Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122703605#Comment_122703605

There has been no action because the presence of investors here drives up prices, which is precisely what the powers that be wish.

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122703667#Comment_122703667

I'd say they're looking for a sweet spot of housing inflation, and not the f*cking moronic galloping out of control rates of inflation we're seeing at the moment. This situation provides political vulnerabilites, not advantages.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122703694#Comment_122703694

Maybe, but I rather think that they just don't care.

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122703785#Comment_122703785

It certainly doesnt seem to be a priroity.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122704019#Comment_122704019

Back in 2014 Michael Noonan made it pretty clear what the priorities were. Aside from some black-swan event like a SF-led gov't crashing the economony I don't see this changing.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122705087#Comment_122705087

SF is unlikely ever to achieve power in my opinion. Beyond that, even if they were to form a government, nothing that they would would drastically depart from the same globalist economic policies beloved of Noonan and other such compradores. Whatever that black swan may be, it certainly isn't going to come in the form of a group of communists calling themselves nationalists.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122703394#Comment_122703394

2 friends have sold houses >1m to chinese cash buyers, they favour newer builds from what ive heard.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122683512#Comment_122683512

respectfully id say youd be surprised. You get 2 professionals with no kids, earning say 120k each, thats 240k, plenty of them taking a 700k + mortgage.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122705087#Comment_122705087

FFG crashing the economy might be a greater "black swan" likelihood

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122705087#Comment_122705087

That was 10 years, when house prices were on the floor, and the problem was that a fair chunk of the electorate were in negative equity. Things have chanced a fair bit since.

I'm not saying they do or dont want house prices where they are, and where they're heading. But quoting Michael Noonan from 10 years ago doesnt tell us much.

AlmightyCushion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122705454#Comment_122705454

Especially seeing as he said he wanted them to go up another bit. If property prices were only going up a bit the past few years, things wouldn't be that bad.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122705454#Comment_122705454

Well by the same logic the current government certainly do not want prices to fall.

So irrespective of whether or not they want them to actually rise, supporting them to ensure they don't fall appears to be fuelling a rise.

And thus it is a vicious circle.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122705454#Comment_122705454

There is merit to this idea. I don't know whether Noonan intended prices to go to the moon, but I doubt that he really cares. He has his pension, and I'm sure he's cleaned up on investments on the side.

This brings up something to consider. We here often discuss the housing situation as if it's a disaster. It objectively is, but let us not fall into the mistake of believing that this is universally recognised. A sizable proportion of people here are doing very, very well from the situation, and a lot of people who are secure and comfortable. I see a lot of 242 cars around, expensive housing renovations and packed shops.

When one is not affected by a problem, it is not a problem. Humans don't really think too far beyond their own needs. Unfortunately for Ireland, the people making the decisions are almost exclusively those who are benefiting from things as they are. Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122705235#Comment_122705235

I would not sell my house to an investor unless I was absolutely desperate.

I'm not trying to sound high and moral here, and I'm not casting aspersions on your friends, but a big part of what created the current problems we have is the mind-set of the hyper individual. That is to say, if one can benefit from something, they do it and do not consider the consequences.

In the same way that anyone worried about the environment should consider their own consumption and habits, anyone worried about the future of their community and Ireland in general should do the same.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707169#Comment_122707169

in both cases the family moved in, they werent purchased to rent.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122705238#Comment_122705238

Statistically as per CSO and BPFI mortgage reports, that is an almost non existent proportion of buyers.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707161#Comment_122707161

This was true in the noughties and it did not prevent a collapse. If you think FFG policies are good for you, your in for Mike Tyson slap later

timmyntc

People are unaware of the negative impact high house prices have on them.

High housing costs (mortgage and rent) puts upward pressure on cost of living and in turn upward pressure on all prices.

Part of the reason Ireland is so expensive to do almost anything is because housing costs are so high which ripple across the economy. It is also the primary driver of the living wage needing to go up and as a result, the minimum wage being increased.

So even if you're doing great with your investments ticking up, if you actually live in Ireland and go out to eat, drink and shop in Ireland, you are paying more because of higher housing costs. Unfortunately many are too short sighted to see the connection

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122708006#Comment_122708006

not in south dublin which is where i am.

Rooks

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122708031#Comment_122708031

"Part of the reason". A small part. The primary reason for "basket of goods" (eat, drink, shop) inflation was driven by the significant increase in money supply during the pandemic. The true myopia is not seeing that, imo.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122707161#Comment_122707161

Indeed. About 70% of adults own their own homes in Ireland.

I dont think the majority of them want to see house prices fall.

