Reports of a military coup in Myanmar

shanec1928

Having been to Myanmar several times for work it’s sad to see what’s happening. The situation seems to be rapidly changing from the updates we’re getting. The cyber security bill is worrying of all the extra control that they are taking.

Brussels Sprout

Things seem to have taken a turn for the worse here. 38 protestors killed the other day.

Tokyo

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Things seem to have taken a turn for the worse here. 38 protestors killed the other day.

Mostly teenagers, all unarmed and protesting peacefully. The pretense at a measured response took a definite turn as of last Sunday.

biko

That's some draconian stuff Tokyo.
I assume it's unlikely someone will step in considering China is next door?

Tokyo

biko wrote: »

That's some draconian stuff Tokyo.
I assume it's unlikely someone will step in considering China is next door?

I'm sure that China will be more than happy to step in, but not in the capacity that most would hope. As for the global response, it has been lukewarm at best. Either carefully measured words, or responses from organizations that are toothless in a fight like this.

The military government's official response to the thread of sanctions has been 'We have to learn to walk with only a few friends' which shows they aren't going to back down in the foreseeable future. Things are going to get far worse here IMO before they get better.

shanec1928

Tokyo wrote: »

I'm sure that China will be more than happy to step in, but not in the capacity that most would hope. As for the global response, it has been lukewarm at best. Either carefully measured words, or responses from organizations that are toothless in a fight like this.

The military government's official response to the thread of sanctions has been 'We have to learn to walk with only a few friends' which shows they aren't going to back down in the foreseeable future. Things are going to get far worse here IMO before they get better.

China have long ago stepped in they support the junta. They have already been providing support implementing the great firewall.

timmyntc

shanec1928 wrote: »

China have long ago stepped in they support the junta. They have already been providing support implementing the great firewall.

Really?

It makes sense from a strategic POV (access to Indian Ocean) but I wasn't aware of any actual interference from the Chinese.

Tokyo

shanec1928 wrote: »

China have long ago stepped in they support the junta. They have already been providing support implementing the great firewall.

That is anecdotal at best.

There have been rumors going around for the past month that the junta are flying in planes full of Chinese IT specialists (alongside the planes full of Chinese infantry dressed as Myanmar police, to name a few). The evidence is overwhelmingly against that. As is common sense - who needs a firewall when they're just turning off the entire internet every evening, or for days at a time at their whim.

yagan

If anything the junta is paranoid about China. When I last travelled in Myanmar you feel their control ebb the closer you got to the Chinese border. For instance I couldn't access my email when in Yangon, but when I was in Shan state I had no problem.

It was weird to be in a country where the further away you got from the capitol the easier it was to contact the outside world.

To send messages from Yangon the cheaper and quicker option was telegram as the emails you were allowed send had to be via an official government domain and on average it was taking three days for them to be censored before being allowed to go.

A dollar an email, but just a few lines via telegram got to Ireland the next day for 60c!

When I was there they'd just kicked out the north Korean delegation for passing off forged $100 bills and had also halted a Chinese development in the capital due to such issues as Shan state. The only nation that seemed favoured was South Korea as their high energy action movies were a hit.

Edit to add that even my telegram was censored because I had written "can not access email". The teller gave back the slip and told me "not true, you get government email". I shrugged and just crossed out that line.

ohnonotgmail

yagan wrote: »

If anything the junta is paranoid about China. When I last travelled in Myanmar you feel their control ebb the closer you got to the Chinese border. For instance I couldn't access my email when in Yangon, but when I was in Shan state I had no problem.

It was weird to be in a country where the further away you got from the capitol the easier it was to contact the outside world.

To send messages from Yangon the cheaper and quicker option was telegram as the emails you were allowed send had to be via an official government domain and on average it was taking three days for them to be censored before being allowed to go.

A dollar an email, but just a few lines via telegram got to Ireland the next day for 60c!

When I was there they'd just kicked out the north Korean delegation for passing off forged $100 bills and had also halted a Chinese development in the capital due to such issues as Shan state. The only nation that seemed favoured was South Korea as their high energy action movies were a hit.

Edit to add that even my telegram was censored because I had written "can not access email". The teller gave back the slip and told me "not true, you get government email". I shrugged and just crossed out that line.

can you clarify what you mean by Telegram? the app or actual telegrams?

yagan

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

can you clarify what you mean by Telegram? the app or actual telegrams?

I mean actual telegram, pencil, piece of paper, using the word "stop" rather than dot. Pre smartphone days.

I didn't see what it looked like on arrival in Ireland, I believe it was simply printed word for word on a card, put in an An Post envelope and delivered in the post the next day.

On the pavements outside the postoffice there were people sitting with typewriters typing out translated messages in English and other languages for people wanting to send telegrams abroad. The discarded messages left on the writing benches in the post office showed offers of teak for sale etc...

