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June 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

  • #2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,323 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, the mean temperature at five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon), average 1981-2010 was 13.6 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, the highest temperature reported at any of the 25 regular reporting locations of met.ie as shown in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website.

    3. Predict the MIN, the lowest temperature reported at any of the 25 regular reporting locations of met.ie as shown in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website.

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall) as a percentage of normal June amounts, from the average of eleven locations (the same five as in part 1 above, plus Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, Cork, and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine hours) as a percentage of normal June amounts (which are around 5-6 hours a day). This is verified against reports from six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon, Valentia).

    6. BONUS _ After consulting with some of you on the May thread, I've decided to go with the "maximum sunshine hours" suggestion of several people, but I won't confine it to one day (the 21st is thought of as being the longest day but in reality there is very little difference in potential sunshine hours all through June, in the north it could be 16 or even 17 hours in clear weather).

    So anyway, the question will be this: how many days in June will see 10 hours or more sunshine at Malin Head, and what will be the maximum duration? Give a date (1 to 30 June) for a superbonus of one or two points.

    NormaL ____ 13.6 __ 26.5 __ 2.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 4 days, 13.0 h (date not scored for NormaL)

    M.T. Cranium _ 14.0 __ 27.1 __ 1.4 __ 105 __ 110 ___ 6 days, 15.5 h (25th)

    =================================

    date superbonus for that sunshine will be based on 2 points for hitting the maximum date, or 1 point for either being one day out on it (not using 31 May or 1 July), or hitting a separate second place date (no margins on that). To be clear only Malin Head sunshine will be used for this, amounts anywhere else will not factor into scoring.

    (deadline 0300h Tuesday 1st of June, usual late penalties apply).

    Anyone entering after 15z 1st cannot score any superbonus points for any June date before 3rd, and same two-day lag until late entries cease to appear.

    Also at my discretion, an amount already known in a late entry situation can be docked up to two of the five available points. The other five points will be based on the number of days. "Ten hours" will be scored by 9.5 hours or more qualifying.

    The climate section of the met.ie website gives the normal June daily sunshine hours at Malin Head as 5.5 hours, with maximum recorded 16.0 hours and average of 2.4 days with zero sunshine.


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