Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2021 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame) for Autumn 2021.

If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved or deleted- please use the Spring Discussion thread for general chat.

Thanks

After a sunny and warm week last week, it has turned noticeably cooler and very cloudy over the past few days. Despite upper air temperatures being decent, the temperatures here at the surface do not reflect the rather warm uppers.

This relatively cool and mostly cloudy setup looks like continuing for another few days. There may be a few short lived glimses of sunshine but these will be few and far between in most areas and temperatures generally mid teens but may get into the high teens or low twenties during spells of sunshine in western areas. We will hold onto the dry conditions until later in the weekend with rain coming back across Ireland from late Sunday into Monday. However I feel there is still a bit of uncertainty with this rain as high pressure tries to hold on into the first half of next week.

It may become warmer from Monday into Tuesday with an area of high pressure ridging over us and this time winds will be from a much milder south-westerly or southerly wind direction lifting temperatures back up in eastern and northern areas.

The ECM is also pushing towards a warmer week next week with a warm southerly or south-easterly drifting up off a warm continent.

The biggest question mark is what will happen to the weather from this Sunday. Will it turn more unsettled or could it turn potentially warmer and remaining dry with a few days of continental warmth and maybe one last blast of summer style weather and temperatures.

Gonzo

It looks like it will turn warmer from this weekend after a rather cool and very cloudy week. We may get a heat spike on Tuesday with some very warm temperatures for the time of year. 25 or 26C is possible on Tuesday if there is decent spells of sunshine. It will still be warm on Wednesday but turning progressively cooler after that.

GFS tends to undercook temperatures by 2 or 3C so mid twenties possible on Monday and Tuesday.

Danno

Lots of uncertainty at the moment as the tropical storm season nears its peak - when these left over storms drift north and catch the jet stream they can throw our weather patterns out of kilter. A sure sign that Autumn is nigh. Interestingly, the stronger storms tend to amplify the jet more //sometimes// and that knock on effect on Ireland can bring anything from Indian Summers, to bitterly cold NW'lys or even soakings like September 2010.

This year is going to be an interesting one, a predicted "stormier" season coupled with a cold arctic could see alot of early-Autumn "bombing" or cyclogenesis south of Greenland. That pattern would give rise to a balmy southwesterly over Ireland, perhaps a bartlett high set up in the Autumn months before the Caribbean cools off. We could be looking at a notably wet and mild mid-late Autumn.

If eastern Canada can stay relatively mild during Autumn, then our Winter gets interesting.

Meteorite58

Looking even milder again now in general for the week, rainfall amounts look less also , NW might see a decent amount but still nothing huge.

Meteorite58

Quite wet and breezy on Sunday, windy for a time along Atlantic coasts as the cold front approaches , could be some squally rain going through across the country on Sunday and charts have been showing a possible increase in wind speeds along the Eastern half of the country especially more towards the coasts for a time later in the evening/night . Noticeable temperature change with cooler air following as the front clears.

pauldry

Yes I think on Sunday Autumn in its truest sense arrives by all consensus. Better clean out the old rain gauge and get measuring again as it's full of spider webs from all this relatively dry weather.

Meteorite58

Models have shifted much of the heaviest rain off shore tomorrow, now looks like the SE, E getting the most rain into Monday morning. Breezy and blustery at times but nothing too strong.

Meteorite58

Models showing deep areas of LP nearby around Fri /Sat so possibly windy depending on track. UKMO showing a secondary Low developing and hints of that in the ECMWF also. ICON showing it deepening considerably but still far too early to know for sure. Could be our first true windy spell of Autumn, will see.

Meteorite58

Watching how this will develop over next weekend. Area of rapidly deepening low Pressure developing to the SW of Ireland and moving in a N or NE direction but which track is the question ?? I put it in here as it starts to develop before +120hrs .

No doubt the UKMO ,of the main models, is the strongest atm .

Too much uncertainty to know which track and how strong it will be but no doubt being watched closely by meteorologists on these islands. Could easily be a named storm.