I don't think the post office itself had changed since the British left.

It was fascinating to meet older people who spoke with the perfect clipped queens English they had learned in a civil service run by those who'd served under British rule.

Fascinating country but outside influence, be it western or eastern was very heavily restricted.

Edit to add I read George Orwell's book Burmese Days while I was there and superficially it really felt like not much had changed since it was written.

shanec1928

Tokyo wrote: »

That is anecdotal at best.

There have been rumors going around for the past month that the junta are flying in planes full of Chinese IT specialists (alongside the planes full of Chinese infantry dressed as Myanmar police, to name a few). The evidence is overwhelmingly against that. As is common sense - who needs a firewall when they're just turning off the entire internet every evening, or for days at a time at their whim.

That’s what I’ve been told from my colleague’s in Myanmar. They are definitely tinkering away in the background at things. Different sites are getting blocked and unblocked daily.

yagan

shanec1928 wrote: »

That’s what I’ve been told from my colleague’s in Myanmar. They are definitely tinkering away in the background at things. Different sites are getting blocked and unblocked daily.

They were doing that to the Chinese and everyone else when I was there.

The only country that seemed to get a pass was South Korea. Maybe it was a mutual suffering under Japan that made them acceptable.

Tokyo

shanec1928 wrote: »

That’s what I’ve been told from my colleague’s in Myanmar. They are definitely tinkering away in the background at things. Different sites are getting blocked and unblocked daily.

The same colleagues will likely tell you about the planes of missiles being flown in from China five times per day, and that the lighter skinned 'Chinese' looking uniformed police are actually Chinese infiltrators, despite a high percentage of Burmese people having Chinese heritage, and so on.

Animosity towards the Chinese has always been thinly veiled here, and the coup has created a breeding ground for anti-Chinese sentiment to flourish, as evidenced by huge protests outside the Chinese embassy (when it was still possible to get near the embassy). Different sites are NOT getting blocked and unblocked daily. I would argue the opposite. Prior to the coup, ISPs were ordered to filter various sites, namely pornography, news sites and so on. Since the coup, all that has been ignored - ISPs are instead just switching on and off the entire internet at the whim of the military each day. The only site I noticed issue with was Facebook, and messenger didn't work (they were being used as tools to spread CDM information), but that seems to have resolved itself. The bigger issue is the internet in its entirety being taken down for sometimes days at a time.

For sure, lots of things don't load well during the day, or load at impossibly slow speeds, but that's down to literally millions of people live-streaming the protests, police and military movements, riots and so on over an already horrifically overloaded network, rather than dozens of Chinese hackers pecking away at keyboards somewhere.

yagan

Tokyo wrote: »

The same colleagues will likely tell you about the planes of missiles being flown in from China five times per day, and that the lighter skinned 'Chinese' looking uniformed police are actually Chinese infiltrators, despite a high percentage of Burmese people having Chinese heritage, and so on.

Animosity towards the Chinese has always been thinly veiled here, and the coup has created a breeding ground for anti-Chinese sentiment to flourish, as evidenced by huge protests outside the Chinese embassy (when it was still possible to get near the embassy). Different sites are NOT getting blocked and unblocked daily. I would argue the opposite. Prior to the coup, ISPs were ordered to filter various sites, namely pornography, news sites and so on. Since the coup, all that has been ignored - ISPs are instead just switching on and off the entire internet at the whim of the military each day. The only site I noticed issue with was Facebook, and messenger didn't work (they were being used as tools to spread CDM information), but that seems to have resolved itself. The bigger issue is the internet in its entirety being taken down for sometimes days at a time.

For sure, lots of things don't load well during the day, or load at impossibly slow speeds, but that's down to literally millions of people live-streaming the protests, police and military movements, riots and so on over an already horrifically overloaded network, rather than dozens of Chinese hackers pecking away at keyboards somewhere.

So may people are so caught up in the anglosphere media that they overlook Asia having its own geopolitics too where borders tend to be a lot lot harder than what we're used to.

Allies of Taiwan who criticise China for its Tibet claim overlook that the ROC also still claims Tibet!

The Chinese I knew in Yangon all had an escape routes planned in case the junta felt a sudden need for a crack down on minorities. Obviously its muslims in recent years but ethnic Chinese and Indian have felt the juntas boot in the past.

Kivaro

Tokyo wrote: »

Mostly teenagers, all unarmed and protesting peacefully. The pretense at a measured response took a definite turn as of last Sunday.

The military dictatorship specifically focused warnings at teenagers a number of days ago, and it looks like they followed through with their threats. Despicable actions from a junta that needs to be removed by all means necessary.

yagan

Kivaro wrote: »

The military dictatorship specifically focused warnings at teenagers a number of days ago, and it looks like they followed through with their threats. Despicable actions from a junta that needs to be removed by all means necessary.

