June 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

Right then, I also found out that Malin Head is no longer reporting sunshine hours, assuming this is going to persist through June, as JPmarn was suggesting earlier, Belmullet is the closest substitute so I will have to score this from their reports, however, if anyone now wants to change their forecast knowing that, you have until end of 3rd to do so and then I will create the table of entries. So you can if possible edit your post or just add that amendment, I won't bother to do so although I suspect Belmullet might have more days above 9.5 hours so will add one to NormaL's forecast.

No edits on other forecasts (I will have copies of current posting to work from).

Table of forecasts for June 2021


FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ BONUS


WesternStorm ____________15.0 _ 29.0 _ 2.0 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 8 d, 16.0 h (15th)

Kindred Spirit ____________ 15.0 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 065 _ 140 ___ 8 d, 14.5 h (28th)

Adam240610 _____________14.9 _ 28.7 _ 2.3 _ 070 _ 140 ___ 8 d, 16.1 h (24th)

Appledrop _______________ 14.8 _ 27.1 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 9 d, 15.3 h (13th)

Gonzo _________ (-2) _____14.7 _ 27.6 _ 2.8 _ 105 _ 116 ___ 4 d, 14.5 h (14th)

Mr Stonewall _____________14.6 _ 28.6 _ 3.1 _ 081 _ 115 ___ 9 d, 16.2 h (10th)

Jpmarn _________________ 14.6 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 7 d, 15.5 h (14th)

Dacogawa _______________ 14.6 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 096 _ 124 ___ 6 d, 16.0 h (15th)

Artane2002 ______________14.6 _ 27.4 _ 2.7 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 4 d, 15.0 h (26th)

200motels _______________14.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.4 _ 101 _ 111 ___ 5 d, 14.3 h (21st)

Tae laidir ________________14.5 _ 28.0 _ 2.4 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 4 d, 12.3 h (13th)

Pauldry _________________ 14.5 _ 27.1 _ 3.7 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 5 d, 15.0 h (30th)

sryanbruen ______________ 14.5 _ 27.0 _ 2.1 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 5 d, 15.1 h (22nd)


___ Con Sensus __________ 14.5 _ 27.5 _ 2.3 _ 096 _ 111 __ 6.5 d, 15.0 h (19th)


Dasa29 _________________ 14.5 _ 24.0 _ 2.0 _ 080 _ 130 ___12 d, 15.0 h (24th)

Joe Public _______________ 14.4 _ 28.8 _ 1.8 _ 099 _ 120 ___ 8 d, 16.4 h (14th)

Sunflower3 ______________ 14.4 _ 25.1 _ 2.6 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 7 d, 12.0 h (18th)

CirrusBusiness ____________14.3 _ 27.3 _ 3.6 _ 085 _ 125 ___ 9 d, 15.4 h (14th)

SleetAndSnow ___ (-3) ____ 14.2 _ 27.8 _ 2.4 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 4 d, 14.8 h (17th)

MrSkinner _______________14.2 _ 27.5 _ 2.2 _ 111 _ 091 ___ 6 d, 12.0 h (15th)

waterways ______________ 14.0 _ 27.9 _ 1.4 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 4 d, 13.3 h (24th)

M.T. Cranium ____________ 14.0 _ 27.1 _ 1.4 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 6 d, 15.5 h (25th)

Bsal ___________________ 13.9 _ 27.0 _ 1.8 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 6 d, 16.0 h (23rd)

Esposito ________________ 13.9 _ 26.5 _ 3.1 _ 080 _ 132 ___ 8 d, 16.2 h (22nd)

John mac _______________ 13.8 _ 26.1 _ 1.9 _ 105 _ 103 ___ 7 d, 14.5 h (29th)


____ NormaL ____________13.6 _ 26.5 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 4 d, 13.0 h ( -- )


DOCARCH _______________13.4 _ 25.8 _ 1.8 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 3 d, 12.8 h (18th)

Eon1208 _______ (-1) ____ 13.2 _ 27.5 _ 2.1 _ 103 _ 109 ___ 8 d, 16.0 h (28th)

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For the sunshine bonus, here's the count of each variable ...

Days (9.5h +) __ Max Hours ________ Dates

12 _____ 1 ____ 15.5+ _____ 10 ____ 30 _ 1 ___ 21 _ 1

9 ______3 ____ 15.0-15.4 ___ 6 ____ 29 _ 1 ___ 18 _ 2

8 ______6 ____ 14.5-14.9 ___ 4 ____ 28 _ 2 ___ 17 _ 1

7 ______3 ____ 14.0-14.4 ___ 1 ____ 26 _ 1 ___ 15 _ 3

6 ______4 ____ 13.5-13.9 ___ 0 ____ 25 _ 1 ___ 14 _ 4

5 ______3 ____ 13.0-13.4 ___ 1 ____ 24 _ 3 ___ 13 _ 2

4 ______5 ____ 12.5-12.9 ___ 1 ____ 23 _ 1 ___ 10 _ 1

3 ______1 ____ < 12.5 _____ 3 ____ 22 _ 2

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(Con Sensus takes the median on these, which is why they choose 19th, despite no guesses for that date.

-- median for 26 forecasts is average of 13th and 14th ranked)

Sunshine adjustment available to end of today, folks. After that we go with what you said.

After the first week of June ...

IMT on 13.4 C which is 0.6 above normal for the period.

MAX and MIN have not been tracked by me at all, hoping for more obvious candidates later.

PRC at 44% of normal, without Valentia it would be closer to 30% and some places have been almost dry.

SUN is at 77.3% (464/600) although two Dublin locations are running above normal and the rest quite cloudy so far.

BONUS -- no action at all yet.

OUTLOOK -- GFS continues to suggest one warm week and one cooler week in the next fortnight, some other guidance goes more for warm continuing to be dominant. The warm to cold scenario would probably be accompanied by a return to wetter patterns than we'll see this coming week where 25% of normal rainfall might be about the limit for the grid, 50% west to near zero east. Sunshine may pick up slightly although a rather cloudy flow persists.

The one good thing about the sunshine situation is that there probably hasn't been any more sunshine at Malin Head than at Belmullet so that the last-minute change of location isn't having much effect on the outcome.

Congrats to DOCARCH, 200motels and john mac if that holds up ... which it could. Tuesday threatens to be almost as warm in the southeast. After that, not too many obvious chances.

We have at least passed our lowest forecast which was 24.0. A lot of the higher ones are going to be stranded above the high tide line.