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June 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 30-05-2021 2:50am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭


    1. Predict the IMT, the mean temperature at five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon), average 1981-2010 was 13.6 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, the highest temperature reported at any of the 25 regular reporting locations of met.ie as shown in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website.

    3. Predict the MIN, the lowest temperature reported at any of the 25 regular reporting locations of met.ie as shown in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website.

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall) as a percentage of normal June amounts, from the average of eleven locations (the same five as in part 1 above, plus Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, Cork, and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine hours) as a percentage of normal June amounts (which are around 5-6 hours a day). This is verified against reports from six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon, Valentia).

    6. BONUS _ After consulting with some of you on the May thread, I've decided to go with the "maximum sunshine hours" suggestion of several people, but I won't confine it to one day (the 21st is thought of as being the longest day but in reality there is very little difference in potential sunshine hours all through June, in the north it could be 16 or even 17 hours in clear weather).

    So anyway, the question will be this: how many days in June will see 10 hours or more sunshine at Malin Head, and what will be the maximum duration? Give a date (1 to 30 June) for a superbonus of one or two points.

    NormaL ____ 13.6 __ 26.5 __ 2.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 4 days, 13.0 h (date not scored for NormaL)

    M.T. Cranium _ 14.0 __ 27.1 __ 1.4 __ 105 __ 110 ___ 6 days, 15.5 h (25th)

    =================================

    date superbonus for that sunshine will be based on 2 points for hitting the maximum date, or 1 point for either being one day out on it (not using 31 May or 1 July), or hitting a separate second place date (no margins on that). To be clear only Malin Head sunshine will be used for this, amounts anywhere else will not factor into scoring.

    (deadline 0300h Tuesday 1st of June, usual late penalties apply).

    Anyone entering after 15z 1st cannot score any superbonus points for any June date before 3rd, and same two-day lag until late entries cease to appear.

    Also at my discretion, an amount already known in a late entry situation can be docked up to two of the five available points. The other five points will be based on the number of days. "Ten hours" will be scored by 9.5 hours or more qualifying.

    The climate section of the met.ie website gives the normal June daily sunshine hours at Malin Head as 5.5 hours, with maximum recorded 16.0 hours and average of 2.4 days with zero sunshine.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 24 WesternStorm


    WesternStorm _ 15.0 __ 29.0 __ 2.0 __ 85 __ 120 ___ 8 days, 16.0 h (15th)


  • Registered Users Posts: 193 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3____ 14.4 __ 25.1 __ 2.6__ 90 __ 110 ___ 7 days, 12.0 h 18th June


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Pauldry____ 14.5__ 27.1__ 3.7__ 100__ 115 ___ 5 days, 15.0 h 30th June


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 345 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 15.0 ___ 28.0 ___ 2.0 ___ 65 ___ 140 ___ 8 days 14.5 hours 28th.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,775 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal ____ 13.9 __ 27.0 __ 1.8 __ 80 __ 105 ___ 6 days, 16.0h 23rd


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  • Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Dasa29____ 14.5 __ 24.0 __ 2.0__ 80 __ 130 ___ 12 days, 15.0 h 24th June


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,864 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Mr Stonewall_____14.6___28.6____3.1____81___115___9 days 16.2hrs 10th


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _ 14.5 __ 27.0 __ 2.1 __ 100 __ 110 ___ 5 days, 15.1 h (22nd)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,484 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Malin Head does not publish sunshine data as in Yesterday’s weather page or in the farming reports in the forecast section. May I suggest Belmullet as one of the more northern station that does record sunshine instead?