Dublin having expensive house prices is in line with other large employment centres across Ireland, the UK and the US, as well as other parts of Europe.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122705216#Comment_122705216

I don't exactly rate SF or their plans but what I see with FF/FG is a demonstrable intention of perpetuating the problems.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122672370#Comment_122672370

Confirmed by the Taoiseach

Speaking to the Business Post, Harris said that the increased stamp duty was “not an additional tax on living in a house” worth over €1.5 million.

“It is a tax on margins about that amount should you sell that house,” he said.

“I think it was a fairness measure in the sense of doing a lot of things on inheritance, which I believe passionately that we should.”

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/simon-harris-modest-mansion-tax-a-matter-of-fairness/

Listendernow

Anyone any thoughts on the following? Myself and my partner bought there end of the year 2022, the house we bought was in Louth, Detached for about 315k. We've done a fair bit of work / renovation to it (it was a complete wreck if I'm honest). Going to get some valuations this week coming to potentially sell up and was curious about what I should expect to see in terms of the value. Everyone is saying it's going up but frankly I can't imagine it selling. My parents seem to think it could be worth closer to 400k now, I think I'd be lucky to get 340 out of it.

The reason I am looking is because the situation has changed now for the better and I'm looking to upgrade a bit basically, but not too pushed if it doesn't work out.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122708659#Comment_122708659

The govt will move towards 50k new homes from next year onwards.

They are making changes to the planning process and hiring hundreds more staff to speed it up, as well as making judicial reviews much harder to invoke.

So there is progress and I dont believe SF would match the numbers thar FFG will deliver over the next 5 years anyway.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122711761#Comment_122711761

Sounds great, but I'll believe it when I see it.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122711880#Comment_122711880

We are building more houses per capita than any country in Europe AND we are growing our housing output faster than any other country. That is incredible.

It was always going to be an uphill fight following the lost decade of construction from 2007 - 2017, followed by COVID, followed by a series of global conflicts and a rapid increase in migration to Europe.

But the hard construction numbers show the last few years have been a remarkable success story and the outlook for the next few years is excellent too.

Rocket_GD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122711947#Comment_122711947

It may be excellent from a data perspective, it’s still a nightmare out there for people trying to buy.
House prices are continuing to rise, there’s no slow down in the market at all and we’ve eclipsed 2007 heights.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122712257#Comment_122712257

I don’t disagree but any time you are behind the curve on something, proper performance management is to have key indicators and see them move in the right direction.

In Ireland our key statistic is undoubtedly number of houses built per annum. We are doing phenomenally well on a global scale here.

To throw it all in the bin because a very long term problem which was created between 2009-2016 is not ‘fixed’ would be silly. It would be like a relegation football team who move to mid table sacking the manager because they didn’t win the league immediately. Progress is progress.

On prices. We have effectively 0 unemployment, the highest wage inflation in many decades along with what looks like a rapidly falling interest rate environment. The potential for house prices to fall in such a scenario is practically 0. It just has never happened anywhere ever and likely never will.

Comparing the price of an asset in nominal terms to 20 years ago is silly for obvious reasons. Spoiler: in 2045, house prices are going to be a hell of a lot higher than they are now.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122711947#Comment_122711947

Interestingly enough Darragh O'Brien was fact checked by the journal.ie on this very claim last week.

The precise statement they took issue with was:

“From 20,000 homes in 2020, to what we estimate will be close to 40,000 homes in 2024 – a near doubling of the housing output.

“We’ve managed to do this despite a global pandemic, despite a brutal war in Ukraine, and all the associated challenges that came with it.

“We’re the top country in Europe for housing construction.”

As you say, it is more houses per capita, and that is blindingly obvious without anybody needing to spell out.

However, the journal branded his claim as "misleading", an attempt to either intentionally or unintentionally mislead people, on the grounds:

His claim was based on figures by a group called Euroconstruct, which compared Ireland’s projected level of housing construction this year and in 2025 with 18 other countries.

Crucially, this comparison was done on a per capita basis – which favours Ireland as the least-populated country in the group – rather than looking at outright figures.

Furthermore, as a projection, it is not based on the number of homes that have actually been constructed.

When the number of homes completed in Ireland in 2022 and 2023 is compared with the other 18 countries, it’s possible to see that outright figures put us towards the bottom of the table.

So it is possible to say we're the almost the worst in Europe! That's a much better story.

I'm highly critical of government policy on housing and O'Brien in particular, but pulling him up on this is total nonsense.

The journal are just peddling another example of how we're addicted to bad news and doommongering when it comes to housing in Ireland. Anything that is remotely positive is spun and presented as bad news, as for whatever reason we all seem to be much happier in the belief that the problems will never be solved.

https://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck-ireland-top-country-europe-house-building-6503625-Oct2024/