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June 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

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Comments

  • #2


    9.6 hours of sunshine at Belmullet yesterday, please tell me M.T that counts as near enough to 10 hours.

    If so we are on a whole 2 days of 10+ hours at Belmullet.


  • #2


    Yes I did mention that 9.5 was the min required to count a day, so that's two now, we narrowly missed a third day that got to 8.4 hours earlier this month.

    Here's the update on all the variables ...

    IMT is now 13.9 C after a third week that averaged 12.8 C, 1.2 below normal. The rest of the month looks rather cool at times so would imagine the final result will be similar to where we are now.

    MAX remains 25.6 C -- could hold to the end.

    MIN was 1.8 C, waiting to see if that changes as Mountdillon had several hours at 2 C last night.

    PRC has actually dropped slightly to 40% after the third week managed an average of only 34%. That is probably the low point as some slightly higher percentages seem likely but enough to pass 65% (our minimum forecast from Kindred Spirit)? Not too sure about that. With normal rainfall 22nd to 30th, the 40% increases to 55%, with 150% normal it comes out at 68%.

    SUN has improved to 87% with the third week at 116.7% (700/600). That probably won't change a lot either.

    For the BONUS, a bit more optimistic now that our range will be served by the outcome, we're now at 2 days (the 16th had the most so far), and could limp in with 3 or 4, would not be surprised if one of those additional days goes past the 10.2h max so far.


  • #2


    New Min 1.3 on 22nd at Mt. Dillion.


  • #2


    You have to wonder how it can get so cold on such a short night.


  • #2


    I know. Colder than many places in the Arctic currently are.


  • #2


    Looks fairly promising for a few more sunny days at Belmullet at any rate, will probably be touch and go each day now, so the total could be anywhere from the current 2 to 7, thinking it almost inevitable that one of these five days will exceed the previous max of 10.2 hours. Not that much rain fell over the contest grid (or the country) and models almost bone dry to end of month, looks like a finish not far from 50% there.

    I did a study over on net-weather of what often happens after a June like this one which sees a drop from first to second half in temperature, and with British data the tendency seems to be that it rebounds gradually through July into August with the second peak more likely to be in August than July. That would probably hold true for Irish data also. Would not be looking for July to be all that warm a month and the current model output seems to say near average first week and rather cool second week.

    These are just tendencies and not ironclad rules. A few of the sample group (30 of 250 have seen a drop of at least 1.0 C from first half to second half averages) did have a warmer July than August, but more had a peak in August, about half the set had the usual similar averages. There also wasn't much of an indication of unusual warmth later in the summer, almost none of the best summers fall into this set (sometimes with a smaller drop, a hot summer followed).


  • #2


    12.7 hours of Sunshine in Belmullet Sat 26th.


  • #2


    Add a fourth sunny day now as Sunday had 10.7 hours. (Sat 26th the max now)


  • #2


    After four weeks ...

    IMT on 13.7, the fourth week average was 13.1, which was 1.3 below normal. Expect a finish of 13.8.

    MAX 25.6, MIN 1.3 -- these appear set now.

    PRC edged up to 48% with the fourth week producing 72% of normal. This will finish around 45% as 29th-30th add nothing much.

    SUN now at 89% with the fourth week at 94% (565/600). This seems likely to finish on or around 90%.

    BONUS _ Up to four days now, yesterday fell a bit short at 8.5h, max has been 12.7 on 26th. Today looks like a definite cloud-out so we finish either four or five depending on how things go tomorrow.

    With the extreme heat I have had, the end of the month has loomed large in front of me this morning, so will get to work on the next thread soon.


  • #2


    Confirmed scoring for June 2021


    Most outcomes are now known, the IMT was 13.8 after 29th and looking at the hourlies today I estimate it will finish 13.9 (edit _ it held at 13.8). MAX 25.6, MIN 1.3, PRC 45%, SUN est 95% (lots of sun yesterday and today), and four days 9.5h+ at Belmalin Head, the max on 26th of 12.7h (second highest 27th, no guesses for that date so no issue about it qualifying for second place superbonus). As 16th was third and also separated as mentioned, could shift the one point additional there, but no exact hits on that date either. Superbonus of two then to Artane2002 (26th) and MTC (guessed one day off the peak 25th). No guesses for 27th.


