What exactly is happening with AstraZeneca?

Call me Al

Gavin Lee has just reported on BBC that when AZ experienced supply issues in the UK they back filled the shortage with EU-manufactured stock that has already been paid for by the EU.

The EU expect the reverse to now be done to honour their contractual obligations. And that they are extremely adamant there is no "best efforts" strings attached to their contract.

So it seems to me that the EU are not going to back down on this..

NeuralNetwork

From what I can see of it the issue seems to be one of perceived lack of transparency. The company seems to have tried to put a positive spin on a production shortage and did not keep the European Commission in the loop on what was going on and has basically dropped a bombshell with regards to production capacity at the last minute.

I have a sense that they're all in paranoid competition mode instead of treating this is a major emergency and finding all the production capacity possible.

The EU, in my opinion, should be working to ensure things like perhaps conversion of production capacity owned by other companies who've huge facilities, far more experience in this area, and unsuccessful vaccine candidates e.g. Sanofi, GSK or anyone else are strongly encouraged to licence one of the successful products and just ramp up scale.

The Commission's role here could be one of acting as facilitator to get those glitches ironed out. Instead they seem to be heading into a conflict with a pharma company.

The other aspect is that these are biologics plants, and they are notoriously difficult to get started smoothly. It's a process far more like brewing than production of widgets as you're basically growing large vats (bioreactors) full of various biological agents and going through steps to assemble and purify them. It is nothing like producing widgets and if a production cycle goes wrong due to some unforeseen issue with biology, that's what happens. It's not just stamping out car parts or making chemical based pharmaceuticals.

I think we risk a showdown with the lawyers instead of just getting a pragmatic solution based on the real problems. It needs absolute transparency from the producers' side and calm and reasoned decision making on the political side.

This should not be a case of a vaccine producer and the European Commission going head-to-head, rather there should be pragmatic cooperation and working on a massive EU-wide and global health emergency.

I'm unimpressed with both sides of this. These are extraordinary times and it's not a transaction about paperclips.

9db3xj7z41fs5u

I agree in one sense with a previous poster about getting the solicitors involved.

On the other hand, the EU is fighting for its citizens lives. And it shouldn’t allow itself to be walked over by some multinational corporation. Actions have consequences. They entered a fair deal. They said that they would deliver. They did not. If they lie down to AZ, they will set a precedent.

HalfAndHalf

Evan Rich Storefront wrote: »

Ultimately, AZ need the EU market. We are their best customers. And even after the Covid pandemic ends, they will be reliant on us

This is completely made up! The US are their biggest market, followed by China then the EU.

Did you actually research this ‘reliant’ claim or are you just getting carried away

9db3xj7z41fs5u

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

This is completely made up! The US are their biggest market, followed by China then the EU.

Did you actually research this ‘reliant’ claim or are you just getting carried away

The EU is second worldwide. You can check it out. I wouldn’t like to seriously piss off my 2nd biggest customer.

Are you trying to patronise because you don’t like the arguments that I make?

Donald Trump

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

The EU, in my opinion, should be working to ensure things like perhaps conversion of production capacity owned by other companies who've huge facilities, far more experience in this area, and unsuccessful vaccine candidates e.g. Sanofi, GSK or anyone else are strongly encouraged to licence one of the successful products and just ramp up scale.

The Commission's role here could be one of acting as facilitator to get those glitches ironed out. Instead they seem to be heading into a conflict with a pharma company.

Is that not kinda what they (tried to) do though - prefunded AZ so that they could put things into production quickly?


If they are going to let AZ away with it, why would GSK or others do any different? EU gives GSK a billion upfront to get facilities converted/in-place and sure once they have it up and running GSK decide to ship the product elsewhere

Dyr

Sounds like the commission were caught with their pants down and are now spinning against AZ, if they had a case, they wouldnt be fluting around briefing journos, it would be legal teams. Good luck having the English factory send doses to the EU.

Our man in Europe, Tony Connelly, quoting anonymous sources in the EU with no mention of a response from AZ. Quality stuff.

9db3xj7z41fs5u

Evan Rich Storefront wrote: »

The EU is second worldwide. You can check it out. I wouldn’t like to seriously piss off my 2nd biggest customer.

Are you trying to patronise because you don’t like the arguments that I make?

22% constitutes a best customer in my simple world

9db3xj7z41fs5u

Bambi wrote: »

Sounds like the commission were caught with their pants down and are now spinning against AZ, if they had a case, they wouldnt be fluting around briefing journos, it would be legal teams. Good luck having the English factory send doses to the EU.

Our man in Europe, Tony Connelly, quoting anonymous sources in the EU with no mention of a response from AZ. Quality stuff.

Caught with their pants down? Do give a reasoned argument, stating the facts that lead you to such a conclusion?

We paid. They failed to deliver. Simple.

NeuralNetwork

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

This is completely made up! The US are their biggest market, followed by China then the EU.

Did you actually research this ‘reliant’ claim or are you just getting carried away

Actually their largest sales are in emerging markets ($8.165bn), then the US ($7737bn), then the Europe ($4350bn) and then established rest of world markets ($3303bn).

