Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

jill_valentine

Cyrus wrote: »

and do you agree they would have a much more comfortable life in wexford?

Dublin is only an hour / hour 15 away depending on where you are as well. so if you have family its an easy trip.

A fairly sizeable chunk of the population moved to Dublin in the first place for work (me included). Moving back out again is a big leap, you'd need to be very confident the work you do exists - and will always exist - before you buy a whole house out there, and most people in a position to do that were already aware of it as an option.

I've just been promoted into a role where I can work remotely for the next year at least, so now I can start looking outside, but I can tell you the housing stock in range of public transport etc isn't exactly in abundance, and if I needed childcare or anything like that I'd be banjaxed.

Longford, for example, would suit me because I don't have kids, I have secure work, and I'd be back out towards family there, but it's not exactly an economic powerhouse and there are a lot of issues around Longford town with correlated antisocial behaviour. I wouldn't be a hurry to raise kids there like.

A big part of the hyperfocus we have on Dublin comes down to how hard we've made it to live anywhere else, especially if you don't drive.

JimmyVik

Marius34 wrote: »

I'll say 3.5 income rule prevents from Bubble. Should the limits be removed? Should AirBnb be allowed to operate freely, without regulations? Should Funds allowed todo business freely in property market?
Like many regulation it has it's pros and cons.

None of those have improved things have they though.
In fact they even fcuked those things up themselves.

The government are screwing with the income limits themselves.

Aibnb is still going strong and doing a roaring trade at the moment.

Funds are still doing business freely in the property market.


So, since those moves, rents have risen, sales prices have risen. And it looks like taxes are about to rise too.


Take a bow Irish government for those 3 market interventions.

timmyntc

cnocbui wrote: »

The thought of living within your means, or putting up with any inconvenience, seems to be a mostly foreign concept.

As a business I can only afford to pay X wage - to raise it higher would require higher selling costs for our product/service, which ultimately makes us uncompetitive.

So to attract staff who dont really want to work in Dublin due to cost-of-living, I either have to raise my prices and risk being put out of business, or convince people to move to Ireland from abroad to work here. Although after a decade or so most immigrants discover the situation and some move on to somewhere cheaper also.

Ireland's spiralling cost of housing will make us non-competitive as a place to do business. So job-creating through FDI will dry up, and some of business that are here currently will lose profits (maybe even some cutbacks in staff)
Which means less taxes for the state. It's bad news for everyone

Amadan Dubh

Zenify wrote: »

G7 set to seal a deal on corporation tax by Friday. This will pave the way for G20 and OECD talks. First 3 to click link get a free read of the FT article.

G7 is close to deal on taxation of world’s largest companies - https://on.ft.com/2TcMEWy via @FT

If it hampers growth of MNCs in Ireland and therefore demand for rentals, very much welcome for me. The government won't do enough by themselves so the market does need this push.

Marius34

JimmyVik wrote: »

None of those have improved things have they though.
In fact they even fcuked those things up themselves.

The government are screwing with the income limits themselves.

Aibnb is still going strong and doing a roaring trade at the moment.

Funds are still doing business freely in the property market.


So, since those moves, rents have risen, sales prices have risen. And it looks like taxes are about to rise too.


Take a bow Irish government for those 3 market interventions.

It prevents from boom and bust. Last boom and bust cost whey to much for tax payers, to afford it again.
But as I said most of regulations has pros and cons.

Cyrus

jill_valentine wrote: »

A fairly sizeable chunk of the population moved to Dublin in the first place for work (me included). Moving back out again is a big leap, you'd need to be very confident the work you do exists - and will always exist - before you buy a whole house out there, and most people in a position to do that were already aware of it as an option.

I've just been promoted into a role where I can work remotely for the next year at least, so now I can start looking outside, but I can tell you the housing stock in range of public transport etc isn't exactly in abundance, and if I needed childcare or anything like that I'd be banjaxed.

Longford, for example, would suit me because I don't have kids, I have secure work, and I'd be back out towards family there, but it's not exactly an economic powerhouse and there are a lot of issues around Longford town with correlated antisocial behaviour. I wouldn't be a hurry to raise kids there like.