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ days_max h (sb) _ TOTAL


    DOCARCH ______________ 21 _ 20 _ 15 _ 07*_ 08 ___ 04 05 ____ 80

    John mac _______________25 _ 17 _ 14 _ 03*_ 08 ___ 02 04 ____ 73


    ____ NormaL ____________23 _ 13 _ 13 _ 05*_ 09 ___ 05 05 ____ 73


    Bsal ___________________ 24 _ 06 _ 15 _ 13*_ 08 ___ 03 01 ____ 70

    waterways ______________ 23 _ 01 _ 19 _ 07*_ 08 ___ 05 05 ____ 68

    Sunflower3 ______________19 _ 17 _ 07 _ 09*_ 07 ___ 02 05 ____ 66

    M.T. Cranium ____________23 _ 07 _ 19 _ 03*_ 07 ___ 03 02 (1)__65

    200motels ______________ 17 _ 18 _ 09 _ 04*_ 07 ___ 04 04 ____ 63

    sryanbruen ______________18 _ 08 _ 12 _ 05*_ 07 ___ 04 03 ____ 57

    Esposito ________________ 24 _ 13 _ 02 _ 13*_ 03 ___ 01 01 ____ 57

    Dasa29 _________________18 _ 06 _ 13 _ 13*_ 03 ___ 00 03 ____ 56

    MrSkinner ______________ 21 _ 03 _ 11 _ 01*_ 09 ___ 03 05 ____ 53

    Appledrop _______________15 _ 07 _ 13 _ 09*_ 06 ___ 00 03 ____ 53

    SleetAndSnow ___ (-3) ____21 _ 01 _ 09 _ 07*_ 07 ___ 05 03 _53-3=50

    Tae laidir _______________ 18 _ 01 _ 09 _ 03*_ 08 ___ 05 05 ____ 49


    ___ Con Sensus __________18 _ 03 _ 10 _ 06*_ 07 ___ 02 03 ____ 49


    Joe Public _______________19 _ 00 _ 15 _ 06*_ 05 ___ 01 02 ____ 48

    Kindred Spirit ____________13 _ 01 _ 13 _ 15*_ 01 ___ 01 04 ____ 48

    Eon1208 _______ (-1) ____ 19 _ 03 _ 12 _ 04*_ 07 ___ 01 01 _47-1=46

    WesternStorm ___________ 13 _ 00 _ 13 _ 11*_ 05 ___ 01 01 ____ 44

    Pauldry _________________18 _ 07 _ 00 _ 05*_ 06 ___ 04 03 ____ 43

    Artane2002 _____________ 17 _ 04 _ 06 _ 01*_ 07 ___ 05 01 (2)__43

    CirrusBusiness ___________20 _ 05 _ 00 _ 11*_ 04 ___ 00 02 ____ 42

    Jpmarn _________________17 _ 01 _ 08 _ 03*_ 07 ___ 02 02 ____ 40

    Dacogawa _______________17 _ 01 _ 08 _ 06*_ 04 ___ 03 01 ____ 40

    Gonzo _________ (-2) ____ 16 _ 02 _ 05 _ 03*_ 06 ___ 05 04 _41-2=39

    Mr Stonewall ____________ 17 _ 00 _ 02 _ 12*_ 06 ___ 00 01 ____ 38

    Adam240610 ____________ 14 _ 00 _ 10 _ 14*_ 01 ___ 01 01 ____ 31


    Notes: MAX had a number of low and zero scores, the field was boosted by two points and one point range extended. PRC scored by minimum progression.