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,150 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ____ 13.4 __ 25.8 __ 1.8 __ 095 __ 105 ___ 3 days, 12.8h (18th)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Artane2002 ____ 14.6 __ 27.4 __ 2.7 __ 110 __ 110 ___ 4 days, 15.0 h (26th)


  • Registered Users Posts: 377 ✭✭waterways


    waterways _ 14.0 __ 27.9 __ 1.4 __ 95 __ 105 ___ 4 days, 13.3 h (24th)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public _ 14.4 __ 28.8 __ 1.8 __ 99 __ 120 ___ 8 days, 16.4h (14th)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,130 ✭✭✭John mac


    John mac_ 13.8__ 26.1 __ 1.9 __ 105 __ 103 ___ 7 days, 14.5 h (29th)


  • Registered Users Posts: 205 ✭✭CirrusBusiness


    CirrusBusiness _ 14.3 __ 27.3 __ 3.6 __ 85 __ 125 __ 9 days, 15.4h (14th) Belmullet


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,484 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ____ 14.6 __ 27.8 __ 2.5__ 105 __ 110 ___ 7 days, 15.5 h (14th)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 394 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner____14.2____27.5____2.2____111____91____6d,12h,15th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭esposito


    Esposito _ 13.9 __ 26.5__ 3.1__ 80 __ 132__ 8 days, 16.2h (22nd)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,047 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Appledrop___14.8___27.1__2.0__90%__115%__9days__14.7h___13th.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,047 ✭✭✭appledrop


    M.T that's the 13th June. Thanks.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,604 ✭✭✭200motels


    200motels 14.6 __ 26.0 __ 2.4 __ 101 __ 111___ 5 days, 14.3 h 21st


  • Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ___ 14.5 __ 28.0 __ 2.4 __ 105 __ 105 ___ 4 days, 12.3 h (13th) - Belmullet


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa____ 14.6__ 27.8__ 2.5__ 96__ 124 ___ 6 days, 16.0 h (15th)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 826 ✭✭✭adam240610


    Adam240610. 14.9___ 28.7___ 2.3___ 70 ___ 140 ___ 8 days 16.1 hours 24th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 286 ✭✭eon1208


    13.2 __ 27.5 __ 2.1__ 103 __ 109__ 8 days, 16 hours, 28th.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Gonzo _ 14.7 __ 27.6 __ 2.8 __ 105 __ 116 ___ 4 days, 14.5h (14th)


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    SleetAndSnow ____ 14.2__ 27.8 __ 2.4 __ 095___ 110 ___ 4 days, 14.8h (17th)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Right then, I also found out that Malin Head is no longer reporting sunshine hours, assuming this is going to persist through June, as JPmarn was suggesting earlier, Belmullet is the closest substitute so I will have to score this from their reports, however, if anyone now wants to change their forecast knowing that, you have until end of 3rd to do so and then I will create the table of entries. So you can if possible edit your post or just add that amendment, I won't bother to do so although I suspect Belmullet might have more days above 9.5 hours so will add one to NormaL's forecast.

    No edits on other forecasts (I will have copies of current posting to work from).


  • Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Oak Park reached 21.9 yesterday for openers.
    (Belmullet 0.0 hours sunshine!)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for June 2021


    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ BONUS


    WesternStorm ____________15.0 _ 29.0 _ 2.0 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 8 d, 16.0 h (15th)

    Kindred Spirit ____________ 15.0 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 065 _ 140 ___ 8 d, 14.5 h (28th)

    Adam240610 _____________14.9 _ 28.7 _ 2.3 _ 070 _ 140 ___ 8 d, 16.1 h (24th)

    Appledrop _______________ 14.8 _ 27.1 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 9 d, 15.3 h (13th)

    Gonzo _________ (-2) _____14.7 _ 27.6 _ 2.8 _ 105 _ 116 ___ 4 d, 14.5 h (14th)

    Mr Stonewall _____________14.6 _ 28.6 _ 3.1 _ 081 _ 115 ___ 9 d, 16.2 h (10th)

    Jpmarn _________________ 14.6 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 7 d, 15.5 h (14th)

    Dacogawa _______________ 14.6 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 096 _ 124 ___ 6 d, 16.0 h (15th)

    Artane2002 ______________14.6 _ 27.4 _ 2.7 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 4 d, 15.0 h (26th)

