Michael D Higgins insists he is President of Ireland, refuses to commemorate partition

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118074803#Comment_118074803

It would actually be undemocratic to hold a border poll before next summer.

People north and south democratically agreed that a border poll would only be held "if at any time it appears likely to him (SoS) that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland".

Now unless the SoS is a blubbering idiot (not impossible to happen) then by holding a border poll next summer, he would be going against the democratically expressed wishes of the people of this island.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118074909#Comment_118074909

Not if it 'appears likely to him/her that a poll would be likely to succeed'.

Extraordinary partitionist projecting going on here.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118072809#Comment_118072809

So you'll not answer my other queries? Would you consider yourself a dissident republican? You seem to share similar views as them as regards the IRA and the GFA.

The IRA were labelled a terrorist organisation. SF couldn't speak on the BBC and were voiced by actors.

Roll on the GFA, we had the British government breaking bread with both until an amicable peace was reached.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118074909#Comment_118074909

Holding a election/border poll is now undemocratic

Imagine being so demented and solely.possessing reductive logic as.to.try argue this🤣🤣🤣

If you honetly believe in partion and argee with unionists,but refuse point blank to put it to a democratic test....only one conclusion to reasonably draw here

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075061#Comment_118075061

I did not say that holding an election/border poll is now undemocratic. That is a peculiar far-fetched distortion of my post.

What I did say was that holding a border poll now would be undemocratic.

There are significant differences and nuances between what I said and what you reported me saying. They might be lost on you, but hopefully my explanation (and the bolding) will help.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075061#Comment_118075061

The growing conversation about a UI poll has fascinating consequences.

I have said it will be amazing to see partitionists climb up onto the ramparts and politically voice an opinion, I genuinely didn't think the first port of call would be to try and block the vote.

I saw all the super majority talk, a mile off but not proposing that a BP would be undemocratic. Not after Britain's own courts found that there is no criteria the SoS needs to evidence for calling a poll.

I wonder f he/she did would there be a challenge in the courts? An unholy alliance of Kate Hoey, Jim Allister types and partitionists in the Supreme Court? Fascinating.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075181#Comment_118075181

You have completely misunderstood the court judgment as has been pointed out to you many times. The SoS being unconstrained in making his decision and not having to set out criteria in advance of reaching an opinion was the territory the court strayed into.

The court was completely silent on the issue of whether a SoS decision could be judicially reviewed afterwards, not just because the court wasn't aske, but also because that is a whole other question.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075159#Comment_118075159

How is it undemocratic to hold a border poll??

There is now a majority catholic/nationist pop in the north.....looks to me,yous are happy to piss all over democracy to demand partition remains

Time has run out on those whom.oppose democracy in the free state

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075238#Comment_118075238

Blanch...I cannot wait for the 'judicial review' if an unholy alliance is stupid enough to take one.

The SoS or the courts would have no business ruling out a JR that is why they said nothing about it and 'remained silent'.

A judicial review can be called at any time about any government body decision.

A judicial review will not look at who is right or who is wrong in the decision it is reviewing.

It will look at whether the proper procedure was followed as laid down. As the court has already said that the SoS is unconstrained in how he/she reaches his/her decision and that no evidence of how he/she reached his decision is necessary then the JR is bound to fail and only enrich some barristers.

You think you have found a way to undermine the judgement, but you haven't.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075181#Comment_118075181

Some what of a weird irony,those whom slur and abuse republicans for the troubles (some place blame for any violence at feet of nationlists) are now all of a sudden demanding no border poll be held because,wait for it(try not to snigger).....it would be undemocratic to hold one🤣🤣

Its just a pity mikey d didnt resign over ffg carryon undermining him....let.them fcukers face the electorate in a presidential election

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075309#Comment_118075309

They have said that the SoS does not have to set out the criteria in advance which is what was being sought. The judgment does not cover the area of a post-decision JR.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075283#Comment_118075283

What????? A majority catholic/nationalist pop in the north????

