Gulf stream goes,what's next

K.G.

Reading lately that it appears the gulf stream is decreasing and could be showing signs of stopping.what Would it mean for irish agriculture. This year has had a cold feel to most of this year

listermint

Cold feel ? No tbh haven't really felt it's been cold for most of the year. I am on the coast though.

Lime Tree Farm

I am noticing, for a good few years, that the prevailing wind seems to have changed from SW to NW -

_Brian

I’d accept really really cold winters if we got predictable decent summer weather.

the reports also said that while it’s definitely changed they don’t know if it would stop or just slow down a bit and they don’t know if it might happen in 10 or 200 years or if might happen at all.

we can’t get people to focus on what’s happening right hear and now without them denying the science. So asking them to act on something that might happen is lost, no matter how serious.

magicbastarder

yeah, there's a certain cohort who follow the 'nothing is proven until it actually happens' argument, unfortunately.

it's a pernicious twist on the 'absence of evidence is evidence of absence' mistake.

_Brian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718965#Comment_117718965

I suppose one problem is humans have a relatively short lifespan, we spend so much time focusing on the here and now it’s hard to make space for thinking about things that might/might not happen in 200 years. I’m certainly guilty of that.

that’s where good governance should step in and have plans for the here and now AND the long term. We haven’t one potential party or combination of parties that could do this.

You can’t accept one report either. The stopping of the Gulf Stream isn’t standard climate science. I looked this up a few months back. Although I haven’t read this report yet you tend to find with these reports that the headlines are more clickbaitey than the report. It’s certainly not getting colder in Ireland than the past. Winters are warming up.

_Brian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117719011#Comment_117719011

Yea.

my understanding of current climate change is we here will see more and more wet windy stormy weather with warmer wetter winters cooler wetter summers while also seeing short extremes of both

we wouldn’t see artic style winters until the Gulf Stream weakens significantly or stops and we loose it’s protection

_Brian

ive seen this report commented on a few places.

The common stance is we need to now take radical action now, major changes to society and how we live our lives to try prevent something that might or might not happen, amd if it might it might be in 20 or 200 years, amd if we take the radical action it might happen anyway.

Its a hard premise to ask people to make radical changes on.

_Brian

On a side note.

I see more and more people I interact with saying they aren’t listening to anything only local news any more. Finding the wider news both scary and too depressing, or just impossible to comprehend.

Are they right??

Should the small people just live the best short life we have and leave the top level stuff to those elected and paid to deal with it.

PokeHerKing

I for one look forward to winter ice skating/hockey.

touts

If the gulf stream stops we'll probably end up with a climate like Newfoundland. Not much agriculture in Newfoundland.

The J Stands for Jay

Look at a globe and see how far north we are compared to North America. I lived just outside New York for a while. Neighbours had a swimming pool. They also had a snow mobile that they could use on the street in winter. The amount of snow that fell there would destroy Ireland. Now realise that New York is further south than Ireland. Would we enjoy a Newfoundland climate?

moneyheer

Sure aren't we on the same latitude as Moscow. That woulf give you an ifea of what to expect if it got colder.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117719168#Comment_117719168

Yes I very much would. Better winters than Ireland and similar summers.

_Brian

With our hurling surely ice hockey would become a GAA sport, it’s where it originated from.

farawaygrass

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117719168#Comment_117719168

Rome is more northern than New York. Couldn’t believe it when I was told that. I kind of assumed New York was much the same latitude as Ireland.

blue5000

There's a lad in the eco village across the road here trying to sell grape vines for €50 each, maybe he's right and all the other experts are wrong. This climate change stuff has me confused. It's a bit like the Dire Straits song with the line 'Two men say they're Jesus, one of 'em must be wrong'.

Birdnuts

We are actually currently in an "interglacial" for the past 8k years - for most of the last 2.5 million years this part of the world has been in various ice ages. My point being that "climate change" is natural and has been happening since the dawn of time. Having said that human activity is certainly changing the climate in some regions - mostly by deforestation in the likes of Brazil and drainage/destruction of wetlands elsewhere. These areas will see an ongoing rapid deteriation in rainfall patterns, depletion of rivers, more droughts and hotter temps.

Easten

If the gulf stream stopped then it would make Ireland uninhabitable. One winter would cover the place with cold hard Ice that may not thaw by Mid May. A few years of that and you would have parts completely in Ice all year round.

My own opinion is that a gulf stream shutdown would trigger another Ice age in Northern Europe which could happen over a few decades and not thousands of years.

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117719106#Comment_117719106

Kinda right.

There's always been some emergency in every generation on this planet.

Fact is this one has never had it as good.

Imagine if you were alive or (dying) during the Irish famine or sent over the top in the Somme in WW1.

Reading posts on sm of dads going into self inflicted depression from news reports of climate change.

Well buckle up folks now that the pressure has been applied those news reports are going to be a weekly thing.

There's no point putting depression on yourself bar you're using sm to get that message out there about climate change and you know exactly what you're doing.