A big part of the hyperfocus we have on Dublin comes down to how hard we've made it to live anywhere else, especially if you don't drive.

why would you be banjaxed for childcare in longford

and not driving, unless you have a disability that prevents you from being able to drive, is an eminently solvable problem.

cnocbui

timmyntc wrote: »

As a business I can only afford to pay X wage - to raise it higher would require higher selling costs for our product/service, which ultimately makes us uncompetitive.

So to attract staff who dont really want to work in Dublin due to cost-of-living, I either have to raise my prices and risk being put out of business, or convince people to move to Ireland from abroad to work here. Although after a decade or so most immigrants discover the situation and some move on to somewhere cheaper also.

Ireland's spiralling cost of housing will make us non-competitive as a place to do business. So job-creating through FDI will dry up, and some of business that are here currently will lose profits (maybe even some cutbacks in staff)
Which means less taxes for the state. It's bad news for everyone

Don't set up business in Dublin. I have long thought one way for governments to deal with the single attractor problem - France is even worse, with it being Paris, and nothing but Paris - would be to scale corporate tax by proximity to population centres so that the further away you are from major population centres, the greater the reduction in tax.

In other words it wouldn't be a tax penalty, but a tax incentive.

The government should have set about building a Dublin scale hospital near Shannon airport, with nearby family accommodation, 20 years ago, to alleviate the 20 years of bed shortages at Limerick Regional and to stop this inhumane business of so many people having to travel to Dublin for specialist treatment. That location would let it serve Cork and Galway catchments as well as Limerick.

Specialist pediatic nurses and the like, would then have an alternative to living in Dublin.

Villa05

Social housing has never been delivered using state employees, rather contracted out to builders






3.5 rule does not dictate price. investment funds backed up by unsustainable long term leases from the government set price thus further inflating the bubble
Air B&B practically operates freely as there is little implementation of regs

Investment funds control the market in our highest demand areas. Not good

M_Murphy57

Cyrus wrote: »

why would you be banjaxed for childcare in longford

and not driving, unless you have a disability that prevents you from being able to drive, is an eminently solvable problem.

I think he means childcare if commuting to dublin. Eg in greystones the creches open 7-7 (and many kids spent 12 hour days there) because it was at least 60+ minutes commute to centre. If you had a 2 hour drive to wexford each way, plus a 9-5 day how do you manage childcare?

Cyrus

M_Murphy57 wrote: »

I think he means childcare if commuting to dublin. Eg in greystones the creches open 7-7 (and many kids spent 12 hour days there) because it was at least 60+ minutes commute to centre. If you had a 2 hour drive to wexford each way, plus a 9-5 day how do you manage childcare?

got you.

yes i agree that would be problematic.

timmyntc

Villa05 wrote: »

3.5 rule does not dictate price. investment funds backed up by unsustainable long term leases from the government set price thus creating a bubble

Yes but cant you see how the 3.5 income rule prevents the massive price inflation we would see otherwise? If people could get 100% mortgages with no ceiling, given our large demand for houses prices would skyrocket. If you think we're in a bubble now, without that borrowing restriction we would be 100 times worse off.

Marius34

Villa05 wrote: »

Social housing has never been delivered this way




3.5 rule does not dictate price. investment funds backed up by unsustainable long term leases from the government set price thus creating a bubble

what? private residents forms much bigger volume in transactions, than Funds. Some in here even say that even small HTB grant increases prices.

Wanderer78

timmyntc wrote: »

Yes but cant you see how the 3.5 income rule prevents the massive price inflation we would see otherwise? If people could get 100% mortgages with no ceiling, given our large demand for houses prices would skyrocket. If you think we're in a bubble now, without that borrowing restriction we would be 100 times worse off.

our property markets have found a way around this, via large investment groups, that do have access to credit markets, this is an element of why we re still experiencing inflation

Ace2007

Ace2007 wrote: »

But there are nurses, teachers, garda all in longford, All getting paid the same as someone in Dublin but with a lower cost of living. Maybe they are the smart ones?

What exactly do you want?

There are literally thousands of highly skilled and highly paid individuals in Ireland who can afford to paid large sums of monies for houses.

You have this sense of entitlement -

This is someone saying that Gardai, nurses and teachers are entitled to want to own in the city where they work. All of those jobs should migrate to Longford.

To hell or to Longford. Basically.

