Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118495622#Comment_118495622

Financial intermediaries will be funds banks trust companies, spv’s etc.

I’m not familiar with the Apple structure but would imagine most of the debt is issued in the US as it would be tax deductible while the cash would sit in Ireland where it would pay lower tax…. even if they did have debt in Ireland it most likely is held in a SPV.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118495827#Comment_118495827

I don't think it's debt would be as big as from likes of Apple.

More than that I'm abit confused on what you saying: "Financial intermediaries will be funds banks trust companies, spv’s etc."

I would have thought that in many cases those would not be considered as NFC (Non Financial Corporates). Whereas the diagram says, that the main debt is from NFC.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118496020#Comment_118496020

NFC are companies other than financials and the graph doesn’t show any financial companies data…to see that you would need to look at central bank data

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118496048#Comment_118496048

And that's what confuses me. Because you said "Financial intermediaries will be funds banks trust companies, spv’s etc". Is this considered as NFC?

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118496114#Comment_118496114

No that is considered FC (Financial Corporations) and will include the following:

NFC are corporations that do not fall into the above category.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118496204#Comment_118496204

Ok, I though that you still discussing in regards to Ireland Public and NFC debt diagrams provided by me and Wanderer and you.

When I said "So that mean the largest slice of Debt comes from Private Corporate", I was relating to the portion from diagrams, rather than total Irish external debts.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118496339#Comment_118496339

FC Debt 7112bn

NFC Debt 2828bn

Government debt 287bn

household debt 139bn

Villa05

Not sure if this is a throwaway comment by Austin Hughs or if he has significant data to back ut up but interesting none the less

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/property-prices-surge-by-14pc-in-a-year-41255766.html

Remote working has prompted huge numbers of householders to sell their homes on the east coast and move to more rural areas.

enricoh

I see in the news house prices rose by 14% in the year to November. Fairly grim for young people trying to get ahead in life. Also saw Australia are enticing people over by waiving permit fees etc.

I expect there is a fair pent up demand for people traveling, could we see a brain drain due to totally unaffordable rents n house prices going that way at a rate of knots?

yer man!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118500186#Comment_118500186

It has already begun, I hire people in The Netherlands and the amount of very skilled irish people coming this way in the last year has exploded.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118500828#Comment_118500828

In your opinion are they fleeing taxes or house prices

yer man!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118501388#Comment_118501388

Housing without a doubt, housing! House prices are fecked here too but at least renting alone is still realistic for the most part.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118501388#Comment_118501388

When I talk to other people who've left Ireland they generally cite accommodation and/or lockdown. Personal taxation levels is very much a secondary concern.

Timing belt

Interesting stat from the CSO that was published today but didn't make the newspapers

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118502591#Comment_118502591

Does this look like its topping out?

2020 was full lockdown

2021 almost everything open, yet no change of note in executable demand despite rising deposits in banks

I guess we can see why Gov were adament on introducing shared ownership contrary to all advise. New builds are beyond affordability and it wouldn't look good if it were just investment funds and gov were buying new builds.

Getting close

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118503680#Comment_118503680

I don't think it is topping out as the number of transactions is severely hampered by available supply. Also the banks are full of deposits which suggests that there are people who would buy if there was enough properties for sale. Add on top of that wage inflation and prices will continue to rise until the supply of properties to buy picks up.

The new builds have only increased 3.3% but I expect that figure to be higher over the coming months as it is based on execution so you will have people that have agreed a higher price in 2021 but won't have the new property delivered till 2022.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/studio-apartment-25-belgrave-road-rathmines-rathmines-dublin-6/3682450

On a lighter note, here is the investment opportunity of a lifetime! €140k for a studio apartment in Rathmines. Yes it looks like it is just the front room of an old house but rest assured it cab be rented as a studio apartment for some desperate renter.

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118503854#Comment_118503854

Surely its illegal to sell that as a studio apartment? Doesn't really look like its up to any sort of building or fire regs compliance and even how exactly would it be subdivided between the different owners, etc!

That said its probably already sold for cash monies 😄

L1011

Another vacancy survey that may have some significant issues determining what is a holiday house and what isn't:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/almost-45-000-properties-lie-empty-in-west-northwest-and-border-area-1.4780786

Three highest areas for vacant and derelict residential properties are apparently Kilalla, Burtonport and Bunbeg-Derrybeg. All three are full of holiday homes. I know Burtonport very well.

On the commercial vacancy rate Burtonport is definitely up there - all the old fishermans coop / Marinpro buildings, Cope supermarket, post office, butchers, tailors, BIM ice plant, one of the restaurants (possibly pub licenced, can't remember), old health centre, are all empty - but there is no way 20% of the houses are actually vacant. A holiday house is not a vacant house unless you intend some method to seize them or tax them beyond plausible existence.