Anyway all you can do is end your life cos you're a drain on the planet. No I don't mean that in the slightest but that's the message you'll put on yourself if you listen to what is being broadcast now 24/7.

All you can realistically do is live your life well. Do no harm. Reduce your carbon footprint if you want but don't beat yourself up about it. But try to make an effort.

And remember cows are not the enemy. 🤪

The conspiracist in me nearly kinda thinks it's a perfectly planned set of events these past few years and the rationale being to get people focused on a bigger picture.

Someone hit me on the head with a shovel tho if the global new society reckons anyone over seventy is a drain on society and needs to take a pill to help climate change..

But anyway back on topic. It does look like the gulf stream is slowing down a bit.

But it's not the end of the world. It's really not.

magicbastarder

"There's always been some emergency in every generation on this planet."

citation required.

Markus Antonius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718965#Comment_117718965

What do you mean by this exactly? No evidence does not mean there is nothing happening?

Are you looking for things to be fearful of? It's just more of the usual hysteria.

magicbastarder

"No evidence does not mean there is nothing happening?"

i don't know if you're questioning this, or stating this?

to be clear, my concern is that if people are waiting till anthropogenic climate change is absolutely irrefutable, it will be a decade (or several) too late to do anything about it. if climate change is real (which i trust the scientists on) but proof is required for action - yes, i'm fearful.

Markus Antonius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117722049#Comment_117722049

Too late for what? This all sounds too apocalyptic for me

fits

I genuinely cannot think much about it. Did some climate change studies 20 years ago and everything predicted then is happening and more. Ireland not really seeing the effects yet as much as other countries because our climate is so influenced by Atlantic.

We learned about risks of climate change and the theory,melting ice caps could cut the gulf stream off from ireland in national school

With the obvious infersion it would be plunging us into candian style weather (we are at same level on globe as them)

wrangler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117721948#Comment_117721948

Good synopsis

There won't be enough social responsibility to take any action, OK ireland will do their usual..ie..take EU rules and add a few of their own and be EU goody goodies while everywhere else will ignore them

Don't know if I'd hit myself on the head with a shovel but I should be glad to be the age I am if the forecasts are true....future is indeed bleak

893bet

Tax will fix it. And it’s coming.

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117719168#Comment_117719168

Woukd it be more likely that we’d experience a pacific north west British Columbia type climate. We are also roughly at the same latitude as Vancouver. Which is not as harsh a climate as the Newfoundland one . It’s hard to see no matter what happens how the Atlantic will not have a major influence on our weather. It does seem as a poster mentioned above that our weather comes more from the North west these days. The “soft wet day” south west Gulf Stream type weather does seem to occur a lot less. It’s usually cold and windy with belts of showers with a mixture of high pressure bringing fine weather for a few weeks.

Comparisons with Moscow are futile. Moscow is in the centre of a massive continent thousands of miles from any oceanic influence.

The J Stands for Jay

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117732069#Comment_117732069

You can probably tell my analysis is based on little more than a glance at a globe. We'll miss the soft wet days, but there's probably too many factors at play for us to make an uneducated guess at what we'll get instead.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117730729#Comment_117730729

I am not so sure unless we start to put serious levies on Chinese tat and Asian and Australian imports.

China is still opening coal burning power stations, it dose not expect to see a reduction in coal usage until 2O26. That another way of saying it will not reach peak coal usage until 2026. That means it will be a other 10+ years before China probably stars to reduce its carbon footprint. Carbon footprint of individual Chinese citizens is now higher than EU citizens and is fact approaching US citizen carbon footprint.

Australia another big offender intends to carry out no additional actions to mitigate against climate change. Another good piece from Colm McCarthy on the back of last week's rag. Unless there is a technical solution found I cannot see any action mitigating the present rise in temperatures

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117732986#Comment_117732986

It's the way the planet spins has an effect too. The atmospheric jet stream moves from North America across the Atlantic, over Europe, Russia and back over north America.

So it's always a large factor bringing weather from the Atlantic over us. Silk cut is 100% on the British Colombia comparison over the newfoundland or even Moscow comparison.

Whatever temperature that ocean to the west of us is, is going to affect our weather.

_Brian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117733784#Comment_117733784

Higher sea and air temperatures evaporate more moisture into the the air above the Atlantic. This gets carried over us to fall as more rain than we’ve had before.

whisky_galore

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117719107#Comment_117719107

Fcuk snow and sliding all over the road and frozen pipes. 1000 x fcuk that.

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117733800#Comment_117733800

There's been a cold pool in the Atlantic these past few years. Could be ice melt from Canada and Greenland.

One thing you'd notice is chance of snow coming in from the northwest and west during winter. 15, 20 years ago that was a rarity from that direction.

But the higher the temperature gradient between areas and if those areas are near each other the stronger the winds, the stronger the storms.

Birdnuts

Why aren't they putting big taxes on all agri imports from that Toxic regime in Brazil?? I suppose its easier to kick the little people on the ground here🤬

_Brian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117734932#Comment_117734932

It’s about reciprocal trade.