Been watching ICON and it is throwing out some extreme charts over the last few runs but different tracks and timings with each run, latest one showing it very deep and tracking across Ireland and dumping huge amounts of rain with very strong winds . UKMO showing similar heavy rains just off and touching Western coasts and very strong winds. ECM the weakest for us atm as it brings the less developed system over the UK. GFS different again bringing strong winds into France much later. Early days and loads of time for lots of changes one way or the other but interesting to see how it develops and what will come of it.

Meteorite58

Models more aligned showing the deep area of LP for the most part not effecting Ireland on Sunday as it deepens to the E /NE of the UK but there are areas of disturbance associated with it that have the potential to bring some strong winds to some part of the country.

pauldry

Ya likely windy but not stormy in the coming days.

The worst misses us but plenty of rain too and could be near 100mm in the next week in the Northwest

Meteorite58

Blustery and wet overnight Weds into Thurs, breezy day to follow with heavy showers and some longer spells of rain , quite blustery on coasts on Thurs

Meteorite58

Thurs night into Friday looking quite windy along the W, NW and N as a fast moving Lp swings close to Northern coasts and leaving a blustery day in its wake across the Northern half of the country. Showery , wettest in the NW.

Meteorite58

Getting milder as the week goes on and signs of it getting into the high teens or even 20C and looking very wet now along Atlantic coastal counties and wet into the Western half of the country as we get sandwiched between Lp to the W and Hp to the E in a brisk S'ly / SW'ly moisture laden humid airflow with a long fetch from mid latitudes.

Meteorite58

Another very mild day tomorrow and quite mild on Tuesday also before it cools down Weds, Thurs and Fri with low temps at night, might get a touch of frost in a few sheltered places inland in the latter half of the week.

Meteorite58

French models picking up quick moving disturbance's Weds night into early Thurs morning crossing the country, strongest winds in narrow bands on a track from the NW to the SE and skimming Northern counties, nothing major but isobars tightening to produce some windy weather for an hour or so as they transits fairly quickly .

ECM picking up an area of LP crossing Northern counties and bringing a windy spell to parts of Ulster and North Leinster for a few hours overnight Weds into early Thurs morning. Maybe windy enough to give a yellow warning for a short time in Donegal.

Meteorite58

Dodged the weather moving into Southern England and France. Some very windy and heavy rain in Cornwall this evening.

Bit of a difference in the model predictions for wind tonight and early morning for Ireland, ECM showing very windy for a time in the NW and moving across Northern counties and N Leinster, UKMO /EURO 4 brining the strongest winds into the W and moving in a SE direction, French models showing the SW getting clipped , ICON Flash like the UKMO. Nothing huge, could produce strong winds on the coasts for a short time and blustery overland, might hear it overnight

as has been so calm for such a long time.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1450847755014922249?s=20

https://twitter.com/Met4CastUK/status/1450884292951818249?s=20

Meteorite58

Quite a wet week overall starting overnight tonight into tomorrow and looks to linger in the W and showers along Atlantic coastal counties , rain band spreading again slowly across the country later Tuesday and pivoting over the country on Weds and possible another slow moving band of rain moving up over the country later Weds from the S into Thurs, maybe slow to clear the East. Further rain to follow later Thurs into Friday.

Some of the predicted 24hr rainfall totals and last one ( different colour scale ) a rough guide to what the total accumulation might look like but this of course subject to change one way or the other.

Meteorite58

UKMO turned up a stormy picture for later Fri into Sat morning, GFS is on it, ICON and ARPEGE look to be following suit ( a bit to go as ARPEGE just goes out to +114 hrs in the higher Res, ECM 0Z didn't have it , will be interesting to see what it shows when the 12Z comes out soon. Fast moving system on the current runs aided by a fast Jet. Have seen many twists and turns in the charts over the last few days, will see where this one goes.

Meteorite58

ECM showing it now also, moving like the clappers being steered by the fast Jet, tracking more East than the others, long way to go though as usual before any clear idea of strength and final track. Initially maybe as low as 975hPa as it approaches Scotland on a sprint from Iceland and filling thereafter.

