Autumn 2021 - General Discussion

Dazler97 · 25-09-2021 3:49pm

Turning colder from tomorrow evening and may be the first time your heating will be on, I know it will be my first time, temperatures Monday morning could be 6 or 7c in spots

Billcarson · 25-09-2021 4:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117937802#Comment_117937802

You like wet stormy winters. I'm surprised you don't remember winter 06/07.

Gonzo · 25-09-2021 4:43pm

22C here at Dunshaughlin and warm sunshine. We will be lucky to scrape 10C on Monday. Tomorrow will still be mild but it will be a transitional day from mild in the morning to cold and wet by the evening.

Supercell · 25-09-2021 4:52pm

Yep looks like we are on the brink of kissing summers last vestiges goodbye for another year. Another lovely day today though clouded over a bit for now here, still warm for the time of year @ 19.2C

Please jebus hold off the rain at least next Sunday week morning (marathon in Belfast).

Billcarson · 25-09-2021 7:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117937782#Comment_117937782

While teleconnections play their part i believe in trends and patterns. I kept banging on last winter that we haven't had a proper cold spell in the second half of Jan in decades . Is that coincidence or a trend? A trend imo. Of course it could be said our climate is warming anyway and that's the bigger trend overall of course.

sryanbruen · 25-09-2021 10:35pm

I looked through the Phoenix Park data since 1855-56 and analysed Winter mean temperatures along with the Septembers that preceded those and this is what I found. Firstly, here's the graph of all the data although admittedly it is a bit messy and all over the place so hardly that helpful! Apologies again if quality is poor too, not sure what is with new Boards and posting graphs for me! The years 1959-60 and 1960-61 are not available.

Phoenix Park September mean temperature versus Winter mean temperature.png

Secondly, the average temperatures to keep in mind for September and Winter (DJF) are 13.4C and 5.1C respectively - these are 1981-2010 averages. When I combine the top 25 warmest Septembers at Phoenix Park, I get a following winter mean temperature of 5.4C which is slightly above the modern average. Out of those, there were 5 winters that had 4.1C or lower (at least -1C below 81-10 average). Another 2 contained at least one notable colder than average month but the winter as a whole was masked by the other month(s) being greatly milder.

Conversely, if I combine the top 25 coolest Septembers at Phoenix Park, I get a following winter mean temperature of 4.8C which is slightly below the modern average to the same extent as winters following the warmest Septembers are slightly above the modern average. Using older averages, this 4.8C mean temperature would be around average whilst the 5.4C would be even more greatly above average. Out of the winters following the coolest Septembers, there were 5 winters that had 4.1C or lower just like those following the warmest Septembers. However, there were no additional winters that contained at least one notable colder than average month whilst the winter as a whole was masked by other periods being greatly milder.

One last thing I tried was all the 'close to average Septembers' where the mean temperature is within half a degree (-0.5/0.5) of average whether below or above. The mean temperature for the winters following these Septembers I get is 5.0C which is basically average for a modern winter, slightly above for older averages. So 'close to average Septembers' are not biased to mild or cold winters following them. There are some notably very cold winters in this sample space such as 2009-10 and 1946-47 but equally there are some exceptional mild ones too such as 1997-98 and 1989-90.

I had decided on Phoenix Park for this analysis as whilst it does have UHI, its long-term record cannot be understated and can be useful for analysis such as this.

compsys · 25-09-2021 10:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117935908#Comment_117935908

Thanks as always sryanbruen.

But I was wondering if we've ever had places that had a colder April than March AND a warmer September than August in the same year?

sryanbruen · 25-09-2021 10:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117939694#Comment_117939694

Apologies, had a feeling you were referring to that but wasn't sure. Out of the years named with September being warmer than the preceding August, no it has not happened before combined with April being colder than the preceding March. 2021 is pretty unique in that regard.

EDIT: However, for the Central England region, if that were to happen, it would join 1750 which also had this unusual occurrence of events but March 1750 was exceptionally mild rather than April being particularly cold.

Oneiric 3 · 26-09-2021 12:32am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117939624#Comment_117939624

Very interesting Syran! I suppose when we see slight correlations either way we also have to consider that much of this could be just noise as well.

One pet theory I have (and I have never actually looked into it with the stats) is that if we see a good amount of frost in October that the following winter will be largely frost free. I don't know why I hold that view but it seems more instinctive than learned. Might actually take a look at the stats on this sometime and maybe prove myself wrong!

Billcarson · 26-09-2021 1:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117939624#Comment_117939624

Good work sryan. Perhaps there is some correlation regarding warm Septembers taking the years altogether not much but some. My main thinking on it is more along the lines of Septembers in the last 25 yrs or so.

compsys · 26-09-2021 1:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117939716#Comment_117939716

Thanks as always. Follow you on Twitter also. Love your stats and info. So informative.