Europe (the Germans and French) get to send over cars so we have to take stuff in return. Globally there should be boycotting of countries allowing deforestation

MadYaker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718945#Comment_117718945

This pretty much my opinion on the whole climate change thing. It's not a solvable problem, I just hope I'm no longer around when those chickens come home to roost.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117718945#Comment_117718945

It would be crippling cold. We have no infrastructure for such continuously cold winters

Suckler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117735255#Comment_117735255

There was a post earlier say something along the lines of "it won't be the end of the world"; your post is spot on as to why it would/could be the "end of our world" as we know it.

Crippling cold is one thing as you mentioned. After that, the melt water & flood water would render most farms useless. I know in our area, only the very best of ground can handle a wet year without too much affect on the following year. An extended wet spring & summer is telling in our place; if it was every year, I may hand it over to the wildlife.

Edit: And yes some might say the "crippling cold" we are talking about is extreme etc. but even wetter or extended wet periods coupled with rising sea/rivers/lakes etc. would render a lot of places useless. We may get digging dikes like the Dutch.

_Brian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117735339#Comment_117735339

We’ve all been seeing the climate shift over time, I’m not 50 and can see it.

weve gone from a summer where a family could make hay with peg rakes and forks, field at a time to a summer where it’s often hard to get 3 consecutive days to make and wrap a bit of silage.

winters where there would have been a 2 -3 inch snow covering lasting a week being a regular occurrence. Now we have a snow fall occasionally and it’s gone in a few days. I’d say we haven’t had sufficient dry snow to make a snowman in 6 years.

a sudden major change in the Gulf Stream would bring much more sudden severe changes and like you say, marginal farms would likely become impossible to farm intensively

yosemitesam1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117735236#Comment_117735236

I think the best thing to do is plough on with fossil fuels. Human ingenuity will solve whatever problems a changing climate MIGHT throw at us much better than condemming the common person to ever higher taxes and stricter regulations that will only make the rich richer and the average person poor.

Cleaning up the likes of particulate emissions though is certainly worthwhile.

Easten

Kinda funny how folks talk from both sides of the mouth. They are giving out about deforestation of the Amazon rainforest, the Chinese using Coal for electric yet they are happy to buy Weanling crunch/ Dairy nuts etc full of Soya and Maize from the deforested lands while tapping away on the Chinese made iphone.

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117738906#Comment_117738906

If the Eu allowed gmo soya/corn to be grown in Europe, their would be no need for south american imports, its okay to use gmo feed in Europe your just not allowed to sow it, was making a big effort here to cut back on imported feed and have been getting maize contract grown, the past 2 years and now thats a non-runner from next year with the plastic ban....

wrangler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117738906#Comment_117738906

No child is more that a bike ride from a GAA club, yet they're driven there and back and the parents drive home in between.

Also driven to protests about the older generation allowing climate change also while tapping away at their chinese Iphones.

Climate change will be like civid, no personal responsibility so the only alternative is tax increase.

I have to say I'll opt to pay the increased taxes, unlikely to change lifestyle here, I'm sure I won't be alone on this.

OH goes mad when I throw everything into the one bin

Danzy

The Western world is probably going to manage a reduction but If China alone has an elevation to a living standard like the West, it will need the resources of several new planet earths. That's not possible.

Only chance is a method of carbon extraction.

Reduction will likely be theoretical globally.

Dickie10

Actually the type of ocean current flowing past a particular continent has a huge influence on their climate, i just taught this to second years a few months ago. I think theres a warm ocean current coming down from Alaska past the Canadian west coast that brings rain and moisture, theres a cold current flows up from south America as far as LA and that brings dry conditions. The place this is most stark is the east coast of south Africa and the west coast. If you go on Google Earth you can see it, both same latitudes , both on the coast of the same land area, but on the west coast of sothern Africa is a cold current and that leaves you with the Kalahari desert and pure desert conditions in most of Namibia contrast that to the east coast of southern Africa and you have a warm ocean current, that leaves you with Mozambique , Durban all green , moist and vegetative.

You can see the same thing play out in mid latitudes around the world

wrangler

This was on my facebook this morning

https://scontent.fdub4-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/232702345_10220308250402702_6756260112329928943_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&ccb=1-4&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=Mavkq2D4mi0AX-0B2Lv&_nc_ht=scontent.fdub4-1.fna&oh=e8348ee060654e3ab2e8fc024e81a374&oe=613BE205

K.G.

Is there any point in talking about climate change and carbon reduction because to make any material change would mean a massive depression in the world economy and change s to people's lifestyle.if you want to make a real difference you would need to at least double or treble the cost of energy making most economic proposition s unviable

zom

"what Would it mean for irish agriculture"

Biggest treat to Irish agriculture are actually greenhouse gas emission regulations. Irish farmers will be forced to reduce or stop completely beef farming long before Gulf Stream disappear. Good we have Google, Amazon and Facebook to feed us now and even with no agriculture or tourism we will hopefully survive until next climate change...