Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Marius34

propertyseeker wrote: »

People forget important aspect
MANY talented people will leave Ireland soon as world open again
These would be same people buying property
It will be like 2010 again
People buy now
5 years time will we look back and feel sorry for them?

We can't know for sure what future will bring, but most likely NOT.

Cyrus

timmyntc wrote: »

No, I'm comparing your arrogant dismissal of the situation to that of people pre-crash.

arrogant dismissal versus massive overreaction.

Cyrus

strange looking job on this place, on the one hand parts are well done, on the other the landscaping would suggest corners have been cut, as would the rear of the garage.... needs to be better for a million quid in shankill imo.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-hedges-2-aubrey-park-shankill-dublin-d18-af10/4507895

cnocbui

Cyrus wrote: »

strange looking job on this place, on the one hand parts are well done, on the other the landscaping would suggest corners have been cut, as would the rear of the garage.... needs to be better for a million quid in shankill imo.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-hedges-2-aubrey-park-shankill-dublin-d18-af10/4507895

How much do you estimate it would cost to bring it up to your spec?

cnocbui

Ozark707 wrote: »

The way I see it is that some companies who might have a strong preference to have all staff based here (for obvious reasons) are now struggling to fill language specific roles for some languages (I know of one lesser spoken language where even smaller companies are really struggling to get people to move here for, in fact they have lost more people than hired in last 12 months). They have a business decision to make. Forego business in these territories or hire locally. If they officially start to hire locally then the existing staff they have here from those countries are highly likely to request to move back.

Yeah, I'd imagine it would be difficult to attract swiss people to live in Ireland.

Cyrus

cnocbui wrote: »

How much do you estimate it would cost to bring it up to your spec?

not sure, the whole driveway would need to be done and the same around the back where those chippings are, large trees at the back need to be cut right back and the finish on the rear of the garage needs to be improved, but not sure what is involved without looking at it.

MacronvFrugals

This is a decent podcast on the Indo earlier about the implications of the FB WFH move and all it could entail


https://www.independent.ie/podcasts/the-big-tech-show/the-big-tech-show-dublin-trembles-as-facebook-says-workers-can-now-work-from-abroad-40527248.html

timmyntc

cnocbui wrote: »

Yeah, I'd imagine it would be difficult to attract swiss people to live in Ireland.

Wouldnt think that Swiss-French or Swiss-German qualified as separate languages?

propertyseeker

Marius34 wrote: »

We can't know for sure what future will bring, but most likely NOT.

It's possibility for each outcome.
I see post of prices never reverting to 2020 levels?
To me this is blasphemy
2020 prices were already overvalued
now w Corona supply further restricted so prices go up
All is temporary
2025-2030 prices will be much lower than now
short term we dont know

cnocbui

timmyntc wrote: »

Wouldnt think that Swiss-French or Swiss-German qualified as separate languages?

I think the Swiss would.

cnocbui

propertyseeker wrote: »

It's possibility for each outcome.
I see post of prices never reverting to 2020 levels?
To me this is blasphemy
2020 prices were already overvalued
now w Corona supply further restricted so prices go up
All is temporary
2025-2030 prices will be much lower than now
short term we dont know

Is that when you plan to buy? How much is 9 years worth of rent?

Villa05

Cyrus wrote:

arrogant dismissal versus massive overreaction.

Will post later but

" alot of estate agents comparing whats happening now to 2006"

Bubbles have an awful habit of popping

Ace2007

propertyseeker wrote: »

It's possibility for each outcome.
I see post of prices never reverting to 2020 levels?
To me this is blasphemy
2020 prices were already overvalued
now w Corona supply further restricted so prices go up
All is temporary
2025-2030 prices will be much lower than now
short term we dont know

Then why are you looking for houses now - why not wait?

timmyntc

cnocbui wrote: »

I think the Swiss would.

Well would Irish companies make a point of explicitly hiring Swiss german/french speakers to service that market?
I doubt it.

Hubertj

Cyrus wrote: »

strange looking job on this place, on the one hand parts are well done, on the other the landscaping would suggest corners have been cut, as would the rear of the garage.... needs to be better for a million quid in shankill imo.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-hedges-2-aubrey-park-shankill-dublin-d18-af10/4507895

I like the interior but 2 things put me off - size of the front windows and the colour of the exterior.

cnocbui

Villa05 wrote: »

Will post later but

" alot of estate agents comparing whats happening now to 2006"

Bubbles have an awful habit of popping

Well I sincerely hope it pops in NZ, but I don't hold out much hope.

propertyseeker

Ace2007 wrote: »

Then why are you looking for houses now - why not wait?

If we cant locate ok deal we will revise in two years

yagan

timmyntc wrote: »

Irelands high cost of living (and housing) is the one big deterrent to MNCs and people in general - it's quite difficult to hire at scale from EU into Ireland - the word is out and people have negative connotations about how expensive it is here (rightfully so IMO).

If English speaking staff can work in an English speaking office, but remotely - then I can see many MNCs allowing employees to remote work outside the country for a lower wage - which would still have a better purchasing power in many EU countries.

From employers POV - you still have an employee doing the work, but you save on salary costs & office space. And you can still work tightly together online in the same or similar timezones - so its not comparable to Indian outsourcing in that regard. Keep the productive staff, just pay them less if they are domiciled abroad.