And considering the few recent businesses in Burtonport - the cafe and the gift shop; plus the entire re-use plan for the fishermans co-op and Marinpro sites are tourism dependent; and it hasn't had a hotel for maybe 50 years - those holiday homes, be they personally held or rented out, are about all they have as customers.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118503854#Comment_118503854

Lack of a floor plan showing that the separate bathroom is, in fact, part of the "apartment" is setting off alarm bells for me.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118503807#Comment_118503807

Ref new builds. Why do you think ftb's are foregoing all the help to buy a new build over no help buy an existing dwelling?

Is it purely low supply mixed with panic to buy whatever is available driven by high rents.

If that is the case, I would be advising anyone with in demand skills to leave the country.

Your in trouble if the biggest decision of your life is panic driven

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118504884#Comment_118504884

I am selling my 'holiday' property located in Connemara. That region is fuc*** and it has nothing whatsoever to do with holiday homes. There will be no one living west of Oughterard, a century from now. This parochial, to the point of childish and retarded, 'local needs only' nonsense is partly to blame, and is the opposite of the cure i'ts promoted as.

That holiday home is not officialy known to exist and didn't even get an Eircode.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118504979#Comment_118504979

I think it is a mix of low supply and fear that a large number of the properties in the estate/flat complex will be social housing.

I don't think there is panic buying going on I think it is just the dynamics of the market due to low supply and the fact that rent is a more expensive option.

Even if you overpaid today by 5% on a 500k property it would probably be the same as paying paying rent for a year at circa 2k a month. Add on top that people expect house prices to increase because there is wage inflation. So in the above example if prices increased by 5% in 2022 and you overpaid by 5% you would still be 25k better off buying today than waiting a year.

I don't understand why you would advise people to leave the country.... Most developed countries have similar issues to Ireland at present so to be able to buy else where might be just as difficult. If they went to Netherlands they would be less likely to be able to buy a property than in Ireland as they have had double digit growth in residential property for the past few years.... ok they may find it easier to rent but they will get older and will still not have bought a property which may become problematic as they get closer to 40.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118504895#Comment_118504895

Its planning that will stop by hat sale not alarm bells. Unless there is planning for separate units and the conditions of that planning is met, it's unlikely that it can be sold. Hard to believe that an auctioneer would put it up unless planning was in place.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118509346#Comment_118509346

Going to be pre63 surely.

I have no idea if it is pre63 but 1973 called and it wants that bathroom back.

Amadan Dubh

Back to the "sky is falling", an article today on The Great Resignation which Ireland will start to experience as COVID restrictions ease up.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/how-much-will-your-wage-package-increase-this-year-1.4781403

One thing that stood out was a note that;

Labour shortages are now a crucial economic issue. While some pandemic- related pressures may ease in the short term, employers’ group Ibec says that “the significant tightness in the labour market remains the greatest permanent threat to competitiveness”.

It estimates that 60,000 additional employees could be needed across the economy each year to 2025 and, adding up the numbers, sees a significant shortfall.

I don't suppose they know where these employees would live if many were coming from abroad?! It feels like the economic stress events will hit soon and I don't know how this perfect storm will manifest but I don't think it will be positive.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118509681#Comment_118509681

Plenty of labor available:

“Eurostat data show that in 2016 in Ireland 11.6 per cent of adults aged 18-59 lived in households where no-one was working”

why work as long as you have shills like richard boyd barrett even considering cost rentals too expensive. Free houses are needed!!!

mind boggling that these people (mick wallace too etc) even get past 5% first preference votes.

the irish middle class needs a proper living standard reset (taxes or sky high inflation) to see these left wing low IQ’ers for what they really are…

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118509587#Comment_118509587

It would matter if it was pre 63. There would have to be planning in place to indicate that there was different units within the building. Originally it was a single dwelling.

Unless it's a cash buyer nobody will get a mortgage for such a purchase. Even if you did there would have to be an OMC in place to manage the common area's so again a solicitor would advise against sign off.

Pussyhands

US stock market shaky on the back of interest rates rising. Netflix stock tanked 20% after releasing earnings which beat all the top line estimates. Peleton announced they're stopping production until March on the back of lower demand.

Pandemic coming to an end in Ireland and will soon be the same all over the world.

If I had just bought a house in the last 6 months I'd be anxious.

What's happening in the last 18 months is unsustainable. Labour shortages, housing shortages, high inflation. Looking at the charts. From September 2020 - November 2021 house prices have risen 15.4%. That is unbelievable growth at a time when prices were already hugely inflated. You can talk about supply and demand but where is all this extra money coming from? Wages aren't growing at that pace.

If a house sold in September 2020 for 350k, that same house is now sold for 404k. I imagine there's a lot of FOMO going on at the moment. Psychology plays a huge part. Things are gone mad again. Even in the Self Build group on facebook you can see it. In the last month or so I've seen questions about giving your house a name and another one asking if they should put in 2 dishwashers as when you are filling one dishwasher, the other one will have clean dishes available.

Could be time to strap in.