Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Villa05

That was the point I was making. We don't subsidize corner shops, so why would we subsidize small developers. Subsidizing your corner shop isn't going to make your groceries cheaper. It might do the opposite if you do it enough so that the bigger shops lose some of their economies of scale

We are still getting our wires crossed.

To bring your analogy to the housing sector. It's the super rich large provider that's being subsidised through tax breaks and small provider is being handicapped by expensive unnecessary regulation that can be provided much cheaper for all participants by following the Northern Ireland model not to mention being far more effective

dontmindme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120173269#Comment_120173269

We are still getting our wires crossed.

Are you new here?

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120173299#Comment_120173299

Hint taken

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120173269#Comment_120173269

The investment fund is putting money in. More money flowing into the system means, ironically, cheaper finance. Do you understand what an investment fund is? Think of it as a more sophisticated version of you and your buddy pooling your money into a pot and using that pot to buy something rather than you each buying a smaller version for yourself. The pot itself isn't taxed. However you will be taxed on profit you take out of it. Your buddy will be taxed on the profit he takes out of it. The pot itself isn't taxed.

You appear to want all inefficient small developers to be subsidized with cheap money that they don't have. All they would be bringing to the table apparently is a sense of entitlement. That would be a great gig. I'll decide in the morning I want to be a developer. I'll set up a company. The State will give that company interest free loans. I can get an actual builder to build me some houses; which the State can have already contracted to buy off me. I'll just take my 20%, thank you very much....real public sector mentality.

DRedSky

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120173247#Comment_120173247

I doubt it with rates going up and up and another ECB 0.5% increase next Thursday.

In fact even all the worst case (gloomiest) “expert” predictions were for a modest low single digit increase if any at all.

The estate agent i spoke with was saying that the supply will go UP soon as people are generally only going to start selling/moving again in mid February onwards, she said hardly any supply any year hits the market just before/after xmas.

So just calm down a bit and don’t be stressing yourself, it’s not unusual for there to be a low amount of properties hitting the market early January so if some house goes 5% above asking it doesn’t really mean a jot, it’s eager buyers without the customary Springtime increase in properties hitting the market yet, we’ll have a clearer picture from the numbers in a months time.

Also time for the interest rate increases to take some effect too. Sure BOI only increased theirs a few days ago and by some 0.75

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120173232#Comment_120173232

Banks won’t lend to developers they will only lend to investment funds where their risk is substantially reduced. The investment fund is providing the finance to build. And just to be clear I’m specifically talking about financing to build not BTR or property funds that are buying property. like it or not that is what has happened since ‘08 all around the world due to the lessons learned from the crash.

FedoraTheAura

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120173698#Comment_120173698

Absolutely. Even those that want to keep the property market going up are saying there’ll be less than 5% increase this year, at the highest end.

Houses on the market now have in many places been up for months and are the only places available. The market is always slow at the end of the year.

I think a lot of potential buyers were waiting until Jan to get larger mortgages with the easing of lending rules. I was out the door looking myself the day after I got my new AIP. Perhaps people starting bidding wars are panicking now and will regret it down the line if prices continue to drop in Dublin.

Then there’s the potential pitfall of whether they’ll even be able to get the mortgage they’ve been quoted with banks increasing rates.

dontmindme

I'm looking at a house that has been on the market since early December and I've viewed it twice. On the first visit the estate agent tells me that an offer below the asking has been submitted but has been rejected outright - I wasn't sure from the conversation if it was the agent or the vendor doing the rejecting. Anyhoo, Christmas came and went and I viewed the house again and got a proper appraisal of what would need doing which would probably cost around 50k (hopefully) so that was that - did I consider any value could be had from it or not was now my decision. I ring up the estate agent the following week on a different phone number with a view of making an offer, and on my initial opening enquiry to him as to the current state of the sale, I was informed that the property had only just come on the market and they were still getting it prepared. The only thing I could take from this was that the EA was trying to disguise the fact that they'd yet received no offers?

Rang another EA about another house that I've seen on myhome the last six months or more, that when initially enquired about was sale agreed, so had been ignored all along in my searches until I see it again the other day and see the ad only recently refreshed. So I ring the EA and she tells me the sale had fallen through and it was back on the market, and that it was one of many where she presumed the initial AIP terms didn't materialise and where buyers had to reconsider their offers. As it transpired, the house went sale agreed a day or two later at under the original sale agreed price from last year.

ApeEvolved

Has anyone done the maths on how much sticky rate hikes could add to the end price of the home.

I think people are underestimating the fact that we are talking 6 figures on average homes.

ApeEvolved

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120173247#Comment_120173247

Its going to be an interesting year alright.

I think if prices are to stay at these heights it will have to be funds and government buying up properties. People on mortgages simply wont be able to pay and there is the impending danger of more redundancies.

Something very dangerous is brewing in the populations consciousness now, the injustice of the working class not being able to afford a council house. I think that could move government policy more then anything.

theboringfox

Low rates increased asset prices globally. When they rise they have the opposite effect. Theres lots of people claiming that Irelands scenario is different because of supply. That will mitigate the fall but there will be a fall. Rate rises only hitting home now

Browney7

https://www.ft.com/content/fd29c715-8d12-459c-980e-11b58a4a374c - How London’s property market became an inheritocracy

Interesting read with similar sentiments to those often expressed in here

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120174339#Comment_120174339

The squeezed middle are ready to burst. I actually agree those in the middle pay for everything.

