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Are we excited yet?

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    #1862
    FFVII
    Registered Users Posts: 1,382 ✭✭✭FFVII


    HillCloudHop wrote: »
    Looking forward to sub 10k BTC again. Will be a good time to accumulate.

    No you won't.

    Stop posting this crap


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    #1863
    HGVRHKYY
    Registered Users Posts: 404 ✭✭HGVRHKYY


    FFVII wrote: »
    No you won't.

    Stop posting this crap

    Yeah people who say that do two things when occasions like that actually do pop up: 1. Hesitate thinking it'll go lower and put it off or 2. Hesitate and doubt too much to actually buy with conviction. Bullsh!tters destined to just stay in the same place on the sidelines


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    #1864
    patnor1011
    Registered Users Posts: 2,956 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Meh, I think that chinese comrades go after easy scapegoat. They had some damage to their energy production not that long ago and seems that they choose to blame evil miners for energy shortage. That story make it easier to deal with peasants who may be on the brink of revolt.


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    #1865
    grindle
    Registered Users Posts: 6,026 ✭✭✭grindle


    HGVRHKYY wrote: »
    Yeah people who say that do two things when occasions like that actually do pop up: 1. Hesitate thinking it'll go lower and put it off or 2. Hesitate and doubt too much to actually buy with conviction. Bullsh!tters destined to just stay in the same place on the sidelines

    I hope you're having a few drinks and not serious. Who was buying when BTC stagnated around $4k? Who was buying ETH when it was <$100? Same again. There's a buyer for every trade. I know a good few here were buying because the only bad news was "price goes down", everything else was peachy. Crypto didn't end in the depths of 2018 even if it's how the moonbois spoke, many people here were buying continuously.


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    #1866
    HillCloudHop
    Registered Users Posts: 105 ✭✭HillCloudHop


    FFVII wrote: »
    Stop posting this crap

    Why is this crap?

    Zoom out and look at the long-term chart. No different than any other asset bubble in history including the 2017/18 bubble burst. I expect it, on balance of probability, to play out similarly.


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    #1867
    Jackben75
    Registered Users Posts: 193 ✭✭Jackben75


    HillCloudHop wrote: »
    Why is this crap?

    Zoom out and look at the long-term chart. No different than any other asset bubble in history including the 2017/18 bubble burst. I expect it, on balance of probability, to play out similarly.

    delusional. BTC isn't going away, what we are experiencing is a whole lot of FUD. China banning mining is a non issue, the miners will move and are moving as we speak. As for banks banning crypto transactions, story is done to death, ultimately they may feel a little more uncomfortable with the scenario but any ban won't succeed. The market will bounce back. As for 100 bucks btc, not a chance, i would be surprised if it went below 20k. Hold firm people. Take a break and forget about it for a while. Your mental health will thank you.


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    #1868
    HGVRHKYY
    Registered Users Posts: 404 ✭✭HGVRHKYY


    grindle wrote: »
    I hope you're having a few drinks and not serious. Who was buying when BTC stagnated around $4k? Who was buying ETH when it was <$100? Same again. There's a buyer for every trade. I know a good few here were buying because the only bad news was "price goes down", everything else was peachy. Crypto didn't end in the depths of 2018 even if it's how the moonbois spoke, many people here were buying continuously.

    I was. You'd have to be thick to not buy at those prices if you're actually investing in crypto at all for the long-term


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    #1869
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users Posts: 19,072 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    HGVRHKYY wrote: »
    I was. You'd have to be thick to not buy at those prices if you're actually investing in crypto at all for the long-term




    There is a well known psychological bias in investing. The exact name escapes my memory right now but the basic idea is that often people will look back at what happened in the past. Given what happened in the intervening period, they then look for "signals" or metrics that they think were present then. So it's a kind of confirmation bias.


    The actual bias then comes when they convince themselves that what happened subsequently was obvious at the time, or at least should have been obvious at the time. Where this gets dangerous is that going forward, this feeds into a sense of certainty which isn't necessarily justified.


    And I have to preemptively emphasize - what a person is certain will happen, may actually happen. It does not mean that their certainty was correct. When it does happen to coincide, it reinforces the above mentioned bias.


    If the other dude wants to talk about waiting for 10k then there is no point getting annoyed at him. That's his choice. He might be wrong or you might be wrong, or you might both be wrong. No need to get emotional over a difference of opinion


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    #1870
    Piehead
    Registered Users Posts: 472 ✭✭Piehead


    Dogecoin seems to have gone down a lot. It might go back up quickly?


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    #1871
    pioneerpro
    Registered Users Posts: 598 ✭✭✭pioneerpro


    Waiting for MATIC/Polygon to find a floor here around 80c as long as the entire market doesn't dump as a result of BTC going below 25k.

