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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2021 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 01-09-2021 2:24pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Mod Note


    This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame) for Autumn 2021.


    If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved or deleted- please use the Spring Discussion thread for general chat.


    Thanks


    After a sunny and warm week last week, it has turned noticeably cooler and very cloudy over the past few days. Despite upper air temperatures being decent, the temperatures here at the surface do not reflect the rather warm uppers.

    This relatively cool and mostly cloudy setup looks like continuing for another few days. There may be a few short lived glimses of sunshine but these will be few and far between in most areas and temperatures generally mid teens but may get into the high teens or low twenties during spells of sunshine in western areas. We will hold onto the dry conditions until later in the weekend with rain coming back across Ireland from late Sunday into Monday. However I feel there is still a bit of uncertainty with this rain as high pressure tries to hold on into the first half of next week.

    It may become warmer from Monday into Tuesday with an area of high pressure ridging over us and this time winds will be from a much milder south-westerly or southerly wind direction lifting temperatures back up in eastern and northern areas.

    The ECM is also pushing towards a warmer week next week with a warm southerly or south-easterly drifting up off a warm continent.

    The biggest question mark is what will happen to the weather from this Sunday. Will it turn more unsettled or could it turn potentially warmer and remaining dry with a few days of continental warmth and maybe one last blast of summer style weather and temperatures.



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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    It looks like it will turn warmer from this weekend after a rather cool and very cloudy week. We may get a heat spike on Tuesday with some very warm temperatures for the time of year. 25 or 26C is possible on Tuesday if there is decent spells of sunshine. It will still be warm on Wednesday but turning progressively cooler after that.

    GFS tends to undercook temperatures by 2 or 3C so mid twenties possible on Monday and Tuesday.




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Quite wet and breezy on Sunday, windy for a time along Atlantic coasts as the cold front approaches , could be some squally rain going through across the country on Sunday and charts have been showing a possible increase in wind speeds along the Eastern half of the country especially more towards the coasts for a time later in the evening/night . Noticeable temperature change with cooler air following as the front clears.





  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Yes I think on Sunday Autumn in its truest sense arrives by all consensus. Better clean out the old rain gauge and get measuring again as it's full of spider webs from all this relatively dry weather.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Models have shifted much of the heaviest rain off shore tomorrow, now looks like the SE, E getting the most rain into Monday morning. Breezy and blustery at times but nothing too strong.






  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58



    Models showing deep areas of LP nearby around Fri /Sat so possibly windy depending on track. UKMO showing a secondary Low developing and hints of that in the ECMWF also. ICON showing it deepening considerably but still far too early to know for sure. Could be our first true windy spell of Autumn, will see.








  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Models more aligned showing the deep area of LP for the most part not effecting Ireland on Sunday as it deepens to the E /NE of the UK but there are areas of disturbance associated with it that have the potential to bring some strong winds to some part of the country.







  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Ya likely windy but not stormy in the coming days.

    The worst misses us but plenty of rain too and could be near 100mm in the next week in the Northwest



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Blustery and wet overnight Weds into Thurs, breezy day to follow with heavy showers and some longer spells of rain , quite blustery on coasts on Thurs







  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Thurs night into Friday looking quite windy along the W, NW and N as a fast moving Lp swings close to Northern coasts and leaving a blustery day in its wake across the Northern half of the country. Showery , wettest in the NW.







  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58



    French models picking up quick moving disturbance's Weds night into early Thurs morning crossing the country, strongest winds in narrow bands on a track from the NW to the SE and skimming Northern counties, nothing major but isobars tightening to produce some windy weather for an hour or so as they transits fairly quickly .

    ECM picking up an area of LP crossing Northern counties and bringing a windy spell to parts of Ulster and North Leinster for a few hours overnight Weds into early Thurs morning. Maybe windy enough to give a yellow warning for a short time in Donegal.








  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    UKMO turned up a stormy picture for later Fri into Sat morning, GFS is on it, ICON and ARPEGE look to be following suit ( a bit to go as ARPEGE just goes out to +114 hrs in the higher Res, ECM 0Z didn't have it , will be interesting to see what it shows when the 12Z comes out soon. Fast moving system on the current runs aided by a fast Jet. Have seen many twists and turns in the charts over the last few days, will see where this one goes.










  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM showing it now also, moving like the clappers being steered by the fast Jet, tracking more East than the others, long way to go though as usual before any clear idea of strength and final track. Initially maybe as low as 975hPa as it approaches Scotland on a sprint from Iceland and filling thereafter.

    Low temperatures and feeling raw in the wind. Could get some wintry showers from the along the N,NW, NE perhaps if it pulls in enough cold air with it








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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    ECM keeps it very windy this weekend, particularly on Saturday with possibly a severe wind chill to go along with it.




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Looking very cold in parts of Munster tomorrow morning, Kerry especially with fog forecast, could look spectacular in the morning with the place glistening after the fog. Up early for a few pics 😀








  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    After a very dry November up to this point it will turn more unsettled from Friday with rain or showers along with strong winds. The rain/showers may turn wintry in places particularly over high ground from Friday evening and into Saturday with a mixture of rain, sleet and possibly wet snow.




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    UKMO churning out some very extreme charts now for a number of runs, not going to say it is going to be as strong as currently shown but something is afoot.

    ICON has been the weakest of the bunch so far but a bit stronger on the latest run, GFS a bit less strong on the latest run, would think that the ECM is about average of the bunch now.















  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    I see the winds are shifting ever further East on each run so by the time it happens it will probably be blizzards in Scotland and blustery showers with 90kph gusts in Ireland.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Scotland and parts of North-eastern England could see some fairly significant snowfall over the weekend, a bit like last winter where Scotland and NE England were in the cold sectors most of the time and resulted in plenty of snow.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    GFS has moved a bit further East but the ECM moved more West the last two runs centering the winds over Ireland, ICON was very much on the East but a bit more centered over Ireland on the last run. Very fast moving system, there hasn't been too much deviation in tracks over the last few runs, well no wild shift anyway but yes would think it could eventually track a bit further East. Time will tell.



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