    (actual forecasts)

    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ BONUS


    WesternStorm ____________15.0 _ 29.0 _ 2.0 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 8 d, 16.0 h (15th)

    Kindred Spirit ____________ 15.0 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 065 _ 140 ___ 8 d, 14.5 h (28th)

    Adam240610 _____________14.9 _ 28.7 _ 2.3 _ 070 _ 140 ___ 8 d, 16.1 h (24th)

    Appledrop _______________ 14.8 _ 27.1 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 9 d, 15.3 h (13th)

    Gonzo _________ (-2) _____14.7 _ 27.6 _ 2.8 _ 105 _ 116 ___ 4 d, 14.5 h (14th)

    Mr Stonewall _____________14.6 _ 28.6 _ 3.1 _ 081 _ 115 ___ 9 d, 16.2 h (10th)

    Jpmarn _________________ 14.6 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 7 d, 15.5 h (14th)

    Dacogawa _______________ 14.6 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 096 _ 124 ___ 6 d, 16.0 h (15th)

    Artane2002 ______________14.6 _ 27.4 _ 2.7 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 4 d, 15.0 h (26th)

    200motels _______________14.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.4 _ 101 _ 111 ___ 5 d, 14.3 h (21st)

    Tae laidir ________________14.5 _ 28.0 _ 2.4 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 4 d, 12.3 h (13th)

    Pauldry _________________ 14.5 _ 27.1 _ 3.7 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 5 d, 15.0 h (30th)

    sryanbruen ______________ 14.5 _ 27.0 _ 2.1 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 5 d, 15.1 h (22nd)


    ___ Con Sensus __________ 14.5 _ 27.5 _ 2.3 _ 096 _ 111 __ 6.5 d, 15.0 h (19th)


    Dasa29 _________________ 14.5 _ 24.0 _ 2.0 _ 080 _ 130 ___12 d, 15.0 h (24th)

    Joe Public _______________ 14.4 _ 28.8 _ 1.8 _ 099 _ 120 ___ 8 d, 16.4 h (14th)

    Sunflower3 ______________ 14.4 _ 25.1 _ 2.6 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 7 d, 12.0 h (18th)

    CirrusBusiness ____________14.3 _ 27.3 _ 3.6 _ 085 _ 125 ___ 9 d, 15.4 h (14th)

    SleetAndSnow ___ (-3) ____ 14.2 _ 27.8 _ 2.4 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 4 d, 14.8 h (17th)

    MrSkinner _______________14.2 _ 27.5 _ 2.2 _ 111 _ 091 ___ 6 d, 12.0 h (15th)

    waterways ______________ 14.0 _ 27.9 _ 1.4 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 4 d, 13.3 h (24th)

    M.T. Cranium ____________ 14.0 _ 27.1 _ 1.4 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 6 d, 15.5 h (25th)

    Bsal ___________________ 13.9 _ 27.0 _ 1.8 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 6 d, 16.0 h (23rd)

    Esposito ________________ 13.9 _ 26.5 _ 3.1 _ 080 _ 132 ___ 8 d, 16.2 h (22nd)

    John mac _______________ 13.8 _ 26.1 _ 1.9 _ 105 _ 103 ___ 7 d, 14.5 h (29th)


    ____ NormaL ____________13.6 _ 26.5 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 4 d, 13.0 h ( -- )


    DOCARCH _______________13.4 _ 25.8 _ 1.8 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 3 d, 12.8 h (18th)

    Eon1208 _______ (-1) ____ 13.2 _ 27.5 _ 2.1 _ 103 _ 109 ___ 8 d, 16.0 h (28th)


    Will confirm the IMT tomorrow and then check other numbers against the MS on Friday 2nd. Don't expect any significant changes to this, so congrats to DOCARCH, John Mac and NormaL, also Bsal.

    Looks as though the annual table will tighten up as a result of this month, the best 6 of 7 totals will be taking some other month for quite a few, so you won't lose as much ground as you might expect in that category (some of our annual contest leaders don't have scores as low as they just posted, so will be adding on the former lowest score and not this one). That "best of" goes to 7 of 8 in August but then 7 of 9 in September as we approach the final stages.


