Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2021 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Tyrone212

Storm risk has lessened on GFS and UKMO. UKMO had gusts of 172kmh just off Malin on previous run. Just looks like run of the mill stuff now. The snow risk however has increased. I'd rather have had a wild Storm than the snow as its been so long since we had one.

Meteorite58

Yeah all the models have toned down the wind speeds considerably this morning, ARPEGE still a bit strong but on average on the current output looking more like strong winds along Northern coasts, windy along coasts in general and blustery overland with wintery showers more so in Northern counties.

pauldry

Ya it shifted to east of UK now. May even miss them now.

I think storms are afraid of Ireland these days.

sryanbruen

Latest GFS goes a bit crazy for Saturday with a genuinely cold arctic maritime airmass being advected southward - widespread snow showers follow across the country. Mind that the GFS does go a bit overboard with the cold 850s and other models not nearly as bullish. Any kind of blustery winds will lead to modification however aloft. From severely strong northerly winds to bitter cold and snow in 12 hours eh 😂

pauldry

Ya it's all over the place tbh because of fast jet and the track of Wednesdays front. There is also a mild sector from Thursday into Friday so people here will be saying I thought it was supposed to snow today. Best chance of any lying snow will be early Saturday morning but near coasts it will probably be too windy so inland North and West.

Gonzo

The jetstream will most likely become more active in fast moving over the next few weeks as both the AO and NAO are set to go positive within the next week.

Meteorite58

ECM, ARPEGE and GFS showing stronger on the latest runs for Fri into Sat, currently very windy even stormy in Northern coastal counties getting up to 120 or 130 km/h in general, maybe a stronger gust on a headland or exposed stretch of elevated coast.. Strong winds up to 80-100km/h running along Western and Eastern coasts but maybe not penetrating far inland. In general gusting up to 80 or 90 km/h overland, possibly higher gusts on elevated ground.

UKMO has eased off a lot and ICON showing very strong winds along Northern coasts.

Bit to go yet.

Meteorite58

Convective ability Friday also with cold unstable air over the relatively warm sea. Could be some big hail showers and maybe some getting electrified.

Sammy2012

Any further updates on Friday evening??

pauldry

Windy Friday evening probably gusting to 100kph in the North and Northwest possibly a little higher in the Northeast. Widespread wintry showers of hail or sleet more especially in the North and West. Snow mainly confined to the mountains due to the wind blowing off an 11c sea.

Gonzo

It won't be cold enough for snow this weekend except on the highest of peaks up north. We may have to watch on in envy at the fun and games in Scotland and eastern England as they will get their first snowfall of the season.

almostthere12

No wonder it has gone so quiet in here!

pad199207

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215598#Comment_118215598

I wouldn’t be envious with Scotland because of the fact we all accept that Scotland will always get the snow and we don’t. Eastern England yeah probably would be envious but even this weekend it will be a push for the majority of them there to see settling snow.

pauldry

Hailstones can be exciting and whitening. Maybe we'll get an owl blast of them.

ascophyllum

The wind direction may be significant with this system in the North and Northwest, a lot of large structures like sheds and slatted houses have their open side facing North as it's rare to get gale-force winds from that direction, I can't remember the last gale from the North. Everything is usually secured to be sheltered from the southerly and westerly gales. Around our own place there are some loose items sheltered from the southwest, to be secured before the North wind comes.

Meteorite58

Even at this stage a big spread between the models in strength. ARPEGE and UKMO showing very strong winds, Stormy in fact and very strong winds penetrating far inland , on the other hand ECMWF, GFS and ICON keeping mainly to the coasts ( the N/ NE getting high winds inland a bit perhaps in coastal areas ) and blustery overland. All fairly reliable models at this close to the event yet so different. Some models are not performing well here but which ones. Should we look at an average between them ?? The Met office has a yellow warning for N Ireland and N England and Scotland on Fri and nearly all the UK on Sat yet the ECM wouldn't show this, again strong on coasts but not penetrating that strong inland. Trying to compare how the models predict the very fast jet , initially on Fri it would seen they are all quite close, bit of a slight change into Saturday but nothing huge. Flummoxed! 😃

Maybe the Hi Res models will be more tuned in later.