From my straw man poll with people in my social and work environment people are becoming very frustrated at how they are being treated in terms of income taxes they pay and the overall everyday costs they must cover without any State assistance.

ingo1984

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120172736#Comment_120172736

It's a disaster in Limerick. I work there and the company has been understaffed for the past year and any successful job applicants end up turning down job offer as there is nowhere affordable to rent to live. Alot of other companies in the area feeling the same pinch. It was raised by numerous companies at a recent chamber of commerce and IDA meeting.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120174389#Comment_120174389

Dublin property if far more affordable than London. If you cap your search at 400k max you’re still left with half the search results for Dublin.

problem is most are apartments, in “poor people’s areas”, or need a little DIY. The “housing crisis” (talking about buying) is largely an entitlement crisis. Unlike rents, that’s a genuine issue.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120174572#Comment_120174572

looking on daft, property is so insane cheap to buy in Limerick city.

simply don’t understand people. What a massive “entitlement crisis”

”3bed semi in blackrock - nothing else”… kind of people.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/end-of-terrace-house-st-annes-limerick-city-co-limerick/4600829

just buy this. A couple on min wage is not miles away from being able to afford this.

combat14

typical conversation around ireland up for conversation on cork red fm today below - anyone buying a house now needs to drop their bids interest rates are set to rise again in feb, march, may and june as previous poster mentionned we haven't seen anything like full effect of interest rate rises in market yet:

"HOW CAN WE LIVE LIKE THIS?

'My tracker mortgage has gone up €300 since last July. I'm hearing bankers are now calling for another 1% increase to ‘offset inflation', which would make a €400 increase in less than a year. On top of that, our gas bill for the last two months is now €645. It has tripled from this time last year! How can we live like this?'

Is the ever increasing cost of living affecting you?"

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120174346#Comment_120174346

Prices have to fall or people won't be getting mortgages it's as simple as that. The 4x LTV max is all well in good but when your getting stress tested at 6 or 7% banks will be slow to give these loans out.

ingo1984

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120175532#Comment_120175532

Don't worry. The government will conjure up another policy to keep the bubble inflating.

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120176042#Comment_120176042

Definitely, not long until mortgage interest relief is brought back to keep demand high.

Beigepaint

There’s still lots of bubble inflating tricks yet to be deployed.

6x LTI for first time buyers could be next.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120176118#Comment_120176118

That's what was unveiled in England last November, it was reduced from 8 months in arrears to 2 months in arrears then you qualify for mortgage interest relief.

Villa05

Moving from 3.5 times income to 4 potentially adds a year's salary to the price of a home. If councils are buying up any semi affordable homes, will it even matter as they will be outbidding first time buyers with there money meaning they will have to tax you more to outbid you.

We really are pushing the boundaries of stupidity

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120176307#Comment_120176307

At this stage, I think we need to throw away the idea that those in power are stupid. Whilst there are certainly horrifyingly incompetent people in the government and state bureaucracy, what they are doing, to me, can only be explained by ascribing it to overall malicious and sinister intent. The state serves the ends of globalism, and globalism wants more growth.

Honestly, it's not just housing that is in crisis. Virtually all social systems are in decline due to an excess of demand. I don't see any good ending for any of this.

farmingquestion

I'm seething. The anger I have for this government is off the wall. I hate these fcukers.

I have a decent wage yet the prospect of ever owning a new home is impossible. I could afford a 2nd hand 2bed apartment but it would be around 52 sqm and old and not nice at all. It would also require me to have around 40k deposit + 5k fees + 1k at least in appliances.

Now, I do have that money. But even still, my mortgage would be 1200 a month. Add in bills and you're basically looking at half of your income just on affording the mortgage and bills. Half of the income from a stressful job just to afford a pokey matchbox. Disgusting thought.

I was looking at things a couple years ago and my mortgage now would costs 350 more per month than before. That's 700 pre tax income. That's 8500 in gross salary I would need to equal the same level of pay as 2 years ago.

I hate this government. I hope the whole thing crashes, if I go down as well, I'll take it.

Villa05

Interesting developments in Mallow,

The state is providing rapid build housing for refugees from Ukraine. Apparently the units have a 60 year life span. Would be interesting to see the cost per unit.

Appears to have progressed so quickly that locals were not consulted

Hopefully these will be a huge success and that the those increasing the price of concrete blocks/products are taking notes

https://www.corkbeo.ie/news/local-news/works-start-assessing-mallow-site-26081178

https://www.rte.ie/radio/podcasts/22204536-mallow-locals-protest-over-modular-housing-for-r/

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120176375#Comment_120176375

I recently bought a house outside of Dublin because it was that or a crumby apartment. I am, however, miserable there. It's not a bad town, and the neighbours are good people, but I am totally out of my comfort zone, away from friends an family and just lonely all the time.

If a crash were to happen tomorrow, I'd be in serious financial difficult. However, like you I'd happily face that rather than see this s**t show continue and have another generation thrown to wolves to keep this ponzi scheme alive. May it crumble.

MacronvFrugals

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120176307#Comment_120176307

Its comical Gabriel Makhlouf ie the guy who the ECB recommended Ireland not appoint is at home raising LTI limits (lifting demand) while simultaneously wanting more ECB rate rises (dampening demand).

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120176404#Comment_120176404

Other modular houses were criticised recently for costing 100k more per unit than similar on the continent.

If that's really the case then the thing to do would be to attract those providers in from there.

Villa05

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2023/0130/1352252-housing-crisis-a-critical-barrier-to-growth-ibec-warns/

Affordability appears to be there main issue, so current policy of driving up prices to "ahem" increase supply is falling short