There seems to be notion that all our multinationals are just googles and Facebooks. Those two companies have only been around a short time whereas biomed and pharma exports have meant we got through this pandemic with the smallest economic contraction in the EU.

Those jobs aren't going anywhere, and in fact China's first pharma plant outside the homeland is soon to open outside Dundalk.

Marius34

propertyseeker wrote: »

It's possibility for each outcome.
I see post of prices never reverting to 2020 levels?

Yes it's possible all outcomes, but in long term prices typically do not revert back. You would need to look for exceptions, rather than a typical case.

2020 prices were already overvalued

This is subjective. Price may be not affordable for most, but it's subjective to say it was overvalued.

2025-2030 prices will be much lower than now[/B]
short term we dont know

It's possible it can be lower, it's possible it can be double the 2020 prices. But both cases are unlikely. Whereas something in between is likely.

propertyseeker wrote: »

It's possibility for each outcome.

To me this is blasphemy

2025-2030 prices will be much lower than now

So nobody can know this, but you know what's to happen.

Iris11111

Reading for a while and finding it very helpful.
AIP with PTSB, Sale agreed on a property now. My question - what is the easiest way to pay the booking deposit for the agent to start the ball rolling.

yagan

Marius34 wrote: »

"One of the main causes of the Great Recession that followed the financial crisis in the mid-2000s was that the housing market crashed. This was due to the law of supply and demand.

If that were true then our bubble should have popped by at least 06 when banks started rolling over developer debt.

Our bubble didn't pop until the western markets supply of credit went in reverse in 08.

In the aftermath one estimate I read that supply met demographic demand by 2004 but credit gets prices inflating.

Pension funds are doing the same now.

Marius34

yagan wrote: »

If that were true then our bubble should have popped by at least 06 when banks started rolling over developer debt.

Our bubble didn't pop until the western markets supply of credit went in reverse in 08.

In the aftermath one estimate I read that supply met demographic demand by 2004 but credit gets prices inflating.

Pension funds are doing the same now.

In 2007 credits still were flooding the market

yagan

Marius34 wrote: »

In 2007 credits still were flooding the market

Yes, that is what I said. The credit splurge that drove prices didn't go into reverse until 08.

What's your point?

Marius34

yagan wrote: »

Yes, that is what I said. The credit splurge that drove prices didn't go into reverse until 08.

What's your point?

You was the one who said that it should have popped-up in 2006. And I explained why the bubble prolonged to 2007. Nowhere it says that it should have crashed in 2006.

jill_valentine

Cyrus wrote: »

Facebook havent opened new offices in these places, they are already there, so given that fact why the hell are people here in the first place if their life would be so much better in Barcelona or Munich?

Lot of people I know are asking themselves the same question this past year. These examples came to me specifically because my former flatmate went to Munich a few months ago himself, and both my brother's Spanish flatmates went home and aren't coming back.

Irish people are a bit limited by our lack of second languages in comparison to most, but I think we're going to suffer a tremendous brain drain when we can move around again. Whether it'll be on a scale that affects property (and thus be on topic) I don't know, but I think that wider question of why somebody would actively choose Dublin over another city, all things being equal, hangs uncomfortably in the air at the moment for a lot of 25-35 year olds. Family ties to Ireland aside, there's very little you could put on paper as a reason to try to live your life in Dublin if you could live elsewhere.

yagan

Marius34 wrote: »

You was the one who said that it should have popped-up in 2006. And I explained why the bubble prolonged to 2007. Nowhere it says that it should have crashed in 2006.

In the very post I explained why I thought it should have popped in at least 06 I explained that was sustained beyond that by credit.

Are you trolling?

This is my post you initially replied to:

If that were true then our bubble should have popped by at least 06 when banks started rolling over developer debt.

Our bubble didn't pop until the western markets supply of credit went in reverse in 08.

Where in that did I neglect to mention that credit was a factor?

Marius34

yagan wrote: »

In the very post I explained why I thought it should have popped in at least 06 I explained that was sustained beyond that by credit.

Are you trolling?

No, I'm not trolling. I may have misunderstood what you try to argue.

yagan

Marius34 wrote: »

No, I'm not trolling. I may have misunderstood what you try to argue.

Ok, cool.

You had me baffled for a minute as I had stated credit as being the reason the bubble continued inflating after 06.

propertyseeker

jill_valentine wrote: »

Lot of people I know are asking themselves the same question this past year. These examples came to me specifically because my former flatmate went to Munich a few months ago himself, and both my brother's Spanish flatmates went home and aren't coming back.

Irish people are a bit limited by our lack of second languages in comparison to most, but I think we're going to suffer a tremendous brain drain when we can move around again. Whether it'll be on a scale that affects property (and thus be on topic) I don't know, but I think that wider question of why somebody would actively choose Dublin over another city, all things being equal, hangs uncomfortably in the air at the moment for a lot of 25-35 year olds. Family ties to Ireland aside, there's very little you could put on paper as a reason to try to live your life in Dublin if you could live elsewhere.

Dublin in big trouble
We know many Europeans who have moved and will move

Also talented Irish will leave

FromADistance

propertyseeker wrote: »

Dublin in big trouble
We know many Europeans who have moved and will move

Also talented Irish will leave

But yet you're asking on another thread for property recommendations to buy in D15 & surrounding towns.... hilarious.

Anyhow, what's it to you if people leave?