Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

spockety

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122680133#Comment_122680133

Before:

After:

200 grand haircut.. ouch..

Estate agent actually took down the original ad and put up a new one so the price drop wouldn't be obvious.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122680968#Comment_122680968

There will be more haircuts to come 100%.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122680500#Comment_122680500

I cannot see the increase In stamp duty having any effect on turnover at tge upper end of the market. On a 2 million euro house it's an extra 15k the number of houses sold above that is miniscule. Whike technically stamp duty is a tax on the buyer the seller pays through a reduced price.

There is very little we can do about turnover unless we increase PT substantially. You can put all the carrots in place you like but there is very little suitable accommodation around the country to encourage downsizers. Any that is there is as expensive as staying put.

I did the sums on it recently and it only makes sense if I could get planning and build again.

Blut2

The idea that a 15k increase in stamp duty on a 2million euro house will restrict supply of housing in a significant way is fairly obviously nonsense.

The number of 2million euro homes being sold by people downsizing is minuscule as things stand, and the number of said sellings likely to be cancelled because of a 15k increase in stamp study reducing their profit by a tiny amount is even smaller.

At that price point (and wealth point) the point of downsizing is for accessibility concerns (stairs), or maintenance (large gardens, large low BER house), or geography (wanting to move closer to grandkids or specific amenities like walking distance to a village). Receiving say 785k into your pocket instead of 800k is not going to influence many decisions.

edit: and the widely recognised two biggest issues with the Irish tax system are 1) it not being broad enough and 2) it taxing income instead of wealth. This, even though its tiny, at least helps move both of those needles in a positive direction.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122680968#Comment_122680968

Interesting, bit at the guts of a million, it's still beyond the reach of most people. To qualify for a mortgage of that size, one would need an income of 200k or more, which even for a couple is far from common (despite what some posters on this thread have claimed before).

Villa05

Its a wealth tax (that can't be avoided) offset by increased inheritance tax thresholds plus increased pension pot tax breaks for the super wealthy

A non issue

Land and property contribute the least tax and are the biggest beneficiary of tax spending. Any move closer to property paying it's fair share is a positive step forward

spockety

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122683156#Comment_122683156

I'd say most houses above 600K or so involve large amounts of cash rather than mortgages.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122683316#Comment_122683316

Agreed.

You do not buy a 1mil house at >70% LTV. Its mostly equity that fuels purchases in the top end of the market. So looking at loan to income ratios is kind of irrelevant for house prices up at that end of things.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122683316#Comment_122683316

Well my grandmother's house sold for 800k to a cash buyer, so I'd believe it. The amount of cash floating about is unreal.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122683156#Comment_122683156

It’s a 200sqm, A1 rated house within a 5 minute walk from Orwell Road. It would be extremely odd if it wasn’t beyond the reach of the vast vast vast majority of households?

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122683588#Comment_122683588

I accept your point, but I think we need to be careful of simply accepting that paying one million for a family home in a good area is desirable. As has been pointed out many times before, the inflation in house prices is far beyond the inflation income. Thus, whilst that house was never within the reach of everyone, it was certainly not confined to an extreme minority.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122683652#Comment_122683652

Very much so:

spockety

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122683588#Comment_122683588

With all due respect to its location in the wider area.. the immediate locale doesn't strike me as the kind of terrace of houses I'd blow a million quid to live on.

I'll never disagree with a market though, if the market thinks it's worth 1m, and its proven by someone paying 1m for it, then it's worth 1m. One to watch with interest.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122684236#Comment_122684236

Can’t claim to know the area well, but it’s certainly close to a lot of very very expensive areas

At €500 per sqm, - it’s pretty ‘cheap’ on paper for even a half decent place in South Dublin. Move it 5 mins north to Ranleagh, Rathmines, Dartry and it’d be closer to €1,000 per sqm. On that basis I’m going to predict it will make above asking. You’ll have to come back to this post when it hits the PPR because I’ll have long forgotten!

Rocket_GD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122684299#Comment_122684299

I know the area very well, live nearby and this is my partners dream house if we won the lotto, it's been up for well over 4 months at this stage at the original price before the 200k drop.

My thinking is people who wanted to buy in the area could have bought a similar house (before it was renovated) for around 600/650 and had it renovated to this standard for well below the original €1.1m asking price. At it's current price, mad as it is to say, it seems decent value.

spockety

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122684339#Comment_122684339

There ya go so, the appetite exists for it! Now they just need to find someone with the same mindset who does have the readies 😊

I think at 1.2M (which was the original asking) it was never achievable. Everywhere has some kind of local ceiling, and in this case they were asking someone to pay 1.2M for a house in an estate where most houses went for 600-700K over the last couple of years (caveats around condition, size etc., point still stands on a mental ceiling).

