Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Amadan Dubh

Dav010 wrote: »

If supply is not available, the rental market should work like every other economic market, why should it be any different? When supply outstrips demand, prices fall, except of course when government interference prevents that from happening. Our population has grown because there are jobs here, it outstripped home building, it will take time for that to catch up, do you want a crash with associated job losses and economic bust, just so houses become more affordable? How will people pay?

In relation to emigration and migration, yes, that is how society should be. If you can’t get what you want where and when you want it, you consider alternative methods to achieve it. It seems self entitled to think you should not have to do what previous generations did in order to get what you want. It can hardly be considered begrudgery, and it is laughable to describe it as traumatic, that previous generations had to emigrate to achieve their ambition to own a home.

You do use hyperbole, quite a lot, do you see political revolution, social upheaval or markets crashing? Where? Are people marching on the streets? Has the stock market dived? Has the government collapsed to be replaced with Lefties? No it hasn’t. The voters in DS have a chance to send a message, let’s see if the political upheaval you speak of is reality.

I was reading back over the posts since yesterday to correct spelling and make sure I was happy with them - perhaps a tad hyperbolic, I admit and you can have that - I was in bed and posting at 1am so probably explains it!

Villa05

Bass Reeves wrote:

Factory not too far away that has an automated production system require unskilled operatives. Pay is a bit with 800/ week nearly 45k/ year. Also included is health insurance Christmas bonus( about 709-1k, first 500 is tax free), pension scheme and decent working conditions.

Out of interest, does that factory produce products that have inflation similar to housing

I have not heard anyone saying houses are not being built because of low wages in the sector.

With regard to labour availability. If we were serious about fixing things we could look at other sectors

Fruit pickers from Bulgaria during the height of a pandemic and travel ban.

Nurses from the Philippines

Food processing from Brazil

Roads maintenance from Eastern Europe


This of course after we look at why 10,000 construction sector workers are on PUP up to very recently

Where there is the will, there is a way

Villa05

Cyrus wrote:

So which European market do you hold up as the model of mature and functional?

For Ireland, I'd go Dutch you have affordable options for people who want a home and for the people who want to play monopoly, off you go at your own risk.

Open to correction but I didn't hear of any bailouts required in that nation in 08

combat14

What's driving bidding wars for houses in Ireland?

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2021/0629/1231923-ireland-housing-property-bidding-wars-supply-demand/

apparently investment funds and sheer panic from ordinary buyers who are now terrified they wont get on the property ladder

dr hearne warns of a social catastrophe for the country if the government dont take radical supply friendly measures while massively curbing investment funds

the reality is the country may well also face a political catastrophe as FF/FG are opening the door wide open to SF if this continues

fergus1001

combat14 wrote:

the reality is the country may well also face a political catastrophe as FF/FG are opening the door wide open to SF if this continues

as stated earlier in the thread letting SF in on it's own would spook the funds enough to back out of the market so unless FFFG do something better than hike up stamp duty they will leave that door open for SF

old_house

Villa05 wrote: »

Open to correction but I didn't hear of any bailouts required in that nation in 08

The Dutch government paid more than 40 billion euros to rescue the domestic banking sector, nationalising ABN Amro and SNS Reaal, and injecting 10 billion in cash into ING.

Mad_maxx

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

The last paragraph is terribly unfair and symptomatic of the mindset which does not appreciate just how unequal Irish society is.

And the bailing out of the banks came after an absolutely outrageous time in Irish society where greed was rampant and people could not control themselves. Under 35s had zero hand in any of that, only entering the workforce after the crash. They notice "USC" on their payslips but have been gaslighted and told it is just temporary. The bailout itself and aim to get the country back working was a policy which had completed its aim by 2014/2015. However, FG, drunk on power, continued to go cap in hand via the IDA to international capital to aim for more and more growth. At all costs, it was about mroe and more, with no long term planning or effort to achieve a more sustainable, equitable society that works for all stakeholders. It was never a case of looking at the trends in companies constantly setting up and creating mroe jobs, bringing in more people to the country and asking "is this sustainable? What about housing, infrastructure, services; these haven't been given any focus since before the crash? So we had reactionary, thoughtless policies that were rushed through and have made the situation worse like RPZs, not fixing the situation where mortgage defaulters and non-paying tenants could sit in valuable property for years, as well as HAP which was a stop-gap which has become a permanent policy!

the alternative government ( SF ) fully back mortgage defaulters and rogue tenants remaining on in properties

Mad_maxx

combat14 wrote: »

What's driving bidding wars for houses in Ireland?