Low temperatures and feeling raw in the wind. Could get some wintry showers from the along the N,NW, NE perhaps if it pulls in enough cold air with it

Meteorite58

GFS currently showing very strong winds for Fri, ICON EU Higher res model just coming into range and ICON keeping a similar track to the ECMWF.

Meteorite58

ARPEGE and UKMO at this stage showing very severe winds Fri into Sat, next GFS very strong and then ECMWF 0Z more keeping the strong winds along the coasts and coastal areas, ICON for once showing the least strongest winds on its latest run . Bit to go yet, ECMWF 12Z coming out soon will be interesting.

Gonzo

ECM keeps it very windy this weekend, particularly on Saturday with possibly a severe wind chill to go along with it.

Meteorite58

Yeah ECM seems to prolong the strong winds more well into Saturday, certainly looks very windy / stormy along the NW/ N and NE coasts, it has shifted the strongest winds in over Ireland since the last run . It looks savage cold also and latest run has a lot more wintry weather with hail, sleet , snow showers and thunderstorms possible..... just to add a bit more into the fray!

Would have to think at this stage that it will be at least very windy and cold with wintry showers.

Meteorite58

Looking very cold in parts of Munster tomorrow morning, Kerry especially with fog forecast, could look spectacular in the morning with the place glistening after the fog. Up early for a few pics 😀

Gonzo

After a very dry November up to this point it will turn more unsettled from Friday with rain or showers along with strong winds. The rain/showers may turn wintry in places particularly over high ground from Friday evening and into Saturday with a mixture of rain, sleet and possibly wet snow.

Meteorite58

UKMO churning out some very extreme charts now for a number of runs, not going to say it is going to be as strong as currently shown but something is afoot.

ICON has been the weakest of the bunch so far but a bit stronger on the latest run, GFS a bit less strong on the latest run, would think that the ECM is about average of the bunch now.

pauldry

I see the winds are shifting ever further East on each run so by the time it happens it will probably be blizzards in Scotland and blustery showers with 90kph gusts in Ireland.

Gonzo

Scotland and parts of North-eastern England could see some fairly significant snowfall over the weekend, a bit like last winter where Scotland and NE England were in the cold sectors most of the time and resulted in plenty of snow.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118208788#Comment_118208788

GFS has moved a bit further East but the ECM moved more West the last two runs centering the winds over Ireland, ICON was very much on the East but a bit more centered over Ireland on the last run. Very fast moving system, there hasn't been too much deviation in tracks over the last few runs, well no wild shift anyway but yes would think it could eventually track a bit further East. Time will tell.

Donegal Ken

Something is definitely bruing on Friday into Saturday with some Moderate type storm possible at least which is currently at the more strong and severe end at the moment. The GFS runs at a lower resolution to the Ecmwf, UKMO and Icon but still shows a rather strong winds. The Arpege is also showing severe wind especially across parts of the northwest and north enough to cause potential damage. The next 24 hours should give us a better idea of the situation and if we are still seen outputs like today from the forecast model don't be surprise to see the Met Office uk name this storm by tomorrow evening. Met Éireann may also put out a weather Advisory at some stage on Tuesday for very stormy conditions on Friday into Saturday with the risk of wintery conditions this weekend. A interesting few hours model watching ahead.

Tyrone212

Storm risk has lessened on GFS and UKMO. UKMO had gusts of 172kmh just off Malin on previous run. Just looks like run of the mill stuff now. The snow risk however has increased. I'd rather have had a wild Storm than the snow as its been so long since we had one.

Meteorite58

Yeah all the models have toned down the wind speeds considerably this morning, ARPEGE still a bit strong but on average on the current output looking more like strong winds along Northern coasts, windy along coasts in general and blustery overland with wintery showers more so in Northern counties.

pauldry

Ya it shifted to east of UK now. May even miss them now.

