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June 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 30-05-2021 2:50am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,210 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, the mean temperature at five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon), average 1981-2010 was 13.6 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, the highest temperature reported at any of the 25 regular reporting locations of met.ie as shown in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website.

    3. Predict the MIN, the lowest temperature reported at any of the 25 regular reporting locations of met.ie as shown in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website.

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall) as a percentage of normal June amounts, from the average of eleven locations (the same five as in part 1 above, plus Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, Cork, and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine hours) as a percentage of normal June amounts (which are around 5-6 hours a day). This is verified against reports from six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon, Valentia).

    6. BONUS _ After consulting with some of you on the May thread, I've decided to go with the "maximum sunshine hours" suggestion of several people, but I won't confine it to one day (the 21st is thought of as being the longest day but in reality there is very little difference in potential sunshine hours all through June, in the north it could be 16 or even 17 hours in clear weather).

    So anyway, the question will be this: how many days in June will see 10 hours or more sunshine at Malin Head, and what will be the maximum duration? Give a date (1 to 30 June) for a superbonus of one or two points.

    NormaL ____ 13.6 __ 26.5 __ 2.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 4 days, 13.0 h (date not scored for NormaL)

    M.T. Cranium _ 14.0 __ 27.1 __ 1.4 __ 105 __ 110 ___ 6 days, 15.5 h (25th)

    =================================

    date superbonus for that sunshine will be based on 2 points for hitting the maximum date, or 1 point for either being one day out on it (not using 31 May or 1 July), or hitting a separate second place date (no margins on that). To be clear only Malin Head sunshine will be used for this, amounts anywhere else will not factor into scoring.

    (deadline 0300h Tuesday 1st of June, usual late penalties apply).

    Anyone entering after 15z 1st cannot score any superbonus points for any June date before 3rd, and same two-day lag until late entries cease to appear.

    Also at my discretion, an amount already known in a late entry situation can be docked up to two of the five available points. The other five points will be based on the number of days. "Ten hours" will be scored by 9.5 hours or more qualifying.

    The climate section of the met.ie website gives the normal June daily sunshine hours at Malin Head as 5.5 hours, with maximum recorded 16.0 hours and average of 2.4 days with zero sunshine.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 24 WesternStorm


    WesternStorm _ 15.0 __ 29.0 __ 2.0 __ 85 __ 120 ___ 8 days, 16.0 h (15th)


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3____ 14.4 __ 25.1 __ 2.6__ 90 __ 110 ___ 7 days, 12.0 h 18th June


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry____ 14.5__ 27.1__ 3.7__ 100__ 115 ___ 5 days, 15.0 h 30th June


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 15.0 ___ 28.0 ___ 2.0 ___ 65 ___ 140 ___ 8 days 14.5 hours 28th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,715 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal ____ 13.9 __ 27.0 __ 1.8 __ 80 __ 105 ___ 6 days, 16.0h 23rd


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  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29____ 14.5 __ 24.0 __ 2.0__ 80 __ 130 ___ 12 days, 15.0 h 24th June


  • Registered Users Posts: 753 ✭✭✭ mr.stonewall


    Mr Stonewall_____14.6___28.6____3.1____81___115___9 days 16.2hrs 10th


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _ 14.5 __ 27.0 __ 2.1 __ 100 __ 110 ___ 5 days, 15.1 h (22nd)

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Malin Head does not publish sunshine data as in Yesterday’s weather page or in the farming reports in the forecast section. May I suggest Belmullet as one of the more northern station that does record sunshine instead?


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,116 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ____ 13.4 __ 25.8 __ 1.8 __ 095 __ 105 ___ 3 days, 12.8h (18th)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 ____ 14.6 __ 27.4 __ 2.7 __ 110 __ 110 ___ 4 days, 15.0 h (26th)


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _ 14.0 __ 27.9 __ 1.4 __ 95 __ 105 ___ 4 days, 13.3 h (24th)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public _ 14.4 __ 28.8 __ 1.8 __ 99 __ 120 ___ 8 days, 16.4h (14th)


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    John mac_ 13.8__ 26.1 __ 1.9 __ 105 __ 103 ___ 7 days, 14.5 h (29th)


  • Registered Users Posts: 153 ✭✭ CirrusBusiness


    CirrusBusiness _ 14.3 __ 27.3 __ 3.6 __ 85 __ 125 __ 9 days, 15.4h (14th) Belmullet


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ____ 14.6 __ 27.8 __ 2.5__ 105 __ 110 ___ 7 days, 15.5 h (14th)


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner____14.2____27.5____2.2____111____91____6d,12h,15th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 958 ✭✭✭ esposito


    Esposito _ 13.9 __ 26.5__ 3.1__ 80 __ 132__ 8 days, 16.2h (22nd)


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,624 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Appledrop___14.8___27.1__2.0__90%__115%__9days__14.7h___13th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,624 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    M.T that's the 13th June. Thanks.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels 14.6 __ 26.0 __ 2.4 __ 101 __ 111___ 5 days, 14.3 h 21st


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ___ 14.5 __ 28.0 __ 2.4 __ 105 __ 105 ___ 4 days, 12.3 h (13th) - Belmullet


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa____ 14.6__ 27.8__ 2.5__ 96__ 124 ___ 6 days, 16.0 h (15th)


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610. 14.9___ 28.7___ 2.3___ 70 ___ 140 ___ 8 days 16.1 hours 24th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 281 ✭✭ eon1208


    13.2 __ 27.5 __ 2.1__ 103 __ 109__ 8 days, 16 hours, 28th.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Gonzo _ 14.7 __ 27.6 __ 2.8 __ 105 __ 116 ___ 4 days, 14.5h (14th)


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭ SleetAndSnow


    SleetAndSnow ____ 14.2__ 27.8 __ 2.4 __ 095___ 110 ___ 4 days, 14.8h (17th)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,210 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Right then, I also found out that Malin Head is no longer reporting sunshine hours, assuming this is going to persist through June, as JPmarn was suggesting earlier, Belmullet is the closest substitute so I will have to score this from their reports, however, if anyone now wants to change their forecast knowing that, you have until end of 3rd to do so and then I will create the table of entries. So you can if possible edit your post or just add that amendment, I won't bother to do so although I suspect Belmullet might have more days above 9.5 hours so will add one to NormaL's forecast.