Where did you get that one from?

steddyeddy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118074469#Comment_118074469

Undefeated does not equate to won the war.

Brucie Bonus

Lads the state wants a UI. The GFA didn't change that. We know the British have jurisdiction over part of Ulster.

Before the GFA we had no road map towards a UI, we just stated we wanted it. Now we have a mechanism, by which it can be achieved agreed on by all sides. The GFA brings us closer to a UI.

crossman47

I think a lot of the comment here is in cloud cuckoo land. A lot of people say they want a UI. That doesn't mean they'll vote for it. I hear the comment "a plague on both their houses" often or " They're all mad up there, I don't want anything to do with either side - only bringing trouble on ourselves". A lot of work is needed to convince people of that mindset that a UI will work peacefully.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075477#Comment_118075477

Yes, they said that in the most recent case McCord took and lost.

Here is the judgement from the first case he took and also lost,

[18] In the present case the Secretary of State is given a discretionary power to order a border poll under Schedule 1 paragraph 1 even where she is not of the view that it is likely that the majority of voters would vote for Northern Ireland to cease to be part of the United Kingdom and to become part of a united Ireland. Under paragraph 2 she is subject to a duty to call a border poll “if at any time it appears to her” that a majority would be likely to vote in favour of leaving the United Kingdom and joining a united Ireland. The discretionary power as opposed to the mandatory duty to call a poll could be exercised by the Secretary of State for a number of different reasons and in different circumstances. For example, the Secretary of State could call a poll in order to give a quietus to the controversial question of a united Ireland for a period of time if she thinks that a majority would vote in favour of remaining in the United Kingdom. She could direct such a poll if there was a doubt in her mind as to whether a majority was to be found on one side or the other. She could decide to call such a poll if persuaded by political representatives that it would be desirable to sound the people out on the issue or to close the issue for a number of years. The precise circumstances and the political context of a decision are variable and highly political. Decision-making in this area requires a political assessment on the part of the Secretary of State and in this context political flexibility and judgment are called for. In such a context I am wholly unpersuaded by the argument that the Secretary of State is to be bound by a policy detailing the way in which that flexible and politically sensitive power is bound to be exercised. Mr Lavery recognised that a policy would have to have elements of flexibility within it. That being the context the cases called in aid by Mr Lavery in support of the proposition that there is a legal duty on the Secretary of State to have in place a policy provide no authority for such a principle. In exercising her powers the Secretary of State must determine what she considers to be the relevant considerations to be taken into account or left out of account in deciding the political question whether the calling of a border poll would in the circumstances be appropriate.

[20] Schedule 1 paragraph 2 imposes a duty on the Secretary of State to exercise the power to call a border poll if it appears likely to her that a majority would favour a united Ireland. If the evidence leads the Secretary of State to believe that the majority would so vote then she has no choice but to call a border poll. It is necessarily implied in this provision that the Secretary of State must honestly reflect on the evidence available to her to see whether it leads her to the conclusion that the majority would be likely to vote in favour of a united Ireland. Evidence of election results and opinion polls may form part of the evidential context in which to exercise the judgment whether it appears to the Secretary of State that there is likely to be a majority for a united Ireland. The overall evidential context on how it should be analysed and viewed is a matter for the Secretary of State. The conclusion will have to take account of a wide range of factors and considerations dependent on prevailing circumstances.

McCord's (Raymond) Application..pdf (judiciaryni.uk)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075486#Comment_118075486

Census results to be released next august,will.show it

Preliminary results are believed to hint strongly at it,hence the sudden fg buyin for it last summer.....its kind of an open.secret now,like how gerry adams was in the ira,or for a partionist view point,how simon harris leaks everything

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075477#Comment_118075477

Lools to me,the criteria has been met....time to just get on with it

Its no longer a matter of if,but when

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075567#Comment_118075567

"It is necessarily implied in this provision that the Secretary of State must honestly reflect on the evidence available to her to see whether it leads her to the conclusion that the majority would be likely to vote in favour of a united Ireland. Evidence of election results and opinion polls may form part of the evidential context in which to exercise the judgment whether it appears to the Secretary of State that there is likely to be a majority for a united Ireland. The overall evidential context on how it should be analysed and viewed is a matter for the Secretary of State. The conclusion will have to take account of a wide range of factors and considerations dependent on prevailing circumstances."

