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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,908 ✭✭✭Villa05


    These SCSI figures really need to be independently examined

    Nick Delehanty has another great thread on X examining the cost of the rapid build units for Ukrainians and offers 3 bed alternatives from Irish owned steel tech sheds with all in costs @ less than 100k per unit

    Sisk have the contract and are paid in an all in costs basis + profit @ percentage of all in costs. This contract incentivises provision at the highest possible cost hence being 4 times the cost of steel tech options

    https://x.com/Nick_Delehanty/status/1841012535643840840?t=R3wddAHntmLBIL_errzxTA&s=09



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,687 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I do often wonder at what price point apartments would be viable.

    I take your point that there is probably a fair bit of fat on the Scsi figures, but all we know for sure is that there is no demand to buy 500k apartments or whatever it costs.

    So at what price point is there demand? Is it 400k, 300k, 200k?

    I suspect that even if the build costs were actually in line with other European cities, there still wouldn't be much demand at those prices from Joe Public.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,908 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Have we any data on how much the aparthotels are costing to build?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,633 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Surely if there is a viability issue, a prudent solution would be to tackle the input costs rather than throwing money to plug the gap.

    The government have a lot of tools at their disposal to make construction cheaper and reduce land prices (the magic of taxation). But they choose to inflate prices instead. I wonder why



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,687 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Yep I'd agree that input costs could be brought down, but point I'm making is even if apartments were cheaper to buy, how much demand is there?

    I think the lack of demand is not just down to high cost, I get the impression that most Irish household buyers don't want to buy apartments, so even if they were 2/3 the current price, the demand might not be so great anyway and they'd still be unviable.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,633 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Its just a myth really.

    Irish people majority buy houses because majority built are houses, because small builders lack finance and skills for large apartment building.

    Our construction industry is rather backward in that regard.

    Sure at one stage Irish people were buying apartments in Bulgaria! Its not an aversion to apartments it's an aversion to poorly built apartments.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,363 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Builders eill build what tgey can finance abd sell. It's nothing about being backwards. It not so much that apartments are poorly build ( we actually have fairly strong regulations regarding size, windows, balcony's etc. Probably bit behind on storage.

    We have a serious issue with cost and finiance. A builder can fairly easily build a site with houses in stages. An apartment block goes up in the one go. Per sqft they are more expensive to build than a house. From start to completion a block of apartments could take the bones of two years. For 50 that could be an outlay of 20 million. 25-30% of that might get you to selling a few houses off a site with 50 of them.

    Our house building regs are gone bat sh!t crazy so I imagine apartment blocks are completely off the wall

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,363 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    There was never going to be HTB for second hand houses. It's woukd not make economic se se

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,687 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I really don't understand how it does not make economic sense - do you mean from a pissing away good taxpayers money after bad point of view.

    If the idea of HTB is to incentivise supply on the market, then it presumably it will work for second hand houses as well as new builds. Can't see an economic reason why it wouldn't?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,363 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    First off it will not increase supply. Even if it did say increase supply by 20% the government ate paying 150k per extra unit coming onto the market.

    The refurbishment grant is costing less than half that. There is no glut of empty liveable houses around. It woukd just ve a subsidity to existing homeowners who are going to sell anyway

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,633 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Even when regs were looser and finance was very easy to get, the apartment blocks that did get built were absolutely atrocious quality. The fact is Irish builders are not good at it. They do not have the expertise or scale to take it on.

    That's why almost all apartments nowadays are built by a handful of large construction outfits who do have experience. However most of Irish construction industry is made up of lots of very small outfits.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,363 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    That Is because you can no longer transition from being a small scale to larger scale builders. Even lads that survived the noughties can no longer get finiance to build at the scale that they did back then.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,687 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Where are you getting 150k from? I'm talking about HT B not shared equity.

    The refurb grant is not working. Stock of second hand houses have gone down since it was introduced.

    Census 2022 indicate s almost 10% of habitable housing stock is empty.