That's just the shape of their business though, it's nothing to do with the scale of the markets.

The EU is, however, the world's second largest pharmaceuticals market. So it's not really one to pick a fight with for any pharma company.

However, it's also not the European Commission that normally does the purchasing of pharmaceuticals, rather it's public health providers and private customers across European countries. So it's not exactly a threat either.

Nor is the EMA going to take any political position on licensing. It's very deliberately isolated from all of that and is a purely technical body.

So, to be quite honest it's just a rather unseemly misunderstanding and is probably serving neither side's interests as they should both be working on solutions to this.

RugbyLad11

Evan Rich Storefront wrote: »

22% constitutes a best customer in my simple world

But that's counting the UK...

9db3xj7z41fs5u

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

But that's counting the UK...

I was referring to pharmaceutical markets

Nope. Find enclosed the figures from 2019. Add France, Italy, Germany and Spain. We overtake China. Your fact is false

Hurrache

Bambi wrote: »

Sounds like the commission were caught with their pants down and are now spinning against AZ, if they had a case, they wouldnt be fluting around briefing journos, it would be legal teams.

You too going with this bizarre take?

HalfAndHalf

Evan Rich Storefront wrote: »

The EU is second worldwide. You can check it out. I wouldn’t like to seriously piss off my 2nd biggest customer.

Are you trying to patronise because you don’t like the arguments that I make?

Nope, just pointing out your statement saying they need us we’re there biggest customer is completely wrong.

In one pair you’ve changed your mind to us now being the second biggest market, but as I said, you’re still wrong we’re 3rd

Plus emerging markets now make up 36% or so of their market base so 3rd all of a sudden doesn’t make them reliant on us at all.

So the big talk of them needing us actually becomes laughable.

RugbyLad11

Evan Rich Storefront wrote: »

Nope. Find enclosed the figures from 2019. Add France, Italy, Germany and Spain. We overtake China. Your fact is false

What fact? I'm just saying your screenshot is including the UK in the stat.

Pete_Cavan

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

From what I can see of it the issue seems to be one of perceived lack of transparency. The company seems to have tried to put a positive spin on a production shortage and did not keep the European Commission in the loop on what was going on and has basically dropped a bombshell with regards to production capacity at the last minute.

I have a sense that they're all in paranoid competition mode instead of treating this is a major emergency and finding all the production capacity possible.

The EU, in my opinion, should be working to ensure things like perhaps conversion of production capacity owned by other companies who've huge facilities, far more experience in this area, and unsuccessful vaccine candidates e.g. Sanofi, GSK or anyone else are strongly encouraged to licence one of the successful products and just ramp up scale.

The Commission's role here could be one of acting as facilitator to get those glitches ironed out. Instead they seem to be heading into a conflict with a pharma company.

Trying to push them to outsource production of the vaccine, thereby benefiting their competitors over whom they have an advantage, would also have put thrm into conflict with the company. AZ had the golden goose and were very unlikely to share it with others.

AZ have over promised and under delivered, they should have been more upfront about it. Instead they stayed quietand tried to juggle everything but it came crashing down on them. Pfizer were upfront and the EU accepted it as an unavoidable issue.

9db3xj7z41fs5u

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Nope, just pointing out your statement saying they need us we’re there biggest customer is completely wrong.

In one pair you’ve changed your mind to us now being the second biggest market, but as I said, you’re still wrong we’re 3rd

Plus emerging markets now make up 36% or so of their market base so 3rd all of a sudden doesn’t make them reliant on us at all.

So the big talk of them needing us actually becomes laughable.

See enclosed my reference before stating that I am wrong re: 2nd. And then if you still believe, I would appreciate a high quality reference to counter this.

Europe has the advantage of being interconnected as a market. Furthermore, it is relatively stable. Why would you alienate this market?

NeuralNetwork

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Trying to push them to outsource production of the vaccine, thereby benefiting their competitors over whom they have an advantage, would also have put thrm into conflict with the company.

AZ have over promised and under delivered, they should have been more upfront about it. Instead they stayed quietand tried to juggle everything but it came crashing down on them. Pfizer were upfront and the EU accepted it as an unavoidable issue.

The problem is they blindsided the EU and public health authorities who were preparing for a vaccine rollout.

They need to solve it.

I don't think AZ is all that bothered about outsourcing to be quite honest either. Their product is being produced at rather tiny margins relative to most of the others.

Also compared to some of the others they're not really hugely in this space and aren't even in the top 10 pharma companies.

1. J&J
2. Pfizer
3. Roche
4 Novartis
5. Merck & Co (US)
6. GSK
7. Sanofi
8 AbbVie
9. Takeda
10. Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding.

From what I can see of it you've a relatively smaller pharmaceuticals company, in a mass public ordering scenario that's something that's more familiar territory for the likes of Pfizer, GSK or Sanofi etc and a European Commission taking its first steps into deal with a massive pharma order.