Billcarson · 26-09-2021 1:14am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940108#Comment_117940108

Oct 2018 for example was fairly frosty if I remember and I think Dublin Airport recorded its coldest oct night on record that yr. The following winter was very forgettable.

There was some harsh frosts at the end of Oct 08 and 10.

Billcarson · 26-09-2021 1:33am

The main warm Septembers of the last 25yrs off the top of my head are 98,01 ,06,11 ,16 and of course now 21.

Hairypoppins · 26-09-2021 10:28am

Yet another warm sunny start to the day here in my part of the world, probably the last one for some time unfortunately

pad199207 · 26-09-2021 10:31am

Bright breezy morning in Kildare

Oscar Bravo · 26-09-2021 10:31am

A dart wet morning here in Castlebar with heavy squally rain.

acequion · 26-09-2021 11:00am

A horrible morning here in Tralee. Our lovely weather seems to be coming to an end 😔 But we really can't complain, it's been gorgeous. For me it was the perfect blend of summer and autumn. Mild and balmy. Perfect for my garden which is still full of life and colour, perfect for country walks and blackberry picking and perfect for us ladies to get a last wear out of the summer dresses and sandals.😀

We will miss you, lovely weather.

sryanbruen · 26-09-2021 11:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117940194#Comment_117940194

Yes, none of the cold winters following the top 25 warmest Septembers occurred since 1990 or even those additional few with at least one notable colder than average month. All of them were before then. In fact, the years in the top 25 from this century are 2016, 2011, 2006, 2005, 2004 and 2003 (2014 in the top 30 as well). Mild winters followed all of them (2016-17, 2011-12 and 2006-07 all among mildest on record) except 2005 which was average but exceptionally dry.

Billcarson · 26-09-2021 2:56pm

Feels weird that the transition from summer to Autumn is effectively taking place this evening.

pad199207 · 26-09-2021 2:57pm

Increasingly windy now in Kildare but still waiting on the arrival of the rain

Billcarson · 26-09-2021 3:03pm

The dividing line between summer and autumn......

Supercell · 26-09-2021 4:29pm

Summer trying to hold on in Leinster -

Danno · 26-09-2021 4:50pm

Hello Autumn, over 5c drop now in South Laois. Currently 12.8c!

The Silver Branch · 26-09-2021 5:12pm

I'm not sold on the warm September over the last 25 years meaning a mild winter.

For one main reason. Since winter 1990/91, 30 years ago, the vast majority of winters have been mild. I'm sure the same case could be made for a warm July, August, October being followed by a mild winter, we've had so many mild winters in that period.

As for today marking some sort of watershed, yes it's pretty certain we won't hit 22/23c again. However, having a few days in mid October being like a summers day at 17-20C, that's a 50/50 probability. We often get a few days or a week of days like that in October. Again if it turned to Spring on 26th March you wouldn't rule out snow in April. I think, sryan will confirm, April 1989 was colder than January 1989 in some Met Stations. To conclude, there's no reason we won't throw off our jumpers on a calm October 20c day.

Oscar Bravo · 26-09-2021 5:13pm

Suns out here in Castlebar behind the front. A bit cooler,nothing major. Not a bad evening now

Gonzo · 26-09-2021 5:30pm

Bye bye Summer 2021, you will be missed. Rain starting now in Dunshaughlin and temperature already down to 16C from 20C just 2 hours ago. Temperature will likely drop a few more degrees over next 1 to 2 hours.

sryanbruen · 26-09-2021 5:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117942097#Comment_117942097

Correct, April 1989 was almost 2C colder than January 1989 at Moore Park.

The Silver Branch · 26-09-2021 6:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117942194#Comment_117942194

Thanks as always sryan.

The Silver Branch · 26-09-2021 6:14pm

The only thing predictable about our weather is it's unpredictability 🙂

Do ye remember pre Ophelia in mid October 2017 the Sunday evening before it was 20C until near midnight in a balmy southerly as the 'hurricane' approached.

Except i think it's becoming very clear we're recording new warm temperature records more frequently. Warming is taking place.

Gonzo · 26-09-2021 6:27pm

temperature now dropped to 12C here in Meath, a drop of 8C in a few hours. Still raining here but not as heavy as earlier.

Goldfinch8 · 26-09-2021 11:55pm

Certainly a fresher feel to the air after that cold front passed through today.

The clearing skies allowed for a nice splash of colour to show on this September evening in this part of Co. Mayo.

Pontoon, Co Mayo earlier this eve.

