Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475368#Comment_118475368

SF's plan to avoid competing with FTB's is to remove the Help to buy scheme, cant see how that will be a vote winner for them, seems like they want to force as many people into social housing as possible.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475019#Comment_118475019

Times move on an occupations that would have been considered top jobs back then would no longer be considered top jobs.

you also need to consider that resource is more scarce as it has become more expensive and complicated to build and in demand areas have got closer to max capacity unless you increase the density.

high interest rates resulted in lower price differential between between a bog standard house and an expensive house. All that has really happened as rates got lower is that people have been able to increase the principal amount which has driven house prices higher.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475372#Comment_118475372

In an ideal world you would have builders providing private housing during times of growth and during times of a recession you would have the government step in and provide social/affordable housing so that builders didn't leave the industry. This would result in a consistent supply of housing. If this happened after '08 we would not be in the situation we are in now trying to play catch up with supply. That is in an ideal world but we don't live in it and after '08 even if the government wanted to build social/affordable housing they would have been prevented from doing so by the IMF and EU as all that they saw at the time was austerity and couldn't see that government spending during a recession makes it shorter and less severe.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475415#Comment_118475415

SF are only interested in sound bites to attract voters who think that they will be able to solve the housing crisis. But the reality is that unless they can build houses for 150k a piece then their policy is just as flawed as the other political parties. At the end of the day unless supply increases all that any political party will do is increase supply in one area such as social housing at the expensive of another area such as FTB's.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475415#Comment_118475415

Social housing has become a dirty word in the last 20-30 years, but it shouldnt be that way.

Plenty of areas that are desirable now would have been corpo built back in the day, with some of most of stock since sold to occupants. The problem is that social housing has a stigma now, and also the poor enforcement against anti-social behaviour.

But the reality is you cannot leave it to the private sector to sort, they only build when profitable. Govt built housing needs to continue based on population projections, not profitability.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475422#Comment_118475422

I agree, except that plenty of occupations that are still essential and important have been relegated to the forever renting sector. Teachers, nurses, gardai and more all would struggle to get on the housing ladder nowadays in plenty of areas, and its only going to get worse. Even pre-boom you could get a house comfortably working those kinds of jobs, not so much anymore.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475292#Comment_118475292

People with no experience and a heap of children have been doing exactly that for decades. There are numerous tv shows about it. You can learn anything from a youtube video now too. People nowadays think anything difficult has never been difficult and overcome before.

Buying a house has never been easy. Look how many people had to emigrate in years gone by. You dont see much of it anymore, but there was a time not too long ago that when you said goodbye to a family member getting on the ferry just to the uk that you wouldnt see them for years. And you only got a phone call the odd time because it was a days wages for a phone call if you even had a phone in the house.

My Dad had to go to Germany to work on the buildings for 6 months of every year. 3 months there 3 months here and so on. We used to wait at the phone box in the town at 8pm on a Friday night praying someone wouldnt be making a phone call. Eventually he was able to afford a house but he was in his late 40s by then and had missed us 6 months of every year and the interest rates would make your eyes water. And then I had uncles and family friends who went further afield and werent seen again for over a decade, even if they were seen again. And that was only the 80s.

fliball123

For all of the people with out a house looking to buy how would you change things from what is currently going on? We should maybe try and get away from the blame game, No one owning a property did anything bar voting to make the conditions we see today in the property market

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475528#Comment_118475528

Improve the training system for tradespeople & increase capacity for new trainees. We have a dearth of tradesmen in this country, and with a high average age its only going to get much, much worse. Looking at proper trade schools like they have in some European countries could be a good model with good capacity, which is what we crucially need.

More resources to planning departments nationwide (& ABP). No reason planning decisions should take months and months.

A proper enforced vacant site tax - with a rate high enough to outstrip asset price inflation, and actual penalties for non-payment.

A proper vacant unit tax - similar to above but for vacant buildings/homes

Possibly a VAT cut on new builds and/or materials - won't fix things as its fundamentally a supply problem, but would help alleviate massive materials inflation as of late

Social housing reform (lol I know, pipedream) - anti-social behaviour leading to financial penalties and ultimately eviction. Same thing for non-payment and refusal to engage with the LA.

Streamlined repossession process for mortgage defaults - it simply should not be the case that refusal to engage with the lender can see you not pay a cent for years. You should be out within 6 months of non-payment (& non-engagement)

There is ultimately no silver bullets to fix things, its gone far too far now for any quick fixes to arise (except for economic meltdown), but plenty of small reforms would help things to function more normally in the long term.

straight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475003#Comment_118475003

Ya, house building cost is crazy. Luckily I got in at the end of the 2013 regs. I built it entirely from savings which was not easy but definitely worth it. It's like the Government insisting on everybody buying a rolls Royce. This is fairly basic stuff to understand like. That's why if a second hand house is cheaper than the cost of replacement then it is a good deal. Of course the cost of replacement is too high but it is what it is. Environmental regs are not going to go away I'm afraid. Some of them are totally non sensical I know.