The key word here is "honestly". If a Minister is required to exercise a power "honestly", they can be subject to judicial review as to whether they did in fact honestly excercise that power.

The references you quoted in respect of Schedule 1 paragraph 1 are immaterial to consideration of a GFA border poll.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075651#Comment_118075651

Would yous not think demographics would have a bigger say,such as census results?

Imo if there is a cat/nationlist majority,its deeply undemocratic to demand no poll be held and utterly weird to say holding a poll is umdemocratic

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075629#Comment_118075629

It is likely, but not certain, that Catholics may outnumber Protestants in the 2021 poll, but a bit like Mary-Lou claiming to have won the election in 2020, it is not the result you think it is. All it may show is that Catholic numbers are falling more slowly than Protestant numbers.

The middle ground, who are accepting of the status quo, is growing drawing ranks from everywhere.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2021/10/26/the-emergence-of-a-middle-ground/#more-138134

This has been written about extensively, and in many ways, pushes a border poll further into the future as the political landscape adjusts to this new reality.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075676#Comment_118075676

If you are referring to the part in quotation marks, that is direct from the court judgment and does not necessarily represent my views as to what the SoS would decide to take into account.

There won't be a catholic/nationalist majority, I have just explained that to you. Catholics/nationalist may well be the largest grouping, but only one of several, and definitely not a majority. In the same way that happened to SF after the last election with FF and FG joining a coalition, Unionists and Northern Irish would vote for the status quo in a border poll.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075651#Comment_118075651

Nobody, repeat NOBODY, is saying you cannot take a Judicial Review.

Judicial Review all you want as I say, it will be as futile and hilarious as the current challenges to democratically taken decisions to sign agreements.

You have to prove the SoS was dishonest in selecting criteria they have the freedom to choose.

Best of luck with that. Unionists and partitionist strategy not looking to improve anytime soon. 'We are anti democratic enough to block a border poll and expect the current situation to pertain should we win'. Brilliant, bring it on! :) :)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075681#Comment_118075681

Lolz any excuse to demand no border poll,a catholic/nationlist majority is no longer enough

Looks to me criteria has been met,and theres no need other than utter hatred for democracy to not hold a border poll before st patricks day....just get on with it,partition has failed

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075694#Comment_118075694

Again, you are misunderstanding the use of the word "honestly" in that judicial context. To be "honest" the SoS will have to be transparent and truthful and set out their reasoning. If that reasoning is deeply flawed (I spoke to a lad on the Shankill road and that convinced me to hold one), then yes, the referendum decision could be subject to a successful challenge.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075693#Comment_118075693

Looks to me an easy to test your theory (from.same pool of delusion that thinks holding elections/polls is undemocratic...mind you thats golden logic🤣)...

.hold the poll....unless yous are just blowing smoke and unwilling to face the electorate with your theory??

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075698#Comment_118075698

Which bit of there won't be a catholic/nationalist majority do you not understand?????

You are like the SF hacks after the election who thought they had a majority because they had the highest vote. A nationalist identity will at best only get to 40% of the population in that census, it could be far less.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075703#Comment_118075703

The overall evidential context on how it should be analysed and viewed is a matter for the Secretary of State.

As I said, good luck proving dishonesty.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075708#Comment_118075708

But such a poll wouldn't meet the criteria set by the GFA. It has to be seen to be likely to pass, not that the nationalists are now 35%, while the unionists are 33%, and the other 32% are Northern Irish. That just doesn't give a border poll. Instead, it behoves a wider conversation about new identity in the North and new avenues for that identity.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075713#Comment_118075713

Fairly simple to see whos right here.....only one of us demanding democracy be blocked to perpetuate our pov

Tell us again how/why holding elections/border polls is now undemocratic?