Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Jmc25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118473170#Comment_118473170

"Leave and go to a country you can buy a house in" is usually closely linked with "how are Sinn Fein on 30+ per cent in the polls".

Generally, people get a little more conservative as they get older and buy into the system. Owning a house and paying a mortgage is a big factor in that buy in. We've now got 35-40 year olds who essentially can't afford to buy into the status quo and the establishment attitude towards them (as they perceive it) is, "Actually, Ireland's great and if you don't think so, then leave and go to a country where you can afford to buy a house or shut up moaning."

And then they wonder why SF are surging ....

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118472903#Comment_118472903

You have been pulled before on your affordability calculations, but continue to drop it in to the discussion at various intervals. The report from yesterday titled the Collapse in homeownership rates for under 30's gives a clue to where the flaws in your argument lay.

You use average salary stats. The issue with these is that the average fails to capture the fact that pay rates and employment terms and conditions changed substantially for people employed pre crash and post crash. This feeds in greatly to the current ftb demographic.

With lower pay and less secure terms of employment, the ftb demographic have to contend with rents 40% higher than celtic tiger peak. This greatly impacts their ability to save for a deposit and get their finances mortgage ready.

Household income stats would suggest that a typical couple both on median salary or above would be in the top 30% household earners. Of that cohort a significant majority would be homeowners. The pool of people that can afford to buy at current prices is small and reducing. This will continue as house price inflation outpace general inflation by 2.5:1

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118464259#Comment_118464259

Genuine question - if your parents were in their 20s now and "worked there(sic) asses off", would they be able to afford anywhere close to what they have now?

No. No they would not. No amount of "honest hard work" will get you anywhere close to what it got in the past. And you can spare us all the guff about outside toilets etc - complaining that houses nowadays have inside toilets and central heating as some kind of luxury is like saying a homeless man on the streets of dublin today is better off than the king of england 400 years ago, because the king of england never had a smartphone.

Times change, and what is a normal house now will seem luxurious 30 years ago - but you have to look at these things relative to the time they came from (i.e. look at irish houses for sale now, relative to modern prices and the cost of building them)

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118472903#Comment_118472903

Runaway property prices are the greatest cause of the borrowing this country is accumulating. The government's doing the borrowing are the greatest cause of these Runaway prices

straight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118473444#Comment_118473444

Yes they would. I think house prices are quite reasonable and in many cases they are cheaper than the cost of replacement. It's just that alot of people are not willing to make compromises anymore it seems. Plenty people buying houses every day in this country. Our prices have not risen to the same extent as the rest of the world due to our stricter lending policy. It has never been easy to buy property.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118473751#Comment_118473751

lol. Okay - so what exactly is it your parents do that would make them fare better than most of the under 30s in this country today?

Or is this just this notion you have that all 30 somethings nowadays spend all their money on avocado toast?

Villa05

"Our prices have not risen to the same extent as the rest of the world due to our stricter lending policy"

This statement is flawed

Price is dictated moreso by what the state and investment funds will pay rather than jo/Anne Public and the suffocation of supply

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118473751#Comment_118473751

I remember a few years ago there were two old semi cottages for sale near us.

One had been done up. Nice but not actually that modern at all, but walk in condition and the garden was lovely. The other had single glazed windows and an old range and all the door frames etc were falling apart. Garden was a bit of a jungle Basically the place had never had any love.

There were no bids on the neglected house. The other house sold for €310k. Myself and my brothers bid €120k for the neglected one. After another 2 months it was accepted.

When we got possession of the house we spent €45k bringing it back to life. And then sold it for €345k.

People were only interested in the walk in.

straight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118473840#Comment_118473840

Read my comment again but slowly this time.

straight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118473856#Comment_118473856

I never mentioned anything about avocado toast. All my cousin's, neighbours friends are buying houses. Not easy for them but it never was.

straight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118473990#Comment_118473990

Well done. There is still great opportunities out there.

Beigepaint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118473990#Comment_118473990

Cool story bro. Totally irrelevant since you haven’t mentioned the year, financial conditions etc.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118473501#Comment_118473501

I presume you are talking about private debt, because Government debt is about €150,000 per income tax payer and is because of unsustainable public sector numbers, salaries and pensions, and of course the bleeding heart socialism that makes the social welfare spend a source of pride, rather than abject fear.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118474159#Comment_118474159

It was significantly easier in the past - but you seem to think instead that people in the past were more frugal and all the unaffordability problems nowadays are caused by picky people with champagne goals but cider budgets or something along those lines. It's total nonsense of course.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118473936#Comment_118473936

"Price is dictated moreso by what the state and investment funds will pay rather than jo/Anne Public and the suffocation of supply"

that's simply not true. Lending policies, bank lending limits, Demands/Supplies, Unemployment, Income, Wealth, etc.. has high impact on property price.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118474212#Comment_118474212

The only time it was significantly easier was in the Celtic tiger era when banks would lend 100% to basically anyone.