    Similar story with AVAX/Avalanche in the $7-8 range as a mutually exclusive, but EIP-1559 correlated, play in relation to some of the more interesting recent news coming from France

    https://www.banque-france.fr/en/communique-de-presse/banque-de-france-conducts-new-central-bank-digital-currency-experiment

    Few of the ETH2.0/CDBC oriented projects are starting to get enticing as short-term plays outside of the obviously roll-up oriented ones that are on tight timelines (MATIC included; zksync at some point this year as well).


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    #1872
    pioneerpro
    Registered Users Posts: 598 ✭✭✭pioneerpro


    Piehead wrote: »
    Dogecoin seems to have gone down a lot. It might go back up quickly?

    I'd be watching XLM and DOGE carefully for sentiment runs. When people get burned on alts and want a 'second shot' there's a mentality which always seems to push them towards the lowest unit prices in the top 20 bigcaps on coinmarketcap.

    That is, of course, accepting that DOGE is basically a largecap ****coin with poor *flationary mechanics, and that XLM is one of the best codebases in the top 20 and hugely validated but one of the least 'sexy' coins and not a volatile price mover due to the Charitable Foundation backing and their stated mission.


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    #1873
    FileNotFound
    Registered Users Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭FileNotFound


    Was looking at Doge earlier alright - pity I bought BTC with my spare USDT just before china decreased its value again.

    So far my crypto experience has been a bit of a tumble down the hill.


    Was wondering about taking a hit on some BTC to have free USDT for if things really flatten out.

    Any thoughts, take a small hit now in the hope of recovery later????


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    #1874
    Dohnjoe
    Registered Users Posts: 17,783 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Jackben75 wrote: »
    delusional. BTC isn't going away, what we are experiencing is a whole lot of FUD. China banning mining is a non issue, the miners will move and are moving as we speak. As for banks banning crypto transactions, story is done to death, ultimately they may feel a little more uncomfortable with the scenario but any ban won't succeed. The market will bounce back. As for 100 bucks btc, not a chance, i would be surprised if it went below 20k. Hold firm people. Take a break and forget about it for a while. Your mental health will thank you.

    I would easily expect BTC to go below 20k in a multi-year bear (that's without significant bad news), and if global regulators really tightened up we could maybe see close to 10k. Eth could go under 500.

    That said, I don't think we'll see prices drop as low as 2018, that was the third major bull (since 2013), and the cat is out of the bag, everyone will be expecting a fourth if we get a prolonged bear now.


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    #1875
    zackory
    Closed Accounts Posts: 324 ✭✭zackory


    Jackben75 wrote: »
    delusional. BTC isn't going away, what we are experiencing is a whole lot of FUD. China banning mining is a non issue, the miners will move and are moving as we speak. As for banks banning crypto transactions, story is done to death, ultimately they may feel a little more uncomfortable with the scenario but any ban won't succeed. The market will bounce back. As for 100 bucks btc, not a chance, i would be surprised if it went below 20k. Hold firm people. Take a break and forget about it for a while. Your mental health will thank you.

    Stay the course

    We are in this together

    The next 2 weeks are crucial


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    #1876
    Dohnjoe
    Registered Users Posts: 17,783 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    zackory wrote: »
    Stay the course

    We are in this together

    The next 2 weeks are crucial

    Oh very likely there'll be a rise in the next few months - but that's all short-term bull****. The long-term is where it's at, and if we have entered a bear, you only need to look at 2018 for a guide as to what's likely to happen over the next year starting from peak.


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    #1877
    Irish_rat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,554 ✭✭✭Irish_rat


    Btc probably needs to shave another 30% off its price before we hit the bear I think


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    #1878
    Jackben75
    Registered Users Posts: 193 ✭✭Jackben75


    Dohnjoe wrote: »
    I would easily expect BTC to go below 20k in a multi-year bear (that's without significant bad news), and if global regulators really tightened up we could maybe see close to 10k. Eth could go under 500.

    That said, I don't think we'll see prices drop as low as 2018, that was the third major bull (since 2013), and the cat is out of the bag, everyone will be expecting a fourth if we get a prolonged bear now.

    i don't see it but of course anything is possible, if eth drops to sub 500, i will be buying a ****load of it as well as significant amounts of Dot, anyway, let's see :pac:


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    #1879
    FileNotFound
    Registered Users Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭FileNotFound


    Jackben75 wrote: »
    i don't see it but of course anything is possible, if eth drops to sub 500, i will be buying a ****load of it as well as significant amounts of Dot, anyway, let's see :pac:

    Yeah while it would be a hit to the current investment - I would have to agree if it drops like that the only thing to do would be invest heavy.