I originally posted it as evidence that the 1.2 to 1M drop is part of a collection of recent drops that may indicate that Estate Agents got out way too far ahead of themselves with some mad prices thinking that things were madder than perhaps they really are. (I still think things are mad, but not THAT mad)

Rocket_GD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122684474#Comment_122684474

That's the thing it was overpriced initially and there isn't the appetite at that level. If people can buy in the area for half the original price and use a couple of hundred grand to do it exactly to their specifications, why would they buy this house.

It is a mad market but glad that it isn't completely insane (yet) and some sellers and EA's have had to readjust their expectations.

lindhouse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122684299#Comment_122684299

The price is high for the area, but it also does not seem to have the right planning permissions for the big extension. They've been refused permission a few times already, but just got a High Court Appeal so it's going back for planning permission. Surprised it went to market without planning - surely no bank would have approved a mortgage on it.

https://www.pleanala.ie/en-ie/case/311892

Dan Steely

I had a terraced house in a large provincial town valued at 166k in Dec 22 and at 177k in Oct 23.

What would be a ball park value today?

I know there are variables, just looking for some best guesses.

Rocket_GD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122694405#Comment_122694405

Very hard to give any relatively decent estimations without a lot more info ie, 2/3 bed? Location ie. proximity to to town, facilities surrounding it, condition of house, rear garden size and direction, BER rating etc.

Judging on price rise from 2022 to 2023, I'd say add the same amount if not a bit more so €190k would be my ballpark estimation.

Rooks

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122694405#Comment_122694405

You could check the Property Price Register for other properties sold on that street. Just make sure the house you're looking at is the same type.

DataDude

No respite yet it seems. Bidding at €1.965m, up €100k today alone. Lovely house but seems a stretch. Dermot Bannons name hardly adding that much value to it?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/30-brighton-ave-foxrock-dublin-18/4831193

FernandoTorres

I'd be shocked if that house in Churchtown goes for under €1m. Have been surveying the market for a good while and seen plenty of smaller places in very poor states in the likes of Churchtown, Rathfarnham and Terenure go for over €900k

chalky_ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122694922#Comment_122694922

400k over asking to have the luas go past your back garden every 12 mins, bargain.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122695635#Comment_122695635

Its far enough away to not hear the Luas. And it should be every 3 or 4 mins at peak times. :)

Villa05

Housing in Limerick is making considerably more than an average salaried worker

Up 15,000 in the last quarter

https://www.limerickpost.ie/2024/10/08/limerick-house-prices-up-e15000-in-third-quarter-of-this-year/

Lord Trollington

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122683579#Comment_122683579

I went sale agreed recently on a property in Dublin.

In a casual conversation with the agent subsequently about the housing market at the moment and she said the market is flooded, particularly in Dublin with middle eastern and Asian cash buyers buying properties outright in South Dublin. It is pushing up prices throughout Dublin as normal mortgage buyers have to look in other areas with a lack of supply.

Both her and my solicitor have both said separately that they've never seen or could have predicted as difficult market to buy in as they are witnessing at the moment. You need need to read the myhome.ie report this week to see how much over asking properties are going for at the moment. 18 months ago a property sold near me for €650k. The exact equivalant property a number of doors up sold for €890k a few weeks back. It's completely broken and I've just gotten myself into it too as I need a home for my family.

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122702266#Comment_122702266

I'm looking around South Dublin too; I haven't seen any evidence of Middle eastern or asian people viewing places at all. Maybe I'm missing it.

I'm not saying it's not happening btw, I'm just saying I haven't seen it.

The Irish Times ('In The News') did a podcast on it a few months ago, saying that it was a thing. I'm just unsure to the extent of it I suppose.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122702266#Comment_122702266

One of the interested parties for my grandmother's house was an Asian investor, but he didn't buy it in the end. I do know for a fact that one Chinese investor owns three houses (all rented out) near my other (thankfully still living) grandmother.

As to foreign cash buyers in general, this is just one more practice that should not be permitted. However, the people who run the state see Ireland as an economic zone and an investment farm, and the social costs of their behaviour do not bother them.

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122703429#Comment_122703429

I do wonder about the lack of action on it; other countries seem to impose a steeper tax on foreign buyers.