    No edits on other forecasts (I will have copies of current posting to work from).


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Oak Park reached 21.9 yesterday for openers.
    (Belmullet 0.0 hours sunshine!)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,210 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for June 2021


    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ BONUS


    WesternStorm ____________15.0 _ 29.0 _ 2.0 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 8 d, 16.0 h (15th)

    Kindred Spirit ____________ 15.0 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 065 _ 140 ___ 8 d, 14.5 h (28th)

    Adam240610 _____________14.9 _ 28.7 _ 2.3 _ 070 _ 140 ___ 8 d, 16.1 h (24th)

    Appledrop _______________ 14.8 _ 27.1 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 9 d, 15.3 h (13th)

    Gonzo _________ (-2) _____14.7 _ 27.6 _ 2.8 _ 105 _ 116 ___ 4 d, 14.5 h (14th)

    Mr Stonewall _____________14.6 _ 28.6 _ 3.1 _ 081 _ 115 ___ 9 d, 16.2 h (10th)

    Jpmarn _________________ 14.6 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 7 d, 15.5 h (14th)

    Dacogawa _______________ 14.6 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 096 _ 124 ___ 6 d, 16.0 h (15th)

    Artane2002 ______________14.6 _ 27.4 _ 2.7 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 4 d, 15.0 h (26th)

    200motels _______________14.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.4 _ 101 _ 111 ___ 5 d, 14.3 h (21st)

    Tae laidir ________________14.5 _ 28.0 _ 2.4 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 4 d, 12.3 h (13th)

    Pauldry _________________ 14.5 _ 27.1 _ 3.7 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 5 d, 15.0 h (30th)

    sryanbruen ______________ 14.5 _ 27.0 _ 2.1 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 5 d, 15.1 h (22nd)


    ___ Con Sensus __________ 14.5 _ 27.5 _ 2.3 _ 096 _ 111 __ 6.5 d, 15.0 h (19th)


    Dasa29 _________________ 14.5 _ 24.0 _ 2.0 _ 080 _ 130 ___12 d, 15.0 h (24th)

    Joe Public _______________ 14.4 _ 28.8 _ 1.8 _ 099 _ 120 ___ 8 d, 16.4 h (14th)

    Sunflower3 ______________ 14.4 _ 25.1 _ 2.6 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 7 d, 12.0 h (18th)

    CirrusBusiness ____________14.3 _ 27.3 _ 3.6 _ 085 _ 125 ___ 9 d, 15.4 h (14th)

    SleetAndSnow ___ (-3) ____ 14.2 _ 27.8 _ 2.4 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 4 d, 14.8 h (17th)

    MrSkinner _______________14.2 _ 27.5 _ 2.2 _ 111 _ 091 ___ 6 d, 12.0 h (15th)

    waterways ______________ 14.0 _ 27.9 _ 1.4 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 4 d, 13.3 h (24th)

    M.T. Cranium ____________ 14.0 _ 27.1 _ 1.4 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 6 d, 15.5 h (25th)

    Bsal ___________________ 13.9 _ 27.0 _ 1.8 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 6 d, 16.0 h (23rd)

    Esposito ________________ 13.9 _ 26.5 _ 3.1 _ 080 _ 132 ___ 8 d, 16.2 h (22nd)

    John mac _______________ 13.8 _ 26.1 _ 1.9 _ 105 _ 103 ___ 7 d, 14.5 h (29th)


    ____ NormaL ____________13.6 _ 26.5 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 4 d, 13.0 h ( -- )


    DOCARCH _______________13.4 _ 25.8 _ 1.8 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 3 d, 12.8 h (18th)

    Eon1208 _______ (-1) ____ 13.2 _ 27.5 _ 2.1 _ 103 _ 109 ___ 8 d, 16.0 h (28th)


    For the sunshine bonus, here's the count of each variable ...

    Days (9.5h +) __ Max Hours ________ Dates

    12 _____ 1 ____ 15.5+ _____ 10 ____ 30 _ 1 ___ 21 _ 1

    9 ______3 ____ 15.0-15.4 ___ 6 ____ 29 _ 1 ___ 18 _ 2

    8 ______6 ____ 14.5-14.9 ___ 4 ____ 28 _ 2 ___ 17 _ 1

    7 ______3 ____ 14.0-14.4 ___ 1 ____ 26 _ 1 ___ 15 _ 3

    6 ______4 ____ 13.5-13.9 ___ 0 ____ 25 _ 1 ___ 14 _ 4

    5 ______3 ____ 13.0-13.4 ___ 1 ____ 24 _ 3 ___ 13 _ 2

    4 ______5 ____ 12.5-12.9 ___ 1 ____ 23 _ 1 ___ 10 _ 1

    3 ______1 ____ < 12.5 _____ 3 ____ 22 _ 2


    (Con Sensus takes the median on these, which is why they choose 19th, despite no guesses for that date.

    -- median for 26 forecasts is average of 13th and 14th ranked)


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