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    #1880
    pioneerpro
    Registered Users Posts: 598 ✭✭✭pioneerpro


    seannash wrote: »
    I'm surprised that I haven't seen anything about the Binance scam covered in the video below

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IG8LfZoMd_E

    Great piece:

    https://franciskim.co/binance-futures-matching-engine-crumbles-under-volatility/


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    #1881
    seannash
    Registered Users Posts: 5,672 ✭✭✭seannash


    pioneerpro wrote: »
    Great piece:

    https://franciskim.co/binance-futures-matching-engine-crumbles-under-volatility/


    Yeah he mentions Techleads high level version of it in the article.
    I'm actually amazed I haven't heard about it. It's very damning but I guess no one has any sympathy for leveraged traders.


    I'm reading it as a sign to take my stuff off Binance


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    #1882
    weemcd
    Registered Users Posts: 6,414 ✭✭✭weemcd


    Dipped below 30K we'll see how many orders below get filled...


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    #1883
    FileNotFound
    Registered Users Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭FileNotFound


    seannash wrote: »
    Yeah he mentions Techleads high level version of it in the article.
    I'm actually amazed I haven't heard about it. It's very damning but I guess no one has any sympathy for leveraged traders.


    I'm reading it as a sign to take my stuff off Binance


    Never heard anything about that - interesting, who would people recommend for a switch to?


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    #1884
    Jackben75
    Registered Users Posts: 193 ✭✭Jackben75


    FileNotFound wrote: »
    Never heard anything about that - interesting, who would people recommend for a switch to?

    it is specific to leverage trading, it's a very risky business on a good day, there may well be a bug(s) but the crypto markets are obviously volatile as hell so it would need to be assessed thoroughly etc. Rewards can be big but as people experience, you can get wiped out. Not good but Binance will weather the storm.

    the techlead guy also expects tether to imminently crash. I am a bit skeptical on him in general.


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    #1885
    zackory
    Closed Accounts Posts: 324 ✭✭zackory


    weemcd wrote: »
    Dipped below 30K we'll see how many orders below get filled...

    HODL


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    #1886
    weemcd
    Registered Users Posts: 6,414 ✭✭✭weemcd


    zackory wrote: »
    HODL

    Might even start buying dips soon...


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    #1887
    seannash
    Registered Users Posts: 5,672 ✭✭✭seannash


    Jackben75 wrote: »
    the techlead guy also expects tether to imminently crash. I am a bit skeptical on him in general.
    I like his humour in his videos. He does present a lot of facts as well so I dont rubbish his opinion but I don't take it as gospel.


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    #1888
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,733 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    It looks like China has once again spooked the markets with another of it's little tantrums based on it's never ending struggle in trying to exert total control over money. At a guess I'd say they are terrified at the prospect of their new e-Yuan co-existing on an exchange with bitcoin, which could have resulted in a capital flight super highway - capital flight being a raging beast they have been trying to keep caged and tranqued forever.

    Meanwhile, several US states are currently trying to attract Crypto miners and are offering low taxes and abundant cheap green energy for them. Looks like a no-brainer to me. The biggest problem these miners likely face is the Covid meltdown of China's main container handling port and terminal which has global shipping in an inflation fueling tiz at the moment. Getting things out of China looks like a big issue.

    Funny how little this Covid outbreak among Yantian shipping terminal workers in China seems to feature in the news. The usual Chinese lies abound - all fix soon. So much for the 'we are free of Covid' face China has been trying to sell the world on.

    It's pretty much a perfect bear wave at the moment and negative sentiment will last as long as it takes these large mining operations to relocate and ramp up again.

    Sentiment may not improve until the miner relocation picture becomes clearer.


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    #1889
    Dohnjoe
    Registered Users Posts: 17,783 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    weemcd wrote: »
    Might even start buying dips soon...

    I wouldn't touch it until we are months into this. If this settles into a bear, then prices should go much lower, I'd be aiming for sub 500 Eth and sub 20k BTC


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    #1890
    HGVRHKYY
    Registered Users Posts: 404 ✭✭HGVRHKYY


    Dohnjoe wrote: »
    I wouldn't touch it until we are months into this. If this settles into a bear, then prices should go much lower, I'd be aiming for sub 500 Eth and sub 20k BTC

    Only way that'll happen is if we've seen the cycle top ($64k) already and then stay in an actual bear market until the next cycle is expected (2024 halving). I highly doubt we'll get that low, and think it's much more likely we'll just bounce around like this until later in the year and recover into next year. Would be really surprising for so many people to be so wrong and expectations fall so short that $64k is the highest we get for a few years


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    #1891
    OEP
    Registered Users Posts: 1,149 ✭✭✭OEP


    HGVRHKYY wrote: »
    Only way that'll happen is if we've seen the cycle top ($64k) already and then stay in an actual bear market until the next cycle is expected (2024 halving). I highly doubt we'll get that low, and think it's much more likely we'll just bounce around like this until later in the year and recover into next year. Would be really surprising for so many people to be so wrong and expectations fall so short that $64k is the highest we get for a few years

    What do you mean?


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