A Thai businessman in Yangon explained to me that Myanmar is so insular that if there was any incursion by any foreign power it would only reorientate the masses behind the military.

When I was there some Myanmar states were actually at war with eachother over logging and mining rights along borders. You'd only find out which states you could enter on a day by day basis depending on how negotiations were progressing.

There was even a border closure over the cost of maintenance for a nat god shrine, and they have over 40 nat gods!

igCorcaigh

A bloody day in Myanmar.

I'm trying to understand the situation, as I know nothing about it.

But the outrage doesn't seem to be unanimous across the globe:

In the locked-down capital, Naypyidaw, senior generals gathered for a military parade, with representatives from their few staunch allies, including China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand, Reuters reported.

Moscow sent its deputy defence minister Alexander Fomin, the most senior envoy there, and Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the junta leader, hailed Russia as a “true friend”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/27/more-than-100-killed-as-myanmar-junta-unleashes-worst-day-of-terror

Anyone with more knowledge care to inform me of what's going on?

bodice ripper

igCorcaigh wrote: »

A bloody day in Myanmar.

I'm trying to understand the situation, as I know nothing about it.

But the outrage doesn't seem to be unanimous across the globe:



Anyone with more knowledge care to inform me of what's going on?

Other than to say my dad, who is in Yangon also repeated this, and said there visible black smoke from barricades...

igCorcaigh

bodice ripper wrote: »

Other than to say my dad, who is in Yangon also repeated this, and said there visible black smoke from barricades...

Hope your Dad is safe.

Are you in touch with him?
Are communications OK?

Mike/Tokyo hasn't added much recently?
Is there still internet access from him?

bodice ripper

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Hope your Dad is safe.

Are you in touch with him?
Are communications OK?

Mike/Tokyo hasn't added much recently?
Is there still internet access from him?

I am sporadically in touch with him. Both the US embassy and the Irish embassy in Thailand have written to him to say "shelter in place", which doesn't feel overly helpful. He is in his mid to late sixties and has various health issues. It's all pretty dreadful.

igCorcaigh

bodice ripper wrote: »

I am sporadically in touch with him. Both the US embassy and the Irish embassy in Thailand have written to him to say "shelter in place", which doesn't feel overly helpful. He is in his mid to late sixties and has various health issues. It's all pretty dreadful.

It's best to bunker down till the worst passes, I would imagine.
The people on the streets are very brave, but I wonder how wise it is to do that now?

igCorcaigh

I've gone down a bit of a rabbit hole in my 10 minute search on Myanmar history (I'm now an expert!), but do the current coup/military leaders follow from the tradition of the Burmese Way to Socialism:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burmese_Way_to_Socialism

Could that go in any way to answer my previous question of how "the outrage doesn't seem to be unanimous across the globe"?

Tokyo

bodice ripper wrote: »

I am sporadically in touch with him. Both the US embassy and the Irish embassy in Thailand have written to him to say "shelter in place", which doesn't feel overly helpful. He is in his mid to late sixties and has various health issues. It's all pretty dreadful.

PM me with your father's details if you wish, or I can give my contact details to you via PM. I am out in the streets somewhere most days and I also have a good network of people here - if he needs anything, or if he needs food/medicine/supplies delivered to his home, he's free to contact me.

Tokyo

igCorcaigh wrote: »

A bloody day in Myanmar.

I'm trying to understand the situation, as I know nothing about it.

What would you like to know. Am happy to fill in the details as far as I know them.

igCorcaigh wrote: »

But the outrage doesn't seem to be unanimous across the globe:

It's a story as old as time - many of the countries listed above have either invested in the country, or have strong economic ties to the country, and have rolled the dice on which side will benefit them in the long run in terms of their support. Russia for example, has strong ties to the military and supply much of their weaponry (I believe China supplies light arms too). China has billions invested in Myanmar, in particular the Sino-Myanmar oil and gas pipelines that run across the country from Sittwe to Kunming (which protesters are now threatening to blow up). Many other countries have lent their support though, either verbally or through actions or sanctions of some sort.

