October 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for October, 2021. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 10.1 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during October.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during October (see 2 above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during October.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during October.

6. BONUS -- Predict the number of days with at least 1.0 mm of rain at Mullingar. The average for 1981-2010 (website says 1979-2008) was 14 days. The average is 19 days for 0.2 mm or more so that tells us five days could produce small measurable amounts that won't count in the contest, in a typical October. Also to give you more info, the average number of days reaching 5.0 mm is listed as six. (that has no direct bearing on the contest). So just to be clear, amounts of 0.1 to 0.9 mm will not count, has to be 1.0 or greater.

The deadline for the contest is as always 0300h on 1st of the month, with 1 point deductions for late forecasts each portion of four hours to 36 hours, then one point per hour. (five minute grace periods for each penalty phase)

Good luck !!

I have not thought much about October yet so will post my forecast and NormaL (max will be 20.5, min -2.5, everything else is already specified above) tomorrow or 30th.

Danno

Danno ----------- 10.4 ----- 18.8 --- 1.7 ------- 145 ------- 110 -------- 16

pauldry

Pauldry----------- 11.2----- 21.5--- 1.1 ------- 125 ------- 100-------- 14

Joe Public

Joe Public--------- 11.9----- 24.3--- -1.9 ----- 120 ----- 97-------- 12

Bsal

Bsal_______________ 10.3 _ 19.0 _ -2.0 _ 123 _ 095 _ 12

sryanbruen

sryanbruen_______________ 10.9 _ 20.1 _ -4.0 _ 115 _ 105 _ 11

dasa29

dasa29_______________ 10.8 _ 20.0 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 90 _ 15

DOCARCH

DOCARCH_______________ 10.4 _ 20.3 _ -2.6 _ 092 _ 108 _ 10

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 11.1 ___ 20.0 ___ -2.2 ___ 105 ___ 110 ___ 15

Artane2002

Artane2002_______________ 10.6 ___ 20.7 ___ -1.6 ___ 115 ___ 105 ___ 13

waterways

waterways ___ 10.5 ___ 22.7 ___ -3.1 ___ 130 ___ 95 ___ 16

sunflower3

Sunflower3________ 10.6_ 20.5 _ -1.5 _ 108_ 85 _ 16

appledrop

Appledrop__9.7__16.9__0.8__130__90__17

dacogawa

Dacogawa__10.6__21.1__-1.4__160__84__14

adam240610

Adam240610 __10.6 _ 20.2 _ -3.0 _ 115 _ 86_ 12

mr.stonewall

Mr Stonewall__________10.9____19.1___0.3____126___73___12

M.T. Cranium

M. T. Cranium _______ 11.4 _ 21.8 _ -2.2 _ 100 _ 100 _ 16

NormaL ____________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 100 _ 14

mrskinner

Skinner_____10.4____18.8°____-1.7°____91____105____11

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ____________ 11.4 _ 21.8 _ -1.8 _ 128 _ 95 _ 17

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ____________ 10.5 _ 20.9 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 105 _ 16

John mac

John Mac 10.3...21.2.......-3.1......120....97....6

Gonzo

Gonzo ___ 10.6 ___ 20.3 ___ -3.2 ___ 116 ___ 77 ___ 16

appledrop

1st Oct-3.8mm of rain at Mullingar.

That's Day 1 for Bonus question.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for October 2021

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ No. days 1.0 mm Mullingar

Joe Public ______________ 11.9 _ 24.3 _-1.9 _ 120 _ 097 ____ 12

Tae laidir _______________11.4 _ 21.8 _-1.8 _ 128 _ 095 ____ 17

M. T. Cranium ___________ 11.4 _ 21.8 _-2.2 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 16

Pauldry ________________ 11.2 _ 21.5 _ 1.1 _ 125 _ 100 ____ 14

Kindred Spirit ___________ 11.1 _ 20.0 _-2.2 _ 105 _ 110 ____ 15

sryanbruen______________10.9 _ 20.1 _-4.0 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 11

Mr Stonewall ____________10.9 _ 19.1 _ 0.3 _ 126 _ 073 ____ 12

dasa29 ________________ 10.8 _ 20.0 _-2.0 _ 100 _ 090 ____ 15

Dacogawa ______________10.6 _ 21.1 _-1.4 _ 160 _ 084 ____ 14

Artane2002_____________ 10.6 _ 20.7 _-1.6 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 13

Sunflower3 _____________ 10.6_ 20.5 _-1.5 _ 108 _ 085 ____ 16

___ Con Sensus _________ 10.6 _ 20.3 _-2.0 _ 116 _ 100 ____ 14

Gonzo ______ (-3) _______10.6 _ 20.3 _-3.2 _ 116 _ 077 ____ 16

Adam240610 ___________ 10.6 _ 20.2 _-3.0 _ 115 _ 086 ____ 12

waterways ______________10.5 _ 22.7 _-3.1 _ 130 _ 095 ____ 16

Jpmarn ________________ 10.5 _ 20.9 _-2.0 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 16

DOCARCH_______________10.4 _ 20.3 _-2.6 _ 092 _ 108 ____ 10

Danno _________________10.4 _ 18.8 _ 1.7 _ 145 _ 110 ____ 16

MrSkinner ______________10.4 _ 18.8 _-1.7 _ 091 _ 105 ____ 11

John Mac ____ (-1) ______ 10.3 _ 21.2 _-3.1 _ 120 _ 097 _____ 6

Bsal ___________________10.3 _ 19.0 _-2.0 _ 123 _ 095 ____ 12

___ NormaL ____________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _-2.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 14

Appledrop _______________ 9.7 _ 16.9 _ 0.8 _ 130 _ 090 ____ 17

________________________________________________

The frequency of guesses for the bonus was as follows:

17_ 2 .... 16_ 6 .... 15_2 .... 14_2 .... 13_1 .... 12_4 .... 11_2 .... 10_1 .... 6_1

The general consensus of our 21 forecasts seems to be a rather warm October with a bit of extra rainfall and near average sunshine.

Could Danno and Pauldry confirm their forecast MIN values as they had a --- separation between their numbers, for Joe Public I could see a clear indication of a minus.

appledrop

2nd Oct 1.8mm of rain at Mullingar.

That's Day 2 for bonus question.

Tae laidir

Appledrop duplicate. Can't delete.

appledrop

Snap Tae Laidir!

Ah lads why did I not read the weather forecast for next week before my forecast this month.

There I am with my 17 degrees and everyone else has 20/21 degree Max for the warm weather coming next week.

I wonder who will be bottom of table this month🤣.

M.T. Cranium

Is Monday a bank holiday? Just wondering if I will see the September MS tomorrow to get the scoring finished. If it was a bank holiday that would not appear until Tuesday.

mr.stonewall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117972217#Comment_117972217

I wish it was MTC. Just another normal Monday 😌😌

John mac

bank holiday is 25th .

pauldry

I am 1.1c

Tae laidir

Mullingar 6.3mm yesterday.

That's 3 / 3.

Tae laidir

Mullingar 7.0 yesterday.

That's 4 / 4.

Tae laidir

Mullingar 3.2mm yesterday.

That's 5 / 5.

Raining in Mullingar at the moment!

Tae laidir

Mullingar 2.5mm yesterday.

That's 6 / 6.

John Mac hoping for a drought.

Tae laidir

Mullingar 0.3mm yesterday

That's 6 / 7

pauldry

Next week will be drier so Mullingars 90 percent hit rate will be much less by next weekend

M.T. Cranium

After one week ...

IMT 11.7 which is 0.3 above normal.

MAX 20.4 (PP 7th)

MIN around 3 C probably not going to survive to end of month

PRC 137 per cent of normal.

SUN has managed 134% (805/600).

BONUS so far 6 of 7 days (>1.0 mm Mullingar)

Tae laidir

Mullingar 3.1mm yesterday.

That's 7 / 8.

appledrop

And another day, Mullingar 3.7mm on 9th.

We are now at 8/9.

DOCARCH

2c at Mount Dillion atm.

M.T. Cranium

A rainfall or perhaps morning foggy dew of 0.2 mm on 10th not enough to qualify, so the count for Mullingar is 8/10 and will likely stay at 8 for a while now, I may check but not post updates until that 8 changes to 9 later in the month. Same goes for anyone else tracking this, you can assume that any zero day later this week will be noted so when rain does return, we can post 9 of whatever. The models show very small amounts in some eastern counties on Friday but it might not hit Mullingar at all. The current model run suggests maybe six to eight more days will occur eventually. It also suggests that the IMT will stall out or even rise a bit. Currently the IMT is up slightly from the first week report, at 12.1 C.

Tae laidir

Mount Dillon registered 2.3 yesterday.

Tae laidir

Markee Castle showing 0.2deg yesterday.

pauldry

Yup. The fridge of Ireland

M.T. Cranium

Forgot to update for two weeks so for the current values ... after 15 days ...

IMT was on 11.9 C. The past week (9th to 15th) had an average of 11.5 (0.8 above normal). The 8th was quite a warm day so that explains how the monthly average can be higher than either week in the report.

PRC is currently around normal for the period. The week just ended had only 21% of normal but the 8th which falls between the two weeks measured had heavy rain in the west so looking at the monthly data so far, will estimate around 95% as the current PRC value.

SUN remains well above normal. The week of 9th to 15th had 118%, so that even a cloudy outcome on the 8th leaves the month around 115% to 120%.

MAX so far is 20.4 and MIN 0.2.

The number of days with 1.0 mm or more rainfall at Mullingar has been stalled at 8 for several days, looks likely to pick up a few more from late today onward.

appledrop

6.1mm of rain at Mullingar yesterday.

That's 9/16 days now.

Today should increase that to 10.

Tae laidir

Mullingar just made it with 1.0mm.

That's 10 / 17.

Tae laidir

Mullingar 2.4mm yesterday.

That's 11 / 18

DOCARCH overtaken.

Sryanbruen & MrSkinner hoping for a drought.

appledrop

There is no drought about, looks like we will be up to 12 after today, but we will wait for official stats.

appledrop

1.3mm on 19th.

That's 12/19 and we all know it's bucketing down rain today so the count continues.