Back in the 70’s you could buy with one income but that was because women had to give up work when married.

in the 80’s you were lucky to have a job and had high interest rates. The value of the property was not the issue it was the ability to repay. The only exact opposite of what is happening today thanks to low interest rates.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118474200#Comment_118474200

Thats one was 2019 in North Dublin.

Have also done renovations several times before on places people didnt want to buy and it worked out OK for us.

We did look at one in 2020 too but we couldnt make the numbers work and then covid hit so we decided not to.

My brother has spotted one just recently in North Dublin at the moment and we are doing numbers on that to see what to bid. There is one bid about 50% under asking on it since November.

Just making the point that there are houses out there that noone wants because they want a walk in.

To be fair though I thnk if I was buying to live in, id like a walk in too, but if I couldnt afford a walk in I wouldnt be afraid of the work on a doer upper either.

straight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118474212#Comment_118474212

U are of course entirely entitled to your own opinion.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118474212#Comment_118474212

When saving for my first house, I was frugal to the point of making a duck's sphincter seem like a sieve. The mortgage rate was quite something.

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118473751#Comment_118473751

You do understand the cost of replacement being so high is because houses are so much more expensive to build now hence making them much less affordable to the average person yeah? Building regs, professional fees, land prices, planning requirements, utility charges, energy efficiency requirements, wage inflation, etc had driven up costs a lot the last few years before all the covid supply chain issues added another 10-15% on top of that.

Unless your parents were both engineers, accountants, nurses or similar professional jobs able to earn at least €50k a year each they wouldn't have had a chance, no amount of saving is going to get you ahead of 10% house price inflation.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118474447#Comment_118474447

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118474257#Comment_118474257

Interest rates were disgusting alright, but we could still purchase and (just about) maintain a house working jobs that nowadays wouldnt get you within an lions roar of a house of the same size or equivalent location.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118473170#Comment_118473170

This has always been a option used throughout history you only have to look at the huge Irish diaspora.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118473434#Comment_118473434

I was never pulled do you find fault with my figures? I also used the median wage not average so look at the figures again and tell me where I am wrong?

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118473501#Comment_118473501

Buying a property has almost always been the most expensive thing you buy and the most amount of money you will ever borrow. This has been the case for decades.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118474234#Comment_118474234

All those factors are relevant to Joe public, however if the investment funds and the state can outbid Joe public, they become price setters

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475233#Comment_118475233

That is one area that has changed alright maybe Sinn Fein will put manners on the vultures?

cruizer101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118473990#Comment_118473990

There is a few issues with that though

First by the sounds of things you did significant work on the house, majority of people don't have the knowledge to undertake such work. We are in the golden age of DIY with online tutorials for everything but that doesn't mean everybody is able to take on that kind of work. Particularly now with higher building standards. And as for getting someone else to do the work, good look with that, tradesmen at the moment are very rare and very expensive.

Secondly financing projects like that isn't always feasible, bank will lend to 90% of the value of house, unless people can save significantly more than the required deposit they will struggle to finance significant work on a house, even estimating how much it would cost would be s struggle for most.

Lastly if people have kids its often just not practical to move in to a project house, but you can't afford mortgage and rent and all the work.

I'm not writing off doer uppers, I think there is value to be found there, but need to be realistic as well its not feasible for most and there isn't that many come up, there is shortage of all kinds of properties.

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475064#Comment_118475064

Northern Ireland is an option that never gets much of a mention. Highly commutable to Dublin also. Only need to go to any building site to see evidence of this.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475250#Comment_118475250

SF will only increase the tax on institutional investors and introduce rent freeze’s. The outcome of that will be less properties to rent. If were able to build 20k houses a year at 150k a house as per their alternative budget. Then it may free up properties for rent. But I can’t see how they can build a house for 150k. They will also be competing with FTB’s whether it is buying houses or diverting building works to social housing.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118475368#Comment_118475368

Maybe I think the only real solution is to build , but as has been pointed out all costs relating to building has shot up