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October 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 28-09-2021 9:31pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for October, 2021. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 10.1 deg C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during October.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature during October (see 2 above for overview).

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during October.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during October.

    6. BONUS -- Predict the number of days with at least 1.0 mm of rain at Mullingar. The average for 1981-2010 (website says 1979-2008) was 14 days. The average is 19 days for 0.2 mm or more so that tells us five days could produce small measurable amounts that won't count in the contest, in a typical October. Also to give you more info, the average number of days reaching 5.0 mm is listed as six. (that has no direct bearing on the contest). So just to be clear, amounts of 0.1 to 0.9 mm will not count, has to be 1.0 or greater.

    The deadline for the contest is as always 0300h on 1st of the month, with 1 point deductions for late forecasts each portion of four hours to 36 hours, then one point per hour. (five minute grace periods for each penalty phase)

    Good luck !!

    I have not thought much about October yet so will post my forecast and NormaL (max will be 20.5, min -2.5, everything else is already specified above) tomorrow or 30th.



«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,375 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Danno ----------- 10.4 ----- 18.8 --- 1.7 ------- 145 ------- 110 -------- 16



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry----------- 11.2----- 21.5--- 1.1 ------- 125 ------- 100-------- 14



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public--------- 11.9----- 24.3--- -1.9 ----- 120 ----- 97-------- 12

    Post edited by Joe Public on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal_______________ 10.3 _ 19.0 _ -2.0 _ 123 _ 095 _ 12



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen_______________ 10.9 _ 20.1 _ -4.0 _ 115 _ 105 _ 11

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    dasa29_______________ 10.8 _ 20.0 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 90 _ 15



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,102 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH_______________ 10.4 _ 20.3 _ -2.6 _ 092 _ 108 _ 10



  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 11.1 ___ 20.0 ___ -2.2 ___ 105 ___ 110 ___ 15



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002_______________ 10.6 ___ 20.7 ___ -1.6 ___ 115 ___ 105 ___ 13



  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways



    waterways ___ 10.5 ___ 22.7 ___ -3.1 ___ 130 ___ 95 ___ 16



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  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3________ 10.6_ 20.5 _ -1.5 _ 108_ 85 _ 16



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,607 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Appledrop__9.7__16.9__0.8__130__90__17



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa__10.6__21.1__-1.4__160__84__14



  • Registered Users Posts: 747 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610 __10.6 _ 20.2 _ -3.0 _ 115 _ 86_ 12



  • Registered Users Posts: 745 ✭✭✭ mr.stonewall


    Mr Stonewall__________10.9____19.1___0.3____126___73___12



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    M. T. Cranium _______ 11.4 _ 21.8 _ -2.2 _ 100 _ 100 _ 16

    NormaL ____________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 100 _ 14



  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner_____10.4____18.8°____-1.7°____91____105____11



  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ____________ 11.4 _ 21.8 _ -1.8 _ 128 _ 95 _ 17



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ____________ 10.5 _ 20.9 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 105 _ 16



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    John Mac 10.3...21.2.......-3.1......120....97....6



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Gonzo ___ 10.6 ___ 20.3 ___ -3.2 ___ 116 ___ 77 ___ 16



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,607 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    1st Oct-3.8mm of rain at Mullingar.

    That's Day 1 for Bonus question.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for October 2021


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ No. days 1.0 mm Mullingar


    Joe Public ______________ 11.9 _ 24.3 _-1.9 _ 120 _ 097 ____ 12

    Tae laidir _______________11.4 _ 21.8 _-1.8 _ 128 _ 095 ____ 17

    M. T. Cranium ___________ 11.4 _ 21.8 _-2.2 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 16

    Pauldry ________________ 11.2 _ 21.5 _ 1.1 _ 125 _ 100 ____ 14

    Kindred Spirit ___________ 11.1 _ 20.0 _-2.2 _ 105 _ 110 ____ 15

    sryanbruen______________10.9 _ 20.1 _-4.0 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 11

    Mr Stonewall ____________10.9 _ 19.1 _ 0.3 _ 126 _ 073 ____ 12

    dasa29 ________________ 10.8 _ 20.0 _-2.0 _ 100 _ 090 ____ 15

    Dacogawa ______________10.6 _ 21.1 _-1.4 _ 160 _ 084 ____ 14

    Artane2002_____________ 10.6 _ 20.7 _-1.6 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 13

    Sunflower3 _____________ 10.6_ 20.5 _-1.5 _ 108 _ 085 ____ 16


    ___ Con Sensus _________ 10.6 _ 20.3 _-2.0 _ 116 _ 100 ____ 14


    Gonzo ______ (-3) _______10.6 _ 20.3 _-3.2 _ 116 _ 077 ____ 16

    Adam240610 ___________ 10.6 _ 20.2 _-3.0 _ 115 _ 086 ____ 12

    waterways ______________10.5 _ 22.7 _-3.1 _ 130 _ 095 ____ 16

    Jpmarn ________________ 10.5 _ 20.9 _-2.0 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 16

    DOCARCH_______________10.4 _ 20.3 _-2.6 _ 092 _ 108 ____ 10

    Danno _________________10.4 _ 18.8 _ 1.7 _ 145 _ 110 ____ 16

    MrSkinner ______________10.4 _ 18.8 _-1.7 _ 091 _ 105 ____ 11

    John Mac ____ (-1) ______ 10.3 _ 21.2 _-3.1 _ 120 _ 097 _____ 6

    Bsal ___________________10.3 _ 19.0 _-2.0 _ 123 _ 095 ____ 12

    ___ NormaL ____________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _-2.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 14

    Appledrop _______________ 9.7 _ 16.9 _ 0.8 _ 130 _ 090 ____ 17

    ________________________________________________

    The frequency of guesses for the bonus was as follows:

    17_ 2 .... 16_ 6 .... 15_2 .... 14_2 .... 13_1 .... 12_4 .... 11_2 .... 10_1 .... 6_1


    The general consensus of our 21 forecasts seems to be a rather warm October with a bit of extra rainfall and near average sunshine.

    Could Danno and Pauldry confirm their forecast MIN values as they had a --- separation between their numbers, for Joe Public I could see a clear indication of a minus.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,607 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    2nd Oct 1.8mm of rain at Mullingar.

    That's Day 2 for bonus question.



  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Appledrop duplicate. Can't delete.

    Post edited by Tae laidir on


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,607 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Snap Tae Laidir!

    Ah lads why did I not read the weather forecast for next week before my forecast this month.

    There I am with my 17 degrees and everyone else has 20/21 degree Max for the warm weather coming next week.

    I wonder who will be bottom of table this month🤣.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Is Monday a bank holiday? Just wondering if I will see the September MS tomorrow to get the scoring finished. If it was a bank holiday that would not appear until Tuesday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 745 ✭✭✭ mr.stonewall


    I wish it was MTC. Just another normal Monday 😌😌



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    bank holiday is 25th .



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    I am 1.1c



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