Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

hometruths

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Are these the same units mentioned in this piece?


A Block of 58 Social Homes, Empty for Years







https://www.dublininquirer.com/2019/03/13/a-block-of-58-social-homes-empty-for-years

Those are different, they had fire issues if I remember correctly. Caused quite a stink at the time, and given that I'm surprised the ones for sale this week did not elicit more comment.

MacronvFrugals

schmittel wrote: »

Those are different, they had fire issues if I remember correctly. Caused quite a stink at the time, and given that I'm surprised the ones for sale this week did not elicit more comment.

Ah ok yeah makes sense, with all the yet to be disclosed dodgy apartment blocks in Dublin I wonder is the fire issues more widespread because we know the best quality stuff built during the Tiger was units which the councils oversaw, it tended to reduce the cowboy antics that could by why they're offloading?


i noticed a private unit in the block took a 7% price increase the same day as the NAMA announcement

am_zarathustra

Bass Reeves wrote: »

A lot of that age group had an opportunity to buy during the property crash. Many choose not to as renting was cheaper and they taught prices would keep on going down. The recovery and it strength caught a lot of them, they expected a second crash straight away......they still think this will happen.

Until supply is sorted prices will hold or stay rising

schmittel wrote: »

Ok, if there is pent up demand at current prices presumably that majority of that demand is the rental sector.

As per the threshold survey:

Only 48% of renters are in full time work.
Just over half, 54% of respondents were over the age of 34. Largest cohort at 36% were 35-44.
The majority - 58% - earn between €20,001 and €35,000. Only 6% earn above 45,000.

These stats point very clearly to the fact that it is a small minority of renters who can afford to buy a home at current prices.

If the vast majority of renters cannot afford to buy at current prices then there is not much pent up demand at current prices.

Sure the minority of renters who can afford to buy are currently bidding away against investors and the state, which is why we are seeing prices rise now.

But prices rising now are not an indication of large amounts of pent up demand.

Totally agree with your first comment that the Threshold survey shows a huge volume of pent demand for affordable housing.

Historically if you were earning in the bottom quartile of wages, as the majority of this group are, you would have received social housing. It would be impossible in most capital cities in the world to buy with wages that low bar a very small apartment (which are overinflated in Ireland due to institutional investors etc).

Everyone also cannot live in the city. I earn good enough money, and we have a high enough combined income but I needed to move out of the city to afford a decent size house with a garden somewhere we felt was safe. We were bidding against two other couples, not an investor, and the end price was still way above the asking. We saw maybe 3 houses in that time. Supply in this areas is completely halted now, we've seen nothing in 4/5 months.

Prices are steadily rising across Dublin and there is nothing I can see cooling that. I know people getting crazy money off family to bid, money that lockdown means the middles classes have, and are loath to hold onto with the lack of an interest on deposits.. If this shared equity mess takes off you can add 10-20% onto the price of houses in any desirable suburb of Dublin........and as stated on this thread earlier, the nightmare only comes when interest rates rise.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Fair enough you don't agree with my conclusions from the facts, but are you able to explain why instead of just accusing me of spinning the facts?

Or at the very least how exactly I am spinning this?

Spinning or over complicating the fact that demand is actually up from this time last year by trying to dilute it by using it fractionally with a list of people who are on the tenancies list, who we don't know if they ever want to buy or not. The facts are there. Numbers are up year on year for both mortgage approvals and draw downs which in any ones language means demand is up. Try not to over complicate things.

C14N

am_zarathustra wrote: »

If this shared equity mess takes off you can add 10-20% onto the price of houses in any desirable suburb of Dublin........and as stated on this thread earlier, the nightmare only comes when interest rates rise.

I can see Shared Equity pushing prices up closer to the limit in areas outside Dublin, but I don't see it having a direct effect on prices within Dublin. The caps for different parts of Dublin vary (iirc) from €400k-€450k, and only apply to new properties. The reality is that in Dublin it is already nearly impossible to find a new build in Dublin within these price ranges. The only possible things I could see going for these prices would be small apartments built well outside the city, and the numbers of those being built is limited.

I don't see how it will really be used much inside Dublin at all.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Spinning or over complicating the fact that demand is actually up from this time last year by trying to dilute it by using it fractionally with a list of people who are on the tenancies list, who we don't know if they ever want to buy or not. The facts are there. Numbers are up year on year for both mortgage approvals and draw downs which in any ones language means demand is up. Try not to over complicate things.

I guess it could be what one person sees as simple, another sees as over complicated.

