldn't be surprised if we reach about 19 days.