The European Commission does not have background in doing this kind of thing, even if they're pulling in expertise from member states, which I would assume they are.

When you start scaling things up to hundreds of millions and billions of doses to be delivered in short time scales, very few companies have any experience of this other than the big traditional vaccine makers and there are but a handful of those.

Dempo1

fly_agaric wrote: »

If people want to sneer at Europa links or the public statements by EU commission, well the company CEO would not seem to be an impartial source on the matter.

I don't think anyone knows how this will end.

Hopefully the EU will be able to extract some retribution on our behalf if we've been swindled. That would be to all our benefit.

So now it appears the EU are asking for some of Britain's stock? This is just becoming absurd. I can just see Boris delivering them to Ursula personally. Whatever about who's right or wrong, it's a supply issue, get over it. Politicians need to cop on and stop making widely ambitious promises. Our own Minister for health now rowing back on promises albeit he doesn't call them that.

9db3xj7z41fs5u

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

What fact? I'm just saying your screenshot is including the UK in the stat.

Even excluding the UK, the EU market outstrips China

HalfAndHalf

Evan Rich Storefront wrote: »

See enclosed my reference before stating that I am wrong re: 2nd. And then if you still believe, I would appreciate a high quality reference to counter this.

Europe has the advantage of being interconnected as a market. Furthermore, it is relatively stable. Why would you alienate this market?

https://news.sky.com/story/why-astrazenecas-39bn-swoop-is-proving-hard-for-some-to-swallow-12161415

Here!

You’re completely missing the point!

Your post was one of bravado stating we’re their biggest customer and they need us. In other words, we can bully you so do what we tell you.

This is false. As I stated.

HalfAndHalf

Evan Rich Storefront wrote: »

Even excluding the UK, the EU market outstrips China

Stop posting 2 year old data to prove your incorrect posts please.

9db3xj7z41fs5u

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/why-astrazenecas-39bn-swoop-is-proving-hard-for-some-to-swallow-12161415

Here!

You’re completely missing the point!

Your post was one of bravado stating we’re their biggest customer and they need us. In other words, we can bully you so do what we tell you.

This is false. As I stated.

I said best, not biggest. You stated that I was wrong in saying 2nd. I was simply fact-checking your statement

9db3xj7z41fs5u

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Stop posting 2 year old data to prove your incorrect posts please.

Well where are your references so? Science is about data. Back up your statements

Also, on false statements: this data is from 2019. 2021 is currently happening, so data won’t be available for that until 2022. Also, it’s January. So data for 2020 is still being collated, and not currently available. So, despite your misinterpretation, this is the latest data.

HalfAndHalf

Evan Rich Storefront wrote: »

I said best, not biggest. You stated that I was wrong in saying 2nd. I was simply fact-checking your statement

What are you on about! Best/biggest, whatever, you meant they make the most money out of the EU market so they need us blah blah blah.

I have posted a link to the sky news article from ONE MONTH AGO where it clearly states China have overtaken Europe as the 2nd biggest customer.

You’re wrong, why not admit your initial post was rubbish bravado chest puffing and move on. Instead you’re now running rings around yourself trying to defend misleading people.

HalfAndHalf

Evan Rich Storefront wrote: »

Well where are your references so? Science is about data. Back up your statements

As I said. I’ve posted a link to the sky news article from last month for your perusal.

You weren’t talking about science you were talking about market size. The only data that matters there is money! Stop being silly now please.

NeuralNetwork

This will be resolved over the coming days and weeks, but I think facts need to be on the table, heads need to be cool and pragmatism restored.

Pete_Cavan

Dempo1 wrote: »

So now it appears the EU are asking for some of Britain's stock? This is just becoming absurd. I can just see Boris delivering them to Ursula personally. Whatever about who's right or wrong, it's a supply issue, get over it. Politicians need to cop on and stop making widely ambitious promises. Our own Minister for health now rowing back on promises albeit he doesn't call them that.

The EU wants Britain's stock because Britain were given the EU's stock. Should the EU just accept a much slower vaccination program and associated deaths?

HalfAndHalf

Evan Rich Storefront wrote: »

Well where are your references so? Science is about data. Back up your statements

Also, on false statements: this data is from 2019. 2021 is currently happening, so data won’t be available for that until 2022. Also, it’s January. So data for 2020 is still being collated, and not currently available. So, despite your misinterpretation, this is the latest data.

So you’re not going to stop being silly then. Jesus I give up with ya!

NeuralNetwork

The way things are going Biden could well have the Defence Production Act type mechanism working on this in the USA and doing all sorts of cross-sourcing and outsourcing to maximise capacity, while the EU could well be fighting with shadows and rolling out lawyers.

This stuff needs to be treated as a pan-European emergency and resources enabled properly. All I'm seeing is a big fight.

One thing the EU could do is create a EU Pandemic Management Agency and actually resource it properly and that would require serious agreement from the member states. The piecemeal approach has not helped, as it's all been about reacting to member states' reactions when various countries tried to grab resources earlier on in the pandemic.