MacronvFrugals

When ex-council 2 bed gaffs in Finglas are bidding 22.5% over asking the market is insanely hot







https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/50-griffith-drive-finglas-dublin-d11-e7w0

am_zarathustra

C14N wrote: »

I can see Shared Equity pushing prices up closer to the limit in areas outside Dublin, but I don't see it having a direct effect on prices within Dublin. The caps for different parts of Dublin vary (iirc) from €400k-€450k, and only apply to new properties. The reality is that in Dublin it is already nearly impossible to find a new build in Dublin within these price ranges. The only possible things I could see going for these prices would be small apartments built well outside the city, and the numbers of those being built is limited.

I don't see how it will really be used much inside Dublin at all.

I'd agree, prices in Dublin are already insane, it's the suburbs that are really going to show the price differentials after. East Meath and North Kildare especially I'd wager.

Interestingly where we bought the EA and the solicitor both commented all they've been dealing with is teachers moving out of the city. It's a handy location if your family is in the midlands or south east, aka half the teachers in Dublin. Prices there are very close to what you'd pay in ok parts of Dublin but have been increasing steadily over the last 12 months and you'll get a bit more space. A standard 3 bed is probably going for 30-40 thousand more than the same time last year. I can see prices increasing further and there is limited space to build on any side of the town. If your not commuting every day the extra space and quality of life is worth it but I might be biased.

Even in my own home town, a small midlands town but well connected travel wise, prices are mad. Houses are 40-50 what they were less than 2 years ago.

C14N

am_zarathustra wrote: »

I'd agree, prices in Dublin are already insane, it's the suburbs that are really going to show the price differentials after. East Meath and North Kildare especially I'd wager.

I guess this is where I didn't see what you meant. I'd never consider Meath or Kildare to be suburbs. These are generally just completely separate towns in the commuter belt. I'd consider somewhere like Palmerstown, or Finglas, or Rathfarnham to be suburbs, not somewhere like Leixlip or Dunboyne.

Cyrus

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

When ex-council 2 bed gaffs in Finglas are bidding 22.5% over asking the market is insanely hot







https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/50-griffith-drive-finglas-dublin-d11-e7w0

or is it a function of a low guide price being set to get people bidding?

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-D41D198EA9EA096C8025821F004D0460?OpenDocument

C14N

Cyrus wrote: »

or is it a function of a low guide price being set to get people bidding?

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-D41D198EA9EA096C8025821F004D0460?OpenDocument

+1 to this. I think "amount over asking price" can be a pretty misleading figure really, even if I've used it myself. Agents often seem to put properties up at prices far lower than any onlooker would ever assume they would go for in the current market. Prices are high, but I think the more important detail is to compare them to where they were 1 or 2 years ago.

tobsey

Cyrus wrote: »

or is it a function of a low guide price being set to get people bidding?

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-D41D198EA9EA096C8025821F004D0460?OpenDocument

Number 50, the one quoted in the original post was sold also in 2017 for 150k but that's marked as not full market price. I'm guessing that was one buying the other out at 50% of the value. 250k seems very low as an asking if those prices were achieved in 2017. How they got 300k in 2017 though I don't know. It is a nice settled area though compared to some other parts of Finglas. I'm surprised it wasn't listed as Glasnevin to be honest. Most houses around there are when put up for sale.

am_zarathustra

Cyrus wrote: »

or is it a function of a low guide price being set to get people bidding?

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-D41D198EA9EA096C8025821F004D0460?OpenDocument

Sold in 2014 for 197000
https://www.myhome.ie/priceregister/28-griffith-drive-finglas-east-dublin-11-dublin-595926

From maps looks to be in much better shape and has a decent extension. This one needs 60-70 grand of work to get it into normal shape, bar the one lovely bathroom.

PPR for the area has an average of €235,000, up 14000 and that's 6 months or more out of date. And that's not an average house in that area, a lot would be much better maintained.

MacronvFrugals

I hadnt realised the LSE and ESRI were also part of the figures released by Threshold today



State’s private rented sector trebles in size since 2000

The private rental sector in the Republic has trebled in size since 2000 as high house prices have forced more people to rent, a conference on housing has heard.

Christine Whitehead, emeritus professor of housing economics at London School of Economics (LSE), said Ireland had experienced one of the most rapid expansions in private renting seen anywhere on the globe.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/state-s-private-rented-sector-trebles-in-size-since-2000-1.4608907

MacronvFrugals

Berlin to vote on radical bid to fight housing crisis

Berliners are to vote on a referendum to force major property companies to sell thousands of their flats to the city, officials said today as the election-year issue of high rents grows more charged.