    200motels _______________14.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.4 _ 101 _ 111 ___ 5 d, 14.3 h (21st)

    Tae laidir ________________14.5 _ 28.0 _ 2.4 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 4 d, 12.3 h (13th)

    Pauldry _________________ 14.5 _ 27.1 _ 3.7 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 5 d, 15.0 h (30th)

    sryanbruen ______________ 14.5 _ 27.0 _ 2.1 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 5 d, 15.1 h (22nd)


    ___ Con Sensus __________ 14.5 _ 27.5 _ 2.3 _ 096 _ 111 __ 6.5 d, 15.0 h (19th)


    Dasa29 _________________ 14.5 _ 24.0 _ 2.0 _ 080 _ 130 ___12 d, 15.0 h (24th)

    Joe Public _______________ 14.4 _ 28.8 _ 1.8 _ 099 _ 120 ___ 8 d, 16.4 h (14th)

    Sunflower3 ______________ 14.4 _ 25.1 _ 2.6 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 7 d, 12.0 h (18th)

    CirrusBusiness ____________14.3 _ 27.3 _ 3.6 _ 085 _ 125 ___ 9 d, 15.4 h (14th)

    SleetAndSnow ___ (-3) ____ 14.2 _ 27.8 _ 2.4 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 4 d, 14.8 h (17th)

    MrSkinner _______________14.2 _ 27.5 _ 2.2 _ 111 _ 091 ___ 6 d, 12.0 h (15th)

    waterways ______________ 14.0 _ 27.9 _ 1.4 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 4 d, 13.3 h (24th)

    M.T. Cranium ____________ 14.0 _ 27.1 _ 1.4 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 6 d, 15.5 h (25th)

    Bsal ___________________ 13.9 _ 27.0 _ 1.8 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 6 d, 16.0 h (23rd)

    Esposito ________________ 13.9 _ 26.5 _ 3.1 _ 080 _ 132 ___ 8 d, 16.2 h (22nd)

    John mac _______________ 13.8 _ 26.1 _ 1.9 _ 105 _ 103 ___ 7 d, 14.5 h (29th)


    ____ NormaL ____________13.6 _ 26.5 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 4 d, 13.0 h ( -- )


    DOCARCH _______________13.4 _ 25.8 _ 1.8 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 3 d, 12.8 h (18th)

    Eon1208 _______ (-1) ____ 13.2 _ 27.5 _ 2.1 _ 103 _ 109 ___ 8 d, 16.0 h (28th)


    For the sunshine bonus, here's the count of each variable ...

    Days (9.5h +) __ Max Hours ________ Dates

    12 _____ 1 ____ 15.5+ _____ 10 ____ 30 _ 1 ___ 21 _ 1

    9 ______3 ____ 15.0-15.4 ___ 6 ____ 29 _ 1 ___ 18 _ 2

    8 ______6 ____ 14.5-14.9 ___ 4 ____ 28 _ 2 ___ 17 _ 1

    7 ______3 ____ 14.0-14.4 ___ 1 ____ 26 _ 1 ___ 15 _ 3

    6 ______4 ____ 13.5-13.9 ___ 0 ____ 25 _ 1 ___ 14 _ 4

    5 ______3 ____ 13.0-13.4 ___ 1 ____ 24 _ 3 ___ 13 _ 2

    4 ______5 ____ 12.5-12.9 ___ 1 ____ 23 _ 1 ___ 10 _ 1

    3 ______1 ____ < 12.5 _____ 3 ____ 22 _ 2


    (Con Sensus takes the median on these, which is why they choose 19th, despite no guesses for that date.

    -- median for 26 forecasts is average of 13th and 14th ranked)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,047 ✭✭✭appledrop


    M.T, I'll keep my days the same for bonus qyestion but can I change max hours of sunshine to 15.3 hours. Thanks.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunshine adjustment available to end of today, folks. After that we go with what you said.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    4.3hours on 4th the max so far for month.

    Just for statistical purposes :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After the first week of June ...

