Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

floorpie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117730298#Comment_117730298

It's neither of them, and the exact answer depends on the details of the relevant trial. In either case, figures like "90% protection" are measured relative to the unvaccinated cohort in the trial who were exposed to COVID-19 and were infected by it. In some trials, it's measured relative to those unvaccinated, exposed, infected, and symptomatic.

So e.g. in the Moderna trial data, in the cohort that went through the full protocol, out of ~30,000 people, 187 were infected by COVID-19 over the course of 759 days in the placebo group (1.24% of the placebo group), and 12 infected by COVID-19 in the vaccine group over 759 days (0.08% of the vaccine group). Figures such as 90% effectiveness represent the difference between these two numbers.

This is how you report a relative risk reduction. Some criticise reporting only of relative risk reduction (e.g. Outcome Reporting Bias in COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Clinical Trials - PubMed (nih.gov)) because it leads to a misunderstanding by the public of what "protection" it is that you're getting. You see completely incorrect interpretations of what it means in threads like this. Really, your absolute risk (at the moment) of being 1) exposed, 2) infected, 3) symptomatic, are tiny, according to all trial data.

On the other hand, with a variant with a high r0, you could expect many people will be exposed, so in theory the relative risk is still a useful figure from a lay perspective.

Ficheall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117730651#Comment_117730651

So the fully vaccinated 3/4 of the population are giving 1/5 of the positive cases, vs. the not fully vaccinated 1/4 giving 4/5 of the positive cases. Which suggests, all other things being equal, vaccination reduces chance of testing positive by.. about 92%? That's a nice number :)

floorpie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117731098#Comment_117731098

No, your chances of testing positive, and being symptomatic such that you decide to get tested or go to hospital, are very small. Only relative to people who are unvaccinated and test positive, your risk is reduced by this amount, on average.

accensi0n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117727751#Comment_117727751

Where does the 3925000 number come from? Don't know where the best source to check is.

This says 3425000

https://covid-19.geohive.ie/pages/vaccinations

Ficheall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117731123#Comment_117731123

Apologies, but it's late, and I'm not following you. I did say all other things being equal, because I'm not going to try factor in likelihood of going for a test/taking chances etc. Could you elaborate upon your point, perhaps with some numbers to help those of us who should be asleep?

User1998

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117728020#Comment_117728020

Do you honestly think that people are getting on planes un vaccinated travelling half way across the world just hoping that they don’t get asked for a covid cert?

Just because a few people didn’t get asked doesn’t mean its not being enforced

floorpie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117731146#Comment_117731146

I had a confusing typo in my post, apologies.

You're correct to say that being vaccinated reduces your chances of being infected by x%, but it's only correct when compared to people who are unvaccinated and get it.

In my post above I list the figures from the Moderna trial. 1.24% of people in the placebo group were infected over 2 years, and 0.08% of the vaccinated group were infected. That's a ~90% reduction in infection relatively, but the chance of being infected in the first place were very small (approx 1.32% of 30k people, over 2 years).

Ficheall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117731206#Comment_117731206

Right - the Moderna example is (1.24-0.08)/1.24 = 93.5% reduction and the example using the given Irish numbers is (12-1)/12=0.917% reduction. Same method, as far as I can tell. (The Moderna example was split conveniently in half, whereas the Irish numbers were in a 3:1 vax:unvax ratio. Factoring in this ratio to the 1:4 vax:unvax positivity split gives the 1 (vax) and 12 (unvax) numbers above.) The chances might be smallish in both cases, but that doesn't really negate the relative reduction due to (presumably) the vaccine.

floorpie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117731280#Comment_117731280

Yeah absolutely, it doesn't negate the relative reduction, and RRR is sensible to use. I just see many misinterpretations of what it means, and how efficacy was assessed during trials. So my point is just that your chance of getting COVID isn't reduced by 90%. In the trial above in the overall cohort, your "chance" of being infected was reduced by 1% or so during the trial period if you were vaccinated.

Ficheall

Ah, I see the point you're making now. Gotcha.

BorneTobyWilde

All these people in the papers , or online, all these stories of super fit people dying, but when you google their names you find nothing on these people, no social media, no traces of them whatsoever. It's like they're made up stories to make people get vaccinated .