Taylor365

The rate of people NOT buying avocado toast:

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475076#Comment_118475076

The same applies whether it's average or the mean. What we really need is the incomes of the under 35's,

However with home ownership collapsing and rents at 40% above celtic tiger highs affordability has to be a major issue

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475711#Comment_118475711

i think you also need to introduce a tax on rezoned land to pay for infrastructure. This would be separate to a vacant site tax and would only apply when the land becomes zoned for housing. The tax should be high enough to prevent people speculating and buying land hoping it will be rezoned as this only pushes up land costs of new builds.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475138#Comment_118475138

I was referring to government borrowing

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475998#Comment_118475998

so those over 35 and without a house should be just discounted because of age? I did do a whole bit on what you would be paying back on a mortgage buying a house at the average house price from 2021 and it worked out that you would be currently paying back about 1/5th of your take home pay assuming you and your partner are on the median wage.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475998#Comment_118475998

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475064#Comment_118475064

Not an ideal solution as usually it's our best that leave with skills that other countries value and which we should be valuing.

It would also be evidence of a failed state if our people were leaving because of housing when one thing we have in abundance is under developed land close to our cities

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118476046#Comment_118476046

No I agree its not ideal and yeap we do lose some talented people but it is an option that has been used for well over a century, also we have a plus net migration figure for the last 6/7 years so Ireland must have something that is keeping more people here and attracting others to live here so a failed state is a bit of an exaggeration

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118474263#Comment_118474263

I'm not sure those houses even exist anymore. The market is significantly worse now than it was in 2019. Not to mention its near impossible to get work done and prices for that have also skyrocketed.

Beigepaint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118476065#Comment_118476065

You keep putting forward fudgy mostly bad solutions. The past is over and recommending our best and brightest head off to London is bad for the country.

You do realise a better world is possible, if only the vested interests could be overcome.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475233#Comment_118475233

If they are bidding they are not anymore a price setters. Their price will depend on Joe public highest bid.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118476318#Comment_118476318

Where did I say that?? I am simply stating fact that we always had a culture of emigration. I also stated that this trend seems to have bucked in the last 7/8 years where more people are staying and people are coming into the country from different nations. This is also one of the reasons why housing is limited currently with the size of our population growing by more than 1/2 million over the last decade, this problem was not just because we stopped building. Also if you want to completely ignore the past then your doomed to repeat mistakes that have been made. I agree with the vested interests by the way I think its a crime what the likes of the vulture funds are getting away with. So my solution of building more houses is fudgy? Really? The only way to solve the issue building to meet the current demand even if that is over a long period of time.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118476318#Comment_118476318

Can you please articulate your who you consider have vested interests?

I’m curious as it could mean current property owners, the government, developers, small landlords, institutional landlords, estate agents etc

mcsean2163

When talking about houses it's important to consider that not everyone has the option live at home with their parents and save. For some couples, practically their entire wage is disappearing in rent.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118476832#Comment_118476832

Or if they have to pay childcare costs because they don't have family near by.

jo187

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118463596#Comment_118463596

Ha ha, it's my 8 euro subscription to netflix is why I can't buy a house. If you think about it it was a least a fiver to rent one video from xtra-vision back in the day so netflix is great value.

Amadan Dubh

Our housing minister writing in the Examiner yesterday on how the Housing For All will provide a better future for the people of the country. A load of waffle and quite simply and worryingly he literally just states the targets of the plan in terms of numbers with no real substance behind them. It's like he's trying the convince himself the targets would even be achievable. Pathetic Minister, quite clearly out of his depth and likely to usher in a SF housing minister if these targets are not met in the next 2/3 years.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-40784751.html

Bass Reeves

There are 4-5 separate issues as to why people struggle to get to buy a house.

Regulation has increased building prices substantially. It has increased the standard of houses and there running costs. However running costs of these houses is not as substantially less as many believe. A Ber C or D house is not as substantially more expensive to run as an A or B house. It's when you get down to E or F houses you will notice the difference in running costs.

There is definately a problem with the cost of site's in larger Urban area's. This can often be due to derelict or semi derelict houses owned by individuals who are unwilling to either do up the houses or sell them. A proper property or vacant house tax could force these to be released. However I not sure it will succeed. It's too easy to put an adult child's PPS number against a house.

Houses gone out of commission. These would be houses that have had older people living in them or have been vacant a long time. Single glazed or aluminium windows, bathrooms gone into disrepair or not n extension added onto the house 30-40+ years ago, no or virtually no central heating. Complete electrical and plumbing overhaul needed, dampness and insulation issues needed addressing. Problem is these houses need to be bought up to Ber A rating, planning may be required and planners will put stipulation on features to be retained or modernization to look the same as orginal features. This adds to costs. Doing up houses like this is as or more expensive than new builds.

Overhead shops and pubs were living area's 20+ years ago in urban areas now because of fire regulations and insurance costs it's impossible to develop these area's. Allow business and individual ( most tax efficient for them) who make these habitable again to maybe claim back vat and/ or write the cost off against rental or personal tax over a timeframe.