Many are being killed now simply because the veil has dropped. In the early days of the coup (February), there was at least a pretense at restraint by the military and security forces, and the death toll was reasonably low. You kill enough people though, and the need to feign restraint becomes less. It’s the Tiananmen response. The problem now is that the stakes are raised: killing people is something that won’t be forgotten and there will be those who want justice for years to come. The military leadership is fully cognizant of this, which is why, from their vantage point, they have to stay in power using any means necessary, including mass slaughter. Yesterday alone, over 100 people were killed (one guy was shot in the leg about 30 feet away from me but survived), and depending on the area in which you live, tear gas and rubber bullets (and now live ammunition) is now a part of the daily routine. Military and security forces are all dosed with yaba to deaden emotions, and any sort of wariness of action towards foreigners here has disappeared since the beginning of March. I'm somewhat active with local friends in all of this, and the concern around getting shot is quite genuine. My area has been particularly dangerous in the past few weeks as it was ground zero for protesting, and as a result, the 77th light infantry were called in and based themselves here - the same 77th light infantry who murdered, raped and tortured their way through Rakhine State while exterminating the Rohingya, so you can imagine what their response here is like.

Reports from the northern states aren't making international news yet it seems - friends of mine last night were messaging me asking for advice, because the military are searching homes for able bodied men to force them to fight - my friend's brothers spent last night sleeping in the jungle behind their home, and will be seeking out the local militia today to seek refuge.

Ultimately the country is heading towards civil war. Myanmar is made up of 14 states and divisions, many of which have been claiming independence for years, and have their own military forces (for example, the Karen National Union (KNU)) and Kachin Independence Army (KIA)) which have been legitimized since the coup and are now in the process of joining forces against the Tatmadaw.

That's just glossing over it - there's so many things going on here (children being indiscriminately shot, bodies of the dead being stolen by the military, etc) that it would be too much for one post.

OneEightSeven

Tokyo wrote: »

As to my own personal situation, I'm not married, don't have kids, so that only person I have to consider in all this is myself. That being said, here has been home for quite a while, and the people I am close to are here and it wouldn't sit well with me to just walk away from them like that. So I'll be staying.

Tokyo wrote: »

Ultimately the country is heading towards civil war. Myanmar is made up of 14 states and divisions, many of which have been claiming independence for years, and have their own military forces (for example, the Karen National Union (KNU)) and Kachin Independence Army (KIA)) which have been legitimized since the coup and are now in the process of joining forces against the Tatmadaw.

That's just glossing over it - there's so many things going on here (children being indiscriminately shot, bodies of the dead being stolen by the military, etc) that it would be too much for one post.

Since you believe a civil war is inevitable, have you changed your mind about staying? Simon Coveney is urging Irish citizens to leave now: https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0327/1206471-myanmar-military-warning-parade/

Tokyo

OneEightSeven wrote: »

Since you believe a civil war is inevitable, have you changed your mind about staying? Simon Coveney is urging Irish citizens to leave now: https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0327/1206471-myanmar-military-warning-parade/

I saw that earlier. As of now, my position hasn't changed with respect to staying.

Kivaro

Based on yesterday's series of atrocities, the Myanmar military junta have gone all in; they are now literally fighting for their own lives and will do anything to stay in power. The military-run State media warned the citizens of the country a couple of days ago that demonstrators would be shot in the heads and backs, and it has indeed come to pass.

Saw a report this morning on Al Jazeera of a family burying their dead child in secrecy for fear of getting arrested or the child's body being stolen by the military. The child was shot dead by the military while sitting on her father's lap ........ in her own home. The depravity by the military and police is appalling.

namloc1980

The videos of what's going on in Myanmar are the most depraved and shocking things I think I've ever seen. Beyond horrific what's going on there.

Tokyo

Kivaro wrote: »

Based on yesterday's series of atrocities, the Myanmar military junta have gone all in; they are now literally fighting for their own lives and will do anything to stay in power. The military-run State media warned the citizens of the country a couple of days ago that demonstrators would be shot in the heads and backs, and it has indeed come to pass.

Saw a report this morning on Al Jazeera of a family burying their dead child in secrecy for fear of getting arrested or the child's body being stolen by the military. The child was shot dead by the military while sitting on her father's lap ........ in her own home. The depravity by the military and police is appalling.

The military have pretty much gone to town on protesters. Yesterday was National Armed Services Day, an obviously military-centric celebration, and as a result, responses were particularly lethal yesterday.

The state-run Myanmar Radio and Television did air on Friday night the following thinly veiled threat - "You should take lessons from earlier ugly deaths, that you could be in danger of getting shot in the head and back. Don’t be misled, boys and girls!” and followed through on that with reckless abandon. Some of the casualties have been as young as 5 years old, or still in the womb if you include the pregnant woman they shot in the head two weeks ago. Bodies are being stolen by the military - either on the spot or by besieging funerals, presumably to delete evidence of military grade ammunition being used. Families have received bodies back minus their organs, others have received nothing at all.

namloc1980 wrote: »

The videos of what's going on in Myanmar are the most depraved and shocking things I think I've ever seen. Beyond horrific what's going on there.

It's hard to find videos that aren't very bloody depictions of children or protesters being maimed or killed TBH. But as a sample:

Yesterday, in Dawei:

First Aiders being beaten by police: