Russia - threadbanned users in OP

macraignil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121959460#Comment_121959460

It's really bizarre you think negotiating with putin who has broken previous peace agreements with Ukraine and shown no interest in peace would yield anything so I must assume you have some love for him.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121959460#Comment_121959460

Was there "no diplomacy"? None whatsoever? Statement of fact without foundation.

What does this supposed negotiation in 2022 look like? Does Ukraine end up in NATO? Yes or no? Do you think Russia in 2022 accepts that and why?

So what's to stop Russia breaking the agreement again, and coming back in 2024? Given Russia has broken agreements with Ukraine, Moldova and in Chechnya. In Chechnya, it was just an excuse for a truce to re-arm and return.

Given that, if you think Ukraine hasn't received enough Western backing while actually at war with Russia, how much backing would it have received under a 'peace' with Russia? A peace that Russia could be expected to break when convenient.

zv2

Nasty

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1774227389825855739

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121959375#Comment_121959375

in the very early days of this war when Germany was sending helmets and gloves the thinking/hope was that this will be over quick. Just like crimea 8 years perviously. Business as usual would return after a few months of sanctions recriminations etc.

The fact that the Russian army was so incompetent and the Ukrainians were so determined to fight was not factored in and was an economic and moral disaster for countries like Germany.

Russia would be a far more acceptable to country to deal with if it had quickly annexed Ukraine and the population was relatively compliant about it.

What has actually transpired has been a disaster. Especially for those with cosy sweet deals with Russia.

The fact that it was unforeseen by many is startling. Anyone who has studied history at leaving cert secondary school level will be aware of the consequences and devastating nature of modern war on the European continent no matter how small. It is absolutely never quick and clean.

And now Europe is faced with the spectre of at least a partial war economy for a sustained period. And maybe worse.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121959375#Comment_121959375

What?

Putin invaded Ukraine. He broke treaties to do that. He will break them again.

Putin has been bombing Ukraine 24/7 since Feb 24th 2022. "Peace" is not and has never been on the table. The Ukrainians only have a choice of surrender (occupation) or fighting (survival). That's it.

At some point, when war doesn't suit Putin, it's "expected" there could be some sort of settlement (that he could break at any time). It has not reached that point yet.

pummice

A good day for Ukraine

https://twitter.com/ChallengerInUA/status/1774458203767509097/photo/1

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121958823#Comment_121958823

I like to ask people who promote the idea that Ukraine (or in this case, for some reason, the US) should push for peace. Just so I can understand you, and to avoid any misunderstandings or hot takes, can you please set out what, in your view is the answer to the following three questions:

1. What peace terms would have been achieved if Ukraine and Russia had negotiated an agreement at the end of 2022?
2. Where would we be now, in the sense of would the sides have stuck to it, would normal relations be restored between the countries, would the border areas be demilitarised and the armies demobbed etc?
3. What peace terms would be achieveable if Ukraine and Russia were to negotiate an agreement right now?

In anticipation of you dissappearing again for a few weeks and me not getting an answer, my own view is that:

1. no terms would be agreeable because both sides want Donbas, Crimea, Kherson and Zhaporzhizia.

2. Any deal would fall apart unless one side or the other gave up on this territory (and, more importantly, the people who live there) and

3. the same as 1.

TLDR, negotiating with Putin was futile then, and futile now.

flutered

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121958831#Comment_121958831

putin bluffed washington and berlin as regards nuclear weapons, they withdrew supplies, ukraine was left to hang and dry

flutered

sachs is a russian troll

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121960789#Comment_121960789

Russia (or should I say Putin) want Kyiv and Odessa in addition to the territories you mention. These would be regarded as two very integral cities of Ruskiy mir. The idea of a Ukrainian flag flying above both right now must utterly gall Putin.

I suspect that Putin has a theory of victory, so it would be impossible to have meaningful negotiations with him where each side would feel like they had got something out of it. He would accept total surrender, but nothing whereby Ukraine could turn westward while still containing any territory he considers as being historically Russian.

flutered

a bit of good news for ukraine, especially the anti missile batterys

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/france-to-provide-armoured-vehicles-missiles-to-ukraine/ar-BB1kP1il

AngeloArgue

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121960789#Comment_121960789

Russia pretty much demanded that Ukraine become a Belarus style vassal state tied economically, militarily, and culturally to Russia forever, And to concede vast areas of territory over to Russia.

The Ukrainians listened to the Russians in Istanbul and rejected their demands.

Could the Ukrainians have agreed to Russian the demands?

Yes, but then they would cease to exist as a distinct independent country that has a right to self determination.

As for negotiations if they were to happen now?

I think it would be hard to stomach for Ukraine to sit down and effectively surrender to a country that cold bloodedly murdered so many of it's people. But ultimately that is for them to decide.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121958823#Comment_121958823

A load of counterfactual bollox imo. The one here with the clearest sunk cost delusion is Putin, who has kept on going, throwing loads of Russian and Ukrainian bodies on the fire after his original plan failed. Well, I suppose that is a benefit of being an absolute ruler answerable to noone.

Ukraine's offensive failed, but they won't get back more territory they have had stolen or free people there without making the attempt. A few other reasons for the failure are tardiness and caution of the Western countries supplying them (allowed Russia ample time to build those minefields), restrictions placed on weapons that are supplied to Ukraine and how they can be used (no longer range missiles supplied from the US to Ukraine at all I think, Western countries demand Ukraine never attack targets in Russia with their weapons).

The main reason there is any hope at all remaining for Russia to win something at the moment IMO is that the US political system is dysfunctional. New US materiel to Ukraine is stalled for 3 months now so far, it is likely stopped until the next election there and maybe indefinitely depending on the outcome. Likely Ukraine has had to get much more cautious with resources well before that (mid last year, around time of offensive) as clouds were gathering over the longevity of US support by then.