    HT B already just gives a subsidy to builders who would have built anyway.

    There is as much economic sense in it for existing stock as there is for new builds.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,363 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    HTB would be paid on all qualifying sales. If the supply of qualifying houses increased by 20% or one in five the griss cost for all five houses is 150k but supply is only up by one house so in reality it costing 150k to subsidise that house to get it onto the .market even though tge direct cost forage house is 30k. The other 4 house owner's who intended to sell anyway there buyers got 30kfor nothing.

    No there is not new stock adds to the housing stock existing stock is there anyway. Refurbishment grant is working it only in existence a bit over a year. Supply is ramping up,

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,687 ✭✭✭hometruths


    That's a pretty good point on the gross cost of HTB that I hadn't considered before. It just further highlights the folly of the idea, but it remains a folly that is equally applicable to new builds or used.

    There is no way refurb grant is working evidenced by supply ramping up, that's a mad claim.

    There were just 12,785 second-hand houses for sale across the country last month, new research from estate agents Sherry FitzGerald has revealed.

    That represents a drop of 7% on the same month a year ago and is 29% less than the summer of 2020, at the height of the pandemic.

    The total number of houses for sale was just 0.6% of the entire private housing stock of the country.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2024/0820/1465865-number-of-second-hand-homes-for-sale-down-7-in-july/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 248 ✭✭scrabtom


    Does anyone know when the Residential Zoned Land tax is coming in?

    I heard Jack Chambers say in the budget that farmers could apply to have residential land rezoned so as to avoid the cost but nothing about the actual implementation of the tax. I assumed based on the fact he didn't say that it's postponed that it will be coming in soon enough.

    If so that seems like a great move in the right direction, as does the increase in the vacant property tax from 5 times to 7 times local property tax.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,926 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    apparently the CAT measure is expected to have an annual cost of circa 80m and this is expected to counter act that with similar revenue, but i agree seems a misstep.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,908 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Had a quick look at prime time last night and they had a case study of a person on disability

    She recently got a 2 bed A rated home from a housing association, I was off the impression that these A rated homes would save the state on fuel allowance but it appears not

    Full fuel allowance, electricity credits plus A living alone allowance. Is there any way that a 2 bed unit could accommodate 2 persons thereby having 1 adapted living home benefit 2 people.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,325 ✭✭✭Blut2


    The lack of 1bed apartments built in Ireland comes into play here. Lots of people in social housing with spare bedrooms that should really be in 1bed apartments instead, but due to how few of them get built they get 2bed units instead.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    what is the point your making? Even if it was an old house and she was on fuel allowance she would get a retrofit paid for to upgrade BER. Isn’t this where all the extra carbon tax revenue is being recycled to.

    As for getting a 2 bed unit without understanding circumstances it’s hard to judge as it may be required for medical equipment etc….. On the other hand if it’s not your forgetting about renting out the room tax free as another possible benefit. But as I said without understanding the exact circumstances it’s very difficult to judge or form an informed opinion as this person may be struggling due to costs related to the disability that are not covered etc.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,363 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    It'd not a miss step IMO. Will 50k less stop a person downsizing from a 2 million euro house to a 500-700k euro property. Walking away with a million plus tax free after upgrades to new property

    It will not in my opinion. Buyer alright will need the funds to cover the stamp duty but at that price level I doubt if that will be an issue.

    What might have been a more significant issue is if the PT had gone up significantly on values above 1.5 million

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,908 ✭✭✭Villa05


    A rated home = C or D plus fuel allowance. Why give a fuel allowance on a home designed to operate on minimal fuel

    Most working people could never afford what's on offer under social

    The working poor pay the majority of carbon tax through poor quality rented accomodation which more often than not they must share to afford plus more likely than not, longer commutes to work in older cars

    Don't want to focus too much on the disability side as the payments we are talking about are also available to the long term unemployed. A living alone allowance is disincentive to the recipient to accept someone to share the property which can be beneficial to both parties.