I think storms are afraid of Ireland these days.

sryanbruen

Latest GFS goes a bit crazy for Saturday with a genuinely cold arctic maritime airmass being advected southward - widespread snow showers follow across the country. Mind that the GFS does go a bit overboard with the cold 850s and other models not nearly as bullish. Any kind of blustery winds will lead to modification however aloft. From severely strong northerly winds to bitter cold and snow in 12 hours eh 😂

pauldry

Ya it's all over the place tbh because of fast jet and the track of Wednesdays front. There is also a mild sector from Thursday into Friday so people here will be saying I thought it was supposed to snow today. Best chance of any lying snow will be early Saturday morning but near coasts it will probably be too windy so inland North and West.

Gonzo

The jetstream will most likely become more active in fast moving over the next few weeks as both the AO and NAO are set to go positive within the next week.

Meteorite58

ECM, ARPEGE and GFS showing stronger on the latest runs for Fri into Sat, currently very windy even stormy in Northern coastal counties getting up to 120 or 130 km/h in general, maybe a stronger gust on a headland or exposed stretch of elevated coast.. Strong winds up to 80-100km/h running along Western and Eastern coasts but maybe not penetrating far inland. In general gusting up to 80 or 90 km/h overland, possibly higher gusts on elevated ground.

UKMO has eased off a lot and ICON showing very strong winds along Northern coasts.

Bit to go yet.

Meteorite58

Convective ability Friday also with cold unstable air over the relatively warm sea. Could be some big hail showers and maybe some getting electrified.

Sammy2012

Any further updates on Friday evening??

pauldry

Windy Friday evening probably gusting to 100kph in the North and Northwest possibly a little higher in the Northeast. Widespread wintry showers of hail or sleet more especially in the North and West. Snow mainly confined to the mountains due to the wind blowing off an 11c sea.

Gonzo

It won't be cold enough for snow this weekend except on the highest of peaks up north. We may have to watch on in envy at the fun and games in Scotland and eastern England as they will get their first snowfall of the season.

almostthere12

No wonder it has gone so quiet in here!

pad199207

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215598#Comment_118215598

I wouldn’t be envious with Scotland because of the fact we all accept that Scotland will always get the snow and we don’t. Eastern England yeah probably would be envious but even this weekend it will be a push for the majority of them there to see settling snow.

pauldry

Hailstones can be exciting and whitening. Maybe we'll get an owl blast of them.

ascophyllum

The wind direction may be significant with this system in the North and Northwest, a lot of large structures like sheds and slatted houses have their open side facing North as it's rare to get gale-force winds from that direction, I can't remember the last gale from the North. Everything is usually secured to be sheltered from the southerly and westerly gales. Around our own place there are some loose items sheltered from the southwest, to be secured before the North wind comes.

Meteorite58

Even at this stage a big spread between the models in strength. ARPEGE and UKMO showing very strong winds, Stormy in fact and very strong winds penetrating far inland , on the other hand ECMWF, GFS and ICON keeping mainly to the coasts ( the N/ NE getting high winds inland a bit perhaps in coastal areas ) and blustery overland. All fairly reliable models at this close to the event yet so different. Some models are not performing well here but which ones. Should we look at an average between them ?? The Met office has a yellow warning for N Ireland and N England and Scotland on Fri and nearly all the UK on Sat yet the ECM wouldn't show this, again strong on coasts but not penetrating that strong inland. Trying to compare how the models predict the very fast jet , initially on Fri it would seen they are all quite close, bit of a slight change into Saturday but nothing huge. Flummoxed! 😃

Maybe the Hi Res models will be more tuned in later.

Meteorite58

EURO4 can overdo it but this chart looks potentially stormy ??

ICON a bit stronger in Northern areas and down along the East on the latest 18Z run

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118218462#Comment_118218462

18z ICON shifts them winds a little further east and stronger across Ulster and a upgrade. Coastal areas look like the would be a no go zone. Tomorrow mornings runs should give us a better Idea.

Billcarson

I would imagine it will feel very bitter in those strong winds considering the direction the storm is coming from with a big wind chill.

pauldry

I think the average runs I've seen all week show that when the strongest winds come to us the strongest of them hit Northwest England and the Irish Sea. Some areas in the East might get a surprise. Malin Hd will probably breach 100kph but by much who knows. Hail rain and sleet in the showers