Finance, builders are finding it impossible to get competitive finance to scale up production. In the case of apartments this is only coming from REITs who finance the complete project. In the case of housing it is preventing some builders from building houses.

Labour is one of the biggest issues. Its costs has escalated to higher than Celtic Tiger peak costs and we are nowhere near reaching building requirements at present. Of the building trades people I know who's chikdren are between 20-30 none of there children have done trades, three are doing QS courses, one has a sports course done, one is a mechanical engineer, one is doing building management, two are fitters, two work in Factories after third level courses. Children from a farming background were also a source of building labour again these are going towards engineering or teaching qualifications. Even if we pushed apprenticeship at present it would be hard to get young adults into the wet trades.

Builders/ developers, we lost many after the last recession. None have been replaced. At present as well I see a few smaller developers on smaller rural projects sitting on small developments completed as they expect the price of the houses to rise substantially over the next twelve months.

Finally there is a core of young adults who expect housing to be supplied at well below the costs of production. They have large discressionary spending habits. They slip from college to jobs and on and expect to have a lifestyle where they do not really need to save. The 10% mortgage deposit is minimum target. It's not impossible to save 20-30% of a mortgage as we had to do 30+years ago. While 2.5 times one income was the mortgage you got in the 70's and 2.5+1 in the 80's and 90's houses had a large gap between that and cost. Most people were saving 20%+as a mortgage, and guess what very few single people in until there late 30's or 40's bought houses by themselves. On saving yes the f@@king coffee counts. The basic premise with saving is mind the pennies the pounds look after themselves. A takeaway coffee by a couple each day going to work costs 1500 euro+( If the do it going to work they do it on holidays). Changing a phone every two years costs 2-300/ year or if you buy it within a plan that phone plan costs 6-700+/ year. TV subscription ( Netflix's, Disney+, NOW, or a fire stick sky 80-150each), weekend away Ireland or abroad 2-500 euro,.abroad, holiday abroad 400-2k, stag or hen weekends 200-500 euro, going to a wedding 300-500+.

And then we have wanting to choose where you lived. How many in there early thirties could have bought a houses or apartment in the period from 2911-2016 period but choose not to. You did not need a mortgage to finance a 25-100 k apartment or house if you put your mind to it. A CU loan and a bit of savings would get you over the line even on **** incomes back then.

Villa05

Timing Belt linked median income by age profile. From that data it would be very difficult for the under 30's to be mortgage ready. Alot has been made of "frivellous" spending by this age group. Given the income figures and the high rents, its hard to see how some people's perceptions of young people's spending can be backed up with the facts.

In the past frivellous spending was heavily concentrated on alcohol and cigarettes, yet despite increasing population consumption of both has been falling and where it has been consumed lower cost alternatives are consumed at closer to acceptable levels, off licence and e cigs. I would expect many pubs not to reopen after covid

Also recreation activity has switched from drinking yourself unconscious to fitness and healthy pursuits. This can be only positive for your career while the spending on drink in the past would be a negative on your career

Camping is a growth industry and a considerable saving on a weekend away in our Irish hotels

One would imagine that youth would be carrying a certain degree of Debt from college and possibly car loan also

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118480051#Comment_118480051

It has always been difficult for under 30’s to be mortgage ready without help from parents etc. as they are generally only starting out in their careers after years studying and getting work experience.

younger People will always have different spending habits to older generations that doesn’t mean they everyone in the younger generation is unable save or are unwise with money. It’s just they spend differently to older generations.

saying that the youth of today will have debt from college is irrelevant as previous generations also had costs for 3rd level education (prior to 1996 you had to pay for 3rd level education)

For myself the option of going to college in a different city was never an option because of the cost and even if I wanted to study something that was available locally it wasn’t an option. I am sure that is still the case for lots of people today and not every student is living in expensive campus accommodation.

saying one generation had it easier than another is just a waste of time as circumstances were different. It has always been difficult to get on the property ladder in Ireland whether it was low pay, high rates, high taxes or the cost of houses. The only time it was relatively easier was in the Celtic tigger era because banks would lend but look how that ended.

Villa05

I agree that it's difficult for under 30's to be mortgage ready at anytime, however a collapse in over 30's home ownership between 2004 and now is a very noticeable statistic. 2004 was pre 100% mortgages and supply surge of the celtic tiger

What changed since 2004?

Sky high rents, College registration fees have quadrupled. Lack of accomodation may mean a car is essential.

Jobbridge for graduates to work for nothing. Weaker terms and conditions and pay for new starts

Lets leave the generations out of this argument for a while. The same applies to the 16% who lost there jobs during financial crash caused by property hence the measuring of mortgage arrears in periods of 10 year plus. The generational gap is just a distraction as thats where its most visible and the joining of the dots to reveal the true problem is discouraged.

The financial crisis was caused by the financialization of housing by Wall Street. The "recovery" has increased this process. Expect the same outcome