    IMT on 13.4 C which is 0.6 above normal for the period.

    MAX and MIN have not been tracked by me at all, hoping for more obvious candidates later.

    PRC at 44% of normal, without Valentia it would be closer to 30% and some places have been almost dry.

    SUN is at 77.3% (464/600) although two Dublin locations are running above normal and the rest quite cloudy so far.

    BONUS -- no action at all yet.

    OUTLOOK -- GFS continues to suggest one warm week and one cooler week in the next fortnight, some other guidance goes more for warm continuing to be dominant. The warm to cold scenario would probably be accompanied by a return to wetter patterns than we'll see this coming week where 25% of normal rainfall might be about the limit for the grid, 50% west to near zero east. Sunshine may pick up slightly although a rather cloudy flow persists.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Think there was 5.4hours of sun in Belmullet last Saturday but maybe this will be beaten this Saturday.

    Hard to see to many sunny days in Belmullet in the coming 7 to 10 days apart from maybe Friday and Saturday


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The one good thing about the sunshine situation is that there probably hasn't been any more sunshine at Malin Head than at Belmullet so that the last-minute change of location isn't having much effect on the outcome.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,047 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Hmm I don't know where I was going with my 9 days of 10+ hours of sunshine!

    In fairness it has been much nicer in Dublin so I think I was feeling very optimistic when I was posting my predictions for this month.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    yup could end up very low.

    Southwesterly airflow killing it along the West and North

    12.3hours sunshine in Belmullet so far in June. Just 30% of normal


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,150 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Max. of 22.5c at Phoenix Park yesterday. Could well do better today?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,047 ✭✭✭appledrop


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Max. of 22.5c at Phoenix Park yesterday. Could well do better today?

    Yea I think it will hit 23 today. Weather has been unreal in Dublin nearly 20 degrees everyday, but I know the rest of country has not been as lucky.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    appledrop wrote: »
    Yea I think it will hit 23 today. Weather has been unreal in Dublin nearly 20 degrees everyday, but I know the rest of country has not been as lucky.

    Today is a bit of a disappointment, while it is very warm considering the cloud and wind, the sun is really struggling to get going. We will need a big improvment in the afternoon like yesterday to see temperatures getting any higher than 21 or 22C. We may have to wait for Saturday and Sunday to see the warmest temperatures of the year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yes after the next few days that appears to be it regarding temperatures around 25c for June...but not set in stone. Could just be 7 days or so of cooler weather


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    There's a bit of a 2007 look to the model run this morning, hope it doesn't go that bad, but towards the end of the GFS run it gets quite wet. I don't trust early June warmth, never seems to correlate well with good summers.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,047 ✭✭✭appledrop


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Max. of 22.5c at Phoenix Park yesterday. Could well do better today?

    22.5 again on 10th at Phoenix Park.

    Hopefully we are in for a scorcher on Sunday all over the country and max will be beaten.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I have no clue what MIN is at this point, think I saw a 5 point something in the midlands one day this month. I can't remember a time when I had to wait for the MS to find out a MAX or MIN but may have to do that this month if no obvious candidates show up.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Still no sunny day and Belmullet and we are nearly halfway through the month. Tomorrow probably cloudy too in downgraded weekend scorcher for the West. It will hardly be zero days but remarkable dull. Still if a thundery shower regime sets up that would be best for West and Northwest coasts and we'd hear those in Munster and Leinster complain of the rain


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,047 ✭✭✭appledrop


    New Max of 25.7 at Phoenix Park today according to twitter account of Met Eireann.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Congrats to DOCARCH, 200motels and john mac if that holds up ... which it could. Tuesday threatens to be almost as warm in the southeast. After that, not too many obvious chances.

    We have at least passed our lowest forecast which was 24.0. A lot of the higher ones are going to be stranded above the high tide line.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,150 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    I see Phoenix Park has be adjusted to a max. of 25,6c for yesterday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Prob the highest for a while maybe the whole month but tentative signals of some warmer weather towards the end of June


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