Meteorite58

EURO4 can overdo it but this chart looks potentially stormy ??

ICON a bit stronger in Northern areas and down along the East on the latest 18Z run

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118218462#Comment_118218462

18z ICON shifts them winds a little further east and stronger across Ulster and a upgrade. Coastal areas look like the would be a no go zone. Tomorrow mornings runs should give us a better Idea.

Billcarson

I would imagine it will feel very bitter in those strong winds considering the direction the storm is coming from with a big wind chill.

pauldry

I think the average runs I've seen all week show that when the strongest winds come to us the strongest of them hit Northwest England and the Irish Sea. Some areas in the East might get a surprise. Malin Hd will probably breach 100kph but by much who knows. Hail rain and sleet in the showers

Meteorite58

UKMO has totally eased off the stormy weather moving inland, more in line with the ECMWF now, ARPEGE also toned down, Hi Res models showing very windy onshore winds along N counties, perhaps quite windy along the E for a time, windy along coasts and blustery across the country with some squally showers.

ECMWF and GFS fairly consistent the last few runs.

Meteorite58

iconeu_uk1-11-38-0.png

iconeu_uk1-11-36-0.png

ICON 06Z has produced its strongest wind chart yet this morning for Northern counties and showing very windy down through Eastern counties, AROME rolling out, will be interesting.

pauldry

Met Eireann fairly bullish in their outlook this morning. Maybe they looked at ICON. If this storm doesn't happen which is 50/50 there's no real weather for most of December bar the Southwest mild and very mild blandness. Could be 16c some day in December this year. Christ!

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118220215#Comment_118220215

Let’s hope it’s not Christmas Day although knowing our luck…

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118220215#Comment_118220215

First half of December is likely to be bland and either mild or exceptionally mild. Hopefully we will see more interesting changes into the second half of the month. There is also the possibility that the Atlantic may become fairly active for early December but that remains to be seen.

Meteorite58

The French models, ICON and Euro4 all suggesting more widespread warnings, and would suggest possible Orange warnings in Northern counties including the NW bringing the stronger winds more inland yet ECM and GFS still looking less windy and keeping higher gusts to the coasts or coastal areas???

Unusual to see such a difference between the models.

pauldry

It's going to the wire.

Personally I think Dublin is in for a shock. Gusts of 100kph can cause a lot of damage there. However even a slight shift East and I'll be eating humble pie but a lot of forecasted gales are in Irish Sea

Oscar Bravo

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Donegal

• Through Friday afternoon, evening and night, northerly winds will reach mean speed of 45 to 65 km/hr with gusts of 90 to 110 km/hr with significantly higher gusts at times along north facing coasts and on the Inishowen Peninsula.
• Possible wave and spray overtopping along north facing coasts at times of High tide on Friday night.
• Valid: 15:00 Friday 26/11/2021 to 06:00 Saturday 27/11/2021
• Issued: 15:47 Wednesday 24/11/2021

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Mayo, Sligo

• Through Friday afternoon, evening and night, northerly winds will reach mean speed of 45 to 65 Km/hr with gusts of 90 to 110 km/hr
• Possibility of wave and spray overtopping along north facing coasts at times of High tide on Friday night.
• Valid: 15:00 Friday 26/11/2021 to 05:00 Saturday 27/11/2021

Tyrone212

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118221402#Comment_118221402

The high res models would be the form horse at this range surely? The warning for Donegal mentions gusts of 90 to 110kmh but significantly higher gusts in the Inishowen peninsula. I never saw a warning worded like that before. Significantly higher than the top end of their predicted gusts. Unusual not give a range of gusts like normal, must be high uncertainty in Glasnevin to have it worded like that.

Any predictions for Malin Head max gust?

ascophyllum

Very benign forecast just now on RTE, no mention of potentially damaging gusts in the Northwest from an unusual direction? Even the lightest model shows Northerly winds in excess of 90km/hr. For some folk in Donegal, this is the only forecast they'll see and they'll likely take no action tomorrow in the daylight hours.