Ace2007

fvp4 wrote: »

This is someone saying that Gardai, nurses and teachers are entitled to want to own in the city where they work. All of those jobs should migrate to Longford.

To hell or to Longford. Basically.

Previous poster eluded to that if things don't change these workers would leave the country - kinda funny that they would leave Ireland for work and new life, but wouldnt' relocated within Ireland for work and house that they can afford.

Amadan Dubh

cnocbui wrote: »

Don't set up business in Dublin. I have long thought one way for governments to deal with the single attractor problem - France is even worse, with it being Paris, and nothing but Paris - would be to scale corporate tax by proximity to population centres so that the further away you are from major population centres, the greater the reduction in tax.

In other words it wouldn't be a tax penalty, but a tax incentive.

The government should have set about building a Dublin scale hospital near Shannon airport, with nearby family accommodation, 20 years ago, to alleviate the 20 years of bed shortages at Limerick Regional and to stop this inhumane business of so many people having to travel to Dublin for specialist treatment. That location would let it serve Cork and Galway catchments as well as Limerick.

Specialist pediatic nurses and the like, would then have an alternative to living in Dublin.

Great comment and I think it touches on a big issue not addressed during the last 10 years of growth as well; infrastructure investment and town planning. I know we are where we are now without these things getting much focus the last 10 years but it would be borderline criminal to waste this crisis and not try to develop the rest of the country post-pandemic. For me, a lot of places outside Dublin don't even look like they got much out of the Celtic Tiger, let alone the last 10 years - Cork and Limerick are two major cities and yet look very run down in many parts. This may be a bit extreme but I feel a lot of our growth the last 20 years could easily be lost (Celtic Tiger growth turned out to be artificial and the last few years only look good due to MNCs using us for tax purposes) so I think it is essential we look to reduce our economic reliance on what happens in Dublin. Our niche offering could be this quality of life offering without compromising on a corporate job - one could have access to the countryside/the sea with affordable housing and communities which are great for raising children, but still have the ability to be connected with flexi-hubs and high quality internet as well as excellent transport to larger cities. Of course, small businesses would be able to set up to facilitate this growth outside of Dublin.

Things like government built housing but also incentives for developing housing and infrastructure outside of Dublin, in other towns and cities. National broadband is obviously essential but also government investment in infrastructure to get companies to operate and people to live outside of Dublin. For example, tax incentives for companies to implement as much WFH as possible; set up co-working hubs in towns; subsidise childcare; sports and recreation grants; facilitate better sustainable transport in towns (i.e. encourage cycling/electric scooters and walking in and around towns - around towns especially as a lot of housing estates sprawling outside of towns are flanked by dangerous and busy roads in and out of those towns); more ambitious but a high speed rail network upgrade to make Dublin accessible from towns and cities in much faster time.

Announcements like these are exactly what we want to see;

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/companies/property-company-noco-signs-hybrid-workspace-deals-1.4573490

Property company NoCo signs hybrid workspace deals

Projet allows staff to access more than 100 remote working locations in a single network

Property company NoCo has signed a number of deals with a range of co-working providers across the country to create one Ireland’s largest hybrid workspace network.

The deal allows workers to access more than 100 remote working locations in a single network, providing companies of any size and scale with a solution for staff who want to move to a more flexible work model. Companies can access open or shared workspaces or have their own bespoke dedicated office network created for them.

Among the partners signed up to the new network are Huckletree, MSpace and Republic of Work, along with the Premier Business Centres Group.

Locations include towns and cities such as Dublin, Tralee, Naas, Portlaoise, Newtownmountkennedy, Carlow, Cork and Kilkenny. NoCo is setting its sights on the UK and Europe, planning to grow its workspace network there before the end of the year.

The property company said it was already seeing significant demand from some of large professional services firms, along with estblished hybrid-working companies such as telecommunications firm Welltel and managed legal solutions provider Johnson Hana.

“We are delighted to partner with NoCo, whose objectives in supporting flexible and highly-productive work, aligns closely with our operating model,” said Johnson Hana’s chief executive Dan Fox.

“Johnson Hana has lawyers registered on our platform who are based all across the country, and through the NoCo network we can now support them with an appropriate workplace environment – closer to both where they live, and our client sites. NoCo provides an innovative solution to a constantly evolving working landscape. We can scale our office requirements to suit client demand.”

timmyntc

Ace2007 wrote: »

Previous poster eluded to that if things don't change these workers would leave the country - kinda funny that they would leave Ireland for work and new life, but wouldnt' relocated within Ireland for work and house that they can afford.