Real Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117728409#Comment_117728409

If the person is vaccinated they shouldn't feel any threat from those who aren't.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117731330#Comment_117731330

Yes, yes, I am sure you a right. Makes perfect sense

Lumen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117731123#Comment_117731123

I disagree. Several countries with reasonably high vaccination rates seems to be converging on a case rate of around 10% per year. If the unvaccinated majority are at lower individual risk of being a case, then the burden of infection will be carried disproportionally by the unvaccinated majority, and even more so the burden of disease.

The vaccinated will not tolerate endless restrictions to protect the unvaccinated, and are increasingly likely to just take their chances with a mild infection, particularly as they see others in their peer group experiencing the same.

Even Ireland's extremely conservative health bureaucrats are starting to talk casually about case rates that would have prompted extreme restrictions a few months ago.

antimatterx

The portal says I've awaiting my second dose despite the fact I've had 0 doses?

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117731815#Comment_117731815

Call the helpline

blackcard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117731125#Comment_117731125

Apologies, got my numbers mixed up. 3425000 have got the first dose. An extra 500000 will bring us to 3925000 or 80% of the population

blackcard

So with the portal opening for 12 -15 year olds on Thursday, more or less everyone that wants a first dose should have received one by the end of August with all second doses being completed by 20th of September. After that, booster doses for the vulnerable and Health Care Workers with Mass Vaccination Centres temporarily closed down until approval for dosing 8 - 11 year olds?

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117731386#Comment_117731386

Plus are people now saying they support permanent restrictions absent 100% vaccination?

That is a new development.

So much for these vaccines, which might as well offer no protection if a vaccinated person feels they can't even be in the same room as someone who hasn't taken one.

The whole thing of treating other human beings as toxic bio-hazards is a moral mistake and not some purely technical matter.

funnydoggy

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1424799118224932865

Vaccines ftw

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117731918#Comment_117731918

That's a dreadful use of statistics

feelings

How many doses were administered last week? Are we starting to see a slow down in uptake in general, or is the slow down caused by supply issues?

Pablo Escobar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117731957#Comment_117731957

I make it 244,138 last week. It had been flagged that supply would be lower in August, but I'm not sure how the Romanian supply factors into that going forward. I'd say there are a number of factors on the demand side like smaller cohorts and generally lower uptake (still very good, however), but the numbers are still strong and we're on a good trajectory. Remember that the 30-34's are still only getting their #2 jabs at the moment so there's still a bit to go.

kg703

Getting really annoyed. My 28 days are now up, got a vaccine appointment for when I was out west on a staycation, same day as my husband. We both rescheduled. 24 hours later he got his vaccine appointment and had his vaccine last wednesday. 12 days later, still no text back and the HSE helpline are zero help.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117731386#Comment_117731386

If a person drives carefully then they should not feel any threat from those who drive recklessly?

growleaves

Edit: delete

Lumen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117731905#Comment_117731905

You're just looking for arguments to justify your refusal to get vaccinated.

FWIW I don't feel that my health is threatened in the presence of an unvaccinated person, but I will avoid spending time indoors with them because I pose a threat to their health. Less so than when I was unvaccinated, but a risk is still there.

I have a neighbour who has avoided the vaccine so far on the basis that he's a fit and healthy 69 year old and doesn't think he needs it. That's fine by me, but I won't be inviting him indoors as I don't want to put his health at risk. His kids are on at him to get vaccinated so maybe the message will sink in eventually.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117731955#Comment_117731955

Really annoys me seeing stats like that.

I'd rather know what % of people doubled jabbed needed hospital care vs the % unvaccinated who needed hospital care (based on similar age/profile etc...)

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117732117#Comment_117732117

Well my question was not directed at you but at posters who feel that they are personally unprotected post-vaccination. Are they still so vulnerable that they need to strip the rights of others indefinitely?

Some people refuse chemotherapy for various reasons. Their choice.

When does the siege come to an end?

floorpie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117731472#Comment_117731472

You can't disagree that risk is reported relative to unvaccinated people that get infected, that's just the way it is :P

It is true though that if the entire population was infected, or if infection was perpetual year on year, RRR would indicate the overall outcome between unvaccinated and vaccinated. However it's wrong to assume that this is a likely outcome imo.

A paper this week from Texas showed an analysis of 10k people. About 20% had natural immunity and weren't vaccinated. So it's likely that a large % of people are exposed, infected, and are immune, but don't realise. This is probably what's happening in places with lax or no lockdowns, and low case rates, like Sweden and UK.

Estimation of Total Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in Texas | medRxiv