  • #2


    Thanks M.T, I know weather wasn't great everywhere in June but one of best June's I can remember in Dublin.

    Plenty of sunshine, loads of days with 20+ degrees and practically no rain.

    I might not have scored too well this month but I don't mind as weather so fab!

    Well done to DOCARCH, on the ball this month.


  • #2


    I checked the IMT, it stalled at 13.84 so that will be adjusted, also the SUN was more generous on 30th than I thought from the first go round, so I will score that from 95% (which I think benefits almost everyone). Will check it all tomorrow and post the annual updates.


  • #2


    Annual scoring update January to June 2021


    The ranks before the forecaster's name refer to total (all six months where applicable) scores and the second entry in brackets is the previous month's rank for that. ... The rank after "best 5/6" is for that category and the second entry in brackets there is also last month's rank for best 4/5. This category is only ranked for those who have now played at least four of six. The "best of" scoring will continue in this way to August (best 7 of 8) then will become best 7 of 9 in September, so you're still alive in that contest so long as you have only missed two months.


    rank (prev) _ FORECASTER ______ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun__TOTAL___ best 5/6__ rank (prev)


    t 02_(05) __sunflower3 __________76 _ 37 _ 72 _ 66 _ 67 _ 66 __ 384 ________ 347 ____ 01 (01)

    t 02_(02)__sryanbruen __________75 _ 76 _ 47 _ 69 _ 60 _ 57 __ 384 ________ 337 ____ 02 (t02)


    (t01)_(01)_____Con Sensus ______65 _ 59 _ 81 _ 67 _ 64 _ 49 __ 385 ________ 336 ____(06) ((06))


    _01_(01)__ Appledrop ___________56 _ 75 _ 75 _ 52 _ 74 _ 53 __ 385 ________ 333 ____ 03 (t02)

    _04_(03)__ Artane2002 __________67 _ 48 _ 87 _ 61 _ 63 _ 43 __ 369 ________ 326 ____ 04 (t04)

    t 08_(14) __ john mac ___________62 _ 68 _ 68 _ 34 _ 52 _ 73 __ 357 ________ 323 ____ 05 (14)

    _06_(04)__ Pauldry _____________58 _ 47 _ 72 _ 64 _ 79 _ 43 __ 363 ________ 320 ____ 06 (06)

    _05_(08) __ MrSkinner __________ 58 _ 63 _ 75 _ 70 _ 47 _ 53 __ 366 ________ 319 ____ 07 (09)

    t 08_(t06)__dacogawa ___________79 _ 60 _ 67 _ 61 _ 50 _ 40 __ 357 ________ 317 ____t08 (08)

    _11_(t06)__ Adam240610 ________58 _ 68 _ 54 _ 65 _ 72 _ 31 __ 348 ________ 317 ____t08 (11)

    t 15_(11) __Gonzo ______________81 _ 20 _ 83 _ 40 _ 74 _ 39 __ 337 ________ 317 ____t08 (t04)


    (11)_(17) __ __ NormaL _________59 _ 76 _ 58 _ 48 _ 35 _ 73 __ 349 ________ 314 ____(11) ((17))


    _07_(15) __ DOCARCH __________ 54 _ 50 _ 70 _ 54 _ 54 _ 80 __ 362 ________ 312 ____t11 (20)

    _10_(09)__ JPmarn _____________63 _ 76 _ 69 _ 64 _ 39 _ 40 __ 351 ________ 312 ____t11 (07)

    t 15_(13) ___Kindred Spirit _______58 _ 82 _ 67 _ 27 _ 55 _ 48 __ 337 ________ 310 ____ 13 (12)

    _13_(10)__ Cirrus Business _______35 _ 53 _ 73 _ 67 _ 72 _ 42 __ 342 ________ 307 ____ 14 (10)

    _12_(18) __ Bsal _______________ 41 _ 50 _ 73 _ 48 _ 62 _ 70 __ 344 ________ 303 ____t15 (19)