You assume that there are jobs a plenty all over Ireland. There are not.
Most people move to Dublin in the first place for work. If it was so easy to get good jobs down the country, why would there be such a strong flow of people into Dublin for work?

Cyrus

timmyntc wrote: »

You assume that there are jobs a plenty all over Ireland. There are not.
Most people move to Dublin in the first place for work. If it was so easy to get good jobs down the country, why would there be such a strong flow of people into Dublin for work?

no point in having a 'good' job if you are worse off.

Amadan Dubh

Cyrus wrote: »

firstly we need to forget about the obsession with 2008 prices, it was 13 years ago and at some point id imagine we will exceed those prices, it isnt automatically a bad thing.

I disagree and would say it is necessarily a bad thing unless we had some strong evidence to the contrary. For example, salaries have not increased by much since that time and mortgage borrowing is limited to 3.5 times your salary which would indicate the lack of affordability for individuals at current levels. Also, the IT and other cheerleaders are the ones obsessed with Celtic Tiger property levels as they use them to justify the increases of the last 9 years!

Cyrus wrote: »

secondly, what the market at 1m and slightly above is showing you is the CB limits kicking in. People buying at 1m-1.5m are in the main salaried couples like everyone else, they just have higher salaries. They are still bound by the 3.5x rule and there is also the fear that if something happens to a very well paid job will you get the same again somewher else so a lot of people wont borrow their absolute maximum as once you get to mortgage levels over 600k the monthly repayments are eye opening.

That is the part of the market that hasnt inflated as much as lower ends as there are less people in it and the CB rules is stopping them from going beyond what they can afford. which is a good thing.

Even high earners, outside of the 0.01% on hundreds of 000s, let's say 200k p.a. combined, they are still limited to a maximum borrowing of 700k so they would need to have at least 300k between savings and equity in their current home in order to buy the 1m house, let alone the 1.5m house.

From a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation, house prices in this higher price category have increased 50-55% since 2012, which is not as high but I still think there is a big affordability ceiling and my own anecdotal experience is that generally haircuts on houses above 1m will be required, of varying degrees. The older people who have in no way paid anything close to what their house is apparently worth are the ones who will take the biggest haircut.

That being said, there's 78000 millionaires in Ireland!

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/number-of-irish-millionaires-rises-by-3-000-to-nearly-78-000-1.3824256

Villa05

Marius34 wrote:

what? private residents forms much bigger volume in transactions, than Funds. Some in here even say that even small HTB grant increases prices.

They may do nationally, How about high demand areas in cities. Dublin apartments are effectively monopolised by funds now and there becoming increasingly active in houses in the burbs and beyond.. The stamp duty changes will do nothing to stop the tide.

The UK set there's at 15% and it was found to be ineffective against these funds and have further increased it. You don't hear this on Irish media. Politicians are just allowed spout the same oul line

We have put a 10 fold increase on their stamp duty

Nobody questions it, or brings up that 15% was found to be ineffective in the UK

Potential Buyers in these areas are priced out and rental inflation is forcing them further and further away to buy, so we see much higher inflation in Dublin Satellite counties.

Yes its a little bit different this time, but the outcomes and results are very familiar from our recent history.

The few things different are the rocketing national debt and people's knowledge that if you don't pay your mortgage, you can keep it for at least a decade by playing the system.
Would you like to be going to poorer countries than us with a begging bowl because we messed up again with property.
That's where we are heading

Cyrus

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

From a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation, house prices in this higher price category have increased 50-55% since 2012, which is not as high but I still think there is a big affordability ceiling and my own anecdotal experience is that generally haircuts on houses above 1m will be required, of varying degrees. The older people who have in no way paid anything close to what their house is apparently worth are the ones who will take the biggest haircut.

That being said, there's 78000 millionaires in Ireland!

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/number-of-irish-millionaires-rises-by-3-000-to-nearly-78-000-1.3824256

like everything else, houses in this bracket that are in walk in condition are selling quickly and good properties in excellent locations are selling quickly,

those chancing their arm are sitting there.

cunningham road / knocknacree park in dalkey is a prime example, one house at 1.75m sold in a few weeks, others at 1.5 and 1.9 have been for sale longer and are sitting there.