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2021/0629/1231923-ireland-housing-property-bidding-wars-supply-demand/

apparently investment funds and sheer panic from ordinary buyers who are now terrified they wont get on the property ladder

dr hearne warns of a social catastrophe for the country if the government dont take radical supply friendly measures while massively curbing investment funds

the reality is the country may well also face a political catastrophe as FF/FG are opening the door wide open to SF if this continues

Rory Hearne is a neo marxist fool who,s near permanent presence on the airwaves tells us a lot about the irish media

yer man!

Yeah the Dutch model isn't anything to write home about now to be honest. I'm trying to buy a house here at the moment, you can get 100% mortgage at 5 times your salary. That's all grand but the locals almost see the max the bank will give you as a target rather than a limit.

There's a frenzy going on here, just like Ireland from what I can see. Overbidding is around 15% over asking on average, in my experience. Municipalities are having to enact byelaws to prohibit investors from buying houses by practically placing covenants on houses that they must be owner occupied. Bidding here is also a closed system, you place your blind bid by a deadline and hope you get it. There's also very little support for FTB, you get stamp duty waived if the house is below 400k, but sure 2 bed apartments are easily exceeding that now so it's useless.

Not sure if it's any better than Ireland but it's definitely not far off it. I've decided to just step back and take a breather, keeping an eye out but happy to see if things can settle down a bit.

Villa05

Villa05 wrote:

Open to correction but I didn't hear of any bailouts required in that nation in 08

Thanks old house

So the Dutch bailout was 40bn spread over a population of 17 million

The Irish bailout 64 billion spread over a population of 4 million at the time

I wonder how much of the Dutch bailout was due to national over international business. The vast majority of the Irish bailout was due to national business

Villa05

Mad_maxx wrote:

the alternative government ( SF ) fully back mortgage defaulters and rogue tenants remaining on in properties

I don't think that's true

Rogue tennants usually = rogue neighbours. Supporting rogue neighbours does not equal populist vote

Bass Reeves

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Factory not too far away that has an automated production system require unskilled operatives. Pay is a bit with 800/ week nearly 45k/ year. Also included is health insurance Christmas bonus( about 709-1k, first 500 is tax free), pension scheme and decent working conditions.

Where in Ireland is a factory hiring unskilled workers on 45k a year?

taxdummy

I viewed a property recently which needs a LOT of work, which even the EA acknowledged, and to be honest I don't think anyone would be willing to pay the asking price or near it (could be wrong), but a similar house in great condition (in comparison), went for a similar asking price a few months ago. To give an idea - I reckon that house that I viewed would need min 125k+ of work to get it to the similar house that sold. There is issues with roof, and all round it's a shell of a house it once was, that has potential. The house is currently vacant, and went sale agreed a few years ago that fell through (I have no idea why). The EA told me at the time there was no offer on the property.

My question is, does the estate agent have to register/tell the sellers/tell other buyers of all bids that are made? If for instance I was to make a very low ball offer - say 50%/60% of the asking price?

If you tell other potential buyers that the current offer is at half the asking price - it's highly unlikely to get to the offering price (especially for this house).

Bass Reeves

Villa05 wrote: »

Out of interest, does that factory produce products that have inflation similar to housing

I have not heard anyone saying houses are not being built because of low wages in the sector.

With regard to labour availability. If we were serious about fixing things we could look at other sectors

Fruit pickers from Bulgaria during the height of a pandemic and travel ban.

Nurses from the Philippines

Food processing from Brazil

Roads maintenance from Eastern Europe


This of course after we look at why 10,000 construction sector workers are on PUP up to very recently

Where there is the will, there is a way

Shortage of construction workers right across Europe. There is a reluctance to allow non EU nationals into the area. Many trades have certification so not that easy to get non EU workers I to these area"s. Employers are responsible for the H&S if there employees so not have English it's up to the employer to make sure they understand safety regs

I am surprised but 10 k construction workers on PUP. I know no construction worker that is unemployed. I do know that some trader tradespeople who while still working were allowed to collect PUP if there businesses were effected by lockdowns. Some of these may.not have signed off.

Bass Reeves

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Where in Ireland is a factory hiring unskilled workers on 45k a year?

Find me ones that are not paying near enough that. Most factory work is paying 800/ week minimum especially if some sort of shift work is involved.