    _14_(17)__ M.T. Cranium ________ 47 _ 37 _ 65 _ 79 _ 47 _ 65 __ 340 ________ 303 ____t15 (18)

    _23_(t22) __ eon1208 ___________ 53 _ 76 _ 62 _ 58 _ --- _ 46 __ 295 ________ 295 ____ 17 (15)

    _17_(12) __ Mr stonewall _________65 _ 59 _ 41 _ 68 _ 60 _ 38 __ 331 ________ 293 ____t18 (13)

    _18_(16) __ tae laidir ____________67 _ 64 _ 74 _ 39 _ 35 _ 49 __ 328 ________ 293 ____t18 (16)

    _19_(20) ___200motels __________38 _ 65 _ 47 _ 75 _ 33 _ 63 __ 321 ________ 288 ____t20 (21)

    t 20_(t22) __ waterways _________ 55 _ 62 _ 29 _ 41 _ 62 _ 68 __ 317 ________ 288 ____t20 (22)

    t 20_(19)__ Western Storm _______45 _ 81 _ 74 _ 33 _ 40 _ 44 __ 317 ________ 284 ____ 22 (17)

    _22_(21) ___dasa29 ____________ 48 _ 43 _ 65 _ 42 _ 54 _ 56 __ 308 ________ 266 ____ 23 (23)

    _24_(24) __ Joe Public ___________41 _ 42 _ 45 _ 58 _ 30 _ 48 __ 264 ________ 234 ____ 24 (25)

    _25_(25) __ Danno _____________ 38 _ 10 _ 25 _ 65 _ 66 _ --- __ 204 ________ 204 ____ 25 (24)

    _26_(27) __ SleetandSnow _______ 30 _ 41 _ 77 _ --- _ --- _ 50 __ 198 ________ 198 ____ 26 (27)

    _27_(26) __ funsterdelux _________59 _ 40 _ 62 _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 161 ________________--- (26)

    _28_(28) __ sdanseo ____________51 _ --- _ 52 _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 103

    _29_(29) __ BLIZZARD7 _________ 10 _ 21 _ 34 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 65 ________________--- (28)

    _30_(---) __ Esposito ____________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 57 ___ 57

    _30_(30) __ Bazlers _____________ 34 _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 34

    _31_(31) __ Tazio ______________ --- _ 26 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 26

    ===========================================================

    Some of the movements in the "best of" portion went against the run of June scoring because some other month than June was added to the previous total if the June score was the lowest so far. This applied also to Con Sensus where 59 was added rather than the 49 June score.

    John mac and DOCARCH made nice moves up the tables and it's generally a bit tighter now top to bottom as quite a few of the higher scores in June went to the lower half of the scoring table.

    This table is now confirmed as June is final. Congrats to sunflower3, appledrop and sryanbruen for maintaining their leads in the two contest scoring systems. Artane2002 is in fourth in both now. It has become a very close contest well back into the middle of the pack.


  • #2


    Scoring is now confirmed. The temperature extremes were verified and SUN worked out to 925 hours (an average of 154) compared to the normal value of 161 (from daily average 5.35). That is very close to 95%. Belmullet held the average down, the other five locations were all a little above normal, but Belmullet was barely half of their average.

    Some time later I will update the category totals.


  • #2


    Updated category totals for all forecasters -- Jan to June 2021


    This table's order is the present contest order but for total score (actual as shown below, total after penalties) and not the best 5 / 6 order of the scoring table.