We saw this US chaos and political dysfunction manifest during Covid, now we see it again during war in Ukraine.

The reality is there are some MAGA/Trump people on the right of US politics engineering circumstances to cripple aid to Ukraine, Russia making a bit of progress now as a result of that (still at an horrific cost) and then you have wormtongue-like fellow travellers (pro Russia types whose tweets you love quoting/posting) piping up that they knew Ukraine never had a chance and should have chased a will o the wisp of "peace" with Russia that was never on the table unless they will kow-tow completely.

It is quite ridiculous really. It's like a thief tries to break into a house, he can't get past the locks on the door and is held up…Someone inside tries to call the police. Then a bunch of accomplices/pals cut the phone line + block the road, then they also have the gall to nod wisely and wag a finger at the occupants…oh you should let the robbers take it all right at the start, because there was never a chance!

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121959375#Comment_121959375

That time in Russian band camp when Putin declared energy war on Europe and Russian propaganda spread clips of Europe freezing and economies collapsing

A war that Russia not only lost destroying their gas industry but now leading to a collapse in oil based exports both in volume and measured in any currency that’s usable

You have really strange narratives over last few pages that gloss over what actually happened, one could say a form of gaslighting, heh there’s a pun in there

RoyalCelt

Of course the US knew the counter attack would "fail". Bear in mind they did recapture more territory then Russia has seen then forfar less losses but I think at a minimum Ukraine would have wanted to Putin Tokmak within firing range.

The US did have a good idea though because they knew they'd given Ukraine **** all. If they'd given a thousand Bradley's and 5 more patriot systems yeah maybe Ukraine would have had a better chance but they didn't.

The US did make a good point though. Ukraine might have been better off focusing everything on the south. Russia has been all out attack through the shittiest months of the year since. I would love if Ukraine would switch to attack in the south this summer and try push the line down a few more KM.

Dick phelan

It's not just about Ukraine ceeding territory to Russia. Russia does not except a true independent Ukraine in any form, They would demand a puppet government in Ukraine which is not allowed to form any kind of economic or security alliance without Russian agreement, Ukraine would be forced to be tied and dependant on Russia economically. Ukraine would end up being nothing more than what Hong Kong is to China.

pcardin

meanwhile, in ze internet world…

https://youtube.com/shorts/MxWofBsOhYQ?si=L0krGDDL0E92JTyy

Timberrrrrrrr

More Russian armour reduced to scrap metal.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1774801904557494665?t=32M3S4fGWoHx8y8UeqhMSA&s=19

zv2

Dramatic stuff from Belgorod

https://twitter.com/raging545/status/1774826701802836467

briany

Ukraine are also digging large defensive networks to stymie any Russian attempt at a breakthrough.

https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-ukraines-building-defenses-like-russia-used-to-stop-them-2024-3#:~:text=Digging%20Defenses&text=With%20a%20focus%20on%20defense,for%20soldiers%20to%20hide%20in.

Without aerial superiority, it's hard to see either side making significant moves.

Big Ears

One issue that seems to be relevant to this war, but doesn't get discussed very much is Russian mortgage rates.

Currently they're running at 16%, and have been so since December last year, had been a couple of percentage points below since Sept/Oct time.

Now currently that's not causing many problems for the average Russian, as most people are availing of the governments preferential mortgage scheme, where they subsidise mortgages on certain types of properties, and instead the individual is paying a rate of around 6-8%.

The scheme is due to expire in July, however the Russian government has currently got a problem. These mortgages are costing them an absolute fortune, as they subsidise people's payments......however the alternative of ending the scheme would prove extremely unpopular among the Russian Middle class. A lot of whom are working for the Russian government in the army/police.

The pain of this would only be multiplied were attacks on refineries/oil production to continue to escalate, and inflation stay at a high rate.

Perhaps things stabilise, and nothing happens, but issue like this are what could eventually turn the Russian public against the war.

victor8600

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/30/7448886/

The production of Taurus missiles has stopped because the German government would not order any.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121963122#Comment_121963122

Finance. Stopping Russia's oil production/distribution stops their ability to pay for the war.

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121963276#Comment_121963276

And the reasons given in the article are precisely why the US continued to buy equipment it does not need, despite the political liabilities, or why Japan produces equipment at such a slow but expensive per unit rate. Keeps the production lines open and the skills employed.

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121963930#Comment_121963930

Love this one…

Big stick ideology, big stick diplomacy, big stick philosophy, or big stick policy refers to an aphorism often said by the 26th president of the United States, Theodore Roosevelt; "speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far"

threeball

The airline industry in Russia seems to be plodding along despite expectations that they'd have to ground their fleets. Is it probable that Airbus and Boeing are ensuring parts are getting there as a crash would be a PR disaster, especially for Boeing who are in a very perilous position at the moment.

Hoop66

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121964396#Comment_121964396

Possibly because the state has "bought" all airlines operating in Russia.

RedXIV

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121964396#Comment_121964396

The bigger question would be……would you get on one of those planes? :D

vswr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121964396#Comment_121964396

Parts going via Gabon…. with no sanctions.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121964396#Comment_121964396

Somehow I doubt that. The Russians have a less than stellar safety record in aviation, and if they crash a Boeing or Airbus due to maintainence the blame will squarely be on the Russians themselves.

Domestic aviation is a bit of a nessesity for the Russians. Large swaiths of the country are extreemly difficult / time-consuming / damn-near-impossible to reach via road. Your 2 options are often rail or air and they may have to give up on the air option eventually. They had grounded some of their Boeings for parts, but that will only go so far.