I am in the Midwest and that is the rate in most factories

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

For Ireland, I'd go Dutch you have affordable options for people who want a home and for the people who want to play monopoly, off you go at your own risk.

Open to correction but I didn't hear of any bailouts required in that nation in 08

I'm Ireland you also have affordable options, loads of them, they just aren't in the main cities.

Is there a main Dutch city that is different?

And the Dutch had a large bailout too

Bass Reeves

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Find me ones that are not paying near enough that. Most factory work is paying 800/ week minimum especially if some sort of shift work is involved.

I am in the Midwest and that is the rate in most factories

I think you live in parallel reality.
12.50 per hour is most common pay at factory work,the most go trough the agencies which take the difference.
Nobody does not pay 800 per week minimum.The best I can get as skilled carpenter 17.50 per hour before tax for SLAVERY work or around 650 per week plus FLAT rate overtime.And to get that I have travel 100km per day.
I am on North East.
My money in Multinational mechanical enginering company after 2 years in service are 13.50 per hour
The reason I am there the job is a lot easier than on site and I could do extra doing carpentry because I dont have travel to work
I will not back on site even for 1000 per week !
Because main job on sites are trough the agencies and I will be thrown on street without any redundancies or any other job once project will be ended or recession will come
I have more secured job than on site and my average earnings are higher than 6 months on site and 6 months on doll waiting for agency call !
All builders been thrown thrown from the sites during the Covid and found job elsewhere.The agencies and regulation creating builders shortage on sites not the supply from Eastern Europe
I know some builders who found another jobs during Covid and never will back on sites same as me for same reasons.
If government want have builders they must make companies hire directly not trough the agencies because most agencies treat people like dogs !

Bass Reeves

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Find me ones that are not paying near enough that. Most factory work is paying 800/ week minimum especially if some sort of shift work is involved.

I am in the Midwest and that is the rate in most factories

Go on, even just one example of 45k per year for unskilled workers in a factory?

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Out of interest, does that factory produce products that have inflation similar to housing

I have not heard anyone saying houses are not being built because of low wages in the sector.

With regard to labour availability. If we were serious about fixing things we could look at other sectors

Fruit pickers from Bulgaria during the height of a pandemic and travel ban.

Nurses from the Philippines

Food processing from Brazil

Roads maintenance from Eastern Europe


This of course after we look at why 10,000 construction sector workers are on PUP up to very recently

Where there is the will, there is a way

there I is a shortage of skilled construction workers in Europe. And if immigration increases where will they live?
Where there’s a will there’s a way. What’s the way?

The whole system in Ireland is corrupted and full of mess !
The big companies trough the lobbies creating pressure on government
Give Us Cheap Slaves ! We need Work Force !
OK says government,here we are,getting it
Companies finished projects,made money and throw people on streets
And then government must pay those Eastern Europe workers social welfare,HAPs,build social housing houses paying for it by Ireland tax payers money !
The big company eat the fish and government has wash the dish !?
Nice,Is not ?

Moneylender to write off borrowings of all its Irish customers as it leaves market

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/moneylender-to-write-off-borrowings-of-all-its-irish-customers-as-it-leaves-market-40596344.html

Nice on one side but who will come to lend money and what will happen when people will not get money to pay bills ?

Rent increases to be capped at inflation in pressure zones

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/rent-increases-to-be-capped-at-inflation-in-pressure-zones-1.4608191

Nice too but as Sherry Fitzerald analyst said on Newstalk number of weeks ago :

We have shortage of property for rent because landlords selling property leaving the market


Things getting worst week after week and this will hit property market heavily.

Revolution 1917

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

Moneylender to write off borrowings of all its Irish customers as it leaves market

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/moneylender-to-write-off-borrowings-of-all-its-irish-customers-as-it-leaves-market-40596344.html

Nice on one side but who will come to lend money and what will happen when people will not get money to pay bills?

I think you're stretching it, if you're implying that people who rely on money lenders, or the money lender leaving, are going to have an impact on the property market.


Besides, most Credit Unions have loan products now aimed at those who are low earners or who just need small amounts to get by, as they were trying to move in on the money lender market.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

I think you're stretching it, if you're implying that people who rely on money lenders, or the money lender leaving, are going to have an impact on the property market.


Besides, most Credit Unions have loan products now aimed at those who are low earners or who just need small amounts to get by, as they were trying to move in on the money lender market.