    Forecaster ___IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BNS Tot Act (Pen)


    Max Possible __ 150 120 120 090 060 060+ 600 600 000 _Max Possible


    Appledrop ____ 101 079 066 058 036 045 _385 385 000 _Appledrop


    _ Con Sensus __099 078 074 054 042 038 _385 385 000 _Con Sensus


    Sunflower3 ___ 092 078 088 045 045 039 _387 384 003 _Sunflower3

    sryanbruen ___ 113 077 059 052 039 044 _384 384 000 _sryanbruen

    Artane2002 ___ 096 081 076 039 038 039 _369 369 000 _Artane2002

    MrSkinner ____ 109 056 077 038 045 041 _366 366 000 _Mr Skinner

    pauldry ______ 105 078 043 049 043 044 _362 362 000 _pauldry

    DOCARCH ____ 088 089 055 049 046 035 _362 362 000 _DOCARCH

    Dacogawa ____ 096 071 069 052 038 031 _357 357 000 _Dacogawa

    john mac _____107 061 056 046 047 040 _357 357 000 _john mac

    Jpmarn ______ 118 040 082 040 039 034 _353 351 002 _ Jpmarn


    __ NormaL ____103 062 050 048 047 039 _349 349 000 __NormaL


    Adam240610 __103 063 085 050 025 033 _359 348 011 _Adam240610

    Bsal _________ 093 068 050 063 044 026 _344 344 000 _Bsal

    CirrusBusiness_ 110 057 041 064 034 036 _342 342 000 _CirrusBusiness

    M.T. Cranium __103 062 057 053 039 026 _340 340 000 _M.T. Cranium

    Gonzo _______ 098 063 068 049 038 038 _354 337 017 _Gonzo

    Kindred Spirit __104 054 054 070 030 029 _341 337 004 _Kindred Spirit

    MrStonewall ___086 067 065 052 033 028 _331 331 000 _MrStonewall

    Tae laidir _____ 097 065 038 048 041 039 _328 328 000 _Tae laidir

    200motels ____ 093 054 043 049 039 048 _326 318 008 _200motels

    waterways ____ 102 025 062 037 043 052 _321 317 004 _waterways

    Western Storm_ 082 044 047 062 046 036 _317 317 000 _WesternStorm

    Dasa29 _______092 023 060 058 040 035 _308 308 000 _Dasa29

    Eon1208 ______079 045 056 047 040 030 _297 295 002 _Eon1208 (5/6)

    Joe Public _____063 042 072 039 030 020 _266 264 002 _Joe Public

    Danno _______ 034 042 031 048 022 022 _199 204 -005_Danno (5/6)

    SleetAndSnow _ 049 036 030 032 031 025 _203 198 005 _SleetAndSnow (4/6)

    Funsterdelux __ 037 029 038 022 026 016 _168 161 007 _Funsterdelux (3/6)

    sdanseo ______ 037 016 010 020 013 012 _108 103 005 _sdanseo (2/6)

    BLIZZARD7 ____016 017 000 021 006 004 _064 065 -001_BLIZZARD7 (3/6)

    Esposito ______ 024 013 002 013 003 002 _057 057 000 _Esposito (1/6)

    Bazlers _______ 019 000 000 005 010 000 _034 034 000 _Bazlers (1/6)

    Tazio _________001 000 012 008 005 002 _028 026 002 _Tazio (1/6)

    _______________________________________

    Note: A negative penalty is a score adjustment upwards from the category totals, for a minimum score (which is 10).
    Contest rank is based on "Act" (actual), "Tot" is category total score before penalty or adjustment.

    Three highest totals in each category:

    IMT __ JPmarn 118 (78.7%) _ sryanbruen 113 (75.3%) _Cirrus Business 110 (73.3%)

    MAX __ DOCARCH 89 (74.2%) _Artane2002 81 (67.5%) _ Appledrop 79 (65.8%)

    MIN __ Sunflower3 88 (73.3%) _ Adam240610 85 (70.8%) _ JPmarn 82 (68.3%)

    PRC __ Kindred Spirit 70 (77.8%)_ Cirrus Business 64 (71.1%) _ bsal 63 (70.0%)

    SUN __ John mac 47 (78.3%) _ Western Storm, DOCARCH 46 (76.7%)

    BONUS _ waterways 52 (86.7%), 200motels 48 (80%), Appledrop 45 (75%)


    thanks again to tae laidir for getting this interesting contest aspect started earlier this year.


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