    In a disability context you could have 1 occupant able to do a task the other occupant may not be able to and vice versa. They may have carers and having more in the 1 location may deliver economies of scale in administering the care they need



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    I think it's a quality issue (and a quality PR issue) more than cost. Most of the older apartments built here were such bad quality that lots won't buy apartments due to that. Need to turn around that first.

    Cost wise, most will go for a house here at a similar price point so apartments really need to be decently cheaper than houses.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Does look like this, not exactly like we need to balance the books though!



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,687 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I think they're trying to balance the political books rather than financial!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,363 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    I do not accept. In any budget you try to tax as well as spend. This is a common sense approach. Even at a 2 million property it's a 2.5% tax at 3 million its a 5.5% tax. It unlikely to stop someone downsizing and as you go up in that price bracket decision other than pure finance come into play.

    Looking at it the seller is walking away with a substantial tax free lump sum while the buyer still has there max price but is looking at a no capital gain for 1-2 years. If its inheritors selling they have a 400k tax shield to protect them from some of the pain

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,687 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I suspect you're right that it probably won't make much of a difference in the selling decision. It's just an unnecessary friction. My issue is with the signal it sends and the political thinking it reveals.

    In the context of the problems with housing the amount of stamp duty paid by somebody buying a €2m house, and the sales proceeds from somebody selling a €2m house is totally irrelevant.

    It's the only new measure related to housing, and it is does absolutely nothing to solve any of the problems in the market. The rest is all extend and pretend, continuations of stuff that is already demonstrably not working.

    This budget was the perfect opportunity to introduce something new, and this is what is new. It's a bit disappointing to say the least.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,363 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    What are the signals it send and what unnecessary friction will.it create.

    What other proposals could the government have made. It put HTB in place until 2029( it going to be very hard to wean off from that any but stability helps.

    There Is no magic bullet to fix the present housing crisis and throwing money at it is not the answer either. The whole point is to build up capacity and to utilise not in use stock.

    I was disappointed that no pension of adapting not in use commercial premises in small.towns and villages as well as pushing for tge utilisation of flats/apartments over commercial in larger urban areas and give tax breaks grants to bring this fast into use. Other than that it's patience as there is no magic bullet

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 5,588 Mod ✭✭✭✭spockety


    It looks like there's a pretty significant uptick recently in asking price drops:

    https://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges

    A lot of 5-10% reductions, but some chunkier ones too.

    Maybe a sign that EAs and vendors got a bit ahead of themselves in what they thought a panicking market could bear. Maybe a sign the winds are about to change. Who knows. In trader-upper territory, I suspect a lot of people have decided to sit things out for now given how crazy it has gone.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,687 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The signals it sends is that the government are more concerned with the political benefits of doing something that is seen to hurt rich people. It doesn't do anything to alleviate problems in the housing market.

    All it does is make it more expensive to purchase higher value houses, which will dampen demand to some extent and this slow or stop price growth in this segment, and reduce proceeds for sellers. PITA yes, but little more for these buyers and sellers. The air is a lot thinner up in this price bracket, and as you say there are many other factors than simply price.

    I'd rather see the government making interventions to try and reduce price inflation at the lower end of the market. That would be a much better signal that they are serious about solving the problems for those hurting most. Instead they are throwing more money at this segment, which is undoubtedly inflationary.

    It is an unnecessary friction because if it has the potential to cause would be trader uppers or downsizers to rethink and stay put. The lack of trader uppers and downsizers is the biggest current problem in the market, so any friction in this, no matter how negligent is a bad thing.

    I would have much prepared to see some serious carrots and sticks to try and increase turnover of existing stock, even if they're very expensive for the taxpayer. We can afford it at the minute. I don't mind seeing taxpayers money at a problem if it is at the very least alleviating the problem. What pisses me off is seeing ever increasing amounts thrown at the problem to make it worse.

    I'd had hoped we might see something because the media have been covering the second hand drought at lot over the last six months, whereas they never mentioned it in previous years. But sadly there was nothing there.



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