Unfortunately Credit unions getting them money back a lot quicker than Provident and similar.
Also Credit unions does not lend money to same class of people who Provident was lending.
That mean the households bills and banks repayments bills will be more affected.

Darc19

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Rent increases to be capped at inflation in pressure zones

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/rent-increases-to-be-capped-at-inflation-in-pressure-zones-1.4608191

Nice too but as Sherry Fitzerald analyst said on Newstalk number of weeks ago :

We have shortage of property for rent because landlords selling property leaving the market


Things getting worst week after week and this will hit property market heavily.

Never ever ever ever believe sh1te from estate agents.

Landlords are not leaving the market.

Accidental landlords are finally able to clear their mortgage and they are selling up, but they are not real landlords.

Plenty of new investors out there. Most are purchasing for pension funds - anything from single properties to multiples

I've yet in 30 years of buying and selling to see an estate agent statement to come true. They trade on bullsh1t.

Darc19

Darc19 wrote: »

Never ever ever ever believe sh1te from estate agents.

Landlords are not leaving the market.

They trade on bullsh1t.

Not the only ones apparently.

A quick google will confirm for you that significant numbers of landlords have left the sector over the past few years, that information comes from the RTB, not EAs.

Ace2007

Darc19 wrote: »

Never ever ever ever believe sh1te from estate agents.

Landlords are not leaving the market.

Accidental landlords are finally able to clear their mortgage and they are selling up, but they are not real landlords.

Plenty of new investors out there. Most are purchasing for pension funds - anything from single properties to multiples

I've yet in 30 years of buying and selling to see an estate agent statement to come true. They trade on bullsh1t.

Na i agree with others, landlords are definitely leaving the market in their droves and why wouldn't they - houses are going through the roof price wise, regulations are coming in that are meaning more cost for landlords and less ability to raise rent, and then you have them competing against institutional investors who get the tax breaks. Why have all that hassle, when you can get a good deal? No brainer really.

Timing belt

Villa05 wrote: »

For Ireland, I'd go Dutch you have affordable options for people who want a home and for the people who want to play monopoly, off you go at your own risk.

Open to correction but I didn't hear of any bailouts required in that nation in 08

“If you look at how many young people have to stay at home and the number of people over 25 who are still living with roommates because they have no other choice, then these are all signals that more houses need to be built”,

Above quote is not about Ireland but the Netherlands the housing model you think is better than Ireland.

Source: https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/06/housing-shortage-reason-steep-house-prices-economists-claim

You blame government for everything and SF will fix it all...yet governments in nearly every developed country in the western world is experiencing similar issues that they are struggling to fix.

As for your post on pensions in other EU countries being better funded it might be worth while remembering that they are the ones buying all the Irish property and if a bubble does exist as you claim and it goes pop so does the pensions...just something to consider

Bey0nd

Saw this house come up on daft - https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-5-waverly-view-greystones-co-wicklow/3191552

Nice house and lovely area by all accounts, but I can see this sold as a new build for €500k less than 2 years ago. Is a €135k increase in less than 2 years really where we're at now?

Amadan Dubh

Timing belt wrote: »

“If you look at how many young people have to stay at home and the number of people over 25 who are still living with roommates because they have no other choice, then these are all signals that more houses need to be built”,

Above quote is not about Ireland but the Netherlands the housing model you think is better than Ireland.

Source: https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/06/housing-shortage-reason-steep-house-prices-economists-claim

You blame government for everything and SF will fix it all...yet governments in nearly every developed country in the western world is experiencing similar issues that they are struggling to fix.

As for your post on pensions in other EU countries being better funded it might be worth while remembering that they are the ones buying all the Irish property and if a bubble does exist as you claim and it goes pop so does the pensions...just something to consider

I wouldn't be too worried about pension funds, especially those in other countries. Firstly, property is a risky investment so these pension funds know what they're getting into. Secondly, the trade off for their returns is the struggle of the individual who is paying for their returns. While perhaps the property fund suspensions last year, pre-covid were a canary in the coal one, I think seeing a pension fund go tits up will trigger market uncertainty and pull back. Probably more than what FF, FG and SF can do combined!

Bey0nd

Bey0nd wrote: »

Saw this house come up on daft - https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-5-waverly-view-greystones-co-wicklow/3191552

Nice house and lovely area by all accounts, but I can see this sold as a new build for €500k less than 2 years ago. Is a €135k increase in less than 2 years really where we're at now?

Great for the people selling it, if they get that price.