A grassroots petition campaign fuelled by anger over surging housing costs submitted 183,711 valid signatures, "more than the total required" of around 172,000 to put the question to a general ballot, the Berlin election supervisor said.

Local officials must now set a date for the vote, which is widely expected to be held on 26 September, the same day as elections for a new federal parliament and Berlin government.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0701/1232462-berlin-housing-referendum/

Cristianc

You need to take into consideration those 6% high earning tenants but also people who live with parents, people who resize or even foreigners buying as an investment here. Plus the vulture funds.

Question is, where does most demand come from? Definitely not from the tenants wanna be buyers.

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Berlin to vote on radical bid to fight housing crisis






https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0701/1232462-berlin-housing-referendum/

I linked a Newstalk discussion on this earlier in week. Very interesting.

Here it is
https://www.newstalk.com/shows/breakfast-business-234887

Hubertj

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/derrigimlagh-ballyconneely-co-galway/4509822

This is amazing.

cnocbui

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/derrigimlagh-ballyconneely-co-galway/4509822

This is amazing.

I someone sunk €500,000 into what I am selling, it could be more amazing, for €150 k less, I think.

tobsey

Brantley Ambitious Sunburn wrote: »

bought in 2017 for 150k , nice return for whoever is selling.

That wasn’t full market price. Either a separation or inheritance and one person bought the other out for have the cost. So market value was 300k at the time. Makes the asking price of it now very low.

Marius34

Cristianc wrote: »

You need to take into consideration those 6% high earning tenants but also people who live with parents, people who resize or even foreigners buying as an investment here. Plus the vulture funds.

Question is, where does most demand come from? Definitely not from the tenants wanna be buyers.

Why not? In this case where FTB buyers live prior buying? Whats left, most demands from people living with parents than?

hometruths

Leo getting hot and bothered about criticism on housing and the prevalence of investment funds.

You’ve got to worry when he thinks this a decent defence:

He added that people “are more likely to be competing with the State than with investment funds”.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Leo getting hot and bothered about criticism on housing and the prevalence of investment funds.

You’ve got to worry when he thinks this a decent defence:

Yea, he started well by pulling the fool up on his grandstanding but then it went downhill

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Yea, he started well by pulling the fool up on his grandstanding but then it went downhill

I read it as he started by saying how great the the government were at buying more than the funds, and then moved on to the accusations of grandstanding.

But maybe that’s just me spinning the facts again!

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

I read it as he started by saying how great the the government were at buying more than the funds, and then moved on to the accusations of grandstanding.

But maybe that’s just me spinning the facts again!

I only watched a clip, pearse got up, took off his mask and started ranting loudly, then Leo pulled him up on it and started waffling. But I didn’t see all of it so maybe you’re not spinning the facts

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I only watched a clip, pearse got up, took off his mask and started ranting loudly, then Leo pulled him up on it and started waffling. But I didn’t see all of it so maybe you’re not spinning the facts

I don’t think it is really important in which order the exchange took place.

What matters more, (IMO), is clearly the IT thinks the “stop thinking of your social media profile” angle is more news worthy than the “its not the funds buyers are competing with, its the government” angle.

Therein lies the problem.

fergus1001

problem is most of the FG voter base and IT readership are more scared of an October revolution rather than fixing problems



*I know I'm using the broad brush but I think it's true of coarse there will be outliers*

Doesn’t look like it’s a live listing yet, but have been watching for Tara Hall to come onto the market for a while. Was lucky enough to stay there with family a couple of times (in the grey room pictured) in the short period that it was run as a guest house before Covid. Simply amazing property (but obviously given age and location in need of constant upkeep). Wanted to stay there again but the family told us they were bailing out.

https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/homes/stealing-the-scene-in-howth-inside-the-5m-mansion-featured-in-blockbusterromance-inspired-by-a-cecelia-ahern-novel-40604315.html

Very much hope it remains a hotel rather than being bought as a family home or rich persons trophy house

Hubertj

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/donegal-shore-house-cruit-lower-kincasslagh-co-donegal-f94-a2p2/4503625

Some house for the money. Not sure about some of the carpets and decor though

wassie

Thinks its been covered before - was built by Daniel O'Donnell who then sold it in 2007 for €3 million.
https://www.thesun.ie/tvandshowbiz/7048918/inside-daniel-odonnell-mansion-market-price-sale-donegal/

As they say in show business....it's all about the timing.