Ace2007

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Even high earners, outside of the 0.01% on hundreds of 000s, let's say 200k p.a. combined, they are still limited to a maximum borrowing of 700k so they would need to have at least 300k between savings and equity in their current home in order to buy the 1m house, let alone the 1.5m house.

If they are on 200k combined in secure jobs, they'll get the exemption and so can borrow 900k.

JimmyVik

timmyntc wrote: »

You assume that there are jobs a plenty all over Ireland. There are not.
Most people move to Dublin in the first place for work. If it was so easy to get good jobs down the country, why would there be such a strong flow of people into Dublin for work?

Most people who grow up in a rural area cant wait to GTFO
You wont find too many of them looking to move back in a hurry.
I know several people who moved from the city to the countryside.
They loved it for a year or two but it didnt take.
Country living is not for everyone, especially if you spend half your life commuting.

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

Country living is not for everyone, especially if you spend half your life commuting.

Moving back to work in Dublin is not going to solve that problem for the vast majority.

timmyntc

JimmyVik wrote: »

Most people who grow up in a rural area cant wait to GTFO
You wont find too many of them looking to move back in a hurry.
I know several people who moved from the city to the countryside.
They loved it for a year or two but it didnt take.
Country living is not for everyone, especially if you spend half your life commuting.

Down the country doesnt mean countryside, just anywhere outside the Pale.

Plenty of people would be happy to live in their towns outside Dublin than have to move up for work. But if you want a good salary you have to go to Dublin - thats where the jobs are. Which is fair enough - but given the jobs are there you should be at least able to afford to live there.

Cyrus

timmyntc wrote: »

But if you want a good salary you have to go to Dublin - thats where the jobs are. Which is fair enough - but given the jobs are there you should be at least able to afford to live there.

suggests people arent doing their sums then, its not a good salary if you have a worse standard of living.

Marius34

Villa05 wrote: »

They may do nationally, How about high demand areas in cities. Dublin apartments are effectively monopolised by funds now and there becoming increasingly active in houses in the burbs and beyond.. The stamp duty changes will do nothing to stop the tide.

The UK set there's at 15% and it was found to be ineffective against these funds and have further increased it. You don't hear this on Irish media. Politicians are just allowed spout the same oul line

We have put a 10 fold increase on their stamp duty

Nobody questions it, or brings up that 15% was found to be ineffective in the UK

Potential Buyers in these areas are priced out and rental inflation is forcing them further and further away to buy, so we see much higher inflation in Dublin Satellite counties.

Yes its a little bit different this time, but the outcomes and results are very familiar from our recent history.

The few things different are the rocketing national debt and people's knowledge that if you don't pay your mortgage, you can keep it for at least a decade by playing the system.
Would you like to be going to poorer countries than us with a begging bowl because we messed up again with property.
That's where we are heading

But most people I hear are looking to buy house, not the apartments.
So it's funds regulate house price? HTB grants has no impact on price?

cnocbui

timmyntc wrote: »

You assume that there are jobs a plenty all over Ireland. There are not.
Most people move to Dublin in the first place for work. If it was so easy to get good jobs down the country, why would there be such a strong flow of people into Dublin for work?

There are universities in Cork, limerick and Galway, not to mention hospitals, dental clinics, airports. I think you are exagerating a bit. My ex is on 2.3 times the national average salary, and lives in Limerick.

Ace2007

cnocbui wrote: »

There are universities in Cork, limerick and Galway, not to mention hospitals, dental clinics, airports. I think you are exagerating a bit. My ex is on 2.3 times the national average salary, and lives in Limerick.

Would be be your ex if he was on 4.7 times :pac::pac:

timmyntc

cnocbui wrote: »

There are universities in Cork, limerick and Galway, not to mention hospitals, dental clinics, airports. I think you are exagerating a bit. My ex is on 2.3 times the national average salary, and lives in Limerick.

And? Do you expect all the hospital staff, dentists, airport staff to move en mass from Dublin? Because they are the only people who could move from Dublin to those places and work in those jobs, and Dublin badly needs them too.

Not near a workable solution.