Below. River Moy, Foxford

Rock Lesnar · 27-09-2021 11:05am

12.1mm from yesterdays rain here in meath, nice morning today, breezy and very sunny, temperature a lot cooler to

Gonzo · 27-09-2021 12:04pm

A sunny morning here in Meath but noticeably cooler. Autumn is definitely here now and will make it's progress into much of northern and central Europe over the next few days. Tuesday night/Wednesday morning could see a touch of grass frost in places with temperatures possibly getting down to 2 or 3C in places if skies clear.

Amadan Dubh · 27-09-2021 2:18pm

This morning started much fresher and cooler, which was of course more pleasant for me. Just out at lunch there and it seems to have warmed up but there's definitely a freshness in the breeze which takes the heat out of the day. Finally, more pleasant temperatures signifying that autumn has joined us at last. Bar a few showers yesterday evening, there hasn't been any sign of rain. North Wicklow.

leahyl · 27-09-2021 2:37pm

Had an almighty hail shower in Cork City at lunchtime - had to seek shelter. In the sunshine then it was actually quite warm. However, can notice the difference in night time temperature since last night - had the heating on for a bit.

Gonzo · 27-09-2021 2:52pm

Got caught out in an intense shower and a few very loud rumbles of thunder and a flash of lightning with it. Lots of surface water on roads and footpaths.

The Silver Branch · 27-09-2021 3:00pm

I miss the summery weather. This is our usual cool, blustery, showery weather, I can't find anything remotely pleasant in it personally. Cool, showery, north Atlantic derived messiness. You take a jacket off for a few min working outside, in another few minutes you're running for a jacket for a shower. The shower turns into a deluge and you have to stop working. If it was warm summer rain it would be something but the temperature drops 4-5c in the showers.

The contrast from working in shorts and t-shirt at 21c on Saturday is huge.

Oneiric 3 · 27-09-2021 3:00pm

First ping pong hail of the season here about 30 mins ago which started out as a pretty drenching but nice on the skin sun shower.

Billcarson · 27-09-2021 3:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117945769#Comment_117945769

Autumn had to arrive sooner or later. The summer lovers have little to be complaining about imo this year. Decent enough summer overall. Decent June, heatwave in July,poor August but September made up for it.

Only 5 months till the start of spring. .....

The Silver Branch · 27-09-2021 3:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117945821#Comment_117945821

Oh I know. But I'm making the point that in my opinion windy, cool, showery weather isn't as pleasant as warm, calm, dry weather and I wanted it to last as long as possible. Cool, dry autumn weather with frost is fine. When wind and rain enter the equation, I don't see much pleasure.

Good luck with spring starting in 5 months. 27th February is usually pretty unspring like, as is March more often than not.

Billcarson · 27-09-2021 3:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117945839#Comment_117945839

Cool dry weather with frost at night is my favourite weather type during autumn and winter (snow in winter these days i see as a bonus ). Dont mind days like this if they aren't too ,too plentiful.

Spring in 5 months time is more of a mental thing then anything else really. Spring doesn't really get going till April most yrs.

The Silver Branch · 27-09-2021 3:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117945928#Comment_117945928

Each to their own.

There's the daylight thing with Spring too Bill. Like SAD sufferers generally find symptoms easing after Valentine's Day.

The forum goes to show the many and varied tastes in weather conditions! We're all passionate enough about weather or we wouldn't be here!

I don't mind the wind and rain so much once November arrives. Like a good storm. And snowfall. Just got so used to our long summer this year.

Gonzo · 27-09-2021 3:51pm

I miss the dry, warm, sunny and humid weather too. I'm already sick of this Atlantic weather and it's barely here 24 hours! Looks very unsettled over the next 7 to 10 days but hopefully we can get a ridge of high pressure back in October to settle things down again with some hopefully frosty nights and crisp sunny days.

Billcarson · 27-09-2021 4:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117945966#Comment_117945966

I like the fact that we do get different types of weather in this country ( even if overall we are dominated by the Atlantic ). If I lived in a country say near the equater for example with little variation in the seasons apart from dry or wet seasons i would have little interest in the weather .

I love the fact we have seasons and am probably a bit ocd in wanting seasonal weather lol.

sudocremegg · 27-09-2021 4:02pm

Very changeable today. Cool in the shade, light but fresh breeze, warm out in the open at times. Leaves are starting to fall this past week too.

It's an interesting time of the year being able to observe the weather change. Won't be long now and the storms will be arriving 😁

Oneiric 3 · 27-09-2021 4:40pm

The reason I love Autumn (usually... this September aside) is that it is rarely ever too warm or too cold. The nights are drawing in and Atlantic fronts start to get... or should get at least.. more active. I will often look forward to summer, particularly if the late winter & early spring( a period of the year I most hate) is cold and drab, as it often is, but too much heat and esp too much humidity begins to wear me down as the season progresses. The period between the autumn equinox and winter solstice is probably for me the most interesting (for me) of the year for both temperature and daylight length wise.